2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Biden’s Michigan lead is just doing it for me right now.

And I thought you were already...rising.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Trump down to 49.8 in GA.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Why did Biden do worse then Beto in TX? He didn't even win Ft. Worth, despite all the insane hype about high turnout in Houston, he did worse then Beto there as well.

TBH Tarrant can still flip. But TX analysis won't be that good until we get a precinct map.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

There's about 20k mail-in votes out in Clayton too, which is an 85% Biden county with the votes that have already been counted

Can someone give me a good estimate on how likely Blue Georgia is looking?

Good with Fulton missing a chunk and Augusta and Savannah missing over 10%. The margin is already at Biden -30K before all that.

If you had to guess, how much votes would you say Biden wins or loses by?

I'll say he wins by 20K or bit under.

Around this. It depends on margins.

Does anyone know if we can push Perdue under 50?

Probably. He's only over 50 by 8,000 votes right now.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Is there any indication of why AP and Fox News were confident in calling AZ for Biden?

Idk, but I saw someone on Twitter pointed out the total number of votes in Biggs and Lesko district are higher than those in Gallego and Stanton districts.

That shouldn't be a surprise just based on party reg #s. The big question is Schweikert's.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Is there any indication of why AP and Fox News were confident in calling AZ for Biden?

Idk, but I saw someone on Twitter pointed out the total number of votes in Biggs and Lesko district are higher than those in Gallego and Stanton districts.

Total number LEFT or total number COUNTED. If it’s the latter, I feel quite good about it.

Present count total for Gallego: ~172k
Present count total for Stanton: ~293k
Present count total for Lesko: ~357k
Present count total for Biggs: ~368k

I'm okay with this. Remember, Gallego's district is very immigrant-heavy so it never has as many total votes.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Side-topic people haven't brought up much: Anyone else noticing a lot of anger from Republicans/Far-Right against the LP? Jo Jorgensen ended up playing a pretty important role in several states lmao.

GOP vs. LP - Gonna be fun to watch.

Maaybe. Looks like Biden will be over 50% in Pennsylvania and Michigan. We'll have to see about AZ but I'm not sure the 3rd party vote changed anything.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://twitter.com/MSignorile/status/1324195275452407808

This is literally a Veep plot point.

At this point, America would be much better run if we just lived in the Veep timeline.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Late in the game but I voted for Jorgensen. Can’t wait until we have a Republican candidate I feel good about supporting again.

Just random comment, but is it just me or does Atlas have over-representation of blue avatars and conservatives that are soft Trump supporters or NeverTrump people?

RINO Tom, ExtremeRepublican, DTC etc. come to mind, (Sorry if I missed anyone) and I've seen handful of blue avatars with Biden Harris endorsements. Just kind of amazing.

To paraphrase Adlai Stevenson, every thinking person is voting Biden/Harris. And people who enjoy precinct results this much probably aren't braindead.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Late in the game but I voted for Jorgensen. Can’t wait until we have a Republican candidate I feel good about supporting again.

Don't worry, the Republican Party will be back to nominating a warmongerer who doesn't much care about people dying from lack of healthcare before you know it. He won't tweet too much so you'll all love him.

Being condescending like that is totally going to make me switch to red avatar and start voting for your preferred candidate.

Quick reminder that OP isn't exactly a partisan democrat.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Just woke up after 9 hours of sleep (finally!!). Have to go to work so no time to catch up. Could anybody help?

Nevada looks scary close. Are we still confident about that one?

Is Arizona still disputed? It was last night.

Biden has caught up quite a lot in PA - what's the general verdict here?

Any real news on which direction GA is taking?

Nevada should be good because the rest is Vegas mail in. AZ is gonna be close. PA is almost safe Biden--he's passed 270. GA is lean/likely Biden.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Is Perdue under 50?

Decision Desk has him at 50.1%

Aight. It's runoff time.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://twitter.com/LaurenLeatherby/status/1324144924728664069

Wow! I still find it weird so many voted for Hillary but changed their minds.

