Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Rookie Yinzer]

(Now we could argue about Warnock being a better candidate than Loeffler).

Please explain how Loeffler is better. I want to hear this... lol

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1343700723142434816

[tagimaucia]

https://twitter.com/winwithjmc/status/1343705120991801347

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Given that each Democratic candidate has raised >$100M and in-person Election Day voting is expected to be heavilty Republican, would it make sense for the campaigns to hire a few thousand people to just drive around Republican areas on Election Day causing traffic jams to discourage people from voting?  

I’d have to think this would be a better use of money than more mailers.

Not like that would be a felony punishable by 1-10 years in prison & a fine of $100,000 or anything.

What exactly would the crime be?  I’m not suggesting they get into accidents or anything.  Just get on the highway at rush hour and drive kinda slow.

Republicans have been doing everything they can to impede early and mail in voting all year.  It’s time the Dems fought back.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Given that each Democratic candidate has raised >$100M and in-person Election Day voting is expected to be heavilty Republican, would it make sense for the campaigns to hire a few thousand people to just drive around Republican areas on Election Day causing traffic jams to discourage people from voting?  

I’d have to think this would be a better use of money than more mailers.

Not like that would be a felony punishable by 1-10 years in prison & a fine of $100,000 or anything.

What exactly would the crime be?  I’m not suggesting they get into accidents or anything.  Just get on the highway at rush hour and drive kinda slow.

Republicans have been doing everything they can to impede early and mail in voting all year.  It’s time the Dems fought back.

One of my colleagues created a conspiracy theory that the Georgia Highway Patrol pays retired people to spend hours driving slowly on major roadways in order to slow down traffic.

[DrScholl]

Given that each Democratic candidate has raised >$100M and in-person Election Day voting is expected to be heavilty Republican, would it make sense for the campaigns to hire a few thousand people to just drive around Republican areas on Election Day causing traffic jams to discourage people from voting?  

I’d have to think this would be a better use of money than more mailers.

Not like that would be a felony punishable by 1-10 years in prison & a fine of $100,000 or anything.

What exactly would the crime be?  I’m not suggesting they get into accidents or anything.  Just get on the highway at rush hour and drive kinda slow.

Republicans have been doing everything they can to impede early and mail in voting all year.  It’s time the Dems fought back.

A campaign paying for that would be voter suppression.

[SCNCmod]

VBM + IN PERSON EARLY
Nov GE: 4.03M (56.5% white, 27.7% black) ---> +28.8 white

.....

12/28: 2.13M (55.2% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.6 white

I think that Ossoff & Warnock have a greater than 50% chance of winning  (and Warnock will receive more votes than Ossoff)- But there are a few things in EV numbers that do worry me:

Age of early voters so far
Runoff EV over 56-years-old: 57% (General election EV: 46%)
Runoff EV under 34-years-old: 15% (General election EV: 21%)

I think Dems really need strong turnout from those under 34... which isn't happening yet.  Hopefully a lot of young ppl are going to vote & mail in ballots in the next 2 days (last minute)... but these stats are the most troubling for Dems imo.

Potential overestimating the Dem advantage based on white/black %
Although the Black % of EV has increased, and the "White-Black %" has decreased compared to the general election- I think this is potentially not as much of an advantage for Dems as it may seem.  Mainly b/c the Percentage of White voters has stayed about the same.  So if you look at all non-white voters... the number is basically the same as the General Election EV.  

Also- I assume a large % of "other race" voters tend to be young voters who are biracial/mixed-race... so if the under 34 voting % in down, that could partially explain why the Black vote is up, "other" voter is down, and white voter is the same.  But considering most non-white voters support Dems and majority of white voters support Republicans... the fact that white EV has remained the same as the general election, would seem to indicate that Dems may not have gained much of a real advantage regarding white/non-white EV%.

But... Potential fools gold in numbers for Repubs also (I hope)
So, while I worry the EV stats that look good for Dems may be misleading- I still think Dems eek out a win, because I hope there is a bit of fools gold for Republicans also....
In that I hope (and think) there is a higher % of Dem white voters in the overall 55% of white voters- compared to the General Election (due to some white Republicans boycotting or sitting out the runoff).

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Given that each Democratic candidate has raised >$100M and in-person Election Day voting is expected to be heavilty Republican, would it make sense for the campaigns to hire a few thousand people to just drive around Republican areas on Election Day causing traffic jams to discourage people from voting?  

I’d have to think this would be a better use of money than more mailers.

Not like that would be a felony punishable by 1-10 years in prison & a fine of $100,000 or anything.

What exactly would the crime be?  I’m not suggesting they get into accidents or anything.  Just get on the highway at rush hour and drive kinda slow.

Republicans have been doing everything they can to impede early and mail in voting all year.  It’s time the Dems fought back.

