🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Hnv1]

The last days swing back to the CDU seems like it was actually a thing. If my math isn't terribly wrong RRG is off the table, so either Jamaica or traffic light? unless we'll get a shocker grand coalition again

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Getting ahead of myself but I assume even if the CDU have 1 more seat than the SDP they’ll get the first stab at a coalition? And will on the balance be likely to get one?

This is a big enough repudiation for the CDU that I doubt other parties would want to prop them up again.

[Lechasseur]

Four more years of having to stand in line to change my address, i guess 🤷‍♂️

What do you mean by that?

[soundchaser]

The last days swing back to the CDU seems like it was actually a thing. If my math isn't terribly wrong RRG is off the table, so either Jamaica or traffic light? unless we'll get a shocker grand coalition again

R2G isn’t necessarily off the table if the ZDF poll is accurate.

[Oryxslayer]

They showed a bit of the projected voter movements on stream.

Greens gained voters from SPD despite the projected swings.
Linke lost almost 1 million votes to SPD/Greens.
A good chunk of the Union's former vote is now nonvoters.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Atlas posters watching the Battle of Austerlitz


Wow! Napoleon really messed up, he failed to capture Alexander I!!! Pathetic!

tfw Olaf Scholz is Napoelon in your metaphor


In all seriousness, in the grand scheme of things (and regardless of how the exact vote count shakes out, since it's likely to be a few points off), these are very bad results for both the SPD and CDU, and show that what's left of the old postwar party system is continuing its long decline.

[Walmart_shopper]

What even is the point of the SPD anymore?

Couldn't you say the same thing about the Austrian SocDems, the PS in Span and France, the Dutch Labor party, Israeli Labor, British Labour, etc.? The weird globalist/pro worker/culturally libertine thing European SocDems are doing just doesn't do it for voters. It isn't where people are, ideologically. The Danish SocDems are in much better shape because they chewed off the xenophobia of the right and made it their own thing.  I don't love that l approach, but at some point the left has to start actually reaching out to voters and bringing them on board with genuinely progressive policy solutions. This dumb Starmery thing they're all doing is hopeless.

[Lechasseur]

FDP's Kubicki indicates that FPD prefer Jamaica coalition.

They already had their chance.

What do you mean by that?

[KaiserDave]

Atlas posters watching the Battle of Austerlitz


Wow! Napoleon really messed up, he failed to capture Alexander I!!! Pathetic!

tfw Olaf Scholz is Napoelon in your metaphor


In all seriousness, in the grand scheme of things (and regardless of how the exact vote count shakes out, since it's likely to be a few points off), these are very bad results for both the SPD and CDU, and show that what's left of the old postwar party system is continuing its long decline.

I don't think this is a bad result for the SPD, given that they are poised to be the largest party, especially when early polls had them fading into irrelevance. Maybe it's a bad result compared to the 70s and 80s, but I'm not sure that really matters.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What do you mean by that?

The CDU and the Greens were all primed and signed up for a 'Jamaica' coalition last time (though the CSU was leery), but the FDP bailed at the last minute.

[jaichind]

Did any of the exit polls have any info on the FW vote.  Seems to be if CDU/CSU does fall behind SPD it was the FW that cost them from being the largest bloc.

[Silent Hunter]

In any event, Merkel probably won't be moving out for a few weeks.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Atlas posters watching the Battle of Austerlitz


Wow! Napoleon really messed up, he failed to capture Alexander I!!! Pathetic!

tfw Olaf Scholz is Napoelon in your metaphor


In all seriousness, in the grand scheme of things (and regardless of how the exact vote count shakes out, since it's likely to be a few points off), these are very bad results for both the SPD and CDU, and show that what's left of the old postwar party system is continuing its long decline.

I don't think this is a bad result for the SPD, given that they are poised to be the largest party, especially when early polls had them fading into irrelevance. Maybe it's a bad result compared to the 70s and 80s, but I'm not sure that really matters.

"Barely 4 points over their worst result in all of history" isn't exactly a ringing endorsement. We can play expectations game all we want with pre-election polls, but in the end, there are long-term trends at play, and a 4-point blip doesn't really change them.

[brucejoel99]

What even is the point of the SPD anymore?

