International COVID-19 Megathread

[Sir Mohamed]

Here is a global live map

[Sir Mohamed]

It's hard to believe mortality is so different between developed countries. Italy and US have a high rate compared to others (Germany has more confirmed cases than US and 0 deaths?). Especially Italy compared to other European countries is highly suspicious. Indicates there's a much higher number of infected people "flying under the radar". Likely due to a lack of testing. Wouldn't be surprised if the real number of infected Italians is 5 times higher than reported/confirmed. Or even 10 times more.

[Sir Mohamed]

My city was under lockdown for a few weeks, you could only leave the house once per two days. The lockdown is over, but a lot of businesses still can't open up again, so I'm working remotely. Around 20 cases so far, 3/4ths have already recovered, no new cases in over a week. I'm hoping things go back to normal soon but I'm grateful that the policies aimed at containing the virus to Hubei have been so successful.

Can you shop while leaving each 2nd day? Or how do you get your food and other stuff like cosmetics? Or dou you have everything storaged for weeks?

[Sir Mohamed]

China reported 40 new cases of the coronavirus on Monday, its lowest number since its health commission began publishing nationwide data on 20 January.

Of the 40 cases, 36 were from locked-off Wuhan - while the remaining four were cases imported from Iran. China is quarantining all arrivals from affected regions. So we have gone full circle. China has essentially beat the Virus.

And it shows, one can either take "authoritarian" proactive prevention measures quickly, at a relatively low cost (China outside Wuhan, Singapore, Taiwan, Russia...), or wait and be forced to take far more drastic steps at containment later at a massive cost, both economic and human (Wuhan, Italy, Iran...). Europe seems adamant to take the latter path.

That may be one explanation, but the PRC has changed their counting methods multiple times. Also, I doubt these numbers are accurate.

[Sir Mohamed]

Brazilian media are apparently now confirming that Bolsonaro has tested positive. 65 years old next week.

Any word about his VP?

[Sir Mohamed]

This is just awful. Their #s of infected people must be many times higher than offically reported cases.

https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1239243558349090817

[Sir Mohamed]

...And Euro 2020 has been postponed for twelve months

Ugh, this hasn't happened since WWII? That's insane.

[Sir Mohamed]

Scary

https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1240625994450587649

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1240629550201143297

[Sir Mohamed]

So at which point will the human (not just the economic toll) of the lockdown become too much to bear? I mean there are all kinds of repercussions for mental health issues that 20-30% unemployment brings with it. It is rather worrying that there are so few voices that question the approach that has been chosen.

In 3-4 weeks, govts all over the world will have to reassess the situation. Sooner or later, restrictions must be lifted for the sake of the economy alone. Not to mention other problems in society that come from permanent lockdowns. Otherwise, there will be bankruptcies en masse and skyrocketing unemployment. I still have some hope by looking at South Korea as some sort of model, but we should be prepared for the worst. I'm afraid the numbers of infected people will start climbing again once we return the normalcy. This is probably the worst societal crisis of our lifetimes that causes an unimaginable moral dilemma. I'm afraid in a few weeks we as a society and the politicians will have to decide whether continue to go down an economic super-cliff with disastrous consequences, worse than the 2009 recession, or we try to isolate only seniors and chronically ill and try to get some mass immunity among healthy people under the age of ~60-65.

The major problem as we speak is a complete lack of immunity across the board against this new virus. And there are just 2 ways to achieve that mass immunity: Vaccine or recovered people. Since vaccine won't be available for at least 9 months (maybe 12-14 months, and the vulnerable people need to be "locked up" for that amount of time), we might actually to go with the latter. Not because we like it, but because the alternative is so horrendous.

[Sir Mohamed]

In the latest episode of "China hoodwinking Europe", the millions of respirators Finland ordered from China at a cost many times that compared to normal times have proven to be inadequate for hospital use.

The rest of the world should really demand that China pay compensation for this pandemic.

I wouldn't bother, yup.

More important is the PRC and others consequently restrict wild animal trading and vigorously enforce said ban. These "food" markets, where humans and dead or alive animals are close together for a longer period of time, are the source for a zoonosis like this or the previous SARS pandemic of the early 2000s. Apparently they (and we) didn't learn the lesson from the first SARS virus. Now, despite SARS 1 having a higher mortality, we're poised to go through it again with worse consequences for human life and the global economy. And there remains to be huge potential for another pandemic in the future. If wild animal trading returns the normalcy once this is over, I guarantee we'll be talking about SARS 3 in some years.

[Sir Mohamed]

Now there are reports that the first Covid19 case in France could be dating back to November 2019. For reference, the PRC informed WHO on December 31. Haven't seen US media picking this up yet, but if confirmed, would be a big deal (a friend from abroad sent me th said information).

https://twitter.com/KlimaZen/status/1258424493531430915

[Sir Mohamed]

Russia has approved a vaccine. Not sure what to make of this, there is no international scientific evidence this one works. May be more of a PR stunt.

https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1293116336290377728

[Sir Mohamed]

So, we're expected to hit the mark of 1 million deaths very soon? Good lord...

[Sir Mohamed]

The situation in the neighbouring Czech Republic is nuts:

15.300 new daily infections yesterday (in US terms: 480.000 new daily cases)

126 dead yesterday (in US terms: 4.000 new deaths per day)

Austria had +3.600 new cases yesterday and 11 dead.

I'm hardly familiar with demographics in terms of age in Austria and CZ, but you would have to assume the patients in CZ are much older on average. At least that was the reason Italy lost so many people in spring compared to others.

[Sir Mohamed]

The EMA (European Medicines Agency) has finally approved the Pfizer vaccine.

Interesting this applies to all EU members. But makes sense.

[Sir Mohamed]

^^ Most Asian countries have more experience in dealing with virus diseases and pandemics. That said, I wouldn't put too much faith into official data from Vietnam or the PRC. These regimes are not known for their transparency, nor is free and indpendent reporting possible.

[Sir Mohamed]

First italian Covid-19 case go back to November 2019
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/bjd.19804

Which would be a couple of months before it was "officially" discovered.

So highly significant if true.

AFAIK the first official now was 1st december so less one month, however there are rumors that unofficially was from november, talking of China

Hot take: The 1st transmission happened in Q2 or Q3 of 2019 in the PRC. I think I read this somewhere a few months ago.

This article suggests the virus was in Italy as early as September: https://newseu.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-17/COVID-19-was-spreading-in-Italy-by-September-2019-study-indicates-VuSqUttP8s/index.html

[Sir Mohamed]

Death toll has surpassed the 2 million mark this week

[Sir Mohamed]

Surprised the UAE is that much ahead, though I knew from family members back in Dubai. My general concerns in the US and elsewhere is not enough people taking a shot due to skepticism. Fauci said that 85% of the US vaccinated would be his ideal goal.

[Sir Mohamed]

Is there an explanation why cases and hospitalizations in Israel are still that high? The vaccination campaign has been going pretty well, but shouldn't that improve the situation?

[Sir Mohamed]

From what I'm reading, vaccination in Europe outside the UK seems to be a hot mess by developed countries standards. Looking how it's going in America as we speak, who would have thought a year ago?

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1396294726815420416

[Sir Mohamed]

Olympic games will be without spectators, the Japanese govt just announced.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1413127498389499906

[Sir Mohamed]

So apparently the Dutch PM has apologised for fully reopening too early......

Something you won't hear from BoJo, I'm sure.

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1430868742267879424