International COVID-19 Megathread

[Silent Hunter]

Italy is also a very 'social' culture with a high smoking rate and the Lombardy area also has a lot of pollution. That will impact lung function.

[FrancoAgo]

Italian smokers are less of german, 24% vs 30%
https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/smoking-rates-by-country/

I've not found number of tests did in Germany, in Italy are 233K, i've some doubt that german number is of different magnitude (also taking in the count the 35+% more population of Germany)

[Silent Hunter]

Question that comes to mind for me is why are so many of the tests coming back negative?

[Tender Branson]

2.814 cases in Austria by 3pm.

Compared with 3pm yesterday, an increase of 17.8%

That is the lowest percentage-wise increase since the epidemic began here.

8 people are dead, 15 in intensive care units. More than 99% are quarantined at home with only mild symptoms or none at all.

Daily testing has reached a record-level today.

[palandio]

Nice chart.

Could also be a ranking of how good a country’s healthcare system is.

https://twitter.com/justinwolfers/status/1241102311071645699

I don't think so. The differing death rates at the moment is something that really stands out. On the one hand, you have the likes of the Nordic countries, the Germanic countries or Switzerland where the death rate is hovering around 1% or below. And on the other, you have (forgetting Italy) the Spain, France, UK, the Netherlands a bit; where it is more lie 3% or higher. I mean for sure, the countries in the first groups are generally richer than the second group, but I don't think "healthcare systems" even comes close to making a difference of a factor of 4-5 in terms of death rates. The French system in particular, has always had a very good reputation. So there is clearly more going on here.

And for case numbers, there are obviously other factors at work. Ticino is part of Lombardy, geographically speaking - and hugely economically dependent on it. So Switzerland was always going to walloped from the moment it became obvious what was going on in Italy.

The low mortality rate in Germany is still a mistery. The factors in play could be:

1. It's possible the local virus outbreak is still in the first stages in Germany, while the outbreak in Italy was detected in an advanced stage. In case that's true, mortality rate is likely to increase in Germany, but it seems unlikely it reaches the Southern European levels

2. The average age of people infected in Germany is lower (46) than in Italy (fairly above 60). Mortality rate increases with age

3. Massive test availability in Germany compared to other countries. More tests imply lower mortality rate

Still, these factors only explain partially the German case

On a side note: Lombardy and Madrid are the richest regions in Italy and Spain, respectively

Your three points are very valid, though. I think that they explain a lot of the huge differences in statistic mortality. Let me add:

ad 1. and 2.: Apart from the cluster around Heinsberg it seems that in many places the first Covid-19 cases were people that came home from skiing holidays. (Or skiing and clubbing holidays.) As we know this is not the typical demographic that would die from Covid-19. It becomes ugly when the virus gets into hospitals and nursing homes. In Bavaria several (nine?) old people in one nursing home have died within a few days. Maybe higher family cohesion in Southern Europe is an accelerating factor, too.

ad 3.: Yes, at least at the beginning of the outbreak Germany could afford to test contact persons even if they showed only mild symptoms or no symptoms. Additionally there might be underreporting of Covid-19 deaths because apparently not every dead person is tested. On the other hand depending on definitions there might be overreporting of Covid-19 deaths in Italy because just that a dead person was infected with Covid-19 does not necessarily mean that this was the cause of death.

4. So far in Germany there seems to have been not much (local) overburdening of the healthcare system (ICU, respiration, testing).

[President Johnson]

Italian smokers are less of german, 24% vs 30%
https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/smoking-rates-by-country/

I've not found number of tests did in Germany, in Italy are 233K, i've some doubt that german number is of different magnitude (also taking in the count the 35+% more population of Germany)

If I remember correctly there is no hard number of tests conducted in Germany available. But RKI said yesterday more than 100,000 are being conducted a week now. It should be noted that Germany has a unique infrastructure of (decentralized) laboratories. Experts think current capability of tests can be further increased by 30-40% within a few days.

