Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I stated before, most of our female candidates lost like Gideon, Bollier, and GREENFIELD, McGrath due to fact Pelosi held up the vote on the 1.8T Stimulus package. Our make candidates like Kelly and Hickenlooper won.  Bullock was a flipflopper from the Prez race and Graham had a bump from ACB nomination

2 AA from Progressive caucuses, AA are upset with Pelosi leadership during the stimulus debate and declined to say whether they support her, but they will, due to Elearnor Holmes Norton and Maxine Waters


Its highly likely after the stunt Kevin Mccarthy pulled on Xmas day that Ossoff a Jew and Warnock an AA Paster win.  Atl is the last to report.  After the Hypocrisy that McCarthy indulged in blocking 2K and begging Pelosi to allow a vote on 1.8T. Everything was going right for Rs until Trump spoke out on the 600. As we have 1 more week til the election

[Rookie Yinzer]

Can you please just do us all a favor & shut the hell up about Georgia? You have no credibility whatsoever, so why do you continue to post (especially about this state in particular) when it's well-known that nobody will take a single word you say seriously?

Just cause I’m steadfast in my opinion, relentlessly repetitive in stating it and you consider that to be annoying - does not mean I’m trolling. Don’t take it seriously, fine

It turns out I “misunderestimated” the rate of change in the demographics of Georgia for the GE does not mean the same thing will happen this time around considering the fundamentals of the runoffs are diffrent. No matter how much attention these races get and despite the fact they’ll be more consequential- the turnout (while high) will be lower and likely skew far more favorable to the GOP

But... the electorate is Blacker than it was during the same point in the General Election so your reasoning for being pessimistic is a lie.

You really just need to STFU because you don't live here and are not doing any work here. You don't know anything.

Respectfully.

You think that’s going to hold up? Seriously?

Take my opinion out of the equation for a second

The last week of Early Voting is “blacker” than the other weeks and Election Day won’t be enough to wipe those increases away, so..... yes.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Literally everything seems to cancel out in these races; for every point about why a canidate may be favored, there is an equally strong counterpoint. Some examples:

Early vote data looks good for Democrats but the GOP will likely make a huge turnout on election day

Biden won Georgia but Republican's still got a plurality or majority of votes statewide in both Senate races and in the House PV

Warnock and Ossoff seem like better canidates and have the enthusiasm edge but ticket splitting likely works in favor of Perdue and Loefller

History favors the GOP as being more reliable voters in Georgia but Democratic drop-off in runoffs has been getting smaller and smaller and you even have some who threaten to boycott the runoffs now

Republicans largely outperformed polling this cycle, but Georgia was one of the few places where polling held up pretty well, even underestimating Ds in some cases

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs are hypocritical, they argued that Pelosi should allow a vote on the 1.8T and gained Congressial seats due to Pelosi not allowing the vote and Kevin Mccarthy and Ron Johnson blocked the higher Stimulus amount on 1200/2000. Turnout and history favors the GOP, but the Stimulus bill which has been the political football of this entire election, which Rs raided the SSA trust fund for Tax cuts for rich in 2017/ is the ballgame.

Unemployment, Stimulus and Social Security income all come out of it and in a Pandemic it's not the Treasury's monies it's our monies and we need it

Ossoff and WARNOCK will win

[Adam Griffin]

I took a look at the non-GE voters - more specifically, where they are appearing disproportionately.



This is a mixed bag. There are multiple pros and cons for each side that I can see here, especially depending on whether there's a consistent lean in each jurisdiction for one party or another. So, I'm not too sure what can be said definitively about these voters at a granular/county level (obviously statewide, racial stats suggest this group is friendlier to Democrats than the GE electorate overall).

I'm not saying it's a correlation worth considering, but it reminds me a lot of November's swing map:

[Ancestral Republican]

Can you please just do us all a favor & shut the hell up about Georgia? You have no credibility whatsoever, so why do you continue to post (especially about this state in particular) when it's well-known that nobody will take a single word you say seriously?

