2020 Poll Hype Thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Poll Hype Thread  (Read 191671 times)
Ferguson97
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« Reply #2125 on: October 29, 2020, 12:10:24 AM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 29, 2020, 12:08:59 AM
Quote from: Ferguson97 on October 28, 2020, 11:38:15 PM
We haven't had a good Ohio poll in forever. Nothing post covid or first debate...
fox news poll not good?

Oh they did, nvm. 538 had an old poll at the top and I just assumed it was the most recent.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #2126 on: October 29, 2020, 04:57:20 AM »
Quote
Nate Cohn:  We're seeing a big drop in undecided voters in the NC Senate race as well, which you'll get tomorrow.

Oh goody! It'll go from 11% to 10% undecided. 

Cohn:  "Really narrowing things down here in terms of undecideds." 
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #2127 on: October 29, 2020, 07:28:24 AM »
So we have a NYT/Siena poll (NC) poll dropping today.  What else?

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Gass3268
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« Reply #2128 on: October 29, 2020, 07:50:55 AM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 29, 2020, 07:28:24 AM
So we have a NYT/Siena poll (NC) poll dropping today.  What else?

Monmouth - Florida
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2129 on: October 29, 2020, 08:20:46 AM »
I'm thinking Q-pac has to have something today. There's no way they would go dark right before the election. Also, Fox usually does Thursdays too
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mark_twain
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« Reply #2130 on: October 29, 2020, 08:24:03 AM »
Added Today
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/


Fla.      
OCT 25-27, 2020
A+
Marist College
1,001   RV   
Biden   
51%
Trump   
46%
Biden   +5


Fla.      
OCT 25-27, 2020
A+
Marist College
743   LV   
Biden   
51%
Trump   
47%
Biden   +4
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2131 on: October 29, 2020, 09:58:33 AM »

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DaleCooper
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« Reply #2132 on: October 29, 2020, 10:00:48 AM »
I'm guessing the NYT poll of North Carolina will be 41-40, Biden +1
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kireev
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« Reply #2133 on: October 29, 2020, 10:01:29 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 29, 2020, 09:58:33 AM



If Trump won't lead with this party ID, this party party registration and this 2016 recalled vote, then I will call NC for Biden.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #2134 on: October 29, 2020, 10:08:23 AM »
Q-Polls today in FL, IA, OH, PA!
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VAR
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« Reply #2135 on: October 29, 2020, 10:08:55 AM »
 Purple heart
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iamaganster123
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« Reply #2136 on: October 29, 2020, 10:12:32 AM »
Nice
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forza nocta
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« Reply #2137 on: October 29, 2020, 10:17:46 AM »
Q-Pac

Pennsylvania: Biden 54-41
Iowa: Biden 51-44
Ohio: Biden 50-47
Florida: Biden 52-45
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Buzz
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« Reply #2138 on: October 29, 2020, 10:20:30 AM »
Predictions for polls today:

NYT (NC): Biden +3 (47-44)

Monmouth (FL): Biden +4 (50-46)

Quinnipiac (FL): Biden +6 (52-46)
Quinnipiac (PA): Biden +10 (54-44)
Quinnipiac (OH): Trump +1 (48-47)
Quinnipiac (IA): Biden +5 (51-46)
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #2139 on: October 29, 2020, 10:23:27 AM »

We'll see whose predictions have been terrible lately...

NYT/Siena (NC): Biden +1

Monmouth (FL): Tie

Qpac (FL): Biden +2
Qpac (PA): Biden +4
Qpac (OH): Trump +2
Qpac (IA): Tie
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #2140 on: October 29, 2020, 10:25:04 AM »
NYT/Siena (NC): Biden +2

Monmouth (FL): Tied

Qpac (FL): Biden +2
Qpac (PA): Biden +8
Qpac (OH): Trump +1
Qpac (IA): Biden+1
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2141 on: October 29, 2020, 10:25:35 AM »
Q-pacs last polls:
PA (10/21) - Biden 51, Trump 43
OH (10/14) - Biden 48, Trump 47
FL (10/7) - Biden 51, Trump 40
IA (10/7) - Biden 50, Trump 45
IA SEN (10/7) - Greenfield 50, Ernst 45

This is good b/c we haven't gotten much high quality stuff in OH recently, while we need confirmation the IA swing towards Biden is real.
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Skye
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« Reply #2142 on: October 29, 2020, 10:25:36 AM »
Big samples for the final NYT/Siena polls:
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ultraviolet
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« Reply #2143 on: October 29, 2020, 10:31:37 AM »
NYT/Siena (NC): Biden +3

Monmouth (FL): Biden +4

QPac (PA): Biden +9
QPac (FL): Biden +6
QPac (IA): Biden +2
QPac (OH): Tie
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2144 on: October 29, 2020, 11:06:11 AM »
Not hype about an upcoming poll, but this seems like a good place to put this:
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2145 on: October 29, 2020, 11:26:07 AM »
Good for Wasserman to call out the slanted RCP averages. I wish more people like him and Silver start saying the obvious instead of treating RCP's garbage as legitimate data journalism.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2146 on: October 29, 2020, 11:51:04 AM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 29, 2020, 11:26:07 AM
Good for Wasserman to call out the slanted RCP averages. I wish more people like him and Silver start saying the obvious instead of treating RCP's garbage as legitimate data journalism.

Yep. Even if you just average the most recent PA polls with A/B rating on 538 over the last week, it averages to Biden +7. Which no surprise is larger than the 538 average of all of them (+5.2) and the RCP avg (+3.5)

But yeah, of all the district level polls we've seen, I would not be surprised if Biden won anywhere from 7-10 in PA.
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iamaganster123
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« Reply #2147 on: October 29, 2020, 11:59:24 AM »
Predictions
NYT/Siena (NC): Biden +4

Monmouth (FL): Biden +5

Qpac (FL): Biden +6
Qpac (PA): Biden +9
Qpac (OH): Biden +1
Qpac (IA): Biden+3
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #2148 on: October 29, 2020, 11:59:56 AM »
*Predictions*

NYT/Siena in NC: Biden +2
Monmouth in Florida: Biden +1
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ultraviolet
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« Reply #2149 on: October 29, 2020, 12:04:35 PM »
Quote from: Unbeatable Titan Gary Peters on October 29, 2020, 10:31:37 AM
NYT/Siena (NC): Biden +3

Monmouth (FL): Biden +4

QPac (PA): Biden +9
QPac (FL): Biden +6
QPac (IA): Biden +2
QPac (OH): Tie

Doing well so far!
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