COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Person Man]

You’d be a fool to not expect a heavy increase in cases. What really matters now is hospital overload.
As for mask wearing?
I wish Americans were responsible humans, but they aren’t, and I have learned I can’t expect them to act civilized and a mandate is probably unrealistic at this point.

Refuse to accept unvaccinated COVID patients. It's not because we hate those people, its only that we can't treat them AND everyone else AND they failed to mitigate as a class of people.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1461689833919762437

I’ve done it.

[Person Man]

So basically it's August again, but this time aimed at the North.  I am moderately concerned, but as long as the 2 new pills still work, we only need to buy a month or two so they can be widely distributed.

Let’s talk about what we’re going to do instead of what’s going to happen to us. Take this post as an example.

[Person Man]

I am about to roll around on the floor and scream!!

Relax.

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1464622927333232640?s=20

The media is out of control.

[Person Man]

I am about to roll around on the floor and scream!!

Relax.

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1464622927333232640?s=20

If this is true and Omicron is significantly more infectious and able to outcompete more much lethal forms of the virus, this could actually be incredibly good news and finally stamp out pandemic for good.

Omicron then is the thing that makes this “just the flu”.

[Person Man]

South African President Ramaphosa on Omicron:

- It has far more mutations than other variants
- It's responsible for most infections across country
- Our scientists working hard to gather more data, including vaccine effectiveness
- 4th wave likely if cases continue to rise

And I’m sure you are loving this.

The GOP is turning into 12 Monkeys.

[Person Man]

So dramatic. As someone who is pretty skeptical of restrictions at this point, I’m not going to claim that there are many at the moment.

And I live in a state that mandates masks indoors. If you don’t, then you have almost no restrictions at this point.

Imagine thinking that eating out at restaurants means life is back to normal.

What is “normal”?

[Person Man]

It could already be becoming predominant here. I don't care if its vaccine resistant so long as it going to be the thing that makes this "just the flu".

[Person Man]

The United States and other developed countries would be wise to shift their focus beginning next year, and ensuring that countries in the developing world get their inhabitants vaccinated, starting by pushing our drug companies to distribute their vaccines over there.

Never gonna happen. It'll take a calamity infinitely worse, and likely unimaginable by any of us, to convince Americans that they aren't some special chosen people living in a bubble, unaffected by what goes on in other countries.

Or it could be as simple as a desire to keep a rival in its place, and keeping their influence in check:

China’s Xi pledges another 1 billion Covid-19 vaccine doses for Africa

Are we really going to sit back and let China grab all the headlines as it expands its power and influence over the developing world at our expense, including by distributing badly needed COVID vaccines when we have much higher quality versions going unused here at home?  Where is our competitive drive?  

And that’s how you win a Cold War.  Maybe the imminent collapse of western civilization would be that “calamity which is infinitely worst and unimaginable by most”.

[Person Man]

What’s the point of a travel ban now?

[Person Man]

Uh posivity rate...

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1466455961246306304?t=R_XZhWZO5Dr6XLlu8MKIOg&...

It definitely looks less virulent

[Person Man]

Uh posivity rate...

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1466455961246306304?t=R_XZhWZO5Dr6XLlu8MKIOg&...

It definitely looks less virulent

These numbers are really not that helpful for determining how infectious or severe delta is since SA is so much less vaccinated, and I'm sure nobody has gotten a booster there. Europe's numbers over the next few weeks will really give us an idea of where this is going.

If it can breakthrough vaccines completely, sure. That would be bad. If vaccines were at least somewhat effective against it, that would be great.

[Person Man]

Just wondering, what happened to Mu?

I thought it went Alpha, Beta, Gamma,  Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Theta, Eta, Iota, Lambda, Mu, Nu, and then Omicron with Pi, Phi,  Rho, Sigma, Theta, Upsilon, Paraupsilon, Chi, Psy, and then Omega. 

[Person Man]

An interesting question I saw posted on reddit


if covid19 happened in, say, the year 1757, would it have even gone noticed? People were dying of everything back then, there were less old and fat people, etc.

Would a 757 covid outbreak have been something learned about in a history class?

