OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[BuckeyeNut]

I don’t know whether Trump is just stupid, has useless advisers, or just naturally gravitates to other frauds. Vance is the most likely to lose a GE & the most likely to be disloyal should they both be in office together. Mandel, Timken actually believe in Trumpist lunacy, and Gibbons is a Rand Paul type who will go along with the isolationist stuff. Vance quite plainly believes in nothing, he’s like Lindsey Graham. There is literally no upside to this for Trump.

You clearly have very little knowledge about Vance or Ohio politics in general. Let me educate you briefly.

1. The Ohio senate race in the general election in Safe R. Not only is the state GOP by about 10 points generally, but it's a red wave midterm year. Whoever wins the GOP primary will win the general.

2. Vance is not the weakest candidate in the race. That quite easily goes to Mandel, who is well known for being fake and a fraud, in addition to being totally unserious. I can see why Timken or Gibbons might do better than Vance in a GE, but he's still not the weakest candidate.

3. Vance is very ideological, and more so than any other candidate in the race. While he may have joined it in the last 5 years, he really does hold a firm set of ideological convictions that fall under the National Conservative and Paleoconservative label. There's a reason why he is the favorite of ideologically driven right-wing institutions like Claremont, American Moment, and the American Conservative magazine, and why people like Tucker Carlson and Peter Thiel (who is very ideological himself and a known member of the National Conservative wing of the party) backed him very early on. Vance holds a very genuine ideology of paternalistic conservatism which is a far cry from the canned talking points and plastic nature of his opponents. There isn't a fake bone in his body, and even though he has drifted to where he is now over the past 5 years, it was a genuine shift and not driven out of political conformity. His conversion to Catholicism which occurred concurrently proves this.

Nevertheless, I am overjoyed that Vance received Trump's endorsement, and i'm enjoying the cope from left wingers and establishment Republicans alike.

If you think Vance (and Thiel) care about anything besides their bank accounts I pity you.

If you think Vance, who left his cushy position of influence in DC to run for senate to much scrutiny in his home state, is driven by financial gain... I actually pity YOU.

He’s not just driven by greed. He thinks the entire world should be subjected to arbitrary and grueling competition, especially the most downtrodden and disadvantaged. He also believes he is owed this senate seat because he believes the strong should dominate the weak, as you can read in his truly blasphemous and profane autobiography. And because he believes this, he also is happy to do the bidding of the powerful men who own him like Peter Thiel, and now apparently Donald Trump.

I want whatever MSNBC talking point pills you're smoking

Just read Vance's book. It's strange you haven't, given how much you profess to love him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs said themselves they want to nux the Filibuster in 24 to expunge Trump impeachment from the record and they're going after Brown if they win here in 22 the runner up Vance or Mandel will target Brown in 22 that's why Ryan needs to win here

There is nothing impressive about Vance

[Sir Mohamed]

The Rs said themselves they want to nux the Filibuster in 24 to expunge Trump impeachment from the record and they're going after Brown if they win here in 22 the runner up Vance or Mandel will target Brown in 22 that's why Ryan needs to win here

There is nothing impressive about Vance

This race is pretty much Safe R here.

[UncleSam]

I don’t know whether Trump is just stupid, has useless advisers, or just naturally gravitates to other frauds. Vance is the most likely to lose a GE & the most likely to be disloyal should they both be in office together. Mandel, Timken actually believe in Trumpist lunacy, and Gibbons is a Rand Paul type who will go along with the isolationist stuff. Vance quite plainly believes in nothing, he’s like Lindsey Graham. There is literally no upside to this for Trump.

You clearly have very little knowledge about Vance or Ohio politics in general. Let me educate you briefly.

1. The Ohio senate race in the general election in Safe R. Not only is the state GOP by about 10 points generally, but it's a red wave midterm year. Whoever wins the GOP primary will win the general.

2. Vance is not the weakest candidate in the race. That quite easily goes to Mandel, who is well known for being fake and a fraud, in addition to being totally unserious. I can see why Timken or Gibbons might do better than Vance in a GE, but he's still not the weakest candidate.

3. Vance is very ideological, and more so than any other candidate in the race. While he may have joined it in the last 5 years, he really does hold a firm set of ideological convictions that fall under the National Conservative and Paleoconservative label. There's a reason why he is the favorite of ideologically driven right-wing institutions like Claremont, American Moment, and the American Conservative magazine, and why people like Tucker Carlson and Peter Thiel (who is very ideological himself and a known member of the National Conservative wing of the party) backed him very early on. Vance holds a very genuine ideology of paternalistic conservatism which is a far cry from the canned talking points and plastic nature of his opponents. There isn't a fake bone in his body, and even though he has drifted to where he is now over the past 5 years, it was a genuine shift and not driven out of political conformity. His conversion to Catholicism which occurred concurrently proves this.