Just cause I’m steadfast in my opinion, relentlessly repetitive in stating it and you consider that to be annoying - does not mean I’m trolling. Don’t take it seriously, fine

It turns out I “misunderestimated” the rate of change in the demographics of Georgia for the GE does not mean the same thing will happen this time around considering the fundamentals of the runoffs are diffrent. No matter how much attention these races get and despite the fact they’ll be more consequential- the turnout (while high) will be lower and likely skew far more favorable to the GOP

But... the electorate is Blacker than it was during the same point in the General Election so your reasoning for being pessimistic is a lie.

You really just need to STFU because you don't live here and are not doing any work here. You don't know anything.

Respectfully.

You think that’s going to hold up? Seriously?

Take my opinion out of the equation for a second

The last week of Early Voting is “blacker” than the other weeks and Election Day won’t be enough to wipe those increases away, so..... yes.

If this is true, thank you black people for once again saving America from its own stupidity.

[brucejoel99]

Can you please just do us all a favor & shut the hell up about Georgia? You have no credibility whatsoever, so why do you continue to post (especially about this state in particular) when it's well-known that nobody will take a single word you say seriously?

Just cause I’m steadfast in my opinion, relentlessly repetitive in stating it and you consider that to be annoying - does not mean I’m trolling. Don’t take it seriously, fine

It turns out I “misunderestimated” the rate of change in the demographics of Georgia for the GE does not mean the same thing will happen this time around considering the fundamentals of the runoffs are diffrent. No matter how much attention these races get and despite the fact they’ll be more consequential- the turnout (while high) will be lower and likely skew far more favorable to the GOP

But... the electorate is Blacker than it was during the same point in the General Election so your reasoning for being pessimistic is a lie.

You really just need to STFU because you don't live here and are not doing any work here. You don't know anything.

Respectfully.

You think that’s going to hold up? Seriously?

Take my opinion out of the equation for a second

The last week of Early Voting is “blacker” than the other weeks and Election Day won’t be enough to wipe those increases away, so..... yes.

If this is true, thank you black people for once again saving America from its own stupidity.

https://twitter.com/not_carlisle/status/1325146039653814275

[Ancestral Republican]

Can you please just do us all a favor & shut the hell up about Georgia? You have no credibility whatsoever, so why do you continue to post (especially about this state in particular) when it's well-known that nobody will take a single word you say seriously?

Just cause I’m steadfast in my opinion, relentlessly repetitive in stating it and you consider that to be annoying - does not mean I’m trolling. Don’t take it seriously, fine

It turns out I “misunderestimated” the rate of change in the demographics of Georgia for the GE does not mean the same thing will happen this time around considering the fundamentals of the runoffs are diffrent. No matter how much attention these races get and despite the fact they’ll be more consequential- the turnout (while high) will be lower and likely skew far more favorable to the GOP

But... the electorate is Blacker than it was during the same point in the General Election so your reasoning for being pessimistic is a lie.

You really just need to STFU because you don't live here and are not doing any work here. You don't know anything.

Respectfully.

You think that’s going to hold up? Seriously?

Take my opinion out of the equation for a second

The last week of Early Voting is “blacker” than the other weeks and Election Day won’t be enough to wipe those increases away, so..... yes.

If this is true, thank you black people for once again saving America from its own stupidity.

https://twitter.com/not_carlisle/status/1325146039653814275

Good point.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Given that each Democratic candidate has raised >$100M and in-person Election Day voting is expected to be heavilty Republican, would it make sense for the campaigns to hire a few thousand people to just drive around Republican areas on Election Day causing traffic jams to discourage people from voting? 

I’d have to think this would be a better use of money than more mailers.

[brucejoel99]

Given that each Democratic candidate has raised >$100M and in-person Election Day voting is expected to be heavilty Republican, would it make sense for the campaigns to hire a few thousand people to just drive around Republican areas on Election Day causing traffic jams to discourage people from voting? 