[Tender Branson]

Vienna police giving „private concerts“ at residential areas where people are under curfew, by playing music out of their police cars ... 💪🤟👍😎👏

https://twitter.com/jaxn_0/status/1241429373191966721

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Up to 536 confirmed cases.

[Antonio the Sixth]

All these supposed "lockdowns" are way too lax (especially the CA and NY ones, which are a complete joke). We're seeing a very literal representation of "too little, too late" in action. These measures must be taken before the number of cases begins spiking up (because by the time you see them, there are already many more going undetected). They must be total. You can only get out of your house to buy groceries, medicine, or to go to work if your job is truly indispensable. No jogging or walking the dog. And they must be enforced. Put cops on the street, even the military if that's not enough. Impose hefty fines. Lock up repeat offenders. If you do all that, the situation should work itself out in 2-3 weeks, without overwhelming the healthcare system.

Instead, Italy chose half-measures, and is paying the price now. Other countries aren't even willing to go that far, and they'll pay the price soon enough.

[Silent Hunter]

There aren't frankly enough cops and military in any country to enforce a total, nationwide lockdown. The Chinese could only do it for one province.

[Antonio the Sixth]

There aren't frankly enough cops and military in any country to enforce a total, nationwide lockdown. The Chinese could only do it for one province.

Well, however many are available should be put to that use. Every little bit helps.

[parochial boy]

But, in an almost unheard of case of a Swiss politician doing something vaguely creative. Alain Berset, did an instagram thing... and now we've got Federer protecting us. All will be well.

[Silent Hunter]

There aren't frankly enough cops and military in any country to enforce a total, nationwide lockdown. The Chinese could only do it for one province.

Well, however many are available should be put to that use. Every little bit helps.

Agree, but we may end up with a choice between using those people to deliver key supplies and trying to enforce lockdowns that will be widely violated.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

An idiot suspected of being infected fled the hospital in Gdańsk and was found at the very opposite end of Poland, in Podhale region.

[Tintrlvr]

There aren't frankly enough cops and military in any country to enforce a total, nationwide lockdown. The Chinese could only do it for one province.

Even in Wuhan, you could go out for exercise (at least, according to my colleague whose family lives in Wuhan, as of a few weeks ago).

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

https://twitter.com/BevanShields/status/1241494999482667010?s=19

[Antonio the Sixth]

Still refusing to send in the army.

Anyway, we're about to find out if the first lockdown orders have had any effect. If you buy the 2-week delayed effect theory, we should start seeing the impact in the Monday numbers. If the growth is still going unabated, that means the measures had no effect. Which in turns would mean that the next few weeks are going to see continued exponential growth, likely resulting in the catastrophic breakdown of healthcare provision across the Northern regions and the beginning of the collapse in the Center and South. In other words, the country would be completely and utterly f**ked.

[Tender Branson]

According to the live tracking of reported cases in Austria, the daily increase will be the lowest today when the 8am numbers are out.

+14% compared with yesterday 8am.

2.664 (8am yesterday)
3.024 (6am today)

The increase in absolute numbers has now also peaked. Were the cases increasing by about 500 per day so far (peak), the increase until this morning will be „just“ 400.

https://info.gesundheitsministerium.at

[Tender Branson]

The number of cases in my district (Zell am See) is stable for quite some days now at around 50. The district, like most western ones, is a tourist/skiing hotspot - so most cases involve tourists who are now isolated for 2-3 weeks in their rooms.

And there’s even a Corona „drive-through“ test station here at a parking lot, operated by the Red Cross.

But you cannot just drive there on your own to get tested, only if you called the doc beforehand because you feel feverish and the doc orders you there for a test ...

[It’s so Joever]

An interesting perspective on the Milan lockdown from Chinese health officials who are aiding Italy...
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.rfi.fr/en/international/20200320-china-reproaches-west-s-laxity-in-fight-against-coronavirus-lockdown-italy-highest-death-toll-herd-immunity-covid-19

[Meclazine for Israel]

Western Australia is closing it's border with South Australia.