It could have gone unnoticed or have been a slower and more insidious version of the plague. We don’t know.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1468064213314772995?s=20

Are these numbers for a single day? Jesus Christ.

Monday backlog. Most states don't log numbers on weekends.

Yet, a new wave is coming, and it might get even [much?] worse, when Omicron takes over. If it really as contagious as it seems to be, it might overwhelm hospitals, even if it is milder (which we still don't know). And Biden has already ruled out "lockdowns". Well, at least, Omicron made people more willing to vaccinate themselves.

You still think there should be lockdowns? They obviously don’t work.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1471100513353613314?s=21

Interesting. Should our most morally depraved genetic scientists be hard at work genetically engineering an ultra-contagious but much less virulent variant to unleash into the population to out compete all existing variants? This could be accompanied with a new mRNA booster designed specifically for this variant. This “one two punch” could end the pandemic once and for all.

I'm recommending this post for the tweet, but not for the engineering idea. I don't think we should be "playing God" with diseases like this. Your idea reminds me of the movies Planet of the Apes and I Am Legend, in which human-engineered viruses, which were originally devised to "cure Alzheimer's Disease" or to "cure cancer", became virulent infectious diseases and wiped out most of the human race. I'm not suggesting that would happen here, but I wouldn't want to tempt fate.

The idea that a drug could become virulent disease is far-fetched but Bevin was a dirty dick when he intentionally infected his kids with herpes and whoever intentionally gets people sick, even if its a little sick, is a dirty dick too.

[Person Man]

I think it's time we change the thread title, Delta is a Boomer on its way out at this point.

TFW the Boomer Remover is a Boomer.

[Person Man]

Just received my Moderna booster this afternoon; gotta keep the members of my family and community who are immunocompromised safe.  

The booster does nothing for community spread so if that was your reason you probably wasted your time.  Just say you got it for yourself, its okay.

My Mother is immunocompromised and my Aunt (lives with us) works in the medical field as a nurse. So I actually had multiple reasons for getting it; of course my own health was one of those as well... I'm not quite sure what snarky little point you were trying to make here, but it was a pretty weak one.

Buzz off.

Your booster probably didn't do anything for your mother or your aunt.  Especially if your aunt is a nurse.  You don't think she's going to be exposed to it?

So you don't think an immunocompromised person has a better shot at survival in a family group who are all completely vaccinated, boosted and take precautions, Vs. a family group who are completely unvaccinated and take no precautions? That's ridiculous.

You say it 'probably' doesn't help cause you know that some research says that it does. The science behind transmisiblity in the vaccinated Vs. non-vaccinated is in flux right now, sure, but that 'probability' as you put it is more than enough reason for me to get my booster. Even if (and I highly doubt it) the only 'societal' benefit is even just normalizing it and encouraging others to get theirs.

Ah, you revealed yourself right at the end.  Get it because you want to, and because it will "normalize" the booster - as you say.  Thats it though.  There's no research to support you.  Your immunocomprimised mom should get a booster for herself if she wants one.  You getting one is doing absolutely nothing but giving her peace of mind (thanks to the media).  Give yourself a pat on the back.

Uh, the data we have does demonstrate that the vaccines prevent transmission of the virus. It isn’t fully updated with omicron data, but it’s unlikely that it will drop to zero even if it does drop off somewhat.

What a bizarre hill to die on.

I think it's more accurate to say that the vaccine lessens transmission, not that it eliminates transmission entirely. As I've said before, the greatest advantage the vaccine confers on vaccinated individuals is that it lessens the symptoms of coronavirus, if and when they do contract it. It reduces hospitalizations and deaths. In those respects, it is a life-saving elixir.

If the hospitals can stay open, I’m totally fine with there being no restrictions. That’s the goal of the vaccines.

[Person Man]

This has to be the most self-centred population in recent history. It's a good thing most of you weren't alive during WWII or we would almost certainly have lost. It's no wonder this country is fracturing as it is. There is no common cause or common sacrifice anymore. It's all about "me", "me", and "me'. Being forced to wear a mask in a grocery store? That's apparently the new oppression. That is despite the fact that one lives in the United States, where one is not oppressed.

Yeah, essentially this.