They did well....

This is a disaster for the Union...

Yeah, but the coalition options kinda suck for the SPD: assuming no Jamaica, either they continue the grand coalition with themselves as its leaders this time & thus further enable the erasure of their inherent political identity or they try to form a traffic-light coalition without R2G as negotiating leverage. Neither seems all that likely to lead to future successes for them.

[KaiserDave]

What even is the point of the SPD anymore?

They did well....

This is a disaster for the Union...

Yeah, but the coalition options kinda suck for the SPD: assuming no Jamaica, either they continue the grand coalition with themselves as its leaders this time & thus further enable the erasure of their inherent political identity or they try to form a traffic-light coalition without R2G as negotiating leverage. Neither seems all that likely to lead to future successes for them.

Very speculative

[brucejoel99]

The last days swing back to the CDU seems like it was actually a thing. If my math isn't terribly wrong RRG is off the table, so either Jamaica or traffic light? unless we'll get a shocker grand coalition again

R2G isn’t necessarily off the table if the ZDF poll is accurate.

The ZDF poll's seat projections show R2G coming in at just 3 seats short of an absolute majority.

[KaiserDave]

The last days swing back to the CDU seems like it was actually a thing. If my math isn't terribly wrong RRG is off the table, so either Jamaica or traffic light? unless we'll get a shocker grand coalition again

R2G isn’t necessarily off the table if the ZDF poll is accurate.

The ZDF poll's seat projections show R2G coming in at just 3 seats short of an absolute majority.

Very easy for the poll to be 3 seats off

[Hnv1]

What does the basic law dictate here? who gets the first shot to present a government for a confidence motion in the Bundestag?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

German elections get more and more Americanized: In Berlin-Wilmersdorf there are still tons of voters waiting in lines outside the polling stations after numerous voting ballots got mixed up between polling locations.
Ballots that were unwittingly cast wrongly are nevertheless declared null and void. 🤬

[KaiserDave]

Calling it! Exit polls is underestimating the SPD. Calling it! I have no information to determine this but I am calling it.

[brucejoel99]

The last days swing back to the CDU seems like it was actually a thing. If my math isn't terribly wrong RRG is off the table, so either Jamaica or traffic light? unless we'll get a shocker grand coalition again

R2G isn’t necessarily off the table if the ZDF poll is accurate.

The ZDF poll's seat projections show R2G coming in at just 3 seats short of an absolute majority.

Very easy for the poll to be 3 seats off

Of course, it could just as very easily wind up being 3 seats off in the other direction & putting R2G at least 6 seats short.

[urutzizu]

Yes, but it is fairly hard to see R2G happening with a very narrow majority (under ca. 15 Seats). Especially because of the risk during the election for Chancellor (secret), and Linke MdB jumping off when voting on Parliamentary Mandates for foreign military operations.

[KaiserDave]

Atlas posters watching the Battle of Austerlitz


Wow! Napoleon really messed up, he failed to capture Alexander I!!! Pathetic!

tfw Olaf Scholz is Napoelon in your metaphor


In all seriousness, in the grand scheme of things (and regardless of how the exact vote count shakes out, since it's likely to be a few points off), these are very bad results for both the SPD and CDU, and show that what's left of the old postwar party system is continuing its long decline.

I don't think this is a bad result for the SPD, given that they are poised to be the largest party, especially when early polls had them fading into irrelevance. Maybe it's a bad result compared to the 70s and 80s, but I'm not sure that really matters.

"Barely 4 points over their worst result in all of history" isn't exactly a ringing endorsement. We can play expectations game all we want with pre-election polls, but in the end, there are long-term trends at play, and a 4-point blip doesn't really change them.

I'm very skeptical of these long term trends, Greens could easily collapse in 2025, we'll see.

[Oryxslayer]

What does the basic law dictate here? who gets the first shot to present a government for a confidence motion in the Bundestag?

Depends who finishes first, and for this purpose, CDU and CSU are considered as one. Practically it's anyone's game, realistically the first-place finisher gets the power.

[Omega21]

What does the basic law dictate here? who gets the first shot to present a government for a confidence motion in the Bundestag?

Afaik, it's always been the #1 party