I’d have to think this would be a better use of money than more mailers.

Not like that would be a felony punishable by 1-10 years in prison & a fine of $100,000 or anything.

[Matty]

Former camper at Warnock’s church camp recounts abuse that took place.

Among the indignities 12-year-old Anthony Washington endured at the church camp overseen by Reverend Raphael Warnock: counselors who tossed urine on him and locked him outside his cabin overnight.

Washington, now 30, recounted the events in an interview with the Washington Free Beacon and said his experience at the camp resulted in a 2003 lawsuit that ended two years later, when Washington says he and his family received a large financial settlement.

Washington’s account of the 2002 events provides the first direct insight into the alleged abuse and neglect that transpired at Camp Farthest Out, which Warnock oversaw as senior pastor of Maryland's Douglas Memorial Community church, and raises new questions for the Democrat, who is currently vying for a Senate seat in Georgia.

Washington expressed surprise when he was told Warnock is currently running for U.S. Senate in Georgia. "I don’t think nobody like [Warnock] should be running for damn Senate nowhere, running a camp like that," he told the Free Beacon. "He should not be running for government."

Warnock has faced scrutiny over his 2002 arrest for allegedly obstructing a child abuse investigation by Maryland State Police that centered on the camp's treatment of children. Washington's account is buttressed by records from the Maryland Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, obtained by the Free Beacon earlier this month, which indicated that campers were routinely left unsupervised; staffers were not subject to required criminal background check; and at least five cases of child abuse or neglect were brought against the camp's director, who was ultimately forced to resign.

https://t.co/q9B7xnHq5t?amp=1

[wbrocks67]

VBM + IN PERSON EARLY
Nov GE: 4.03M (56.5% white, 27.7% black) ---> +28.8 white
12/15: 483K (53.9% white, 33.4% black) ---> +20.5 white
12/16: 715K (54.5% white, 33.1% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 914K (55.0% white, 32.5% black) —> +22.5 white
12/18: 1.12M (55.4% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.4 white
12/19: 1.34M (55.6% white, 31.6% black) —> +24.0 white
12/21: 1.47M (54.4% white, 32.4% black) —> +22.0 white
12/22: 1.68M (54.8% white, 31.9% black) —> +22.9 white
12/23: 1.88M (55.0% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.4 white
12/24: 2.06M (55.5% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.0 white
12/25: 2.07M (55.5% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.9 white
12/27: 2.10M (55.4% white, 31.5% black) —> +23.9 white
12/28: 2.13M (55.2% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.6 white

VBM requests
Nov GE: 1.78M (51.2% white, 31.4% black) ---> +19.8 white
12/10: 1.17M (53.6% white, 31.2% black) ---> +22.4 white
12/13: 1.25M (53.0% white, 31.6% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 1.28M (52.2% white, 32.0% black) —> +20.2 white
12/18: 1.30M (52.0% white, 32.2% black) —> +19.8 white
12/19: 1.31M (51.8% white, 32.4% black) —> +19.4 white
12/21: 1.32M (51.7% white, 32.4% black) —> +19.3 white
12/22: 1.33M (51.6% white, 32.5% black) —> +19.1 white
12/23: 1.34M (51.5% white, 32.5% black) —> +19.0 white
12/24: 1.35M (51.6% white, 32.7% black) —> +18.9 white
12/25: 1.35M (51.6% white, 32.7% black) —> +18.9 white
12/27: 1.35M (51.6% white, 32.7% black) —> +18.9 white
12/28: 1.35M (51.6% white, 32.7% black) —> +18.9 white

