International COVID-19 Megathread

[KaiserDave]

Despite claims of a blue and yellow apocalypse, Sweden is doing (relatively) just fine

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html

[kaoras]

How are recoveries being classified in Austria?

Here in Portugal you have to do 2 tests in the space of 48 hours to declared as recovered. That's one of the main reason the number of recoveries in Portugal is quite slow, plus the fact that 85%+ of infected are treated at home and, possibly, many don't even do the 2 final tests to be declared as recovered.

In Chile we count the dead as recovered

[CumbrianLefty]

Despite claims of a blue and yellow apocalypse, Sweden is doing (relatively) just fine

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html

Hmmm, how much work is "could" doing in that title?

[KaiserDave]

Despite claims of a blue and yellow apocalypse, Sweden is doing (relatively) just fine

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html

Hmmm, how much work is "could" doing in that title?

The chief epidemiologist in Sweden says he thinks that in a few weeks it's possible. It's a matter of time according to him.

[PSOL]

World Bank warns of collapse in money sent home by migrant workers

The amount of money migrant workers send back to their home countries is expected to decrease by almost $110bn this year as the Covid 19 pandemic increases unemployment across the world.

Remittances to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are projected to fall by nearly 20% to $445bn (£360bn), “representing the loss of a crucial financial lifeline for many vulnerable households”, the World Bank said.

Describing the decrease as the worst in recent history, including the 2008 financial crisis, the Washington-based development bank said migrant workers were especially vulnerable to losing their jobs during coronavirus lockdowns which are still largely in place across the developed world.

[President Johnson]

Germany has approved the first clinical test for a vaccine. They are scheduled to begin very soon, starting with 200 people. First results are expected within a few months, though it's unlikely the vaccine will be available before the beginning of next year.

Germany to start first coronavirus vaccine trial

With more than 2.5 million people now infected worldwide in the COVID-19 pandemic, Germany has authorized the first clinical trial of a coronavirus vaccine. The first tests on humans will begin before the end of April.

German Health Minister Jens Spahn has announced the first clinical trials of a coronavirus vaccine. The Paul Ehrlich Institute (PEI), the regulatory authority which helps develop and authorizes vaccines in Germany, has given the go-ahead for the first clinical trial of BNT162b1, a vaccine against the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

[...]

The first medical tests of BNT162b1 will involve 200 healthy volunteers between the ages of 18 and 55. The aim is to determine the immune response and whether the vaccine causes any unwanted side effects.

[...]

Cichutek said testing would be completed by June, at the earliest. After this stage is complete, the PEI will determine if the vaccine can progress to further trial stages. Cichutek warned, however, that an approved vaccine was unlikely to be ready for the general public in 2020.

[...]

Full article on Deutsche Welle (in English)

[Landslide Lyndon]

Today was the first day since the beginning of March that no coronavirus related death was reported.
The government is set to ease restrictions, probably on May 4.   

[parochial boy]

Google data showing how much people in different countries have been moving around relative to normal (how much they moved on the 13th January). It's funny and you can use it to prove whatever preconceptions you already had - but probably a little bit misleading.

My own conclusions would be: image 1. Italy and France showing that the strictest lockdowns maybe aren't always the most effective. Notice the Germans and the Swiss starting to run out of patience in the April sunshine


image 2 - what was going on in Japan in March?



image 3 - Morocco?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Official Polish number continues to be suspiciously low.

[Mike88]

As I was writting the post above, another big jump in recoveries was announced in Portugal:

Portugal update: (22 April)

Total cases: 21,982 (+603)
Deaths: 785 (+23)
Recoveries: 1,143 (+225)
Patients in ICU: 207 (-6)
Patients hospitalized: 1,146 (-26)

281,907 tests conducted since March 1st

Looking at the curves, i would say you are missing 12,000 recoveries in Portugal.

They are simply being under-reported worldwide as the priority for medical staff is on new and critical patients.

Yeah, the "real" number may be around that, but like you said there isn't a lot of priority in tests for recovered patients as the focus is in finding and controlling new cases. In Austria, like Tender said, the Red Cross is going house to house to test people with no symptoms anymore, while here I don't think this is happening. The vast majority of tests is going to nursing homes, like I said above, and Portugal is almost approaching the 300,000 tests mark.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Mall in Brazil opens with fanfare and music

https://twitter.com/Metropoles/status/1253038744762028037?

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Latest numbers from Europe and USA.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

UK



UK 22 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 81,163 – April 19
Recoveries added to curve – 37,000


France



France 22 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 59,955 – April 11
Recoveries added to curve – 61,400


Germany



Germany 22 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 16,200


Spain



Spain 22 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 78,610 – April 9
Recoveries added to curve – 52,100

Spain shares many similarities with Germany, except greater cases.