Also, what's happening in the Sunny Isles Beach/Bal Harbour area?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Is Georgia looking good or bad?

Good but close.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Biden probably does better in Pennsylvania than Wisconsin and Michigan.

Every instinct everyone had about this election was wrong, wow.

Called it almost two years ago!

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=312014.msg6639015#msg6639015

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Hearing a rumor that NV is holding off on releasing the vote count until later today because the GOP SOS didn't want to be responsible giving the 270 votes to Biden.

From?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Its actually hilarious how Dems start trashing Cubans as greedy trash once they decide to swing one way after they nearly voted for Clinton in 2016.

there's like one person on here trashing Cubans.  most people just think Trump manipulated the situation in South Florida like the con man he is.  Bottom line is Miami Dade didn't do it alone.

Yeah, "BIDEN IS A COMMIE WHO'S GOING TO SELL OFF THE COUNTRY TO MADURO" is obviously a crock of crap, but believing it doesn't make you a bad person, just one susceptible to a certain type of fearmongering.

I mean one dem called them worms all the way down, and 3 people supported that, would have at least expected more people to call them out.

Maybe I get trashing rural deep southern white voters, they really aren't gonna vote for the Dems anyway, but these Cubans are absolutely winnable, they are very elastic and key for Dems to winning this state.

I missed that but I'm here to call them out. Not a good move.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Its actually hilarious how Dems start trashing Cubans as greedy trash once they decide to swing one way after they nearly voted for Clinton in 2016.  You do realize these are one of the most elastic groups of voters in atleast a relatively close state?
Why not try winning them instead of trashing them?

That's what Joe Biden will try to do.

Biden will probably do better with them in 2024 if he's running as an incumbent for a second term. Cubanos tend to swing towards the incumbent.

It's also a lot harder to say "Biden is literally the second coming of Fidel Castro" when 4 years of a Biden administration have come and gone and we haven't joined ALBA yet. If I were Biden, I'd just do what I did in 2020 in Florida in 2024 and hope for the W.

Fwiw, it isn't just Dade county Cubans. We really need to take a closer look at what happened in Osceola and Broward, which were also underperformances. Fla might just not have a workable demographic composition, especially if this education polarization is here to stay.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Seems to be a ton of ballots yet to be included in Atlanta per CNN. They're hard at work.

Key question: Atlanta specifically or the rest of Fulton? Because that matters a lot.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Seems to be a ton of ballots yet to be included in Atlanta per CNN. They're hard at work.

Key question: Atlanta specifically or the rest of Fulton? Because that matters a lot.

Isn't the rest of Fulton mostly black anyway? I really don't know now that I think about it, I feel like whenever we talk about Fulton it's always ATL lol

South Fulton yes. But if these ballots are coming out of Milton/Sandy Springs, the margin might not be there for Biden.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Damn, GA is going to flip? Amazing.

If not, PA will. Either way, get the you-know-what ready

I was thinking champagne, but are you referring to lube?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324235329889538049

I was looking at that one. It really came out of the blue but it was also good for Dems in the primaries/early vote so idk what's going on in that special chunk of Appalachia.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Damn, GA is going to flip? Amazing.

If not, PA will. Either way, get the you-know-what ready

I was thinking champagne, but are you referring to lube?

Neither one, you debaucher. Only WesternDemagogue knows what I'm referring to.

I feel left out

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

If Biden wins GA I will exclusively use Georgia based businesses for a year. The good people of Atlanta deserve it. F#ck you AA in Fort Worth--Delta gets my money from now on.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Current turnout:

143 million (+4 from 2016)

What could be left ?

Maybe 5-10 million ?

For 150 in total ?

I think the 160 will definitely not be reached, there will only be a slight increase in turnout after all. Not the big one, as predicted.

More than 10 million imo. There's a lot in CA/NY/IL/etc. to come in.