TFW you want to outlaw abortion but can’t enforce a mask mandate.

[Person Man]

snipped for space

While I think the restrictions are an overreach at this point, the vaccine was never going to move the country beyond the pandemic when you still have 30-50 million people who refuse to get vaccinated, which is driving the hospitalization rates.

My 67 year old mother was exposed to an omicron-positive person over the weekend.

My mom was hesitant to get her 2nd shot, but finally got it on December 22nd.

Since it was only 3 weeks ago she got her second shot, shouldn’t she in theory be more likely to have an effective vaccine response if she ended up getting the virus compared to someone who got their 2nd shot months ago?

I’m a bit concerned, but I think the studies show that vaccines work better against amicron if infection happens closer to the time you got your shot.

She is not overweight and is in good health, by the way.

Even if they were a month apart, it's still more protection than being unvaccinated, and if I recall, the main reason for the booster doses in the first place is because immunity wanes, and most people are 6-12 months past their second dose by now, if that's of any help.

In a way, you're correct, although as I've noted, we've seen viral surges and restrictions in countries that have much higher vaccination rates than the United States. I recall reading about Singapore, which has one of the highest vaccination rates on the planet, and yet hasn't returned to a mode of normalcy. That's why I'm not convinced we're going to see the lifting of virtually all restrictions even if the vaccination rate increases further, and even if rates are high.

Yeah we've had strip limits of 5 people social gatherings basicaly this entire pandemic and we're at around 95% vaccinated with 50% boostered.

And in Germany and France, they've had strict mask and vaccine mandates, along with vaccine passports, in force or coming into force. There is no logic for countries that have vaccination rates of 80-90% or more maintaining such restrictions.

Germany's vaccination rate is 73% though.

I was referring to Singapore.

Ah, okay... well, it does seem a bit excessive that Singapore tries to curtail social gatherings to five people max. when Germany does the same with ten people at significantly lower vaccination rates. Then again, that's Singapore for you... they're probably also much stricter at enforcement I gather.

Singapore exemplifies why I'm highly skeptical all restrictions will go away after the pandemic is over. It's becoming even clearer to me that some of these measures will be permanent.

IMO, politicians don't do COVID restrictions for "no reason". Okay, some East Asian countries may differ for cultural reasons, I dunno. Things are already way less strict than they had been exactly one year ago and a year from now there will be even less left of it, if anything at all. I mean, I had the very distinct impression during the last couple of weeks that everything my government is doing right now is to smooth the transition from pandemic to endemic and that's basically it. Slowing down the infection rate of Omicron a bit, so not everybody is getting it at the same time, but stretched out over the next three, four months, especially because you can't have all the police, firefighters, hospital personnel, and bus drivers being struck down by COVID all at the same time (in Berlin, public transportation is planning to scale back the bus routes starting tomorrow, simply because they have begun to run out of bus drivers who aren't sick at the moment).

There's going to be some permanent changes, I'm sure of it. Life is never going to fully return to the conditions of 2019.

Well, life is change. It's unrealistic to expect that everything stays always the same, especially with an almost earth-shattering event like a global pandemic. After WWII there was also no going back to a pre-WWII world. That's how history works. But I expect that I can generally live my life as I did before. Most changes will not come from the government anyway, but from the people, as I already noticed for the past two years when friendships have changed/ended/begun because everybody has developed differing levels of concern and caution, and you start to look for COVID compatibility.

Life is change, which is true. But I'm not looking forward to the permanent changes that this pandemic is bringing about.

This is the new 9/11.

[Person Man]

Tested positive for covid this weekend, it was very mild (felt like a weak cold) so I think it was Omicron. I am double vaccinated but no booster for more context.

I was boosted and am getting over a sinus infection. I have many of them, so I didn’t think much of it. Could it of been COVID? Just a lot of sinus pressure and mucus.

[Person Man]

snipped for space

While I think the restrictions are an overreach at this point, the vaccine was never going to move the country beyond the pandemic when you still have 30-50 million people who refuse to get vaccinated, which is driving the hospitalization rates.

My 67 year old mother was exposed to an omicron-positive person over the weekend.

