International COVID-19 Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

Bavariageddon: This year's Oktoberfest has been cancelled!

Previously, the Oktoberfest had been cancelled in 1854 and 1873 due to Cholera outbreaks (and a couple of other times due to wars being fought).

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Bavariageddon: This year's Oktoberfest has been cancelled!

This was supposed to be my first year going, goddammit

[Tirnam]

According to one study only 5.7% of the French population has been infected with COVID-19 (so around 3.7 million)
The death rate is estimated to be 0.53%
The reproductive number was reduced by the lockdown from 3.3 to 0.5.

https://hal-pasteur.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-02548181

[Pulaski]

Less than 2000 active cases in Australia now, according to figures. We've been unbelievably lucky here so far.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Less than 2000 active cases in Australia now, according to figures. We've been unbelievably lucky here so far.

With recoveries updated, it's 1,426.

[ON Progressive]

A vaccine for COVID-19?

We need to be prepared for the eventuality of never having one.

Professor Ian Frazer explains:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-17/coronavirus-vaccine-ian-frazer/12146616

Yeah, this is a seriously underrated possibility in my view. I feel like we really need an exit plan for what to do if this situation does happen.

[CumbrianLefty]

Less than 2000 active cases in Australia now, according to figures. We've been unbelievably lucky here so far.

It seems that right wingers in Oz have less of the ideological hostility to state action that some of their Anglosphere counterparts in the UK and US do, and this helped them take effective action quicker?

[Pulaski]

Less than 2000 active cases in Australia now, according to figures. We've been unbelievably lucky here so far.

It seems that right wingers in Oz have less of the ideological hostility to state action that some of their Anglosphere counterparts in the UK and US do, and this helped them take effective action quicker?

I'm not so sure about that, at least federally. Our prime minister Scott Morrison (my local MP) announced a ban on non-essential mass gatherings in March, but announced at the same conference that he'd still be attending the rugby on the weekend before the restrictions came into place. We also had the Ruby Princess Debacle, which seems to have been a colossal failure of various bodies to communicate or take responsibility.

Luckily, like the US, our state governments retain ability to take a large amount of action themselves, but unlike the US, no state government here is run by the hard right. Interstate travel has been banned, and with how large our states are, wasn't exactly easy in the first place.

I think our ban on travel to and from China came quite early in our spread, which made a huge difference. Public transport, at least in Sydney, is not nearly as widely used as in London, and we have relatively low population density even in our cities - suburban sprawl maybe not a bad thing in this case. Our testing regime, one of the best in the world, must have made a big difference too.

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kurz press statement:

Austria will further re-open the society and economy, starting May 1.

* School will start again, tests and graduation exams will be performed.

* Kindergartens will remain opt-in.

* All restaurants are allowed to open again, but waiters and all other employees need to wear masks or faceshields and gloves.

* The quarantine in Ischgl and elsewhere will end.

* Family gatherings will be allowed again.

* Church services will be possible again.

---

Team sports will remain banned for now, but other individual sports such as tennis, golf etc. will be allowed.

Hotels and tourism will have to wait until the end of May.

[parochial boy]

Good news from Geneva, which reported minus one new cases today.

[Mike88]

Portugal update:

Biggest increase in recoveries ever and hospitalized and ICU patients continue to drop slightly:

Total cases: 21,379 (+516)
Deaths: 762 (+27)
Recoveries: 917 (+307)
Patients in ICU: 213 (-2)
Patients hospitalized: 1,172 (-36)

271,962 tests conducted since March 1st

[Middle-aged Europe]

A vaccine for COVID-19?

We need to be prepared for the eventuality of never having one.

Professor Ian Frazer explains:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-17/coronavirus-vaccine-ian-frazer/12146616

Yeah, this is a seriously underrated possibility in my view. I feel like we really need an exit plan for what to do if this situation does happen.

Accept that people will continue to regularly die of the virus. Build more ICUs. Train more medical personnel. Maintain low-level restrictions for society on a more permanent basis (emphasis on low-level like a ban on public gatherings and events with more than 50-100 people, although I'd also expect that we become exactly like the East Asian countries in the matter of wearing masks in public).

[Tender Branson]

Even though Sweden had 10x the deaths yesterday as Austria, the Swedish „strategy“ of herd immunity could pay off at some point.

Studies show that only a small section of our population is infected so far, but it could be more in Sweden and they could be closer to herd immunity already (50%+).

If there is a second wave here again after the summer because of tourists etc. - we’d need to shut everything down again, while the Swedish population is largely immune ...

[President Johnson]

It hasn't been confirmed yet, but all signs are pointing into the direction the Munich Oktoberfest, scheduled from late September into October, will be cancelled this fall.

Now it's official: Oktoberfest is cancelled!

Furthermore, more German states require wearing masks in public transportation and stores, including my state of Baden-Württemberg. The requirement was announced today and become effective next Monday. Cloths and scarves are accepted as well. Hope I can get one for a price that isn't totally absurd. Was in a store today, three pieces were 14€, which is kinda crazy considering these very simple masks have production costs of a few cents. For going to the supermarket once or twice a week, I'll take my scarf.

[FrancoAgo]

Even though Sweden had 10x the deaths yesterday as Austria, the Swedish „strategy“ of herd immunity could pay off at some point.

Studies show that only a small section of our population is infected so far, but it could be more in Sweden and they could be closer to herd immunity already (50%+).

If there is a second wave here again after the summer because of tourists etc. - we’d need to shut everything down again, while the Swedish population is largely immune ...

