International COVID-19 Megathread

[urutzizu]

In Germany 4000+ new infections today, the last two days it had calmed down to 2500 per day. For that reason the RKI (our CDC) was optimistic and said that the measures of the Government were showing effect. Now, I for one think that may have had something to do that it was weekend, and trends from almost all countries show numbers calming on weekends, and the fact that weather was atrocious. But the Government apparently took it anyway and held back from issuing a Nationwide lockdown. Bravaria decided to lock down anyway and got into a big argument with the other State Premiers (Especially NRWs Armin Laschet) because of it. We will see who is right, but three Quarters of Germans agree with extending the lockdown nationwide, and the Lockdown in Italy does, after two seem to start showing signs of working. With the UK locking down too, we are the only major European country not to do so.

On that cultural thing - I'm gonna Swisspost, but a funny one that has been picked up here is that within Switzerland it has been the "Latin" cantons that have been far harder hit than the German ones. Ticino obviously, but the French speaking cantons have had virtually half of the cases nationwide despite only 25% of the population. Slight parallels with the worst hit countries in Europe generally being the romance speaking southern European ones.

I think a another factor might be that there are far more Cross-border commuters (per capita in the affected cantons and overall) from France and Italy into Switzerland than from Germany, and the fact that the French and Italian departments/regions that border Switzerland are some of the hardest hit in the entire country while Baden-Württemberg is not really to the same extent.

[parochial boy]

On that cultural thing - I'm gonna Swisspost, but a funny one that has been picked up here is that within Switzerland it has been the "Latin" cantons that have been far harder hit than the German ones. Ticino obviously, but the French speaking cantons have had virtually half of the cases nationwide despite only 25% of the population. Slight parallels with the worst hit countries in Europe generally being the romance speaking southern European ones.

I think a another factor might be that there are far more Cross-border commuters (per capita in the affected cantons and overall) from France and Italy into Switzerland than from Germany, and the fact that the French and Italian departments/regions that border Switzerland are some of the hardest hit in the entire country while Baden-Württemberg is not really to the same extent.

Potentially, especially around the Basel area with regards to Alsace (and Ticino, obviously) - and there might be a degree of ski-resortism as has been the case with a lot of the Nordic/German cases (a Ski resort in the Valais, Verbier has actually been identified as a massive hot spot for infections). But otherwise, even accounting for differing test rates, Geneva is quite a bit harder hit than Ain or Haute-Savoie, which are the two major frontalier sources. Geneva has over 1'100 cases for a population of 500k; compared to 270 in Haute-Savoie, which has a population of 800k; or 130 in Ain. Vaud is even worse hit, with 1'900, and has much less intense cross-border activity than Geneva since Lausanne is quite far from the border and the actual Vaud-France border region is pretty remote.

And then, the spate of cases in Neuchâtel and the Jura have pretty strong links to that church meeting in Mulhouse. Neuchâtel has a lot of cross-border commuting, but isn't as hard hit as the two larger cantons, and the Valais which has been hit hard has nect to no frontaliers.

[Silent Hunter]

UK now effectively in lockdown with police enforcement, but their statutory powers to do this is somewhat limited.

There's the capacity to do an Order in Council under the Civil Contingencies Act, which only lasts for 30 days. Also, you've got the Coronavirus Bill.

[Silent Hunter]

Cases in Austria have exploded today, after a relatively quiet weekend.

Maybe they didn't test/release as much over the weekend and only released the results today ?

Anyway, 4.500 cases now.

Test figures are no longer reliable now; we need to look at deaths.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

692 confirmed cases

749 now.

Why the hell am I posting this anyway. You can use the wiki:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Poland

[parochial boy]

Another, "are the lockdowns effective?" post. Lodi went in to lockdown on the 24th February and Bergamo did on the 8th of March. Well, draw your own conclusions

[Tintrlvr]

Bergamo does also have 3x the population of Lodi so would be expected to have more cases and more potential for growth. Lodi may have just reached near-saturation levels.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Can't help but think all this stuff about East Asians being more inclined towards submission and collectivism than Caucasians is a bit racist tbh.

It's not a race thing or genetics, it's cultural and societal.

Russia is very similar to China as well.

[Beezer]

So at which point will the human (not just the economic toll) of the lockdown become too much to bear? I mean there are all kinds of repercussions for mental health issues that 20-30% unemployment brings with it. It is rather worrying that there are so few voices that question the approach that has been chosen.

[Lechasseur]

So at which point will the human (not just the economic toll) of the lockdown become too much to bear? I mean there are all kinds of repercussions for mental health issues that 20-30% unemployment brings with it. It is rather worrying that there are so few voices that question the approach that has been chosen.

