🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Sozialliberal]

Why does it rate traffic light as less likely than R2G?

This forecaster asked scholars in political science about how likely they would evaluate certain coalition options. I don't know how the methodology exactly works (I think they might have in their Q&A - in English too btw - and explained thoroughly how they got to the result), but I assume that at least based on their manifestos, R2G has many more political similarities than a traffic light coalition.

Then again, the scholar survey might be somewhat older, and considering that Die Linke is a party with lots of internal struggle, I could easily some parts of the party opposing R2G and rather want the party to recover as left-wing force in opposition to any government involving the Greens. If R2G achieves a narrow majority only, that might be a crucial factor.

I'm still not too convinced that a traffic light coalition is all but certain, since - as some posters had stated before - the FDP base is more conservative than the party leadership and a potential coalition treaty might be up for a vote among the membership base (that was planned with Jamaica in 2017). The sole prospect of governing with the Greens would be a reason for some parts of the base to reject a coalition treaty, although the FDP might just opt for a convention, where an approval would be very likely.

My (admittedly not very well informed) opinion is that if the FDP leadership is sure enough that it wants traffic light they will just go for a convention, to ensure it passes.

That's possible, but Scholz would have to put an attractive offer on the table to convince the FDP leadership that traffic light is better than Jamaica.

Die Linke definitely has its place in the political spectrum, but they should get rid of the Maduro apologists on their left fringe. Maybe it would help if they dropped out of parliament. There are reasonable people in the reformist wing of the party.

Something I've noticed is that a lot of polls have had Die Linke near the threshold, but I haven't seen any that have had them at or below the threshold. Is there any real sense that they're in danger of missing out? I'm guessing that they're not going to win enough direct seats for the threshold not to matter.

The latest Allensbach poll has Die Linke at 5% (see previous page). Well, I remember that none of the polls had the FDP below the threshold shortly before the 2013 election, but they ended up below it anyway. Yes, the direct seats would probably save Die Linke in such a scenario, but I'm not 100% sure (maybe 80%).

[H. Ross Peron]

If the FDP absolutely ruled out a traffic light coalition but the SPD was the largest party and open to R2G, would Greens prefer the latter to a Jamaica coalition if the ball was in their court.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Do you think Böhmermann's extremely radical politicking for the Greens and the SED (including that subtle witch-hunt against Mockridge) in both his last broadcasts will help those two parties or rather hurt them?

[sirius3100]

If Die Linke were to fail the threshold but get the 3 seats, the party would still face harder times. In that case, the party would only form a "Gruppe" instead of a "Fraktion", basically a parliamentary caucus with less rights and reduced funding, meaning not only lots of its MPs would become unemployed, but also large parts of the party's parliamentary staff.

If they miss the 5% just barely, Die Linke could still get 5% or more of the seats in the Bundestag and be considered a Fraktion.

Also this rule is only codified in the Geschäftsordnung (
"rules of procedure"?) of the Bundestag and could be changed quite easily if Die Linke would take part in a coalition for example.

Still wouldn't be good for Die Linke to miss the treshold though.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Since nobody wanted to talk about the bellwethers I suggested, what about constituencies Nos. 1 and 15?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Die Linke definitely has its place in the political spectrum, but they should get rid of the Maduro apologists on their left fringe. Maybe it would help if they dropped out of parliament. There are reasonable people in the reformist wing of the party.

Something I've noticed is that a lot of polls have had Die Linke near the threshold, but I haven't seen any that have had them at or below the threshold. Is there any real sense that they're in danger of missing out? I'm guessing that they're not going to win enough direct seats for the threshold not to matter.

Iirc all they need is one direct seat to get a share of seats in the Bundestag in line with their vote share, but the laws might have changed.

To astonish you even more: The nationwide 5% threshold only became effective in 1953. For the very first federal election in West Germany, a party needed to pass the 5% hurdle in merely one state in order to enter the Bundestag. That's how eleven parties managed to join the parliament.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/lennybronner/status/1441426883468578819

[President Johnson]

So looks like the polls are done now? You have to go back to late August to find a survey the Union was ahead last time. I can't think of an election anywhere a party or candidate lost despite leading all polls in over three weeks. However, I'm still far from saying a first place finish for the SPD is a done deal yet, even though the Union was overestimated in 2017.

My concern is that some reluctant Union sympathizers finally vote for them to prevent the SPD from winning. Given there are still a lot of undecideds and not so long ago the CDU/CSU was over 30% it's certainly possible. However, it's also possible some Green voters switch over to SPD to prevent a Jamaica coalition since we know most of them prefer a coaltion with the Social Democrats.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

How will Election Day play out for those of us following for the first time?

