NC-SEN, 2022: The Beasley Resurrection?

[wbrocks67]

No Green party on senate ballot.

https://twitter.com/JBremerDevt/status/1542563923542564864

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

No Green party on senate ballot.

https://twitter.com/JBremerDevt/status/1542563923542564864

Democrats celebrating less democracy. Really the "saviours of democracy" here folks.

[wbrocks67]

No Green party on senate ballot.

https://twitter.com/JBremerDevt/status/1542563923542564864

Democrats celebrating less democracy. Really the "saviours of democracy" here folks.

I mean, if its the Green party's own fault for not getting enough valid signatures, then that's on them. Should they not be required to do what is needed to get on the ballot just like everyone else?

[Sir Mohamed]

No Green party on senate ballot.

https://twitter.com/JBremerDevt/status/1542563923542564864

Likely R -> Likely R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No Green party on senate ballot.

https://twitter.com/JBremerDevt/status/1542563923542564864

Likely R -> Likely R

The election is 150 days away didn't you say AZ and NV was Lean R CCM and Kelly are leading, you had an R nut map and made AZ Lean R


Do you know why Biden Approvals are so low not because of D's and indies it's Rs at 7% that's not gonna vote D anyways, Biden is closer to 50 than 40, that's why it's a 303 map not an R nut map

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There's no third party in the race anymore

[wbrocks67]

Beasley raised $7.4M in Q2

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1546854910796464128

[Schiff for Senate]

No Green party on senate ballot.

https://twitter.com/JBremerDevt/status/1542563923542564864

Democrats celebrating less democracy. Really the "saviours of democracy" here folks.

Says the Jan 6 supporter and Big Lie believer.

[wbrocks67]

Beasley raised $7.4M in Q2

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1546854910796464128

Budd only raised $1.7M

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1548046172979228674

[SnowLabrador]

Beasley raised $7.4M in Q2

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1546854910796464128

Budd only raised $1.7M

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1548046172979228674

The question is: How much of Beasley's money came from within North Carolina? This could easily be an Amy McGrath situation where she has more support from outside her state than within her state.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Beasley raised $7.4M in Q2

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1546854910796464128

Budd only raised $1.7M

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1548046172979228674

The question is: How much of Beasley's money came from within North Carolina? This could easily be an Amy McGrath situation where she has more support from outside her state than within her state.

This won't be a McGrath situation because North Carolina is not Kentucky.  The former is a competitive state and the latter is not.  It's plausible that Beasley could win, although Budd is certainly the favorite.  There was never any possibility that McGrath would win.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

NC 2014 was insanely expensive.

I expect both sides to be "well funded", beyond the point at which who has more than the other is meaningless.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Any news here?

Dems prolly won’t win it but the margin could have implications on how contested NC will be in 2024

[wesmoorenerd]

Any news here?

Dems prolly won’t win it but the margin could have implications on how contested NC will be in 2024

It's been one of the quietest races of the cycle so far. Considering how the more prominent races are going for the GOP, that's a good thing for the Republicans.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Any news here?

Dems prolly won’t win it but the margin could have implications on how contested NC will be in 2024

It's been one of the quietest races of the cycle so far. Considering how the more prominent races are going for the GOP, that's a good thing for the Republicans.

Tedd Budd and Cheri Beasley are both relatively "boring" candidates who are running pretty normal campaigns.

[wbrocks67]

Any news here?

Dems prolly won’t win it but the margin could have implications on how contested NC will be in 2024

It's been one of the quietest races of the cycle so far. Considering how the more prominent races are going for the GOP, that's a good thing for the Republicans.

Tedd Budd and Cheri Beasley are both relatively "boring" candidates who are running pretty normal campaigns.

Except Beasley is the one actually out there, getting coverage, raising money. Is Budd even campaigning? He seems as silent as Vance in OH, with not much money to boot either.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Any news here?

Dems prolly won’t win it but the margin could have implications on how contested NC will be in 2024

It's been one of the quietest races of the cycle so far. Considering how the more prominent races are going for the GOP, that's a good thing for the Republicans.

Tedd Budd and Cheri Beasley are both relatively "boring" candidates who are running pretty normal campaigns.

Except Beasley is the one actually out there, getting coverage, raising money. Is Budd even campaigning? He seems as silent as Vance in OH, with not much money to boot either.

At least Budd doesn't have the same representation as Vance. If this race had the same dynamics as Ohio Dems might actually have a real shot at winning but right now I'm not seeing it.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Any news here?

Dems prolly won’t win it but the margin could have implications on how contested NC will be in 2024

It's been one of the quietest races of the cycle so far. Considering how the more prominent races are going for the GOP, that's a good thing for the Republicans.

Tedd Budd and Cheri Beasley are both relatively "boring" candidates who are running pretty normal campaigns.

Except Beasley is the one actually out there, getting coverage, raising money. Is Budd even campaigning? He seems as silent as Vance in OH, with not much money to boot either.

At least Budd doesn't have the same representation as Vance. If this race had the same dynamics as Ohio Dems might actually have a real shot at winning but right now I'm not seeing it.