Agreed

[Sir Mohamed]

So at which point will the human (not just the economic toll) of the lockdown become too much to bear? I mean there are all kinds of repercussions for mental health issues that 20-30% unemployment brings with it. It is rather worrying that there are so few voices that question the approach that has been chosen.

In 3-4 weeks, govts all over the world will have to reassess the situation. Sooner or later, restrictions must be lifted for the sake of the economy alone. Not to mention other problems in society that come from permanent lockdowns. Otherwise, there will be bankruptcies en masse and skyrocketing unemployment. I still have some hope by looking at South Korea as some sort of model, but we should be prepared for the worst. I'm afraid the numbers of infected people will start climbing again once we return the normalcy. This is probably the worst societal crisis of our lifetimes that causes an unimaginable moral dilemma. I'm afraid in a few weeks we as a society and the politicians will have to decide whether continue to go down an economic super-cliff with disastrous consequences, worse than the 2009 recession, or we try to isolate only seniors and chronically ill and try to get some mass immunity among healthy people under the age of ~60-65.

The major problem as we speak is a complete lack of immunity across the board against this new virus. And there are just 2 ways to achieve that mass immunity: Vaccine or recovered people. Since vaccine won't be available for at least 9 months (maybe 12-14 months, and the vulnerable people need to be "locked up" for that amount of time), we might actually to go with the latter. Not because we like it, but because the alternative is so horrendous.

[Tender Branson]

The number of daily tests here has about doubled to 6.000 yesterday.

Austria now has among the highest number of per capita tests worldwide now.

That also led to a bigger jump than usual to around 4.500 cases as of 8am today (+25%).

https://info.gesundheitsministerium.at

[Lechasseur]

So at which point will the human (not just the economic toll) of the lockdown become too much to bear? I mean there are all kinds of repercussions for mental health issues that 20-30% unemployment brings with it. It is rather worrying that there are so few voices that question the approach that has been chosen.

In 3-4 weeks, govts all over the world will have to reassess the situation. Sooner or later, restrictions must be lifted for the sake of the economy alone. Not to mention other problems in society that come from permanent lockdowns. Otherwise, there will be bankruptcies en masse and skyrocketing unemployment. I still have some hope by looking at South Korea as some sort of model, but we should be prepared for the worst. I'm afraid the numbers of infected people will start climbing again once we return the normalcy. This is probably the worst societal crisis of our lifetimes that causes an unimaginable moral dilemma. I'm afraid in a few weeks we as a society and the politicians will have to decide whether continue to go down an economic super-cliff with disastrous consequences, worse than the 2009 recession, or we try to isolate only seniors and chronically ill and try to get some mass immunity among healthy people under the age of ~60-65.

The major problem as we speak is a complete lack of immunity across the board against this new virus. And there are just 2 ways to achieve that mass immunity: Vaccine or recovered people. Since vaccine won't be available for at least 9 months (maybe 12-14 months, and the vulnerable people need to be "locked up" for that amount of time), we might actually to go with the latter. Not because we like it, but because the alternative is so horrendous.

This

[T'Chenka]

So at which point will the human (not just the economic toll) of the lockdown become too much to bear? I mean there are all kinds of repercussions for mental health issues that 20-30% unemployment brings with it. It is rather worrying that there are so few voices that question the approach that has been chosen.

In 3-4 weeks, govts all over the world will have to reassess the situation. Sooner or later, restrictions must be lifted for the sake of the economy alone. Not to mention other problems in society that come from permanent lockdowns. Otherwise, there will be bankruptcies en masse and skyrocketing unemployment. I still have some hope by looking at South Korea as some sort of model, but we should be prepared for the worst. I'm afraid the numbers of infected people will start climbing again once we return the normalcy. This is probably the worst societal crisis of our lifetimes that causes an unimaginable moral dilemma. I'm afraid in a few weeks we as a society and the politicians will have to decide whether continue to go down an economic super-cliff with disastrous consequences, worse than the 2009 recession, or we try to isolate only seniors and chronically ill and try to get some mass immunity among healthy people under the age of ~60-65.

The major problem as we speak is a complete lack of immunity across the board against this new virus. And there are just 2 ways to achieve that mass immunity: Vaccine or recovered people. Since vaccine won't be available for at least 9 months (maybe 12-14 months, and the vulnerable people need to be "locked up" for that amount of time), we might actually to go with the latter. Not because we like it, but because the alternative is so horrendous.

If that happens, societies / government should actively seek ways to unite 100% verufied antibody recovered health workers and care givers with the isolated elderly people.

[Tender Branson]

The city of Vienna has announced a 4-fold increase in daily testing capacity from 400 to around 1.800 per day.

Austria will test about 10.000 people per day soon, up from 2.000 per day the past week.

