Senate Results thread

[Gabu]

Virginia Link (when votes are counted):

http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/index.htm

Or on CNN, for those so inclined:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/VA/S/01/index.html

[Gabu]

Only Chesterfield County has anything yet.

Campbell and Amherst are now trickling in, too.

[Gabu]

CNN just called West Virginia for Byrd... no surprise there.

[Gabu]

Nope. Allen just jumped up by 25,000 votes. It's probably over in Virginia, sadly.

Not yet.

Where are Webb's 30,000 extra votes going to come from?  I'm not feeling too hopeful about this.

And Allen's now leading by more than the Green Party candidate's percentage, so you can't blame it on Parker, either.

[Gabu]

Those voter intimidation calls may have won it for Allen.

Here's a question that I've wondered: is there any recourse for a candidate that is suspected to have lost through criminal tactics by people not affiliated with his or her opponent's campaign?  That is, can they do anything, or do they just charge the people involved and then let the opponent win anyway?

Because if it's the latter, that seems kind of messed up.

I'm also not asking because I want to overthrow Allen's victory, for anyone who is planning on calling me a partisan hack as a result of the above question.

[Gabu]

Exit poll gives Tester a narrow lead in Montana

After watching Virginia come in, I'm refusing to even consider exit polls anymore, because they make me too hopeful.

[Gabu]

Okay, I have a question about these CNN exit polls.  Am I going insane, or is it the case that, as results come in, they're changing to bring them closer to the expected outcome?  I could swear that Allen's performance among men and women has gone up since the exit poll first went up.

Something weird is going on with these exit polls.  The exact same thing happened in 2004, if I recall correctly.

[Gabu]

Burns with a STUNNING 13% lead!

...with ~1000 votes counted...

[Gabu]

How the hell is Pederson leading? Its awesome.

You know what would be great?  If Allen won but then Pederson won to give Democrats the Senate.

...

HAHAHAHA

Okay, back to reality...

[Gabu]

Oh man, VA is ridiculously close.

I need to stop watching it.  I'll have no fingernails left at this rate.

[Gabu]

omgogmgomgomgmogomomgomgomgmoog

go webb plz

[Gabu]

Oh YES...
 
Will Allen call for a recount?

Both Webb and Allen will, probably.  I am seeing two different results from this race. 

Yeah, that one from here is still showing Allen in the lead...

wtf?

[Gabu]

When all is said and done, Dems carry MT and VA..but lose TN and MO. Just shy of the three seats needed. MO is going to get much closer, but I don't think the Democrats pull it out. MO always seems to tighten up but the Dems lose.

I'm not 100% sure McCaskill is done yet.  Check the county map - both Jackson and St. Louis Counties have only begun to come in, and both have McCaskill ahead.

I think it'll definitely be a close one.

[Gabu]

Make me proud, Montana... please.

  There is a significant disparity between the VA results CNN and MSNBC is reporting and Virginia's official election site. Take a look. What is going on?

Yeah, I dunno what that's about...

[Gabu]

According to the VA Elections site, 20 precincts are left open:
1 in Arlington County
3 in Fairfax County
1 in Fairfax City
3 in Loudoun County
3 in Prince William County
1 in Halifax County
1 in Isle of Wight County
2 in James City County
1 in Virginia Beach City
4 in Richmond City

That... looks rather Democratic.

[Gabu]

According to the VA Elections site, 20 precincts are left open:
1 in Arlington County
3 in Fairfax County
1 in Fairfax City
3 in Loudoun County
3 in Prince William County
1 in Halifax County
1 in Isle of Wight County
2 in James City County
1 in Virginia Beach City
4 in Richmond City

That... looks rather Democratic.

And it was.

Both sites now have Webb leading.

[Gabu]

Automatic recount in Virginia?

Probably.  I think I read that an auto-recount occurs when the result is within 1%.

[Gabu]

McCaskill is now in the lead in Missouri with 1/3 of Jackson County and 2/3 of St. Louis County still to come in.

She's looking pretty good, I think.

[Gabu]

McCaskil has fallen 3% behind in MO.

Methinks this is going to be a nailbiter as well...

Link for McCaskill? CNN still has Talent ahead.

She used to be ahead, but now is not.

[Gabu]

McCaskil has fallen 3% behind in MO.

Methinks this is going to be a nailbiter as well...

Link for McCaskill? CNN still has Talent ahead.

She used to be ahead, but now is not.

I wondered where you got that from, anyway?

According to the Missouri Secretary of State site, half of Jefferson and 1/3 of St Louis are in, and Talent is still leading.

CNN's site had McCaskill very barely ahead, but then I guess some more Republican counties reported some more votes.  CNN's site is in accordance currently with the result you state.

[Gabu]

Now according to CNN she has the lead

Looks like St. Louis and Jackson came back with some more results.

For what it's worth, McCaskill is running around 3% ahead of how Carnahan did in 2002 in all of St. Louis City and St. Louis and Jackson Counties... and a few more spot-checks shows that that 3% increase seems roughly uniform over Missouri, although a few counties buck that trend.

A 3% increase over 2002 would be a 52-47 victory for McCaskill.

Not that this means anything, just speculating.

[Gabu]

Montana is now at 44%, and Tester continues to rape Burns 53-45.

[Gabu]

Montana is now at 44%, and Tester continues to rape Burns 53-45.

I don't understand why the forum even questioned whether Tester would win.

Me either.

I fully and unconditionally apologize for losing faith at the last moment.

[Gabu]

Talent and Tester also seem to be in good shape.

Why do you say Talent is in good shape?  McCaskill is up 11,000 votes and St. Louis County is still only half reporting.

Talent has outperformed himself from 2002 in some small counties, but in pretty well every large county, McCaskill is doing better than Carnahan did in 2002.  I think McCaskill has a very good shot.

[Gabu]

But that's just it: St Louis has dumped half and Jackson all of their Democrat votes, and McCaskill leads by 24000, or so.

Not that I believe the GOP can make them up in a single county (in addition to the others that haven't reported at all), but I was a mite hasty.

There's also the issue of how Jasper will vote.  In 2002 it only gave Talent a little over an 11,000-vote majority, nowhere near the 24,000 McCaskill leads by.  Depends on whether Talent does better or worse there than in 2002.  If he does worse than he did in 2002 in Jasper, I'd say it's probably all over.