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-22/wa-sa-set-to-close-borders-amid-coronavirus-fight/12079044

They have been bringing drugs and rapists. South Australia is the serial killer capital of Australia.

They are not bringing their best.

We are going to build a wall and South Australia are going to pay for it.

[FrancoAgo]

https://twitter.com/BevanShields/status/1241494999482667010?s=19

actually they close only partially the factories, there is a long list open activities
01 COLTIVAZIONI AGRICOLE E PRODUZIONE DI PRODOTTI ANIMALI, CACCIA E SERVIZI CONNESSI
03 PESCA E ACQUACOLTURA
10 INDUSTRIE ALIMENTARI
11 INDUSTRIA DELLE BEVANDE
13.96.20 Fabbricazione di altri articoli tessili tecnici ed industriali
13.94 "FABBRICAZIONE DI SPAGO, CORDE, FUNI E RETI "
13.95 FABBRICAZIONE DI TESSUTI NON TESSUTI E DI ARTICOLI IN TALI MATERIE (ESCLUSI GLI ARTICOLI DI ABBIGLIAMENTO)
14.12.00 Confezioni di camici, divise e altri indumenti da lavoro
17 Fabbricazione di carta
18 Stampa e riprdozuine di supporti registrati
19 FABBRICAZIONE DI COKE E PRODOTTI DERIVANTI DALLA RAFFINAZIONE DEL PETROLIO
20 Fabbricazione di prodotti chimici
21 FABBRICAZIONE DI PRODOTTI FARMACEUTICI DI BASE E DI PREPARATI FARMACEUTICI
22.1 Fabbricazione di articoli in gomma
22.2 Fabbricazione di articoli in materie plastiche
23.19.10 Fabbricazione di vetrerie per laboratori, per uso igienico, per farmacia
23.20.00 Fabbricazione di prodotti refrattari
24.42.00 Produzione di alluminio e semilavorati
26.60.02 Fabbricazione di apparecchi elettromedicali (incluse parti staccate e accessori)
26.60.09 Fabbricazione di altri strumenti per irradiazione ed altre apparecchiature elettroterapeutiche
28.95.00 Fabbricazione di macchine per l'industria della carta e del cartone (incluse parti e accessori)
32.50 Fabbricazione di strumenti e forniture mediche e dentistiche
33.12.40 Riparazione e manutenzione di attrezzature di uso non domestico per la refrigerazione e la ventilazione
33.13.03 Riparazione e manutenzione di apparecchi medicali per diagnosi, di materiale medico chirurgico e veterinario, di apparecchi e strumenti per odontoiatria
33.12.53 Riparazione e manutenzione di macchine per le industrie chimiche, petrolchimiche e petrolifere
33.12.60 Riparazione e manutenzione di trattori agricoli
33.12.70 Riparazione e manutenzione di altre macchine per l'agricoltura, la silvicoltura e la zootecnia
33.13.04 Riparazione di apparati di distillazione per laboratori, di centrifughe per laboratori e di macchinari per pulizia ad ultrasuoni per laboratori
33.16.00 Riparazione e manutenzione di aeromobili e di veicoli spaziali
33.17.00 Riparazione e manutenzione di materiale rotabile ferroviario, tranviario, filoviario e per metropolitane (esclusi i loro motori)
33.20.07 Installazione di apparecchi medicali per diagnosi, di apparecchi e strumenti per odontoiatria
33.20.08 Installazione di apparecchi elettromedicali
35 FORNITURA DI ENERGIA ELETTRICA, GAS, VAPORE E ARIA CONDIZIONATA
36 RACCOLTA, TRATTAMENTO E FORNITURA DI ACQUA
37 GESTIONE DELLE RETI FOGNARIE
38 ATTIVITÀ DI RACCOLTA, TRATTAMENTO E SMALTIMENTO DEI RIFIUTI; RECUPERO DEI MATERIALI
39 ATTIVITà DI RISANAMENTO E ALTRI SERVIZI DI GESTIONE DEI RIFIUTI
43.21 Installazione di impianti elettrici
43.22.01 Installazione di impianti idraulici, di riscaldamento e di condizionamento dell'aria (inclusa manutenzione e riparazione) in edifici o in altre opere di costruzione
