OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[wbrocks67]

Hm, wondering if he'll vote to convict now.

[wbrocks67]

God this is such an overrated race already. I guess it could flip if everything goes right for Democrats, as 2018 proves it’s still POSSIBLE for them to win in OH statewide, but does anyone seriously think they’ll flip a Senate seat in a Trump + 8 state that voted 13 points to the nation in an national in a Biden midterm?

That was with Trump on the ticket. I'm not saying Dems have an amazing chance here, but as we've seen in many places, Trump being on the ticket matters. I'd like to see what the margins are like here when he's not.

[wbrocks67]

Tim Ryan raised $2.2M in Q2.

[wbrocks67]

Ohio-senate is solid R with any Republican nominee not named Josh Mandel. Stop kidding yourselves.

Especially when democrats' main attack against Vance seems to be "he didn't like Trump enough"

no i think the main attack against Vance is that he's now a far-right nut bag

[wbrocks67]

If Josh Mandel is doing performance art then what is JD Vance doing? He's doing the same thing. It's clear Vance believes nothing he says.

[wbrocks67]

As much as I would hate a Dolan win because it would give Ohio Ds even a worse chance of winning than they already had, it would at least be a little refreshing to have someone non crazy versus the possibility of Vance or Mandel at this point

[wbrocks67]

As much as I would hate a Dolan win because it would give Ohio Ds even a worse chance of winning than they already had, it would at least be a little refreshing to have someone non crazy versus the possibility of Vance or Mandel at this point

It’s Ryan’s only chance of winning.  There would be high potential for a third party MAGA candidate and Trump certainly wouldn’t endorse Dolan.  Ryan is an A-list recruit running an excellent campaign who could definitely pull off a narrow victory in such a scenario, even in a Republican wave election.

Really? I considered Mandel to be the worst GE candidate of the 3 of them? If Dolan loses some MAGA votes in November, couldn't he offset that by grabbing some right leaning 'moderates'?

Mandel almost seems too far right & nutbaggy even for Ohio at this point. But then again I also thought that Vance was horrific as well for a GE, and people seem to think he'll do just fine?

[wbrocks67]

Dolan overtakes Vance by a single point in the final day of the rolling tracker, though the 3-day average still gives Vance a slight lead.

Do you guys happen to be tracking the PA race in the same way?

[wbrocks67]

actually, it's shameful to constantly defend the police as if they do nothing wrong. let's get honest and realistic about it.

[wbrocks67]

Damn. Well he's certainly Dems best possible chance.

[wbrocks67]

Had dinner with a Republican pollster friend (yes, I have them) last night - he is not polling for Vance but relayed that their numbers for a different client show Ryan gaining significant ground and that there is growing concern that the Vance team doesn't understand that they have a real fight on their hands. Majewski in the Toledo seat is apparently in the same boat and has not made any public appearances recently outside of right-wing podcasts and streaming channels - folks in the party are dreading what his fundraising numbers will be later today.

Don't worry, I cheered him up with plenty of the terrible numbers I've seen prettymuch everywhere else in the country.

What else are you seeing? Can you give us any general insights?

[wbrocks67]

Objectively I could see Ryan gaining ground right now.

Vance only raised $1M himself in Q2 - and then his joint fundraising committee raised another $1.2M. Still, that's $2.2M compared to the $9.1M Ryan raised.

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1547755814445727749

Not only that, but I'd have find the tweet - I think I saw that Ryan has been up with ads since the primary and has already dumped something like $6M on TV ads. Meanwhile, Vance has been totally dark on the airwaves.

So yeah, at this point in time, Ryan unsurprisingly has some of the upper hand since he's defining himself/Vance early while Vance is nowhere to be found

[wbrocks67]

Had dinner with a Republican pollster friend (yes, I have them) last night - he is not polling for Vance but relayed that their numbers for a different client show Ryan gaining significant ground and that there is growing concern that the Vance team doesn't understand that they have a real fight on their hands. Majewski in the Toledo seat is apparently in the same boat and has not made any public appearances recently outside of right-wing podcasts and streaming channels - folks in the party are dreading what his fundraising numbers will be later today.

Don't worry, I cheered him up with plenty of the terrible numbers I've seen prettymuch everywhere else in the country.

What else are you seeing? Can you give us any general insights?