ATM there is no prove that immunity is applicable, as there is no prove that is not applicable

[Meclazine for Israel]

Thailand Rebels

Protesting Against the Lockdown

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bnoRPYhp4R4

[Tender Branson]

Only 52 new cases here since yesterday (+0.3%), up to 14.925 in total ...

In hospitals: 700 (minus 600 since the peak)
In ICU: 176 (minus 100 since the peak)

Recoveries are up by 350 since yesterday to 11.328

Active cases: 3.087 (-324)

Deaths: 510 (+19)

[Mike88]

Only 52 new cases here since yesterday (+0.3%), up to 14.925 in total ...

In hospitals: 700 (minus 600 since the peak)
In ICU: 176 (minus 100 since the peak)

Recoveries are up by 350 since yesterday to 11.328

Active cases: 3.087 (-324)

Deaths: 510 (+19)

How are recoveries being classified in Austria?

Here in Portugal you have to do 2 tests in the space of 48 hours to declared as recovered. That's one of the main reason the number of recoveries in Portugal is quite slow, plus the fact that 85%+ of infected are treated at home and, possibly, many don't even do the 2 final tests to be declared as recovered.

[Tender Branson]

Only 52 new cases here since yesterday (+0.3%), up to 14.925 in total ...

In hospitals: 700 (minus 600 since the peak)
In ICU: 176 (minus 100 since the peak)

Recoveries are up by 350 since yesterday to 11.328

Active cases: 3.087 (-324)

Deaths: 510 (+19)

How are recoveries being classified in Austria?

Here in Portugal you have to do 2 tests in the space of 48 hours to declared as recovered. That's one of the main reason the number of recoveries in Portugal is quite slow, plus the fact that 85%+ of infected are treated at home and, possibly, many don't even do the 2 final tests to be declared as recovered.

This.

You get tested 2 times after being in a authorities-mandated 2 week quarantine (Red Cross people coming to your house and take the test samples).

You then get the test results and the authorities submit into the EMS system how many are tested negative and therefore recovered ...

[Tender Branson]

WTF ?

Some Chinese virus patients turned into Africans, with their skin turning dark (VIDEO):

https://nypost.com/2020/04/21/chinese-doctors-skin-turns-dark-after-coronavirus-recovery

That’s like Eric Cartman waking up as a ginger ...

[Mike88]

Only 52 new cases here since yesterday (+0.3%), up to 14.925 in total ...

In hospitals: 700 (minus 600 since the peak)
In ICU: 176 (minus 100 since the peak)

Recoveries are up by 350 since yesterday to 11.328

Active cases: 3.087 (-324)

Deaths: 510 (+19)

How are recoveries being classified in Austria?

Here in Portugal you have to do 2 tests in the space of 48 hours to declared as recovered. That's one of the main reason the number of recoveries in Portugal is quite slow, plus the fact that 85%+ of infected are treated at home and, possibly, many don't even do the 2 final tests to be declared as recovered.

This.

You get tested 2 times after being in a authorities-mandated 2 week quarantine (Red Cross people coming to your house and take the test samples).

You then get the test results and the authorities submit into the EMS system how many are tested negative and therefore recovered ...

Ah, right. The Austrian red cross goes to people houses and do the tests. Here I don't think that's the case. At least of what I know. Perhaps, in reality, the "true" number of recovered in Portugal may be well above 5,000, or more. The big number of tests in Portugal are going to nursing homes across the country, which are the biggest concern for local and the national governments.

[Mike88]

As I was writting the post above, another big jump in recoveries was announced in Portugal:

Portugal update: (22 April)

Total cases: 21,982 (+603)
Deaths: 785 (+23)
Recoveries: 1,143 (+225)
Patients in ICU: 207 (-6)
Patients hospitalized: 1,146 (-26)

281,907 tests conducted since March 1st

[Middle-aged Europe]

Furthermore, more German states require wearing masks in public transportation and stores, including my state of Baden-Württemberg. The requirement was announced today and become effective next Monday. Cloths and scarves are accepted as well. Hope I can get one for a price that isn't totally absurd. Was in a store today, three pieces were 14€, which is kinda crazy considering these very simple masks have production costs of a few cents. For going to the supermarket once or twice a week, I'll take my scarf.

All German states have now made covering you face in public transportation and/or supermarkets mandatory. Interestingly, this wasn't part of the federal-state deal from last week. This was more than of these state-level domino effects. Once you reach the critical mass everyone does it.

I haf ordered myself a couple of masks last week, but I still waiting from them to arrive. But I've also heard that they're pretty uncomfortable to wear after a while anyway. Yesterday, I used a scarf in the subway.

[Meclazine for Israel]

As I was writting the post above, another big jump in recoveries was announced in Portugal:

Portugal update: (22 April)

Total cases: 21,982 (+603)
Deaths: 785 (+23)
Recoveries: 1,143 (+225)
Patients in ICU: 207 (-6)
Patients hospitalized: 1,146 (-26)

281,907 tests conducted since March 1st

Looking at the curves, i would say you are missing 12,000 recoveries in Portugal.

They are simply being under-reported worldwide as the priority for medical staff is on new and critical patients.

[parochial boy]

I've been looking at some of the details on mortality that Swiss cantons have been releasing. There is a pretty consistent picture that around 70-80% of deaths in the last two weeks have been outside of hospitals; and in the one or two cases that cantons release figures - nearly half of the reported deaths are people who never tested positive for the virus. Even despite having one of the most liberal methodologies to count fatalities, there are still about 400 "unexplained" deaths when looking at excess mortality figures since the beginning of March.

Suffice to say that this thing is probably killing alot more people than we think it is.