International COVID-19 Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

Germany:

9,352 confirmed infections
- 3,375 in North Rhine-Westphalia
- 1,641 in Baden-Württemberg
- 1,352 in Bavaria
Death toll: 24 (all in the aforementioned three states except one, who died in Hamburg)



Italy:

31,506 confirmed infections
Death toll: 2,503

[President Johnson]

Germany:

9,352 confirmed infections
- 3,375 in North Rhine-Westphalia
- 1,641 in Baden-Württemberg
- 1,352 in Bavaria
Death toll: 24 (all in the aforementioned three states except one, who died in Hamburg)



Italy:

31,506 confirmed infections
Death toll: 2,503

Italy soon has a higher death toll than 9/11. Scary.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

EU is shutting down borders now. Germany wants to implement to measure immediately. Federal government is currently looking for ways to get travelers home, who are German citizens.

221 confirmed cases
833 suspected cases
5 deaths

We also have the first recovery, that of the first patient.

We're expecting the pandemic to reach its' height in about 2-3 weeks.

Wow, that's a fast rise in Poland. Today, I read the Polish minister for environment is also infected.

Rest of the government has been tested, and all came back negative.

Duda, with his "inspecting" hospitals is literally asking for coronavirus right now. Not to mention disorganizing life for the medical personnel and patients. The man never had an ounce of responsibility and propriety.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I have to say I'm somewhat pleasantly surprised. Aside of panic-buying toilet paper when the news about coronavirus hit, the people, from what I've seen or been told, are largely behaving pretty responsibly in observing the restrictions.

On other news, there's been lot of discussion about whether a presidential election, originally expected to take place in May, should proceed or not.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The English term for the sort of market that birthed this virus is 'a shambles'. Isn't language fun.

[CumbrianLefty]

On other news, there's been lot of discussion about whether a presidential election, originally expected to take place in May, should proceed or not.

I would be surprised if it is not delayed at least a bit.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

A study from researchers in Iran suggests there may end up being up to 3.5 million deaths in Iran:

https://twitter.com/NegarMortazavi/status/1240095415413997569

https://www.dw.com/en/iran-faces-catastrophic-death-toll-from-coronavirus/a-52811895

Researchers at the respected Sharif University of Technology in Tehran have created a computer simulator to test different scenarios for the further spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, across Iran. They concluded that in a best-case scenario — in which the government quarantines all high-risk areas, people strictly obey quarantine rules, and access to sufficient medical supplies is guaranteed — the country would reach the peak of the epidemic in roughly one week, and the death toll would exceed 12,000.

Yet that scenario is unrealistic in all three instances: The government can't impose quarantine, people will not obey quarantine rules, and the medical supply situation is catastrophic thanks to US sanctions and chronic mismanagement.

Accounting for those realities, the researchers estimate Iran will not reach the peak of the epidemic until late May, and they estimate as many as 3.5 million people could die as a result.

F

[Jens]

Heavy critique is mounting at the Ischgl ski resort in Tyrol and the ÖVP-Green government in Tyrol + Governor Platter:

On March 5 (!) already, Icelandic officials declared the Ischgl ski resort a „hotbed“ of infections.

More than 1.000 Scandinavian tourists infected themselves in hotels during vacation there and brought the virus with them into the North.

Ischgl did nothing.

Greed led to ski lifts being open until yesterday (!) afternoon, with huts full of guests sunbathing next to each other or in gondolas or lifts.

Hotels, sunbathing, gondolas and lifts...

More than anything else Ischgl (and some other places like St. Anton and Sölden) is known for being an international winter party destination, the "Alpen-Ballermann" (Alpine spring break) with its "Après-Ski". The local clubs, discotheques and bars are known for overcrowding and massive alcohol consumption. At least one club employee has been tested positive for COVID-19.

Ideal conditions for accelerating an international pandemia.

But the Tyrolean government said that it was "highly unlikely" that a whole group of Icelanders got infected in Ischgl and said that it was more likely that one of them got it somewhere and then transmitted it on the flight...

The Danish government and health authorities are quite clearly saying that a major reason for the spread in DK is the fact that they didn't know that Tirol was a hotbed for infection. About 140 of the first 400 cases (before we stopped testing people without symptoms) had been skiing at Ischlg... And most of them had been at a bar where all the waiters were infected!

[Middle-aged Europe]

Germany has surpassed 10,000 infections today. Currently 11,302 confirmed infections and 27 deaths.