One of the more interesting patterns we've started to pick up on is "frontline" Democrats are polling extraordinarily well right now (even in Trump seats) while many backbenchers in Biden +6-12 seats are polling the way you would be expecting frontliners to poll. The takeaway here is clearly that many backbenchers have lower name ID and have established less personal branding/separation from the national party than members in traditionally competitive seats. Most have plenty of money and face similarly undefined Republicans so would still rather be them than their opponents right now, but these are the types of races that can slip away fast.

Interesting. So someone like Elissa Slotkin is likely polling well because they've been forced to defend their brand for a few cycles now, while someone in a traditionally Likely D slot (maybe someone like Jennifer Wexton) is used to not doing as much, and losing a bit of ground?

It would seem as though swing voters/competitive district "moderates" seem to be okay with separating their reps from the national party/Biden right now, while possible voter apathy is higher in bluer districts?

[wbrocks67]

here's the concrete info - https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1548250998484807683

confirms Ryan has spent $6.4M on TV, Vance $0

[wbrocks67]

in terms of actual campaign operations, Vance may actually be running the worst campaign of the cycle

https://twitter.com/JimSwiftDC/status/1550216465302839297

[wbrocks67]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/inside-the-gop-freakout-over-jd-vances-senate-campaign?ref=home

Interesting article about JD Vance's dumpster fire of a campaign.

Good to see a return to the correct belief that the campaign doesn’t start until Labor Day. Summer politics is such a nuisance that it should be prohibited.

True, but if Ryan keeps on blasting Vance and defining him (and himself) all summer over the airwaves with no response to Vance, that is going to be extremely detrimental for Vance to come back from.

Especially in a moment where gas prices and inflation may actually continue to keep going down, so Vance should be hitting Ryan *right now* while these things are as big of an issue as they may be for the rest of the year.

[wbrocks67]

These R senate candidates really seem to be doing everything they can to possibly lose.

[wbrocks67]

Will be the ultimate lol if Democrats are willing to waste £70 million to McGrath but can’t get £10 million the Ohio Democratic Party to enable it to get some field organisers.

Tim Ryan literally just raised $9.1M alone last Q (vs $1M for Vance).... I think he'll be fine.

[wbrocks67]

Will be the ultimate lol if Democrats are willing to waste £70 million to McGrath but can’t get £10 million the Ohio Democratic Party to enable it to get some field organisers.

Tim Ryan literally just raised $9.1M alone last Q (vs $1M for Vance).... I think he'll be fine.

You’ll see I specified that money needs to go to the state party or people who know how to organise rather than just the campaigns or random super Pacs!

... and Tim Ryan has served in congress for what, two decades or something? I think his team probably knows how to organize.

[wbrocks67]

It's funny. At the start of the 2016 cycle, everyone thought Portman would face a really tough race against Ted Strickland so the NRSC earmarked a ton of money in anticipation of having to spend in the expensive state.

As it turns out, Portman ran such a good campaign (and Strickland ran such a bad one) that the race was effectively over by Labor Day, allowing millions of dollars to be freed up for states like MO, NC, PA and WI where other incumbent Republicans won by much narrower margins.

I wonder if the reverse happens, where Ryan's strong campaign and Vance's basically nonexistent one forces the NRSC to divert money from AZ/GA/NV/NH/PA/WI.

Well, and the crazy thing is, Vance and Oz, despite now both getting tons of negative stories from insiders for weeks now of having run bad campaigns so far, don't seem to be.... changing anything? Like if this was May or June, you'd be a little more understanding in them changing things around. And of course they still can, but it's August at this point, and neither campaigns seem to be really on a course correction yet.

[wbrocks67]

Vance finally going up on TV

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1554468831074164736

[wbrocks67]

Tim Ryan borrowing from the Fetterman playbook a bit

https://twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1554917093119770624

[wbrocks67]

If that Center Street PAC/Momentive AI poll is even remotely in the same universe of some reality, Vance is pushing those early "I'm just a nice guy from Ohio" ads bc he severely needs to clean up his image with voters.

Favs:
Tim Ryan: 48/23 (with 29% neutral)
JD Vance: 28/46 (with 27% neutral)

Those are some Dr Oz-like #s.

[wbrocks67]

Interesting that Thiel has yet to spend anything for Vance in the general.

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1559484697540976640

[wbrocks67]

Obviously worst ad ever /s

Genius.

Refreshing to see so many D candidates this cycle absolutely turn the tables on Rs.