My mom was hesitant to get her 2nd shot, but finally got it on December 22nd.

Since it was only 3 weeks ago she got her second shot, shouldn’t she in theory be more likely to have an effective vaccine response if she ended up getting the virus compared to someone who got their 2nd shot months ago?

I’m a bit concerned, but I think the studies show that vaccines work better against amicron if infection happens closer to the time you got your shot.

She is not overweight and is in good health, by the way.

Even if they were a month apart, it's still more protection than being unvaccinated, and if I recall, the main reason for the booster doses in the first place is because immunity wanes, and most people are 6-12 months past their second dose by now, if that's of any help.

In a way, you're correct, although as I've noted, we've seen viral surges and restrictions in countries that have much higher vaccination rates than the United States. I recall reading about Singapore, which has one of the highest vaccination rates on the planet, and yet hasn't returned to a mode of normalcy. That's why I'm not convinced we're going to see the lifting of virtually all restrictions even if the vaccination rate increases further, and even if rates are high.

Yeah we've had strip limits of 5 people social gatherings basicaly this entire pandemic and we're at around 95% vaccinated with 50% boostered.

And in Germany and France, they've had strict mask and vaccine mandates, along with vaccine passports, in force or coming into force. There is no logic for countries that have vaccination rates of 80-90% or more maintaining such restrictions.

Germany's vaccination rate is 73% though.

I was referring to Singapore.

Ah, okay... well, it does seem a bit excessive that Singapore tries to curtail social gatherings to five people max. when Germany does the same with ten people at significantly lower vaccination rates. Then again, that's Singapore for you... they're probably also much stricter at enforcement I gather.

Singapore exemplifies why I'm highly skeptical all restrictions will go away after the pandemic is over. It's becoming even clearer to me that some of these measures will be permanent.

IMO, politicians don't do COVID restrictions for "no reason". Okay, some East Asian countries may differ for cultural reasons, I dunno. Things are already way less strict than they had been exactly one year ago and a year from now there will be even less left of it, if anything at all. I mean, I had the very distinct impression during the last couple of weeks that everything my government is doing right now is to smooth the transition from pandemic to endemic and that's basically it. Slowing down the infection rate of Omicron a bit, so not everybody is getting it at the same time, but stretched out over the next three, four months, especially because you can't have all the police, firefighters, hospital personnel, and bus drivers being struck down by COVID all at the same time (in Berlin, public transportation is planning to scale back the bus routes starting tomorrow, simply because they have begun to run out of bus drivers who aren't sick at the moment).

There's going to be some permanent changes, I'm sure of it. Life is never going to fully return to the conditions of 2019.

Well, life is change. It's unrealistic to expect that everything stays always the same, especially with an almost earth-shattering event like a global pandemic. After WWII there was also no going back to a pre-WWII world. That's how history works. But I expect that I can generally live my life as I did before. Most changes will not come from the government anyway, but from the people, as I already noticed for the past two years when friendships have changed/ended/begun because everybody has developed differing levels of concern and caution, and you start to look for COVID compatibility.

Life is change, which is true. But I'm not looking forward to the permanent changes that this pandemic is bringing about.

This is the new 9/11.

THG has said something similarly. And I have increasingly come to believe that such will be the case. I fully expect for the TSA to extend the federal mask mandate when it is up for renewal, and I fully expect for many elements of the "Covid regime", such as quarantines and mass testing, to become the norm even after the pandemic is declared over. We're going to have relics of this, just like we still have relics of 9/11.

The ironic thing is that Republicans will campaign against it only to eventually be outflanked by social liberals once those Republicans get into power. It will be a repeat of how the Howard Dean Democrats were replaced by the Obama Democrats. Even though they were 95% of the same people, circumstances change people.

[Person Man]

I'm pretty sure I had COVID early this week. It felt like the mildest cold I ever had, with none of the worst cold symptoms. At worst, my nose ran like a faucet.

Probably wasn't covid--I'm like that nearly year-round.

It was probably bacterial. I am just getting over a sinus infection I had for over 3 weeks. I did a UA at my new PCP and it came back with bacterial infection.