VBM accepted
Nov GE: 1.32M (53.0% white, 30.3% black) ---> +22.7 white
12/16: 379K (56.9% white, 30.7% black) ---> +26.2 white
12/17: 427K (56.5% white, 31.0% black) —> +25.5 white
12/18: 481K (56.3% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.4 white
12/19: 525K (56.1% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.2 white
12/21: 570K (55.5% white, 31.3% black) —> +24.2 white
12/22: 621K (55.4% white, 31.2% black) —> +24.2 white
12/23: 679K (54.9% white, 31.4% black) —> +23.5 white
12/24: 722K (54.9% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.3 white
12/25: 725K (54.9% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.3 white
12/27: 735K (54.8% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.2 white
12/28: 748K (54.7% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.1 white

IN PERSON EARLY votes
Nov GE: 2.69M (58.2% white, 26.4% black) ---> +31.8 white
12/16: 336K (51.9% white, 35.8% black) ---> +16.1 white
12/17: 487K (53.7% white, 33.9% black) —> +19.8 white
12/18: 642K (54.7% white, 32.8% black) —> +21.9 white
12/19: 812K (55.3% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.3 white
12/21: 902K (53.8% white, 33.1% black) —> +20.7 white
12/22: 1.06M (54.4% white, 32.4% black) —> +22.0 white
12/23: 1.21M (55.0% white, 31.7% black) —-> +23.3 white
12/24: 1.34M (55.9% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.4 white
12/25: 1.35M (55.8% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.3 white
12/27: 1.36M (55.7% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.2 white
12/28: 1.38M (55.5% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.9 white

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This matters, but Warnock is an Evangelist and in a Pandemic, when the poor needs help, he is an asset in this race, that's why he still polls ahead of Loeffler that dumped stocks during Covid, like Perdue did, that's why Ossoff will win too he is Jewish, multi diversity

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I just early voted for Ossoff and Warnock

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Loeffler and Perdue dumped stocks which has damaged the well for their campaigns, who are they to criticize

[wbrocks67]

Former camper at Warnock’s church camp recounts abuse that took place.

Among the indignities 12-year-old Anthony Washington endured at the church camp overseen by Reverend Raphael Warnock: counselors who tossed urine on him and locked him outside his cabin overnight.

Washington, now 30, recounted the events in an interview with the Washington Free Beacon and said his experience at the camp resulted in a 2003 lawsuit that ended two years later, when Washington says he and his family received a large financial settlement.

Washington’s account of the 2002 events provides the first direct insight into the alleged abuse and neglect that transpired at Camp Farthest Out, which Warnock oversaw as senior pastor of Maryland's Douglas Memorial Community church, and raises new questions for the Democrat, who is currently vying for a Senate seat in Georgia.

Washington expressed surprise when he was told Warnock is currently running for U.S. Senate in Georgia. "I don’t think nobody like [Warnock] should be running for damn Senate nowhere, running a camp like that," he told the Free Beacon. "He should not be running for government."

Warnock has faced scrutiny over his 2002 arrest for allegedly obstructing a child abuse investigation by Maryland State Police that centered on the camp's treatment of children. Washington's account is buttressed by records from the Maryland Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, obtained by the Free Beacon earlier this month, which indicated that campers were routinely left unsupervised; staffers were not subject to required criminal background check; and at least five cases of child abuse or neglect were brought against the camp's director, who was ultimately forced to resign.

https://t.co/q9B7xnHq5t?amp=1

Why are we posting Free Beacon BS

This was a camp "he oversaw", so its not like he knew about every little incident that happened. This is grasping at straws

[It’s so Joever]

Former camper at Warnock’s church camp recounts abuse that took place.

Among the indignities 12-year-old Anthony Washington endured at the church camp overseen by Reverend Raphael Warnock: counselors who tossed urine on him and locked him outside his cabin overnight.

Washington, now 30, recounted the events in an interview with the Washington Free Beacon and said his experience at the camp resulted in a 2003 lawsuit that ended two years later, when Washington says he and his family received a large financial settlement.