Exit polls will be out at 6 pm local time. They are usually quite good and give you a rough idea about what's going on. Over the course of the evening, the actual results will be merged with the projection. If the results are not super close, you can with good conscience turn your TV off at 8 pm.

Speaking of exit polls...
The hashtag #Wahlbetrug has been trending on Twitter owing to a banner displayed in the midst of the quiz show The Chase:

https://twitter.com/M_Ziesmann/status/1441463213661560832

[Mike88]

Does Germany also have the famous "reflection day ", where there's no campaign, publication of polls, etc?

[Astatine]

Does Germany also have the famous "reflection day ", where there's no campaign, publication of polls, etc?

Not really in that sense, today is the final day of campaigning and well, tomorrow is election day. I am not sure if pre-election polls are allowed to be published on election day, at least no reputable pollster does that.

Nevertheless, Germany is quite strict when it comes to publishing preliminary results of post-election exit polls. Anyone who publishes those (they have some level of uncertainty, especially now with increased postal voting) can be fined with up to 50,000 €. It happens undercover though, since the party leadership gets access to the data - I had also received leaked exit poll data of the 2018 elections in Hesse and Bavaria, which was somewhat accurate.

Postal voting increasingly becomes a strategical challenge for pollsters, and right now there is a pending lawsuit on whether pollsters are allowed to ask the respondents whether they have already voted by mail and if yes, for whom two days ago, a court ruled that they are allowed to include postal voting in their questionnaires. Opponents of this method argue that this violates one of the constitutional election principles, secrecy.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Postal voting increasingly becomes a strategical challenge for pollsters, and right now there is a pending lawsuit on whether pollsters are allowed to ask the respondents whether they have already voted by mail and if yes, for whom. Opponents of this method argue that this violates one of the constitutional election principles, secrecy.

Do you mean the Forsa-lawsuit? As far as I know, Forsa has won that one.

It happens undercover though, since the party leadership gets access to the data - I had also received leaked exit poll data of the 2018 elections in Hesse and Bavaria, which was somewhat accurate.

Even low-ranking party base members might know what the exit polls look like before they are published if they are members of the right group chat...

[Mike88]

Does Germany also have the famous "reflection day ", where there's no campaign, publication of polls, etc?

Not really in that sense, today is the final day of campaigning and well, tomorrow is election day. I am not sure if pre-election polls are allowed to be published on election day, at least no reputable pollster does that.

Nevertheless, Germany is quite strict when it comes to publishing preliminary results of post-election exit polls. Anyone who publishes those (they have some level of uncertainty, especially now with increased postal voting) can be fined with up to 50,000 €. It happens undercover though, since the party leadership gets access to the data - I had also received leaked exit poll data of the 2018 elections in Hesse and Bavaria, which was somewhat accurate.

Postal voting increasingly becomes a strategical challenge for pollsters, and right now there is a pending lawsuit on whether pollsters are allowed to ask the respondents whether they have already voted by mail and if yes, for whom two days ago, a court ruled that they are allowed to include postal voting in their questionnaires. Opponents of this method argue that this violates one of the constitutional election principles, secrecy.

Right, so today is a normal campaign day. The criticisms of those who oppose questioning voters who cast a ballot by mail, doesn't make sense, IMO. If this violates secrecy, then asking people as they leave their polling station "Who did you vote for?" in order to make an exit poll, also violates secrecy.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

R₂G:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1441553038817193987

[parochial boy]

Oh great, just what we need. Another load of asocial economic migrants who will just come here, refuse to integrate and commit a wave of white collar crime, money laundering and tax fraud.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Oh great, just what we need. Another load of asocial economic migrants who will just come here, refuse to integrate and commit a wave of white collar crime, money laundering and tax fraud.

At least you had the right to decide upon if you allow such people to infiltrate into you country.

Btw, it's "anti-social", not "asocial".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

When looking at the results of the 2017 elections, it can be noted that the modest gains Die Linke made nationwide (9.1 %, +0.5) were all caused by improving the result in the West overall (7.4 %, +1.8), while their vote share in the East plummeted strongly (17.8 %, -4.9). Most of Die Linke's losses right now can be attributed to the party falling back to 2013/2005 (5.6, 4.9 % respectively) level in the West, while the party's vote share in the East that had always saved them before might not be enough to offset a potential debacle.