Italy



Italy 22 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,528 – March 30
Recoveries added to curve – 90,000

Italy starting to become very predictable now following the downward curve.


USA



USA 22 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 490,117 – April 19
Recoveries added to curve – 252,000

USA on it's way down the slope should start to decelerate rapidly in Active Case numbers over the next week.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



Growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

[Tender Branson]

Official Polish number continues to be suspiciously low.

Poland was also less impacted by the plague during the Middle Ages, compared to other European regions where up to half or 3/4 of the population died.

[Blue3]

Well COVID-19 does in general target the more vulnerable with pre-existing health conditions. Perhaps most of those people in eastern Europe have already died / don't live long anyways due to its other conditions?

[parochial boy]

Most of those Central European countries have life expectancies that are comparable to the USA (78.9 in the USA, 78.5 in Poland, 79.2 in Czechia, 77.4 in Slovakia, 81.2 in Slovenia) as well as comparably older populations due to the low birth rates and emigration (eg 19% aged over 65 in Slovenia, 19% in Czechia, 17% in Poland compared around 15% in the USA). Romania and Bulgaria have slightly lower life expectancies (about 75) but also are some of the oldest countries in the world.

[Omega21]

Scientists investigate possible positive effects of nicotine. It is being assumed that nicotine somehow (clinging onto the receptors the virus needs) has a positive shielding effect against the virus. 

https://m.oe24.at/coronavirus/Coronavirus-Wissenschafter-vermuten-positive-Wirkung-von-Nikotin/427320386

Obviously testing will be done with patches, not cigarettes.

The reason for the theory is that so far smokers have 80% lower infection rates than the General population.

[urutzizu]

Merkel made a speech in the Bundestag today, where she in pretty clear terms admonished the State Premiers who were opening up too fast. She is hardly known for her combative approach, but that speech, even if he wasn't mentioned by name, was basically a broadside against Armin Laschet. He is the Premier of the State of NRW, as well as the front-runner to succeed Merkel, and has continuously been the most outspoken opponent of harsher measures against the Virus and in favour of reopening the economy faster than others. Traditionally he is a close ally of Merkel, while Markus Söder, Premier of Bravaria, and the one with the most Hardline approach is a rival, and the two openly had an argument about it, but nonetheless this was a pretty clear attack against Laschet.

This could have a potentially big Impact on the race to succeed Merkel. Laschet has come under fire a lot lately, not just from Merkel, for a approach percieved by many as reckless, while Söder has become very popular (but he has not been seen as interested in running). However business groups have a very strong influence in the CDU, and his approach will help him curry favour with them (most likely the main reason for it). He is also running on a ticket with Health Minister Spahn, whose popularity has been boosted throughout this Crisis, so that is also likely to help him.

In terms of Legacy, Merkels scientific (she is one herself, you see) and, apparently successful, approach has more or less repaired her popularity and her stateswomen-like Image, beyond anything she lost during the Refugee Crisis. She still has a year to go, but if everything stays as is, she will, justified or not, likely be viewed in German history very positively.

In English: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/23/german-states-lifting-lockdowns-too-quickly-warns-merkel-coronavirus

[Tender Branson]

Scientists investigate possible positive effects of nicotine. It is being assumed that nicotine somehow (clinging onto the receptors the virus needs) has a positive shielding effect against the virus. 

https://m.oe24.at/coronavirus/Coronavirus-Wissenschafter-vermuten-positive-Wirkung-von-Nikotin/427320386

Obviously testing will be done with patches, not cigarettes.

The reason for the theory is that so far smokers have 80% lower infection rates than the General population.

Ohh ... so the smokers dodged a bullet ?

... only to die painfully and slowly because of lung cancer later on.

[PSOL]

Cuba's ration book stages comeback due to coronavirus pandemic

The Communist-run island nation last month closed its borders to travelers, shuttered schools and ordered the use of face masks in a bid to contain the novel virus, sending doctors and medical students to monitor the population.

Yet hours-long queues outside Cuban supermarkets due to widespread shortages of basic goods risk undermining the country’s response to the spread of the virus, resulting in potential hotbeds of infection.

To combat that, authorities this month added more products to Cubans’ monthly ration book — known locally as the “libreta” — and started experimenting with online commerce and delivery options.

Well this is an odd turn of events.

