GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

If this hasn't been posted already, McBath is not running for Isakson's seat: https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/lucy-mcbath-passes-johnny-isakson-senate-seat/wCEGrWiW3oFxXSnSehrb6I/. I assume she realized that it would be better for her to win reelection to her current seat, than to pursue a Senate bid in which she would be the underdog. As I've said before, if Perdue wins reelection (and I believe that he will), then Republicans will win the open Senate seat as well. And without the Georgia seats, and without Maine (where I think Collins is the favorite, and will win reelection by a Manchin-esque margin), Democrats will not take back the Senate next year.

That’s nice, Mr. Oracle, but the playing field a year out from the election never looks the same as it does on Election Day. In September 2015, Ohio and Florida were supposed to be the big Semate races of 2016 while Missouri was completely ignored. Or in 2017, AL was on no one’s radar, and neither was TX (at least by anyone serious) and TN while WV was supposedly pretty safe for Democrats

[Rookie Yinzer]

McBath was the only top tier recruit to me other than Abrams. We need a strong black candidate and I don't see that in any of the people in the state legislature or in prominent local positions. Guess we'll see! This changes nothing. Both races remain Lean R due to the run off rule- but could realistically go either way.

[skbl17]

State Sen. Jen Jordan (GA-SD-6, not to be confused with GA-6) is considering running for the seat. Also, I don't know if it was already mentioned, but current DeKalb County CEO Michael Thurmond is also "exploring his options".

On a side note, Thurmond, then Georgia Labor Commissioner, ran against Isakson in 2010: he lost 58-39.

On the Republican side, Doug Collins has expressed interest in running. I think a lot of the movement on the GOP side will depend on who Kemp appoints.

[Zaybay]

With McBath out, it looks like the candidate will either have ran for state office before(Carter, Nunn, etc.) or be a state legislator(Jordan, etc.)

Personally, I would be pretty happy with Carter as the candidate, but the field is pretty wide open.

[DaWN]

That's not good news. Now Democrats have to rely on b-listers at best for both seats. Why are the Democrats so bad at candidate recruitment so much of the time?

[Politician]

SENATOR JIMMY CARTER

[Calthrina950]

If this hasn't been posted already, McBath is not running for Isakson's seat: https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/lucy-mcbath-passes-johnny-isakson-senate-seat/wCEGrWiW3oFxXSnSehrb6I/. I assume she realized that it would be better for her to win reelection to her current seat, than to pursue a Senate bid in which she would be the underdog. As I've said before, if Perdue wins reelection (and I believe that he will), then Republicans will win the open Senate seat as well. And without the Georgia seats, and without Maine (where I think Collins is the favorite, and will win reelection by a Manchin-esque margin), Democrats will not take back the Senate next year.

That’s nice, Mr. Oracle, but the playing field a year out from the election never looks the same as it does on Election Day. In September 2015, Ohio and Florida were supposed to be the big Semate races of 2016 while Missouri was completely ignored. Or in 2017, AL was on no one’s radar, and neither was TX (at least by anyone serious) and TN while WV was supposedly pretty safe for Democrats

Of course, I'm not discounting the possibility that one or both Georgia Senate seats could go Democratic in 2020. However, I only see that happening if Trump is losing by a 2008-esque or more margin-and we have no guarantee of that, given how polarized this country has become. And mind you that Georgia did not flip in 2018, a Democratic "wave" environment. Democrats are continuing to struggle to find that last 2% which they will need for victory.

At any rate, McBath staying out of the race should still tell us something.

[Frenchrepublican]

If this hasn't been posted already, McBath is not running for Isakson's seat: https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/lucy-mcbath-passes-johnny-isakson-senate-seat/wCEGrWiW3oFxXSnSehrb6I/. I assume she realized that it would be better for her to win reelection to her current seat, than to pursue a Senate bid in which she would be the underdog. As I've said before, if Perdue wins reelection (and I believe that he will), then Republicans will win the open Senate seat as well. And without the Georgia seats, and without Maine (where I think Collins is the favorite, and will win reelection by a Manchin-esque margin), Democrats will not take back the Senate next year.

That’s nice, Mr. Oracle, but the playing field a year out from the election never looks the same as it does on Election Day. In September 2015, Ohio and Florida were supposed to be the big Semate races of 2016 while Missouri was completely ignored. Or in 2017, AL was on no one’s radar, and neither was TX (at least by anyone serious) and TN while WV was supposedly pretty safe for Democrats

Of course, I'm not discounting the possibility that one or both Georgia Senate seats could go Democratic in 2020. However, I only see that happening if Trump is losing by a 2008-esque or more margin-and we have no guarantee of that, given how polarized this country has become. And mind you that Georgia did not flip in 2018, a Democratic "wave" environment. Democrats are continuing to struggle to find that last 2% which they will need for victory.

