NC-SEN, 2022: The Beasley Resurrection?

[West_Midlander]

FTR, I don't like Beasley, McCrory, or Walker so I would strongly consider voting for progressive Independent Brenda Rodriguez if Budd loses the nomination.

[Zendstrummer]

This election is safe r right?

[SnowLabrador]

This election is safe r right?

Yes. If Democrats couldn't beat Tillis, they sure as hell aren't winning an open seat in a considerably redder year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This election is safe r right?

Lol there hasn't been 1 poll on this race stop stating races are safe R and it hasn't been polled yet

One internal poll had Beasley down 2 pts it's called wave insurance

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Zachary_Cohen/status/1485666620236353539

[Roll Roons]

It's also pretty unlikely that the current NC map stands, so it's not clear if Walker will even have a place to go.

[2016]

It's also pretty unlikely that the current NC map stands, so it's not clear if Walker will even have a place to go.

Why do you say it's unlikely? The NC State Supreme Court has already decided to throw out the appeal over redistricting.

[BoiseBoy]

It's also pretty unlikely that the current NC map stands, so it's not clear if Walker will even have a place to go.

Why do you say it's unlikely? The NC State Supreme Court has already decided to throw out the appeal over redistricting.

That is just not true. Oral arguments are February 2nd.

https://redistricting.lls.edu/wp-content/uploads/NC-league-20220114-briefing-order.pdf

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1486852451630301184?s=21

[Grumpier Than Thou]

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1486852451630301184?s=21

Lol

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1486852451630301184?s=21

Well, I wasn't expecting that. He's still not winning the primary.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1486852451630301184?s=21

Does he want to lose?

[coloradocowboi]

This election is safe r right?

In the sense that the statistical likelihood Democrats win here is very low, yes. But a multitude of factors could put the seat in play and the GOP would be unwise to not contest this race vigorously.

[Vern]

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1486852451630301184?s=21

Well, I wasn't expecting that. He's still not winning the primary.

I think he has a chance. Ted isn’t that popular.

[Ferguson97]

This election is safe r right?

Sorta kind? It's certainly not Alabama levels of Safe R, but I'd be utterly shocked if the Democrats won here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Turnout can exceed expectations that's why LA is a new battleground, it's a Runoff state and Kennedy isnt gonna run up the score on Mixon with multiple Candidates in the race, the Election is still far away and Low Approvals don't matter as much when it's VBM, yes D's only need WI, PA and MI but turnout among D's are higher thanRs the Last Midterm was 46/43

Users look at Approvals too much it's called wave insurance, also Beasley is a judge have you seen the KY numbers and WVA approval numbers Ferguson on Beshear and Manchin Approvals they're 6o percent it's not outrageous to believe we can win in NC and FL where DeSantis is only leading 45/41 over Crist

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Turnout can exceed expectations that's why LA is a new battleground, it's a Runoff state and Kennedy isnt gonna run up the score on Mixon with multiple Candidates in the race, the Election is still far away and Low Approvals don't matter as much when it's VBM, yes D's only need WI, PA and MI but turnout among D's are higher thanRs the Last Midterm was 46/43

Users look at Approvals too much it's called wave insurance, also Beasley is a judge have you seen the KY numbers and WVA approval numbers Ferguson on Beshear and Manchin Approvals they're 6o percent it's not outrageous to believe we can win in NC and FL where DeSantis is only leading 45/41 over Crist

OC, this forum loves ya but Louisiana is a Trump+19 state, Biden has horrible approvals there, and 2022 will likely be a Republican leaning year. Double bonus for it being a very pro oil state, especially now. Kennedy is pro-Trump and has the incumbency advantage and obviously no other Republican has declared candidacy. The Dem field is basically two no name sacrificial lambs who are going to be crushed in the general election. For Dems to even have a shot here they are going to need a significantly bluer wave than 2018 which is not going to happen.

[Calthrina950]

Turnout can exceed expectations that's why LA is a new battleground, it's a Runoff state and Kennedy isnt gonna run up the score on Mixon with multiple Candidates in the race, the Election is still far away and Low Approvals don't matter as much when it's VBM, yes D's only need WI, PA and MI but turnout among D's are higher thanRs the Last Midterm was 46/43

Users look at Approvals too much it's called wave insurance, also Beasley is a judge have you seen the KY numbers and WVA approval numbers Ferguson on Beshear and Manchin Approvals they're 6o percent it's not outrageous to believe we can win in NC and FL where DeSantis is only leading 45/41 over Crist

OC, this forum loves ya but Louisiana is a Trump+19 state, Biden has horrible approvals there, and 2022 will likely be a Republican leaning year. Double bonus for it being a very pro oil state, especially now. Kennedy is pro-Trump and has the incumbency advantage and obviously no other Republican has declared candidacy. The Dem field is basically two no name sacrificial lambs who are going to be crushed in the general election. For Dems to even have a shot here they are going to need a significantly bluer wave than 2018 which is not going to happen.

Why try to persuade him? One of his traits-besides spamming threads-is that he doesn't change his views or admit the validity of arguments made by others.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Cook has moved this race to Lean R

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1497201675739697158

[patzer]

The NC change makes sense, but there's no way Colorado isn't safe.

[2016]

The NC change makes sense, but there's no way Colorado isn't safe.

Colorado is never SAFE during a Democratic Presidential Midterm Year. True, the State has shifted to the left over the years but it isn't Virginia.

[MT Treasurer]

Cook has moved this race to Lean R

[2016]

Cook has moved this race to Lean R

It's the right thing to do! If you compare Job Approvals Biden is in a much worse Situation to Obama in February 2010.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Not the Senate race, but Jackson dropped into the 14th:

https://twitter.com/JeffJacksonNC/status/1497285671999967235

[Roll Roons]

Not the Senate race, but Jackson dropped into the 14th:

https://twitter.com/JeffJacksonNC/status/1497285671999967235

I would have to think he's the solid frontrunner for that seat. I'm sure he still has a fairly sizable warchest from his Senate run.