[Silent Hunter]

I'd like to actually see that Iran study; those models tend to give their estimates in terms of 98% probability bands and the 3.5 million number is likely at the top end of that.

3.5 million globally is, alas, not an unrealistic figure.

[afleitch]

I do think if the world and everything in it has to go into lockdown for a year to fight a disease that really doesn't affect many under the age of 50, but cuts like a knife through butter amongst the over 70's that there will be potential riots if not outright revolution unless those who are of working age are adequately secured/compensated by massive economic reform in their favour if they are to sacrifice (for many another) a decade of their working life and years of their social life. Otherwise, as an earlier poster said 'just let the olds die' won't be something said ironically.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Here's a link to a county map of confirmed infections in Poland.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Poland#/media/File:COVID-19_Pandemic_Cases_in_Poland_Powiats.svg

Pretty amazing how the virus is (so far, I'd hate to jinx it) hardly affecting Podlasie, and many counties surrounding Warsaw.

It does look pretty bad in Upper Silesia, which, coincidentally, is the most polluted region in Poland and one of the most polluted in Europe.

[President Johnson]

I have to say I'm somewhat pleasantly surprised. Aside of panic-buying toilet paper when the news about coronavirus hit, the people, from what I've seen or been told, are largely behaving pretty responsibly in observing the restrictions.

On other news, there's been lot of discussion about whether a presidential election, originally expected to take place in May, should proceed or not.

Wow, is this a mentality thing in Poland? Even though Germany is not locked down ("only" nonessential stores are closed, restaurants must close at 6 pm), I see a lot of people outside. Others, including the press, confirm my impressions. People are waiting in lines in cafes and ice cream bars or do parties in the garden. Kids are playing outside, youngsters are hanging around in groups. And it's not just young folks: seniors are walking in the streets and don't seem concerned while shopping in the supermarket. Meanwhile, politicians and scientists are all over the place and issue warnings people should pratice social distancing. Experts are now openly warning a lockdown could be imposed if this behavior doesn't change.

I don't know, maybe we as a society are just egoistic enough to accept that the virus will spread and about 1% of infected people will die as the "price" for normalcy.

[Tirnam]

The epidemic is worsening in France according to the Ministry of Health. 89 deaths in one day.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I have to say I'm somewhat pleasantly surprised. Aside of panic-buying toilet paper when the news about coronavirus hit, the people, from what I've seen or been told, are largely behaving pretty responsibly in observing the restrictions.

On other news, there's been lot of discussion about whether a presidential election, originally expected to take place in May, should proceed or not.

Wow, is this a mentality thing in Poland? Even though Germany is not locked down ("only" nonessential stores are closed, restaurants must close at 6 pm), I see a lot of people outside. Others, including the press, confirm my impressions. People are waiting in lines in cafes and ice cream bars or do parties in the garden. Kids are playing outside, youngsters are hanging around in groups. And it's not just young folks: seniors are walking in the streets and don't seem concerned while shopping in the supermarket. Meanwhile, politicians and scientists are all over the place and issue warnings people should pratice social distancing. Experts are now openly warning a lockdown could be imposed if this behavior doesn't change.

I don't know, maybe we as a society are just egoistic enough to accept that the virus will spread and about 1% of infected people will die as the "price" for normalcy.

Speaking of the "Polish mentality", we kind of have an opinion of people who certainly doesn't fit the stereotypical "German mentality", that is of organized people brought up to follow the rules. Underneath that, however, there's a tendency to quickly self-organize in times of crisis, which became especially famous during the occupation between 1939 and 1945.

Take it with a grain of salt, of course, since we're dealing with stereotypes, though "there's no smoke without a fire".

[Silent Hunter]

Be curious to know how respected the full lockdowns i.e. how many people are being fined. It seems our best hope of getting a lid on this is going to be effective treatments and ultimately a vaccine.

[Storebought]

I do think if the world and everything in it has to go into lockdown for a year to fight a disease that really doesn't affect many under the age of 50, but cuts like a knife through butter amongst the over 70's that there will be potential riots if not outright revolution unless those who are of working age are adequately secured/compensated by massive economic reform in their favour if they are to sacrifice (for many another) a decade of their working life and years of their social life. Otherwise, as an earlier poster said 'just let the olds die' won't be something said ironically.

Those same comfortably-retired-to rich olds who succumb the worst to this disease are also the most influential voting block of every western country, as well as Japan. Public policy -- closing elementary schools and universities in addition to restricting the mobility (and earning power) of the young to preserve the health of the elderly  -- will not change from what it is now.