Washington’s account of the 2002 events provides the first direct insight into the alleged abuse and neglect that transpired at Camp Farthest Out, which Warnock oversaw as senior pastor of Maryland's Douglas Memorial Community church, and raises new questions for the Democrat, who is currently vying for a Senate seat in Georgia.

Washington expressed surprise when he was told Warnock is currently running for U.S. Senate in Georgia. "I don’t think nobody like [Warnock] should be running for damn Senate nowhere, running a camp like that," he told the Free Beacon. "He should not be running for government."

Warnock has faced scrutiny over his 2002 arrest for allegedly obstructing a child abuse investigation by Maryland State Police that centered on the camp's treatment of children. Washington's account is buttressed by records from the Maryland Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, obtained by the Free Beacon earlier this month, which indicated that campers were routinely left unsupervised; staffers were not subject to required criminal background check; and at least five cases of child abuse or neglect were brought against the camp's director, who was ultimately forced to resign.

https://t.co/q9B7xnHq5t?amp=1

Is that the smear your side is conjuring to distract the American people from your godawful plans to pickpocket the average American some more?
Is that how you get voters to ignore the GOP’s support of one of the worst healthcare systems in any industrialized nation?
Is that how you get voters to ignore your party’s unhinged beliefs on the economy which have created most of the current problems we see today?

Hopefully Democrats ignore these smears just like the GOP ignores the needs of the American people.
Even if true, Warnock is still infinitely better for office than inside-trader Loeffler.

[skbl17]

I've decided to come out of my holiday break to briefly talk about my experience with these runoffs.

First of all, I hate them. Back in October 2019, I predicted I would hate this campaign period, and developments have proven me right. Watching TV is really, really depressing right now in metro Atlanta; entire commercial breaks are nothing but back-to-back campaign ads.

TV and radio stations are making bank, though.

As for the polls, SurveyUSA has a good track record in Georgia, but with the exception of the 2018 governor's race, they tend to overestimate the winner's victory margin. It's perfectly plausible that Ossoff and Warnock will win, but they are not winnin' by 5 and 7 points. Just no. JMC Analytics will be releasing a poll on New Year's Eve, and I feel that will be the last "good quality" poll we get.

It's important to never focus on a single poll, but look at the polling average instead. Polling averages in Georgia in November were bang on, unlike those of quite a few other states, and right now they're pointing to line-ball tossup races: perfectly reasonable and in line with conventional wisdom. Nothing surprising.

As for on-the-ground campaigning, keep in mind that I live in Kennesaw (Cobb County,) which is one of those college-educated, Dem-tilting suburban areas the GOP will need to improve in to have a good chance of holding one or both seats. I will say this, the "sign war" the GOP dominated in November has completely shifted to the Dems: I can count on one hand the number of Perdue and Loeffler signs I see when I'm doing my errands.

Hell, there's a family in nearby Acworth with a GIANT Trump 2020 flagpole on their property; the Trump flag is still up right now, but there are no Perdue or Loeffler signs to be found. In fact, most of the yards and commercial properties where I usually see signs for all sort of Republican candidates don't seem to have any up. Maybe that will change, or maybe they're voting anyway but won't bother with signs.

As for Warnock and Ossoff? I'm seeing quite a few of their signs, even in places where there were no Biden signs in November.

Of course, signs don't win elections (Casey Cagle would be governor if that was the case,) but they can serve as a superficial sign of enthusiasm for a candidate, especially if they show up in people's front yards.

On the mail front, my family's been getting swamped with mail from both sides. There are days where literally all of our mail come from the campaigns. I will say that the GOP mailers are almost universally negative to the point of ridiculousness (the one where they say Ossoff and Warnock will destroy Christmas was a fun one,) but the Dem mailers have been a mixed bag: some attacks, some positive messages, and even some handwritten postcards. All of them go straight into the trash; we don't discriminate.

We haven't seen any in-person canvassers, which is no different from November.