43.22.02 Installazione di impianti per la distribuzione del gas (inclusa manutenzione e riparazione)
43.22.03 Installazione di impianti di spegnimento antincendio (inclusi quelli integrati e la manutenzione e riparazione)
45.2 Manutenzione e riparazione di autoveicoli
45.3 Commercio di parti e eccessori di autoveicoli
45.4 per la sola attività di manutenzione e riparazione di motocicli e commercio di relative parti e accessori
46.49.10 Commercio all'ingrosso di carta, cartone e articoli di cartoleria
46.69.94 Commercio all'ingrosso di articoli antincendio e antinfortunistici
49.10.00 Trasporto ferroviario di passeggeri (interurbano)
49.20.00 Trasporto ferroviario di merci
49.31.00 Trasporto terrestre di passeggeri in aree urbane e suburbane
49.32.10 Trasporto con taxi
49.32.20 Trasporto mediante noleggio di autovetture da rimessa con conducente
49.41.00 Trasporto di merci su strada
49.50.10 Trasporto mediante condotte di gas
49.50.20 Trasporto mediante condotte di liquidi
50 TRASPORTO MARITTIMO E PER VIE D'ACQUA
51 TRASPORTO AEREO
52 MAGAZZINAGGIO E ATTIVITÀ DI SUPPORTO AI TRASPORTI
53 SERVIZI POSTALI E ATTIVITÀ DI CORRIERE
j (DA 58 A 63) SERVIZI DI INFORMAZIONE E COMUNICAZIONE
K (da 64 a 66) ATTIVITà FINANZIARIE E ASSICURATIVE
72 RICERCA SCIENTFICA E SVILUPPO
74.3 TRADUZIONE E INTERPRETARIATO
75 SERVIZI VETERINARI
80.1 Servizi di vigilanza privata
80.2 Servizi connessi ai sistemi di vigilanza
81.22.01 Attività di sterilizzazione di attrezzature medico sanitarie
81.29.91 Pulizia e lavaggio di aree pubbliche, rimozione di neve e ghiaccio
81.29.99 Altre attività di pulizia nca
82.20.00 Attività dei call center
84 AMMINISTRAZIONE PUBBLICA E DIFESA; ASSICURAZIONE SOCIALE OBBLIGATORIA
85 ISTRUZIONE
86 ASSISTENZA SANITARIA
87 SERVIZI DI ASSISTENZA SOCIALE RESIDENZIALE
88 ASSISTENZA SOCIALE NON RESIDENZIALE
94 ATTIVITÀ DI ORGANIZZAZIONI ECONOMICHE, DI DATORI DI LAVORO E PROFESSIONALI

[Tender Branson]

3 infected British tourists under quarantine here in Zell am See have been double-tested and rated cured.

They can travel back to England now.

https://salzburg.orf.at/stories/3040327/

A couple others are not rated "cured" yet and remain in quarantine.

[Velasco]

Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez warned yesterday this coming week is expected to be hard, especially by next weekend. Authorities hope the peak is reached by then, but nobody knows. Sánchez is holding a video meeting with regional premiers right now. Apparently the government will propose a 15 day extension to the State of Alarm to be passed by Congress, inplying that quarantine will last one month at the very least. It will last longer

 

[Meclazine for Israel]

Young Australians have been criticised for not enacting social distancing recommendations.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-22/coronavirus-nsw-victoria-act-shutdown-non-essential-services/12079124

As a result, Prime Minister Scott Morrison has now cracked down by closing all:

• Pubs;
• Clubs;
• Restaurants;
• Gyms;
• Churches;
• Sporting Venues.

to contain the virus. All non-essential services will be closed over the next 48 hours.

Western Australian border will be shut tonight, and people who don't obey the social order may be arrested and charged. The WA Premier suggested putting quarantined patients on Rottnest Island.

5-6 International Cruise Ships will enter Fremantle port over the next week.