A campaign paying for that would be voter suppression.

I’m not convinced of this.  “Voter suppression” isn’t itself a crime.  It has to come under a more specific category.  But I don’t think this would constitute voter fraud, voter intimidation, or vote buying, and I also don’t think it would be a civil rights violation since it wouldn’t be targeting a covered minority group.

[brucejoel99]

Given that each Democratic candidate has raised >$100M and in-person Election Day voting is expected to be heavilty Republican, would it make sense for the campaigns to hire a few thousand people to just drive around Republican areas on Election Day causing traffic jams to discourage people from voting?  

I’d have to think this would be a better use of money than more mailers.

Not like that would be a felony punishable by 1-10 years in prison & a fine of $100,000 or anything.

What exactly would the crime be?  I’m not suggesting they get into accidents or anything.  Just get on the highway at rush hour and drive kinda slow.

Republicans have been doing everything they can to impede early and mail in voting all year.  It’s time the Dems fought back.

A campaign paying for that would be voter suppression.

I’m not convinced of this.  “Voter suppression” isn’t itself a crime.  It has to come under a more specific category.  But I don’t think this would constitute voter fraud, voter intimidation, or vote buying, and I also don’t think it would be a civil rights violation since it wouldn’t be targeting a covered minority group.

It literally is. § 21-2-568 of the Georgia Code: interfering with a voter's ability to fill out or cast their ballot is a felony offense punishable by 1-10 years in prison &/or a fine of up to $100,000.

[Pro-Israel, anti-Bibi]

Given that each Democratic candidate has raised >$100M and in-person Election Day voting is expected to be heavilty Republican, would it make sense for the campaigns to hire a few thousand people to just drive around Republican areas on Election Day causing traffic jams to discourage people from voting?  

I’d have to think this would be a better use of money than more mailers.

Not like that would be a felony punishable by 1-10 years in prison & a fine of $100,000 or anything.

What exactly would the crime be?  I’m not suggesting they get into accidents or anything.  Just get on the highway at rush hour and drive kinda slow.

Republicans have been doing everything they can to impede early and mail in voting all year.  It’s time the Dems fought back.

A campaign paying for that would be voter suppression.

The current Supreme Court is very friendly towards voter suppression.

[ProgressiveModerate]

VBM + IN PERSON EARLY
Nov GE: 4.03M (56.5% white, 27.7% black) ---> +28.8 white

.....

12/28: 2.13M (55.2% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.6 white

I think that Ossoff & Warnock have a greater than 50% chance of winning  (and Warnock will receive more votes than Ossoff)- But there are a few things in EV numbers that do worry me:

Age of early voters so far
Runoff EV over 56-years-old: 57% (General election EV: 46%)
Runoff EV under 34-years-old: 15% (General election EV: 21%)

I think Dems really need strong turnout from those under 34... which isn't happening yet.  Hopefully a lot of young ppl are going to vote & mail in ballots in the next 2 days (last minute)... but these stats are the most troubling for Dems imo.

Potential overestimating the Dem advantage based on white/black %
Although the Black % of EV has increased, and the "White-Black %" has decreased compared to the general election- I think this is potentially not as much of an advantage for Dems as it may seem.  Mainly b/c the Percentage of White voters has stayed about the same.  So if you look at all non-white voters... the number is basically the same as the General Election EV.  

Also- I assume a large % of "other race" voters tend to be young voters who are biracial/mixed-race... so if the under 34 voting % in down, that could partially explain why the Black vote is up, "other" voter is down, and white voter is the same.  But considering most non-white voters support Dems and majority of white voters support Republicans... the fact that white EV has remained the same as the general election, would seem to indicate that Dems may not have gained much of a real advantage regarding white/non-white EV%.

Yeah, I do think that the age gap if something to be concerned about as a Democrat, especially in a place like GA where younger people are significantly more likely to vote D than older people.

As for your point about the strong black numbers being a mirage, while that could be true and I get what you're saying, It does seem like black voters as an isolated group have strong turnout, even if other minority groups do not. There is a larger gap between majority black counties in the "black belt" and surrounding majority white counties in terms of % that have voted than there was in the GE. This could mean either that black voters really are having disproportionate turnout in these runoffs relative to white voters, or that the election day vote will be more white than it was in November (or something in between ofc). We saw that in the GE a few of these counties e-day vote was to the left of how the county overall, so I suspect that may flip.

However, even if you take the racial lens out of it, and calculate things based upon how they broke in the GE, it's really hard to find a way to get Democrats current vote lead under 8%. The real concern for me is that the e-day vote has potential to be even more lopsided towards the GOP as it was in the GE because more Democratic voters are voting early.

