OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeWine is gonna win no one is disputing that but Ryan will win Vance has a 28% Approvals like Oz and isn't gonna make that up with Blk Arab and white female vote

This state split it's vote in 2018 Brown got 90% of Blk vote and Renacci got 10% and DeWine got 6 or 50% of the Blk vote Vance is right where Renacci is

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Obviously worst ad ever /s

[wbrocks67]

Obviously worst ad ever /s

Genius.

Refreshing to see so many D candidates this cycle absolutely turn the tables on Rs.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1560021418171109378

[Ferguson97]

It's Vance+3

Vance 45%, Ryan 42%

[SnowLabrador]

It's Vance+3

Vance 45%, Ryan 42%

Safe R. It's not getting any better for Ryan from here on out.

[Ferguson97]

It's Vance+3

Vance 45%, Ryan 42%

Safe R. It's not getting any better for Ryan from here on out.

Safe R is ridiculous, that's reserved for states like Wyoming or Idaho.

If you want to call it Likely R, fine, but Safe R? Especially when Vance has been doing everything wrong and Ryan has been doing everything right, it's somewhere between Lean R and Likely R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Emerson polled this race not online polls Ryan is down by 3 all the other polls were on line polls too rosy it's a 303 map but EDay is in Nov there is a a plausible chance we get OH but it's not inevitable like it was when Ryan was up 11

As of today it's a 52)48 Senate we pickup WI and PA

That's why I. This Environment you don't overdonate the polls are inflated

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's Vance+3

Vance 45%, Ryan 42%

Safe R. It's not getting any better for Ryan from here on out.

Safe R is ridiculous, that's reserved for states like Wyoming or Idaho.

If you want to call it Likely R, fine, but Safe R? Especially when Vance has been doing everything wrong and Ryan has been doing everything right, it's somewhere between Lean R and Likely R.

Likely R is my rating. Lean R is a bit too generous cause when you actually try to find Ryan’s statewide path to victory things get very tricky

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1560306935244677126

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1560306935244677126

Dems should more or less let them do this and save their money. Ohio is just not a state where the math adds up. If Dems are going to win any Trump state (small chance...I consider a House hold, 52 Senate to be more than a success) it's North Carolina where they can eat the edges of GOP margins in the metro areas. Ohio is too heavy of a lift and even Florida might have more upside as its a very pro choice state.

[wbrocks67]

And people really doubt that Ryan may have been up in this race?

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1560349310809542656

[President Johnson]

Fivethirtyeight has an interesting article about this race today.

https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1560628723891818496

Ohio is the type of Senate race that Democrats shouldn’t have much business competing in. The state is increasingly red, having voted for former President Donald Trump by 8 percentage points in 2020. True, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown was reelected in Ohio in 2018 — but that was in a strongly Democratic environment that is unlikely to be replicated this November, in what’s expected to be a Republican-leaning year.

[...]

Our election forecast is … confused. The Lite version of our forecast, which just uses the polls, sticks to our polling average and has Ryan as a slight 56 percent favorite.1 The Classic version, which incorporates “fundamentals” such as Ohio’s Republican lean and Ryan’s fundraising advantage so far, puts Ryan’s chances at 39 percent and Vance as a slight favorite. And the Deluxe forecast, which also accounts for expert race ratings — in essence, the conventional wisdom that the race is an uphill climb for Democrats — has Ryan’s chances at 21 percent, making Vance a clear favorite.

[...]

This relatively narrow polling advantage for Ryan is also coming at a time when Ryan is using his fundraising advantage to dominate the airwaves. Reinforcements are coming for Vance, though, so Ryan might lose that advantage by November.

So does Ryan have a chance? Yes, absolutely. But I think the Deluxe version of the forecast probably does a pretty good job of pegging Ryan’s chances to roughly 1 in 5.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If Biden doesn't run and Kamala wins the nomination, Ryan will be her veep

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Fivethirtyeight has an interesting article about this race today.

https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1560628723891818496

Ohio is the type of Senate race that Democrats shouldn’t have much business competing in. The state is increasingly red, having voted for former President Donald Trump by 8 percentage points in 2020. True, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown was reelected in Ohio in 2018 — but that was in a strongly Democratic environment that is unlikely to be replicated this November, in what’s expected to be a Republican-leaning year.

[...]

Our election forecast is … confused. The Lite version of our forecast, which just uses the polls, sticks to our polling average and has Ryan as a slight 56 percent favorite.1 The Classic version, which incorporates “fundamentals” such as Ohio’s Republican lean and Ryan’s fundraising advantage so far, puts Ryan’s chances at 39 percent and Vance as a slight favorite. And the Deluxe forecast, which also accounts for expert race ratings — in essence, the conventional wisdom that the race is an uphill climb for Democrats — has Ryan’s chances at 21 percent, making Vance a clear favorite.