I think there’s a few important distinctions there, even beyond the fact that Tim Ryan is an infinitely stronger candidate than Beasley.  Vance isn’t just having poor fundraising, his campaign itself has gone completely dark on the airwaves, he’s not even able to pay top campaign staff, and when you factor in debts the campaign is literally broke IIRC.  

Moreover, Vance has been invisible since the primary.  He rarely does campaign events in Ohio, he doesn’t seem willing to actually put in the work to do campaign events, and even in the primary had basically no GOTV operation and just coasted on Trump’s endorsement.  By all accounts, the lack of any semblance of attention to developing even a bare bones GOTV operation has only gotten worse since the primary.  Without the Trump endorsement, Vance would have almost certainly finished a very distant third or even fourth place in the primary.  

Ultimately, there is still plenty of time for Vance to right the ship (although the margin of victory will likely be underwhelming no matter what at this point).  However, he has given Tim Ryan a very narrow path to victory in a “Democrat does literally everything right and Republican does everything wrong scenario.”  The other issue Vance has is that he was supposed to be the one driving Republican turnout.  The Republican base isn’t remotely excited about DeWine.  Trump campaigning for Vance in late October could definitely help there, but Vance’s campaign needs at least some sort of GOTV operation and needs to make some effort to counter the Ryan campaign’s messaging.

In NC, OTOH, you have generic R vs. generic D in a Republican-friendly midterm in a mildly Republican-leaning state.  Both candidates are running fairly unremarkable boilerplate campaigns and neither is doing everything right or wrong.  It’s exactly the sort of race you’d expect to go with the flow of the national environment.  Budd is running a low-profile campaign.  Vance is running at best a phantom campaign and at worst basically doing everything wrong against a top-tier opponent who is doing everything right.  Ohio is a Republican state, but you also have the best Senate campaign of the cycle facing arguably the worst Senate campaign of the cycle by any even semi-credible major party nominee. 

Even Walker and Oz’s campaign’s aren’t this bad since they’re at least running a campaign.  I mean, really think about how much of a disaster your campaign has to be to create even a very narrow path for Democrats to flip a Senate seat (or even come reasonably close) in this environment.  That’s just a whole different level of awful.  Budd is running a generic, low-profile GE campaign and that’s probably the right play for him, but he’s still running a campaign and Cherri Beasley is no Tim Ryan.

[windjammer]

I'm not seeing any threads for North Carolina so I believe it is time to open one?


Any ideas about how this race is looking? It seems to me it's a bit generic democrat vs generic republican in a state that leans rep.

[windjammer]

https://indyweek.com/news/northcarolina/with-go-everywhere-strategy-beasley-breaks-with-dem-playbook-for-statewide-races/

Beasley doesn't seem bad at all to be honest. But I suppose the current gop environment is going to screw her in such a polarized environment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Budd is underperforming just like Vance and Rubio the D's are looking at a 51/56 Senate majority evenif they lose the H be sure the H is gerrymandering, users keep saying the Environment, it's because Trump Alito, ACB and Gorsuch and Thomas have gerrymandering not because the Environment, there is no gerrymandering in the Senate, because Sinema blocked Voting Rights that would have done away with soft money and gerrymandering


There is a 50 percent chance we get Divided Congress a 40 percent chance we get Secular Trifecta and only a 10 percent chance R Congress

But Discord pollsters like Sir Woodbury thinks it's 100 percent chance it's an RCongress that's why he doesn't post much it's not looking good for R nut maps

Not to mention what program the Rs will cut if they get control

[wbrocks67]

https://indyweek.com/news/northcarolina/with-go-everywhere-strategy-beasley-breaks-with-dem-playbook-for-statewide-races/

Beasley doesn't seem bad at all to be honest. But I suppose the current gop environment is going to screw her in such a polarized environment.

I mean, I would argue that the *current* environment doesn't even favor Rs right now tbh.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It doesn't favor Rs, Minnesota Mike said it best that should the Rs win they want to be right than wrong that's why despite poll after poll shows D's winning the SEN, progressive Moderate still has an R nut mao

The only people that Rs are gonna win 54 Seats are the hardcore Trump supporters even on Fox news they predict D's to hold the Sen and they said in fact Beasley can win

[wesmoorenerd]

https://indyweek.com/news/northcarolina/with-go-everywhere-strategy-beasley-breaks-with-dem-playbook-for-statewide-races/

Beasley doesn't seem bad at all to be honest. But I suppose the current gop environment is going to screw her in such a polarized environment.

From what I've heard, it seems that Beasley's campaign has been picking up as of late, and I don't think it's that much of a stretch to say she's a little stronger than Budd is. That said, "a little stronger" is most likely not sufficient to flip NC in the absence of a more favorable national environment.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://indyweek.com/news/northcarolina/with-go-everywhere-strategy-beasley-breaks-with-dem-playbook-for-statewide-races/

Beasley doesn't seem bad at all to be honest. But I suppose the current gop environment is going to screw her in such a polarized environment.

From what I've heard, it seems that Beasley's campaign has been picking up as of late, and I don't think it's that much of a stretch to say she's a little stronger than Budd is. That said, "a little stronger" is most likely not sufficient to flip NC in the absence of a more favorable national environment.

I think Beasley previously being a judge rather than a true politician probably helps her a bit cause people look at her in a slightly less partisan way than they would at Budd who was a congressman.