[Silent Hunter]

A lockdown of 3 to 4 weeks will buy us time to develop treatments (not necessarily a vaccine) that will save lives.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The Australian Government prides itself on a centralised policy of "Stop The Boats", but they missed the one that mattered:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-51999845

150 Corona-virus victims left the Cruise Ship, some to hospital, and the remainder walked straight into Sydney and were free to go.

No Border Force, no NSW Heatlh Checks, no Quarantine.

[Lechasseur]

A lockdown of 3 to 4 weeks will buy us time to develop treatments (not necessarily a vaccine) that will save lives.

Yes exactly, along with making more tests.

There's no way the lockdown can last until a vaccine is made.

[Former President tack50]

So at which point will the human (not just the economic toll) of the lockdown become too much to bear? I mean there are all kinds of repercussions for mental health issues that 20-30% unemployment brings with it. It is rather worrying that there are so few voices that question the approach that has been chosen.

To be fair, Greece and Spain weathered 25%+ unemployment for several years, so it would not be the end of the world. My very own corner of Spain saw unemployment rates as high as 35% (Q3 2013). Of course, there are a bunch of cultural and economic differences that explain why unemployment in Spain or Greece is way higher than the rest of the EU, but still; if unemployment ""only"" rises to 25% it will actually be a lesser concern compared to other areas of the economy.

[Lechasseur]

So at which point will the human (not just the economic toll) of the lockdown become too much to bear? I mean there are all kinds of repercussions for mental health issues that 20-30% unemployment brings with it. It is rather worrying that there are so few voices that question the approach that has been chosen.

To be fair, Greece and Spain weathered 25%+ unemployment for several years, so it would not be the end of the world. My very own corner of Spain saw unemployment rates as high as 35% (Q3 2013). Of course, there are a bunch of cultural and economic differences that explain why unemployment in Spain or Greece is way higher than the rest of the EU, but still; if unemployment ""only"" rises to 25% it will actually be a lesser concern compared to other areas of the economy.

Which other areas of the economy are you thinking of?

[Former President tack50]

So at which point will the human (not just the economic toll) of the lockdown become too much to bear? I mean there are all kinds of repercussions for mental health issues that 20-30% unemployment brings with it. It is rather worrying that there are so few voices that question the approach that has been chosen.

To be fair, Greece and Spain weathered 25%+ unemployment for several years, so it would not be the end of the world. My very own corner of Spain saw unemployment rates as high as 35% (Q3 2013). Of course, there are a bunch of cultural and economic differences that explain why unemployment in Spain or Greece is way higher than the rest of the EU, but still; if unemployment ""only"" rises to 25% it will actually be a lesser concern compared to other areas of the economy.

Which other areas of the economy are you thinking of?

Mostly the big GDP drop, the complete freeze on a lot of economic activity and the future restrictions on movement and what not. Of course those are correlated to unemployment (and unemployment is a lagging indicator as well)

Not to mention the psychological consequences on people, but that is besides the point.

In any case, I do think that if unemployment ""only"" rises to the 20-25% range it will still be manegable, especially considering the fundamentals of the economy are "better" than in 2008 (I expect a much faster recovery and no double dip recession for example).

Of course, it will still suck a lot, we should not lie to ourselves. Spain or Greece circa 2013 were not pretty, but it's well within living memory so we can get an idea of what to be prepared for (hope for the best, but prepare for the worst)

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

OK, we're entering somewhat of a lockdown now (starting today and lasting until April 11. The government wants us all to get healthy in time for the presidential election )

The drill is basically:

1. You're not supposed to go out except for work, groceries, medical reasons or taking your dog out to take a dump. You can still go visit a family member "to help out" (like who's going to be checking it?)

2. No more than 2 people can be together outside... that should've been done a long time ago, when idiots were hanging out en masse on the Warsaw boulevard for example.

3. Only sitting places in the mass transit, at least one space away... like who's going to be checking it anyway? Not a driver for sure. And what about the people who need to get to work and simply has take that bus/sub/tram?

4. No more than 5 people can partake in the mass, priest and his helpers not counted.

5. Fine up to 5000 zlotys for violating the restrictions.


Essentially some of the restrictions will be difficult to enforce (because of either ambiguities or due to no personell available), and many come too late.

I hate to say this, but just declare the state of emergency, which would clarify the situation once and for all... except that would delay the election, so it's not going to happen.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Also, our already dysfunctional public health system is now overstretched, leaving many people either suspected of having the virus or having completely unrelated, but no less serious (sometimes even more) conditions with inadequate to no help, especially if they're confined at homes. A close friend of me is in this very situation.

[CumbrianLefty]

A lockdown of 3 to 4 weeks will buy us time to develop treatments (not necessarily a vaccine) that will save lives.

Yes this, I'm surprised at people still assuming its either "a vaccine or nothing".

Increased capacity for testing will help too.

[Silent Hunter]

The treatments are already being trialled; although they're not yet approved.