[...]

This relatively narrow polling advantage for Ryan is also coming at a time when Ryan is using his fundraising advantage to dominate the airwaves. Reinforcements are coming for Vance, though, so Ryan might lose that advantage by November.

So does Ryan have a chance? Yes, absolutely. But I think the Deluxe version of the forecast probably does a pretty good job of pegging Ryan’s chances to roughly 1 in 5.

A one in five chance sounds about right.  Basically Ryan has the same odds of winning right now that Trump did of winning the 2016 Presidential election circa the day before the election.

[Brittain33]

Buried in this WaPo article about the NRSC - Vance's internal polling is worse than public polling showing Ryan ahead.

Several public polls recently showed Ryan leading, and internal Republican surveys found Vance with an even bigger deficit, according to people familiar with the findings.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/19/gop-senate-rescue-midterms/

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Buried in this WaPo article about the NRSC - Vance's internal polling is worse than public polling showing Ryan ahead.

Several public polls recently showed Ryan leading, and internal Republican surveys found Vance with an even bigger deficit, according to people familiar with the findings.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/19/gop-senate-rescue-midterms/

Wow

[S019]

Buried in this WaPo article about the NRSC - Vance's internal polling is worse than public polling showing Ryan ahead.

Several public polls recently showed Ryan leading, and internal Republican surveys found Vance with an even bigger deficit, according to people familiar with the findings.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/19/gop-senate-rescue-midterms/

After reporting on leaked internals in 2020, I'm very cautious to read much into this, but it's very clear that just letting Ryan define himself to the voters (including ads like the Fox one where he basically shows Fox calling him a centrist) while Vance did nothing was a very risky strategy and the GOP wanted to take no chances, which explains their massive ad buy. However, the Republicans basically somehow burning $150 million (that WaPo article said they started at like $170 million and are now at $20 million) may make this type of "big ad buy at once" strategy tricky in other states (I don't doubt McConnell has tons of money, but buying $30 million ad buys also in PA, FL, AZ, GA, etc. would add up pretty quickly and they'd probably need even higher saturation in PA/AZ/GA).

[SnowLabrador]

This is KS-SEN 2020 all over again. People thought Barbara Bollier could defeat Roger Marshall, and she lost by over 11 points. Safe R.

[S019]

This is KS-SEN 2020 all over again. People thought Barbara Bollier could defeat Roger Marshall, and she lost by over 11 points. Safe R.

Oh, I agree and Democrats would be very stupid to spend here, but Republicans being forced to divert money here when they're already facing cash problems is absolutely a good development.

[Brittain33]

This is KS-SEN 2020 all over again. People thought Barbara Bollier could defeat Roger Marshall, and she lost by over 11 points. Safe R.

It’s been consistently Likely R for several months, and will never be Safe R unless Ryan has a thermonuclear scandal.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is KS-SEN 2020 all over again. People thought Barbara Bollier could defeat Roger Marshall, and she lost by over 11 points. Safe R.

The worst case scenario for the GOP is a MO 2016 redux imo

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I think this summarizes why dems are optimistic, and even Ryan losing (which is virtually inevitable) would be a win:

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1560306818986889217

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think this summarizes why dems are optimistic, and even Ryan losing (which is virtually inevitable) would be a win:

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1560306818986889217

Lol do you know OH split it's vote between SEN AND GOV in 2018 Brown guess what happened Renacci got 10% of Blk vote and DeWine got 6%/12% of the Blk vote, not white Evangelical but with Blk people Blk people vote too

Anyways there are gonna be upsets in 22 we haven't had two duplicate maps each election cycle because not all races stay the dame

Nan Whaley is tied with DeWine, OH is the most likely red state to turn blue in 24 because of Brown is up for reelection

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I think this summarizes why dems are optimistic, and even Ryan losing (which is virtually inevitable) would be a win:

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1560306818986889217

Lol do you know OH split it's vote between SEN AND GOV in 2018 Brown guess what happened Renacci got 10% of Blk vote and DeWine got 6%/12% of the Blk vote, not white Evangelical but with Blk people Blk people vote too

Anyways there are gonna be upsets in 22 we haven't had two duplicate maps each election cycle because not all races stay the dame

Nan Whaley is tied with DeWine, OH is the most likely red state to turn blue in 24 because of Brown is up for reelection

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