Besides, there is a case to be made that the mobility restrictions keep the health care system from imploding from being overwhelmed with sick patients.

[FrancoAgo]

ISS informative reports on COVID-19 in Italy, in italian

ISS: Istituto Superiore di Sanità, literally Health Higher Institute

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino%20sorveglianza%20integrata%20COVID-19_16%20marzo%202020.pdf

 https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_17_marzo-v2.pdf

[President Johnson]

Be curious to know how respected the full lockdowns i.e. how many people are being fined. It seems our best hope of getting a lid on this is going to be effective treatments and ultimately a vaccine.

Christian Drosten, one of Germany's top virologists (very smart guy), who is doing a daily radio podcast, is saying the same now.

What I have privately talked about with my boss is the only other solution, at least in theory, could be to isolate folks over 60 and chronically ill as much as possible, while the younger and healthy population does business as usual. The huge majority of them just develops a cold that goes away after one or two weeks (if there are symptoms at all). Experts now agree that you're immune after covid-19 disease. Then we would quickly move to mass immunity.


Edit: Germany has jumped to 12,000 cases.

[Silent Hunter]

That was the initial UK idea, but the Imperial College projections said that would still lead to a quarter of a million deaths in the UK alone.

[Former President tack50]

Not 100% purely related I know; but Kalwejt, I demand an explanation

Translation according to some reddit user:

Translation:

>Attention! Attention! Important information

>Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused panic, and burdened us with many new tasks and sometimes unpredictable behavior from many people, who expect from us and other public services constant assistance, *we ask you to stop all criminal/shameful/indecent activities until further notice*

>We appreciate the expected cooperation in refraining from committing crimes and offenses, and thank you in advance for your cooperation and understanding. We will notify you in a separate announcement when you can return to daily criminal activities and continue the old cops-and-robbers arrangement

[Tintrlvr]

That was the initial UK idea, but the Imperial College projections said that would still lead to a quarter of a million deaths in the UK alone.

Sweden is apparently still taking this approach, as I've heard.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I do think if the world and everything in it has to go into lockdown for a year to fight a disease that really doesn't affect many under the age of 50, but cuts like a knife through butter amongst the over 70's that there will be potential riots if not outright revolution unless those who are of working age are adequately secured/compensated by massive economic reform in their favour if they are to sacrifice (for many another) a decade of their working life and years of their social life. Otherwise, as an earlier poster said 'just let the olds die' won't be something said ironically.

The problem with this perspective, and most such perspectives centred round the idea of general conflict, is that most of us have at least one relative over the age of 70 that we're fond of.

You cannot deliver any political agenda if you base it around the premise that it will hurt people's grandparents. Even the converse doesn't work - many conservative parties seek the votes of the elderly with policies that implicitly or explicitly hurt the young, but to the extent this is admitted it tends to come with an assurance that this is for their own good.

Be curious to know how respected the full lockdowns i.e. how many people are being fined. It seems our best hope of getting a lid on this is going to be effective treatments and ultimately a vaccine.

Christian Drosten, one of Germany's top virologists (very smart guy), who is doing a daily radio podcast, is saying the same now.

What I have privately talked about with my boss is the only other solution, at least in theory, could be to isolate folks over 60 and chronically ill as much as possible, while the younger and healthy population does business as usual. The huge majority of them just develops a cold that goes away after one or two weeks (if there are symptoms at all). Experts now agree that you're immune after covid-19 disease. Then we would quickly move to mass immunity.


Edit: Germany has jumped to 12,000 cases.

There's a good chance that will happen in the UK. They warned that might be recommended for the over 70s and those with serious underlying conditions at the weekend, and given they've already announced a bunch of measures that they were ruling out at the time (school closures etc.) it'll probably materialise by the end of this week. My mother is collecting my 87 year old grandfather tomorrow to bring him to stay with my parents until that's over.

Depending of what the criteria for self-isolation are, I might have to do it too (I'm diabetic.) If so, I'm hoping the conditions aren't too strenuous, because I don't mind having to avoid people for a couple of months, but I'd at least like to be able to work on my allotment.

[Silent Hunter]

Our main hope is this acts like other coronaviruses and becomes a lot less transmittable once the weather warms up. That and we get a pretty hot summer.

[parochial boy]

The British response has been getting a bit of attention. The news here featured it using a Yes, Prime Minister sketch and then showed a load of tabloid headlines that seemed to think it was World War 2 again. Implication being that the UK seems to be having a totally normal one.