I'll second your point about the white vote, at least thus far, the white vote has skews from counties where the white vote likely voted to the left of the white vote statewide

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Dem/Biden districts continue to lead turnout, while Trump/GOP districts continue to lag. GOP really counting on major Election Day turnout here.

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1343610178806145024

Democrats need to run ads and mailers saying Perdue and Loeffler are never Trump RINOs who are agents of the deep state who want to force the new world order on patriotic Georgians.

You would need to form a Super Pac with a Trumpy sounding name like Make Georgia Great Again. It is probably too late now, but it would have been brilliant a month ago,

[Motorcity]

David Perdue was CEO of Dollar General

No other company has done more harm to the economies of small southern towns than freaking Dollar General. It devastates dozens of stores whenever one is built.

Along with NAFTA, China in WTO, Walmart, and factory farms

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Anyone else noticed Ossoff physically filled out quite a bit (in a good way) since his 2017 run? Like he looks way better now

[VAR]

Anyone else noticed Ossoff physically filled out quite a bit (in a good way) since his 2017 run? Like he looks way better now

Really? I don't think he looks that much different.

Anyway, speaking of his 2017 run, it'd be hilarious if Ossoff became a U.S. Senator while Handel got BTFO in GA-06.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Anyone else noticed Ossoff physically filled out quite a bit (in a good way) since his 2017 run? Like he looks way better now

Really? I don't think he looks that much different.

Anyway, speaking of his 2017 run, it'd be hilarious if Ossoff became a U.S. Senator while Handel got BTFO in GA-06.

Yeah I think so,

2017 Gaunt Ossoff





2020 Jon Ossoff

[wbrocks67]

Isn't it quite possible that the 55+ over is up compared to GE b/c there's also more older black voters voting right now? Could be attributed to the higher black %?

I see what people are saying about the White % being about the same and blacks being up, but wouldn't Dems want the black % to be up anyway, since they voted 9/10 for Biden? I feel like they'd be okay if Whites stayed the same % but Blacks went up quite a bit, since it's more likely assured votes for Biden.

Not to mention, we're at 2.1M compared to 4M, and we don't know what slice of the white vote this is, but it does appear it's coming from more leftward areas than rightward (i.e. more college+ whites)

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1343700723142434816

Meanwhile, this could be a case of just not reaching the "right GOPers", or it's quite possible the election day turnout GOP is hoping for/needs, doesn't turn out

[hyouzel the predictor]

Are any climate abnormalities forecasted for Jan 5? A mild rainstorm could spell disaster for the GOP....

INVEST IN WEATHER RAYS RIGHT NOW TO WIN THE SENATE BUILD SUPER DUPER RAY TO OWN THE CONSERVATIVES AND INSTALL RADICAL LIBERAL RAPHAEL WARNOCK AND MARXIST JON OSSOFF TO THE SENATE THROUGH WEATHER FRAUD!!!!!!!!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Are any climate abnormalities forecasted for Jan 5? A mild rainstorm could spell disaster for the GOP....

INVEST IN WEATHER RAYS RIGHT NOW TO WIN THE SENATE BUILD SUPER DUPER RAY TO OWN THE CONSERVATIVES AND INSTALL RADICAL LIBERAL RAPHAEL WARNOCK AND MARXIST JON OSSOFF TO THE SENATE THROUGH WEATHER FRAUD!!!!!!!!

It's forecast to be a sunny, pleasant day with highs in the upper 50s in Atlanta.

[wbrocks67]

200K more votes, and white share only went up +0.1. VBM accepted is now about as white as it was back in November, while requests are a full 1% less white.

In person saw another 160K, but only got a few tenths of a pt whiter. Still significantly less white (31.8 compared to 24.2 now)

VBM + IN PERSON EARLY
Nov GE: 4.03M (56.5% white, 27.7% black) ---> +28.8 white
12/15: 483K (53.9% white, 33.4% black) ---> +20.5 white
12/16: 715K (54.5% white, 33.1% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 914K (55.0% white, 32.5% black) —> +22.5 white
12/18: 1.12M (55.4% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.4 white
12/19: 1.34M (55.6% white, 31.6% black) —> +24.0 white
12/21: 1.47M (54.4% white, 32.4% black) —> +22.0 white
12/22: 1.68M (54.8% white, 31.9% black) —> +22.9 white
12/23: 1.88M (55.0% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.4 white
12/24: 2.06M (55.5% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.0 white
12/25: 2.07M (55.5% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.9 white
12/27: 2.10M (55.4% white, 31.5% black) —> +23.9 white
12/28: 2.13M (55.2% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.6 white
12/29: 2.34M (55.2% white, 31.5% black) —> +23.7 white