I'm the only reliable voter in my family. That said, everyone voted in November, and everyone voted in these runoffs. Cobb Dems may like that, considering the rest of my family (particularly my parents) considers the GOP to be universally racist or enabling racism, but they don't usually bother to vote (particularly in runoffs,) so the red avatars around here may like to hear that they all voted this time, and judging by their conversations, voted straight-ticket Dem.

I voted early in-person, which is my SOP when there's only two or three races on the ballot. This is very anecdotal, but the line of people waiting to vote on the Saturday I went to vote seemed younger and more diverse than a similar line on a Saturday in October, when my brother voted early in-person. Again, anecdotal, but it does at least give a bit of credence to the idea of the current in-person early voting crowd being more "Dem-friendly" than similar crowds in November. We'll see if that holds up in the last four days of early in-person voting.

My ratings for the runoffs (which you can see in my signature) remain unchanged: pure tossups for both. I will say this, though: unless something dramatically changes, it seems like the GOP is putting all their eggs into the Election Day basket. That could work out for them, particularly if there's high election day turnout, but we'll have to wait and see. I do think Perdue and Loeffler will do better than Trump's 60% of the election day vote, but how much better is anyone's guess.

[QAnonKelly]

Mail count was seven today. I also got a “political call” that I ignored and have been texted twice.

[wbrocks67]

Dem/Biden districts continue to lead turnout, while Trump/GOP districts continue to lag. GOP really counting on major Election Day turnout here.

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1343610178806145024

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The R users on this forum says Perdue and Loeffler are favored and they criticize Warnock, Perdue and Loeffler dumped stocks during the Pandemic, we are lucky to have Ossoff a Jewish candidate and a Paster Warnock during Xmas time during a Pandemic that wants 2K checks and Kevin Mccarthy objected to 2K on Xmas and Leader McConnell is silent on the checks and allowed Ron Johnson to object to 1200 stimulus.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Today, Democrat's estimated lead is up to 9.7 points in my model, up from 8.9 yesterday. The GOP is going to need to net a lot of votes on e-day, though as others have pointed out, their strategy seems to be betting on the e-day vote.



As we well know, all it takes is massive e-day turnout for these seemingly large D leads to dissolve, but everyday the gap doesn't close means more votes the GOP will have to net.

[Rookie Yinzer]

^^^ So your model includes all the votes cast/returned up to 12/27?

My brother voted in person for Ossoff/Warnock today. He said the line was long (moved quick) and it was pretty much all Black people. We do have three other voting locations for the first time and we are a polarized county as far as where people live so that has a lot to do with the demographics of where people early vote.

[ProgressiveModerate]

^^^ So your model includes all the votes cast/returned up to 12/27?

My brother voted in person for Ossoff/Warnock today. He said the line was long (moved quick) and it was pretty much all Black people. We do have three other voting locations for the first time and we are a polarized county as far as where people live so that has a lot to do with the demographics of where people early vote.

Yes that is correct, it’s compiled all votes that have been cast.

My model also seems to support the strong AA turnout take, as you can see Dems having leads in many black belt counties that Biden ultimately lost to Trump.

[Frenchrepublican]

Literally everything seems to cancel out in these races; for every point about why a canidate may be favored, there is an equally strong counterpoint. Some examples:

Early vote data looks good for Democrats but the GOP will likely make a huge turnout on election day

Biden won Georgia but Republican's still got a plurality or majority of votes statewide in both Senate races and in the House PV

Warnock and Ossoff seem like better canidates and have the enthusiasm edge but ticket splitting likely works in favor of Perdue and Loefller

History favors the GOP as being more reliable voters in Georgia but Democratic drop-off in runoffs has been getting smaller and smaller and you even have some who threaten to boycott the runoffs now

Republicans largely outperformed polling this cycle, but Georgia was one of the few places where polling held up pretty well, even underestimating Ds in some cases

Yeah, it's the definition of a tossup race.

(Now we could argue about Warnock being a better candidate than Loeffler).