[Person Man]

Day 1 of no restrictions here in Denmark. Feels great. Case numbers are extremely high - more than 40k a day (10 times more than the peak last winter)- but basically nobody gets seriously sick from Omicron here. The total number of people in intensive care is now a paltry 28 persons and is now the lowest since october, which was pre-Omicron. Basically, we have had record high infections throughout january while at the very same time the number of infected in intensive care has fallen by 60%. This is because basically everybody who needed intensive care from COVID had the Delta variant and now that we basically only have Omicron nobody needs intensive care anymore. The remaining 28 are mostly NOT there because of their Omicron infection, but just happen to have it. This is even more pronounced when you look at deaths, where pretty much everyone currently registrered as dying from COVID is actually dying WITH COVID instead, unlike earlier in the pandemic.  

I have supported restrictions and mandates since the beginning, but people need to start to realize that the Omicron variant really isn't very dangerous and that we have ALL the medical tools to combat this disease now in vaccines and therapeutics (most notably Paxlovid from Pfizer). I have no idea why other countries aren't doing like Denmark and the UK at this point. I imagine it has to be right around the corner.

Also, from a political perspective, democrats are gonna get killed if they insist on heavy restrictions way after they cease to be necessary.

EDIT: Forgot to mention that all restrictions were dropped by a united parliament. All parties/groups in parliament supported it, from the far left to the far right.

Our situation is complicated by higher numbers of deaths we’re seeing. It’s not clear whether this is because of lower vaccination numbers, stronger presence of comorbidities, or other things, but it’s giving our leaders pause.

I suspect it is coming in the next few weeks, though. We’ve already seen public health leaders giving the signals.

NY seems to be doubling down on restrictions despite the fact that Omicron peaked here three weeks ago, and now we are basically at the same case levels as we had when this mask mandate was put into effect, supposedly just to stop the holiday surge

I feel like we are in a world of phantom restrictions where no restrictions are ever actually imposed but anti-restriction people feel like they are being imposed anyway.

I think this is because of a couple of factors; many people have responded to the pandemic by adapting their behavior and cancelled social events like holiday parties; NYC restaurants reported mass cancellations of reservations in December. Also, firms (particularly hospitality) have responded to reduced demand and staffing shortages by cutting hours or shutting down. To anti-restriction people particularly here, even though the government didn't do anything, it still feels like a "lockdown" to them and thus they complain about it as if it were one. The big difference, and I've made this point before, is that they are no longer complaining about an overreaching government, but instead attacking their fellow citizens for taking the virus seriously, which is both deplorable and decidedly anti-freedom.

I would say that about 30% of the population will continue to follow very strict COVID precautions indefinitely and that certain states (California, Oregon, Hawaii, Washington, DC, New York, and Illinois) and institutions (colleges, private businesses, etc.) will keep their respective COVID NPIs in place for the long term.

It is really up to people to judge their risk calculus regarding COVID at this point. My risk calculus is less than others, though I still wear an N95 at my job and in certain settings. During the pandemic, I have travelled, attended mass events, and eaten out indoors, though I understand that for others, those activities represent a risk to them.

Same here. I wear masks when I am told and have gotten the booster the weekend before Thanksgiving. However, as soon as I was vaccinated, I stopped wearing masks.

[Person Man]

It's ridiculous to criticize scientists when the alternative was Trump calling COVID a Democratic hoax, saying that they have it under control and the number of cases would soon go to zero, and that injecting bleach and shining a UV light up the ass is a way to cure COVID, and this is only a small sampling. No wonder people turned to Fauci for better guidance.

They aren't interested in science... they'll just ask every single scientist they encounter what their opinion is, and eventually, if they keep doing that, they'll find a few quacks here and there they can point to so they can "legitimize" their gut feeling about how the facts "are".

EDIT - for clarity, I'm not referring to legitimate science on how the COVID era has affected mental health and children. That stuff is a case of "a lot of this stuff is true but it isn't more relevant than thousands of people dying every day'.

If those thousands of people are dying because they wilfully refused an extremely effective vaccine, it absolutely is more important.

At this point, I don't wear a mask because the risk of me getting sick at all is very low and anyone I expose to COVID is either vaccinated or doesn't care if they get COVID.