Meanwhile in France

The queue for the food bank snaked for hundreds of metres, out of the shuttered marketplace bordered by tower blocks and down the side of a four-lane highway on the outskirts of one of Europe’s wealthiest cities.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Merkel made a speech in the Bundestag today, where she in pretty clear terms admonished the State Premiers who were opening up too fast. She is hardly known for her combative approach, but that speech, even if he wasn't mentioned by name, was basically a broadside against Armin Laschet. He is the Premier of the State of NRW, as well as the front-runner to succeed Merkel, and has continuously been the most outspoken opponent of harsher measures against the Virus and in favour of reopening the economy faster than others. Traditionally he is a close ally of Merkel, while Markus Söder, Premier of Bravaria, and the one with the most Hardline approach is a rival, and the two openly had an argument about it, but nonetheless this was a pretty clear attack against Laschet.

This could have a potentially big Impact on the race to succeed Merkel. Laschet has come under fire a lot lately, not just from Merkel, for a approach percieved by many as reckless, while Söder has become very popular (but he has not been seen as interested in running). However business groups have a very strong influence in the CDU, and his approach will help him curry favour with them (most likely the main reason for it). He is also running on a ticket with Health Minister Spahn, whose popularity has been boosted throughout this Crisis, so that is also likely to help him.

In terms of Legacy, Merkels scientific (she is one herself, you see) and, apparently successful, approach has more or less repaired her popularity and her stateswomen-like Image, beyond anything she lost during the Refugee Crisis. She still has a year to go, but if everything stays as is, she will, justified or not, likely be viewed in German history very positively.

In English: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/23/german-states-lifting-lockdowns-too-quickly-warns-merkel-coronavirus

It's not just Laschet, although he's certainly the most prominent of the bunch. For instance, it was also reported today that Laschet's NRW had formed an alliance with Baden-Württemberg and Lower Saxony to push for further lifting of restrictions, especially with regards to restaurants.
Merkel on the other hand tried to slow things way down, by pushing the date at which further liftings will be decided on back from April 30 to May 6. The one on April 30 has merely become an "evaluation" meeting now.

[urutzizu]

For instance, it was also reported today that Laschet's NRW had formed an alliance with Baden-Württemberg and Lower Saxony to push for further lifting of restrictions, especially with regards to restaurants.

Yes, although I don't think that is correct in regards to Baden-Württemberg. Down here Kretschmann has definitely been among the more restrictive premiers. He and Söder met today to form a "Gemeinschaft der Umsichtigen" (Alliance of the Careful).

https://mobile.twitter.com/Markus_Soeder/status/1253305143996669952

[Blue3]

Scientists investigate possible positive effects of nicotine. It is being assumed that nicotine somehow (clinging onto the receptors the virus needs) has a positive shielding effect against the virus. 

https://m.oe24.at/coronavirus/Coronavirus-Wissenschafter-vermuten-positive-Wirkung-von-Nikotin/427320386

Obviously testing will be done with patches, not cigarettes.

The reason for the theory is that so far smokers have 80% lower infection rates than the General population.

Study paid for by tobacco company?

[Tender Branson]

Schools will re-open on May 4 here, but the school year will not be extended and end in early July.

[Tender Branson]

Only 69 new cases here since yesterday (+0.46%), up to 15.071 in total.

In hospitals: 651 (-26)
In ICU: 156 (-13)

Recoveries: 11.872 (+178)

Active cases: 2.669 (-117)

Deaths: 530 (+8)

The +8 deaths is the lowest in over a month.

[Tender Branson]

Hmm ...

A brand-new release by STATISTICS Austria 🇦🇹 today shows that there could be significantly more deaths due to Coronavirus than reported by the government.

http://www.statistik.at/web_en/press/122945.html

Here’s why:

The government (health ministry/interior ministry) track daily deaths of people infected with Coronavirus in hospitals and nursing homes ONLY.

Statistics Austria on the other hand has basically live data on deaths from every Austrian town on a weekly basis - using the central population register.

Weekly deaths showed no statistical anomalies until March 16 (when infections spiked up and the curfew was introduced).

In the 3 weeks after March 16 (to April 5th), weekly deaths in all Austrian towns increased by more than 10% compared with the same weekly average during 2016-2019 !

Between March 16 and April 5th, the government announced around 200 COVID deaths in hospitals and nursing homes, but the data from Statistics Austria had deaths in all of Austria increasing by 580 compared to the same period in 2016-2019 ...

This could mean 2 things:

* an underreporting of COVID deaths happening at home, rather than at the hospital/nursing home

* a statistical anomaly: nobody knows the cause of death of those surplus deaths, so there could simply be more deaths because of other illnesses at home

STATISTICS Austria has released nationwide death statistics for the week April 6-12:

1.762

That is 14.3% higher than the average (1.542) for the comparable weeks in 2016-19.

It's 220 deaths more.

The Health Ministry reported 125 official COVID-deaths in that week.