At any rate, McBath staying out of the race should still tell us something.

You’re talking to a guy who thinks that Trump will lose TX, it’s pretty hard to reason this dude.

[Frenchrepublican]

Not really surprising, McBath is the favourite in GA-6 which will almost certainly flip at the presidential level from Trump 2016 to D, it would have been stupid for her to run statewide.

[Heebie Jeebie]

With McBath out, my bet is Scott Holcomb finally makes a Senate run and ends up as the nominee.

[QAnonKelly]

The Governor's Office is actually listing the submissions online, so you can browse the resumes of those who wish to be considered.

Lmao I love the random black lady. Also my resume about voter suppression isn’t on there 😢

Also, the most qualified on the list is that A. Thomas Stubbs person.

I like the guy who said he was fluent in English and put down his drivers license under licensing

[OSR stands with Israel]

If this hasn't been posted already, McBath is not running for Isakson's seat: https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/lucy-mcbath-passes-johnny-isakson-senate-seat/wCEGrWiW3oFxXSnSehrb6I/. I assume she realized that it would be better for her to win reelection to her current seat, than to pursue a Senate bid in which she would be the underdog. As I've said before, if Perdue wins reelection (and I believe that he will), then Republicans will win the open Senate seat as well. And without the Georgia seats, and without Maine (where I think Collins is the favorite, and will win reelection by a Manchin-esque margin), Democrats will not take back the Senate next year.

That’s nice, Mr. Oracle, but the playing field a year out from the election never looks the same as it does on Election Day. In September 2015, Ohio and Florida were supposed to be the big Semate races of 2016 while Missouri was completely ignored. Or in 2017, AL was on no one’s radar, and neither was TX (at least by anyone serious) and TN while WV was supposedly pretty safe for Democrats

Florida was only cause Rubio wasnt expected to run again, and in Ohio  it was always viewed as Lean R.

[Calthrina950]

If this hasn't been posted already, McBath is not running for Isakson's seat: https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/lucy-mcbath-passes-johnny-isakson-senate-seat/wCEGrWiW3oFxXSnSehrb6I/. I assume she realized that it would be better for her to win reelection to her current seat, than to pursue a Senate bid in which she would be the underdog. As I've said before, if Perdue wins reelection (and I believe that he will), then Republicans will win the open Senate seat as well. And without the Georgia seats, and without Maine (where I think Collins is the favorite, and will win reelection by a Manchin-esque margin), Democrats will not take back the Senate next year.

That’s nice, Mr. Oracle, but the playing field a year out from the election never looks the same as it does on Election Day. In September 2015, Ohio and Florida were supposed to be the big Semate races of 2016 while Missouri was completely ignored. Or in 2017, AL was on no one’s radar, and neither was TX (at least by anyone serious) and TN while WV was supposedly pretty safe for Democrats

Florida was only cause Rubio wasnt expected to run again, and in Ohio  it was always viewed as Lean R.

Correct, and in hindsight, Ohio should have been rated Safe R, given that Portman absolutely demolished Strickland, running well ahead of Trump.

[henster]

Rs have complete control of redistricting in GA they could pull off a NC type gerrymander and McBath's would be a goner anyways by 2022. Look at Jacky Rosen & Tom Cotton they took their chances and ran after only serving one term and look where they are now. It sucks McBath can't see the bigger picture here and just take the leap.  

[Continential]

The Governor's Office is actually listing the submissions online, so you can browse the resumes of those who wish to be considered.

Lmao I love the random black lady. Also my resume about voter suppression isn’t on there 😢

Also, the most qualified on the list is that A. Thomas Stubbs person.

I like the guy who said he was fluent in English and put down his drivers license under licensing

Also, they updated more.

[Heebie Jeebie]

The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that, of the names still being tossed around, DeKalb County District Attorney Sherry Boston would be the best choice for Democrats to settle on.  Her résumé is a little thin, but she's a black woman from the metro Atlanta area, and her background in law enforcement will fit the moment perfectly-whomever the Democrats nominate for president, anti-corruption is probably going to be the theme of the national party's 2020 campaign.  Unless McBath changes her mind, Boston might be the best Georgia Democrats can do.

[Nyvin]

If this hasn't been posted already, McBath is not running for Isakson's seat: https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/lucy-mcbath-passes-johnny-isakson-senate-seat/wCEGrWiW3oFxXSnSehrb6I/. I assume she realized that it would be better for her to win reelection to her current seat, than to pursue a Senate bid in which she would be the underdog. As I've said before, if Perdue wins reelection (and I believe that he will), then Republicans will win the open Senate seat as well. And without the Georgia seats, and without Maine (where I think Collins is the favorite, and will win reelection by a Manchin-esque margin), Democrats will not take back the Senate next year.