Nevertheless, I am overjoyed that Vance received Trump's endorsement, and i'm enjoying the cope from left wingers and establishment Republicans alike.

If you think Vance (and Thiel) care about anything besides their bank accounts I pity you.

If you think Vance, who left his cushy position of influence in DC to run for senate to much scrutiny in his home state, is driven by financial gain... I actually pity YOU.

He’s not just driven by greed. He thinks the entire world should be subjected to arbitrary and grueling competition, especially the most downtrodden and disadvantaged. He also believes he is owed this senate seat because he believes the strong should dominate the weak, as you can read in his truly blasphemous and profane autobiography. And because he believes this, he also is happy to do the bidding of the powerful men who own him like Peter Thiel, and now apparently Donald Trump.

I want whatever MSNBC talking point pills you're smoking

Just read Vance's book. It's strange you haven't, given how much you profess to love him.

Maybe I’m missing something, but isn’t competition good? It’s what the entire western economic system is built on - the idea that ‘the market decides’ and everybody needs to compete to determine their value / how much they get paid. I can’t think of any alternative that is more fair - you earn what you earn, essentially.

Certainly the capitalist system can be cruel / harsh and we should strive to ensure that those who are disadvantaged or not well equipped to ‘compete’ have a certain baseline standard of living, but that doesn’t detract from the fact that there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that philosophy.

I would also point out that that very philosophy is directly in conflict with the idea that he is ‘owed’ a senate seat. Where did you get that idea? You seem to have read his biography so I’d be interested to know how you reconcile claiming that Vance’s entire philosophy and his personal actions / beliefs are directly in conflict with one another. I would also question how you know what he is thinking so well, given you’ve prescribed him some fairly unkind thoughts with little evidence outside of ‘his philosophy is X, I read his biography’....when X philosophy actually points to a directly contradictory outcome.

Kind of makes it seem like you either did not understand his philosophy, or are willfully Mis-assigning capricious motivations to politicians that espouse opposing political beliefs. Perhaps that is not the case, but I’d love to hear more about your thought process.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs said themselves they want to nux the Filibuster in 24 to expunge Trump impeachment from the record and they're going after Brown if they win here in 22 the runner up Vance or Mandel will target Brown in 22 that's why Ryan needs to win here

There is nothing impressive about Vance

This race is pretty much Safe R here.

I don't believe approval number but Turnout model 110/150M votes

If Keynatta wanter has Morgan Harper and Charles Booker as endorsement I can have Tim Ryan there still hasn't been any MO or OH olls since Grietans was tied with  Sifton

[mtvoter]

Ohio is about to have the most populist Senate delegation in the country

OH delegation combined isn't even nearly as #populist as Jon Tester alone

[Schiff for Senate]

Ohio is about to have the most populist Senate delegation in the country

OH delegation combined isn't even nearly as #populist as Jon Tester alone

You need to calm down about Jon Tester's populism already.

[mtvoter]

Ohio is about to have the most populist Senate delegation in the country

OH delegation combined isn't even nearly as #populist as Jon Tester alone

You need to calm down about Jon Tester's populism already.

It'll be tough since I came to this forum just for the Tester memes

[BuckeyeNut]

Ohio is about to have the most populist Senate delegation in the country

lol, no. Vance was Portman's preferred choice to run against Brown in 2018 before he totally reversed course precisely because he's an elitist. Rhetoric aside, that has not changed.

Anyway, the Vance campaign is going great:

https://twitter.com/RawStory/status/1516115482218225665

https://twitter.com/darreldrowland/status/1516132572174381056?s=20&t=zo81F0k...

[Storr]

Bruh:

https://twitter.com/JoshforGeorgia/status/1516093390378741763?s=20&t=alCAp0I...

[Suburbia]

Vance is right.

A Vance-Ryan race is a tossup.

A Mandel-Ryan race is Lean D.

A Timken/Dolan/Gibbons race is Safe R.

I am fine with Vance in Congress, he may bridge the divide with the black working class and white working class. Don't be surprised if he appeals to Black pastors.

[LabourJersey]

Vance is right.

A Vance-Ryan race is a tossup.

A Mandel-Ryan race is Lean D.

A Timken/Dolan/Gibbons race is Safe R.

I am fine with Vance in Congress, he may bridge the divide with the black working class and white working class. Don't be surprised if he appeals to Black pastors.

I wish this was true but it absolutely is not.

Whoever wins the GOP primary is strongly, strongly favored to win.

[ElectionsGuy]

Don't expect Cook or any others out there to move this out of "Lean R" because in their view, Vance is the "weakest" candidate of all. What is attractive to Republicans and right-leaning independents is now antithetical to what professional class liberal pundits view as a "strong candidate" so naturally, they are going to massively underestimate just how Republican Ohio has become.