VBM requests
Nov GE: 1.78M (51.2% white, 31.4% black) ---> +19.8 white
12/10: 1.17M (53.6% white, 31.2% black) ---> +22.4 white
12/13: 1.25M (53.0% white, 31.6% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 1.28M (52.2% white, 32.0% black) —> +20.2 white
12/18: 1.30M (52.0% white, 32.2% black) —> +19.8 white
12/19: 1.31M (51.8% white, 32.4% black) —> +19.4 white
12/21: 1.32M (51.7% white, 32.4% black) —> +19.3 white
12/22: 1.33M (51.6% white, 32.5% black) —> +19.1 white
12/23: 1.34M (51.5% white, 32.5% black) —> +19.0 white
12/24: 1.35M (51.6% white, 32.7% black) —> +18.9 white
12/25: 1.35M (51.6% white, 32.7% black) —> +18.9 white
12/27: 1.35M (51.6% white, 32.7% black) —> +18.9 white
12/28: 1.35M (51.6% white, 32.7% black) —> +18.9 white
12/29: 1.36M (51.5% white, 32.8% black) —> +18.7 white

VBM accepted
Nov GE: 1.32M (53.0% white, 30.3% black) ---> +22.7 white
12/16: 379K (56.9% white, 30.7% black) ---> +26.2 white
12/17: 427K (56.5% white, 31.0% black) —> +25.5 white
12/18: 481K (56.3% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.4 white
12/19: 525K (56.1% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.2 white
12/21: 570K (55.5% white, 31.3% black) —> +24.2 white
12/22: 621K (55.4% white, 31.2% black) —> +24.2 white
12/23: 679K (54.9% white, 31.4% black) —> +23.5 white
12/24: 722K (54.9% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.3 white
12/25: 725K (54.9% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.3 white
12/27: 735K (54.8% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.2 white
12/28: 748K (54.7% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.1 white
12/29: 802K (54.5% white, 31.6% black) —> +22.9 white

IN PERSON EARLY votes
Nov GE: 2.69M (58.2% white, 26.4% black) ---> +31.8 white
12/16: 336K (51.9% white, 35.8% black) ---> +16.1 white
12/17: 487K (53.7% white, 33.9% black) —> +19.8 white
12/18: 642K (54.7% white, 32.8% black) —> +21.9 white
12/19: 812K (55.3% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.3 white
12/21: 902K (53.8% white, 33.1% black) —> +20.7 white
12/22: 1.06M (54.4% white, 32.4% black) —> +22.0 white
12/23: 1.21M (55.0% white, 31.7% black) —-> +23.3 white
12/24: 1.34M (55.9% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.4 white
12/25: 1.35M (55.8% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.3 white
12/27: 1.36M (55.7% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.2 white
12/28: 1.38M (55.5% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.9 white
12/29: 1.54M (55.6% white, 31.4% black) —> +24.2 white

[roxas11]

At this point I'm conviced that Trump is now actively trying hurt Mitch McConnell
there is simply no other way to explain why he is doing things that he knows could clearly hurt his party chances in the upcoming election



He just tweeted this at the same time Bernie Sanders said he will filibuster an override of a veto on the defense bill unless the Senate holds a vote on providing $2,000 direct payments to Americans.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1343916418316824583

Trump is now going out of his way to tell his voters that the 600 dollars check is simply not enough and If Sanders can sideline Perdue and Loeffler even for a couple of days and especially if he can tie them to Republican's opposition to more relief aid  he could conceivably tip the election enough to give Chuck Schumer control of the Senate next week.

If the Dems ends up winning in GA Trumps actions of the past few days will be a big reason for why it happened

[Tender Branson]

Though you shouldn't read too much into early voting numbers (we don't know how Indys vote), things are looking pretty good for the Dems so far.

Unless there's big GOP turnout on election day ...

[wbrocks67]

At this point I'm conviced that Trump is now actively trying hurt Mitch McConnell
there is simply no other way to explain why he is doing things that he knows could clearly hurt his party chances in the upcoming election



He just tweeted this at the same time Bernie Sanders said he will filibuster an override of a veto on the defense bill unless the Senate holds a vote on providing $2,000 direct payments to Americans.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1343916418316824583

Trump is now going out of his way to tell his voters that the 600 dollars check is simply not enough and If Sanders can sideline Perdue and Loeffler even for a couple of days and especially if he can tie them to Republican's opposition to more relief aid  he could conceivably tip the election enough to give Chuck Schumer control of the Senate next week.

If the Dems ends up winning in GA Trumps actions of the past few days will be a big reason for why it happened

Maybe, but I'd also say if Dems win, Ossoff/Warnock just ran a better campaign than Perdue/Loeffler. I'd say that even if Dems lose, O/W still ran a better campaign. Perdue/Loeffler have really proven themselves to be two terrible candidates.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1343925218839056384