That’s nice, Mr. Oracle, but the playing field a year out from the election never looks the same as it does on Election Day. In September 2015, Ohio and Florida were supposed to be the big Semate races of 2016 while Missouri was completely ignored. Or in 2017, AL was on no one’s radar, and neither was TX (at least by anyone serious) and TN while WV was supposedly pretty safe for Democrats

Of course, I'm not discounting the possibility that one or both Georgia Senate seats could go Democratic in 2020. However, I only see that happening if Trump is losing by a 2008-esque or more margin-and we have no guarantee of that, given how polarized this country has become. And mind you that Georgia did not flip in 2018, a Democratic "wave" environment. Democrats are continuing to struggle to find that last 2% which they will need for victory.

At any rate, McBath staying out of the race should still tell us something.

"Continuing to struggle to find that last 2%"...?   So in a state that grew by 106k from 2017 to 2018, you think it's not possible to get 54k more votes?

Also,  wtf is "Continuing"?   The 2018 Gov election was the closest election in Georgia in more than a decade.   It was only last year.   There literally is no "continuing".    The close elections are here and now.

[Calthrina950]

If this hasn't been posted already, McBath is not running for Isakson's seat: https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/lucy-mcbath-passes-johnny-isakson-senate-seat/wCEGrWiW3oFxXSnSehrb6I/. I assume she realized that it would be better for her to win reelection to her current seat, than to pursue a Senate bid in which she would be the underdog. As I've said before, if Perdue wins reelection (and I believe that he will), then Republicans will win the open Senate seat as well. And without the Georgia seats, and without Maine (where I think Collins is the favorite, and will win reelection by a Manchin-esque margin), Democrats will not take back the Senate next year.

That’s nice, Mr. Oracle, but the playing field a year out from the election never looks the same as it does on Election Day. In September 2015, Ohio and Florida were supposed to be the big Semate races of 2016 while Missouri was completely ignored. Or in 2017, AL was on no one’s radar, and neither was TX (at least by anyone serious) and TN while WV was supposedly pretty safe for Democrats

Of course, I'm not discounting the possibility that one or both Georgia Senate seats could go Democratic in 2020. However, I only see that happening if Trump is losing by a 2008-esque or more margin-and we have no guarantee of that, given how polarized this country has become. And mind you that Georgia did not flip in 2018, a Democratic "wave" environment. Democrats are continuing to struggle to find that last 2% which they will need for victory.

At any rate, McBath staying out of the race should still tell us something.

"Continuing to struggle to find that last 2%"...?   So in a state that grew by 106k from 2017 to 2018, you think it's not possible to get 54k more votes?

Also,  wtf is "Continuing"?   The 2018 Gov election was the closest election in Georgia in more than a decade.   It was only last year.   There literally is no "continuing".    The close elections are here and now.

It's possible, but it's going to be a tough hurdle to clear. If Trump is narrowly winning reelection (and if he wins, it will be by a narrow margin), Georgia will not flip. And "close" doesn't constitute a victory.

[DrScholl]

With new registrations and more shifts in suburban counties it's not hard to find 55k or so votes that needed to win statewide. You could easily see a gain of thousands of more votes than that for Democrats. Republicans are barely hanging on to the state considering that every single statewide race last year was decided by single digits.

[henster]

Former US Attorney Ed Tarver is reportedly considering. He's black, a former State Senator and a Army veteran. Also he's from outside the Atlanta metro area like Tomilson.

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1176178177896570880

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_Tarver

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Former US Attorney Ed Tarver is reportedly considering. He's black, a former State Senator and a Army veteran. Also he's from outside the Atlanta metro area like Tomilson.

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1176178177896570880

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_Tarver

Is he a good campaigner?

[Young Conservative]

State Education board member Nikki Snyder (No relation to Gov. Rick Snyder) considering jumping in to take on Slotkin in Trump +7 seat, ex-Rep. Bishop encouraging the young, dynamic candidate to run.

https://www.lansingcitypulse.com/stories/slotkin-opens-up-to-possible-trump-impeachment,13311

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

State Education board member Nikki Snyder (No relation to Gov. Rick Snyder) considering jumping in to take on Slotkin in Trump +7 seat, ex-Rep. Bishop encouraging the young, dynamic candidate to run.

https://www.lansingcitypulse.com/stories/slotkin-opens-up-to-possible-trump-impeachment,13311

That’s a game changer for the GA Senate race

[skbl17]

Michigan is the new Georgia. Or is it that Georgia is the new Michigan?

Jokes aside, former HHS Secretary and Congressman Tom Price has applied to be appointed to the Isakson seat:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1176992900103757824

[Horus]

Michigan is the new Georgia. Or is it that Georgia is the new Michigan?

Jokes aside, former HHS Secretary and Congressman Tom Price has applied to be appointed to the Isakson seat:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1176992900103757824

Oh God no.