NC-SEN, 2022: The Beasley Resurrection?

[SnowLabrador]

Okay, so it looks pretty clear that Ted Budd will be the next Senator from North Carolina. Nothing more to see here.

[Tekken_Guy]

Okay, so it looks pretty clear that Ted Budd will be the next Senator from North Carolina. Nothing more to see here.

It looks like Trump orchestrated the move to help Budd in the primary. He might have actually gotten the NCGA to draw a district for Walker exactly for this reason.

[Meatball Ron]

Okay, so it looks pretty clear that Ted Budd will be the next Senator from North Carolina. Nothing more to see here.

I don't disagree that Budd is the frontrunner, but if someone was going to beat Budd, it was never going to be Walker; it was going to be McCrory. So I don't really agree that the state of the primary has meaningfully changed here as a result of Walker dropping out.

[lfromnj]

Okay, so it looks pretty clear that Ted Budd will be the next Senator from North Carolina. Nothing more to see here.

I don't disagree that Budd is the frontrunner, but if someone was going to beat Budd, it was never going to be Walker; it was going to be McCrory. So I don't really agree that the state of the primary has meaningfully changed here as a result of Walker dropping out.

Walker is somewhat from a similar region as Budd so it helps Budd a bit.

[MargieCat]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1469053255917486088

[Gracile]

Jeff Jackson is expected to drop out tomorrow-

https://www.wral.com/democrat-jeff-jackson-expected-to-drop-out-of-u-s-senate-race/20037259/

[MargieCat]

At the start of the year, it seemed like the match-up would be Jackson vs. Walker.

Things sure changed.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's Lean R anyways, with Biden at 45/50 Approval

Beasley isn't beating Pat McCrory and CCM is tied with Adam Laxalt

[ShadowRocket]

Jeff Jackson is expected to drop out tomorrow-

https://www.wral.com/democrat-jeff-jackson-expected-to-drop-out-of-u-s-senate-race/20037259/

I think he missed his chance in 2020. He could've beat Tillis.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He can run for Gov in 24 Cooper is TL and follow the Beshear and Laura Kelly model

[MargieCat]

He can run for Gov in 24 Cooper is TL and follow the Beshear and Laura Kelly model

I predict Josh Stein will be the nominee for governor.

[TML]

Jeff Jackson is expected to drop out tomorrow-

https://www.wral.com/democrat-jeff-jackson-expected-to-drop-out-of-u-s-senate-race/20037259/

I think he missed his chance in 2020. He could've beat Tillis.

In that case, you should blame Chuck Schumer for insisting that he change his campaigning style to something he didn’t prefer to do, and for coronating various candidates who didn’t really stand for anything substantive in terms of policy positions (what they offered were mostly platitudes/cliches/etc.).

[Pink Panther]

So, does this essentially mean that Cheri Beasley has the nomination on lockdown?(although she'll probably lose in the general).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beasley hope is if VR outing Rights is enacted

[Pollster]

Chuck Schumer has never liked this guy - Jackson is probably hedging his bets that he'll fare better and face less hurdles in a future statewide primary for a row office or Governor.

[SnowLabrador]

Chuck Schumer has never liked this guy - Jackson is probably hedging his bets that he'll fare better and face less hurdles in a future statewide primary for a row office or Governor.

That's 'cause Democrats don't want to win.

[Rookie Yinzer]

So, does this essentially mean that Cheri Beasley has the nomination on lockdown?(although she'll probably lose in the general).

Yes.

[Roll Roons]

Chuck Schumer has never liked this guy - Jackson is probably hedging his bets that he'll fare better and face less hurdles in a future statewide primary for a row office or Governor.

I wonder why. TBH, I bet Jackson's campaign strategy would have been better than being locked in a windowless basement.

[JMT]

He officially dropped out, and endorsed Beasley as well. Jackson is still pretty young, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run for higher office again soon.

https://twitter.com/jeffjacksonnc/status/1471481790577709070?s=21

[TML]

Chuck Schumer has never liked this guy - Jackson is probably hedging his bets that he'll fare better and face less hurdles in a future statewide primary for a row office or Governor.

I wonder why. TBH, I bet Jackson's campaign strategy would have been better than being locked in a windowless basement.

Schumer is part of the Democratic establishment which apparently believes that out-fundraising opponents and hitting them with attack ads is the formula for winning races. This is a symptom of a donor-controlled political institution - campaigning on actual policies which please the Democratic base would apparently turn off these big donors.

[Sir Mohamed]

Lean R -> Lean R

[😥]

Too bad he didn't run in 2020

[Roll Roons]

Also, some people think Democrats were doomed to lose North Carolina Senate race last year because Biden lost the state. But he only did so by 1.5%, hardly an insurmountable margin, and got more raw votes in defeat than Tillis did in victory.

In hindsight, Collins may not have been beatable but Tillis definitely was. I wonder if people who write it off as "Trump won the state" are just trying to cope with the fact that they blatantly whiffed a crucial race.

[Sir Mohamed]

Also, some people think Democrats were doomed to lose North Carolina Senate race last year because Biden lost the state. But he only did so by 1.5%, hardly an insurmountable margin, and got more raw votes in defeat than Tillis did in victory.

In hindsight, Collins may not have been beatable but Tillis definitely was. I wonder if people who write it off as "Trump won the state" are just trying to cope with the fact that they blatantly whiffed a crucial race.

So you think this time Dems have much of a shot here? I doubt. 2022 elections are expected to take place in an R-leaning environment, so why should NC-Sen not be at least Lean R? Sure, it's an open seat, but NC has proven to be a very unflexible state with a high floor and ceiling for Dem candidates anyway.

This seat would be winnable in a Trump midterm for sure. Might even be considered Tilt D in such a scenario. Since it isn't, I don't see much of a case why this isn't at least a Lean R race for now.

[Roll Roons]

Also, some people think Democrats were doomed to lose North Carolina Senate race last year because Biden lost the state. But he only did so by 1.5%, hardly an insurmountable margin, and got more raw votes in defeat than Tillis did in victory.

In hindsight, Collins may not have been beatable but Tillis definitely was. I wonder if people who write it off as "Trump won the state" are just trying to cope with the fact that they blatantly whiffed a crucial race.

So you think this time Dems have much of a shot here? I doubt. 2022 elections are expected to take place in an R-leaning environment, so why should NC-Sen not be at least Lean R? Sure, it's an open seat, but NC has proven to be a very unflexible state with a high floor and ceiling for Dem candidates anyway.

This seat would be winnable in a Trump midterm for sure. Might even be considered Tilt D in such a scenario. Since it isn't, I don't see much of a case why this isn't at least a Lean R race for now.

I was referring to the 2020 race. For 2022, Democrats were always going to be significant underdogs in a Biden midterms.