Yes, but the few polls we've had of Eastern states this time have mostly shown some pretty sharp drops. And of course, in the end, they have the same structural problem in the East that other postcommunist parties have had and it's possible that the direction of travel will end up being as relentless. Again, I suspect that (one way or the other) it works out for them this time, but I do wonder just a little.

[buritobr]

Anymore poll expected for this night in Germany?
The most recent poll is a Wahlkreisprognose. It is the unique poll in which there were data collected on September 24th. The other ones had data collected until September 23rd.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_German_federal_election

[walleye26]

I have a question here. I have been talking to a few foreign exchange students I met who are German about their thoughts. (They mostly are supporting Schultz/SPD or the Greens). They all mostly said the FDP is the “business party, and they really don’t care much to get involved with social issues.”

My question is, would the FDP be similar to the Libertarian party in America? Or, would it be more like “country club/business Republicans?” One of them mentioned the FDP is the “party for the rich.” I figured you guys would know more.

[President Johnson]

Anymore poll expected for this night in Germany?
The most recent poll is a Wahlkreisprognose. It is the unique poll in which there were data collected on September 24th. The other ones had data collected until September 23rd.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_German_federal_election

Doesn't look like. There was a final one for the MV and Berlin state elections showing the SPD ahead though. I thought maybe INSA was putting out another one, but there hasn't been another national poll. On election days itsself it's no longer permitted as far as I know.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

My question is, would the FDP be similar to the Libertarian party in America? Or, would it be more like “country club/business Republicans?”

Definitely the latter.
Oh, and your acquaintances are absolutely right about the FDP: It's a sheer and pure economic-liberal pro-business party.
It's only and merely and solely Atlas that thinks they're social-liberal.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Just in case nobody has mentioned it yet:

Share of the vote-by-mail ballot in Rhineland-Palatinate:

2017: 27.8%
2021: 48.7%

[President Johnson]

My question is, would the FDP be similar to the Libertarian party in America? Or, would it be more like “country club/business Republicans?”

Definitely the latter.
Oh, and your acquaintances are absolutely right about the FDP: It's a sheer and pure economic-liberal pro-business party.
It's only and merely and solely Atlas that thinks they're social-liberal.

The question is how "social liberalism" is truly defined. It's certainly not the same all over the world and especially comparing the US to Europe.

True is that the FDP supports a number of policies that people associate with "social liberalism" such as same sex marriage, decriminalization of cannabis and abortion rights. These issues and a modern immigration reform wouldn't much of an issue in negotiations for a trafficlight coalition.

I wouldn't even compare the FDP to Republicans on other issues since they still support the welfare state and don't question climate change. The modern Republican Party is more like the AfD.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

My question is, would the FDP be similar to the Libertarian party in America? Or, would it be more like “country club/business Republicans?”

Definitely the latter.
Oh, and your acquaintances are absolutely right about the FDP: It's a sheer and pure economic-liberal pro-business party.
It's only and merely and solely Atlas that thinks they're social-liberal.

The question is how "social liberalism" is truly defined. It's certainly not the same all over the world and especially comparing the US to Europe.

True is that the FDP supports a number of policies that people associate with "social liberalism" such as same sex marriage, decriminalization of cannabis and abortion rights. These issues and a modern immigration reform wouldn't much of an issue in negotiations for a trafficlight coalition.

I wouldn't even compare the FDP to Republicans on other issues since they still support the welfare state and don't question climate change. The modern Republican Party is more like the AfD.

I'm not saying the FDP is opposed to civil rights, but they would always prefer currying favor with the economic lobby to taking a stand for civil liberties. Article13/17 and TTIP are very prime examples for their two-faced stances.

It's just astonishing for me to realize that most of the Atlas community deems the FDP left-wing. On Atals' twin sister called Twitter you would be lynched for daring to say that.

The Trumpinzed GOP may be deemed too populist by the FDP, but so is the woke AOC-Omar-Tlaib undermined Democratic Party.

Moreover, the FPD might not be as staunchly neo-liberal as they were 15 years ago, but in 2002 and 2005, they basically intended abolishing the welfare system - including our healthcare system - thoroughly and entirely, and replacing it by an American-style private security system.

Furthermore: During the commencement of the FDP's history, the party staunchly opposed SSM. In fact, even in the early 2000's, they - along with the Union - instituted judicial review proceedings at the Federal Constitutional Court against the civil union law passed by the red-green government.

Bottom line: Prior to 2016, the FDP clearly and doubtlessly would have been a "wing" of the GOP; nowadays it's a bit more complicated.

[Angel of Death]

Could the Greens realistically win more than the one constituency they've been holding on to?