There's a better case to be made for Oz being a weak candidate, because he actually does have a substantial portion of the R base disliking him, and it's unclear if that'll heal before November.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Don't expect Cook or any others out there to move this out of "Lean R" because in their view, Vance is the "weakest" candidate of all. What is attractive to Republicans and right-leaning independents is now antithetical to what professional class liberal pundits view as a "strong candidate" so naturally, they are going to massively underestimate just how Republican Ohio has become.

There's a better case to be made for Oz being a weak candidate, because he actually does have a substantial portion of the R base disliking him, and it's unclear if that'll heal before November.

I feel like a lot of "experts" in the media will claim the Republican nominee will be the weakest no matter who it is. Trump could have endorsed Jane Timken and a lot of people would say that she was the worst candidate despite it clearly being Mandel.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Don't expect Cook or any others out there to move this out of "Lean R" because in their view, Vance is the "weakest" candidate of all. What is attractive to Republicans and right-leaning independents is now antithetical to what professional class liberal pundits view as a "strong candidate" so naturally, they are going to massively underestimate just how Republican Ohio has become.

There's a better case to be made for Oz being a weak candidate, because he actually does have a substantial portion of the R base disliking him, and it's unclear if that'll heal before November.

I feel like a lot of "experts" in the media will claim the Republican nominee will be the weakest no matter who it is. Trump could have endorsed Jane Timken and a lot of people would say that she was the worst candidate despite it clearly being Mandel.

But don't you know, a Liberal or Moderate is the most electooboole because "insert Establishment/Basement Caucus talking point "

[Canis]

Vance is right.

A Vance-Ryan race is a tossup.

A Mandel-Ryan race is Lean D.

A Timken/Dolan/Gibbons race is Safe R.

I am fine with Vance in Congress, he may bridge the divide with the black working class and white working class. Don't be surprised if he appeals to Black pastors.

I disagree as much as I don't like Vance and Mandel Ohio is a lot redder than it used to be and the national environment is looking bad for Ds
id say its more like
Vance-Ryan Likely R
Mandel-Ryan Lean R
Dolan/Timken-Ryan Safe R

[2016]

Trump won Ohio 2020 by nearly the exat same margin he did in 2016 which is 8 Points. Over the past 8 years since Obama won it in 2012 the Buckeye State has become more rual and with an unfavorable Midterm Environment for Democrats this year I just don't see how they can win it unless Mandel turns out to be the Eric Greitens of Missouri or Roy Moore of Alabama.

[Grassroots]

Ohio-senate is solid R with any Republican nominee not named Josh Mandel. Stop kidding yourselves.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Ohio-senate is solid R with any Republican nominee not named Josh Mandel. Stop kidding yourselves.

Especially when democrats' main attack against Vance seems to be "he didn't like Trump enough"

[wbrocks67]

Ohio-senate is solid R with any Republican nominee not named Josh Mandel. Stop kidding yourselves.

Especially when democrats' main attack against Vance seems to be "he didn't like Trump enough"

no i think the main attack against Vance is that he's now a far-right nut bag

[Boobs]

JD Vance is a disgusting slob and also a complete and total phony, which is far worse than any other attack.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They haven't polled this state once and Ryan has 10M like Demings in the bank which is sad

[Yoda]

Bruh:

https://twitter.com/JoshforGeorgia/status/1516093390378741763?s=20&t=alCAp0I...

Pretty smart of Vance's old roommate to wait until after trump endorsed Vance to release these texts. His primary rivals can weaponize them against him, and if he still makes it to the general, a smart Tim Ryan campaign or a smart dem super pac can weaponize them to depress base republican turnout. I smell a bloody home stretch to this primary. Hopefully Vance gets seriously wounded.

[Grassroots]

Bruh:

https://twitter.com/JoshforGeorgia/status/1516093390378741763?s=20&t=alCAp0I...

Pretty smart of Vance's old roommate to wait until after trump endorsed Vance to release these texts. His primary rivals can weaponize them against him, and if he still makes it to the general, a smart Tim Ryan campaign or a smart dem super pac can weaponize them to depress base republican turnout. I smell a bloody home stretch to this primary. Hopefully Vance gets seriously wounded.

Vance is winning the primary by more than 10 points.

[Calthrina950]

Bruh:

https://twitter.com/JoshforGeorgia/status/1516093390378741763?s=20&t=alCAp0I...

Pretty smart of Vance's old roommate to wait until after trump endorsed Vance to release these texts. His primary rivals can weaponize them against him, and if he still makes it to the general, a smart Tim Ryan campaign or a smart dem super pac can weaponize them to depress base republican turnout. I smell a bloody home stretch to this primary. Hopefully Vance gets seriously wounded.

Vance is winning the primary by more than 10 points.

And if he's the nominee, he will defeat Ryan easily.