Senate Results thread

[Wakie]

Racebaiting works in Tennessee.

[Conan]

McCaskill takes lead

[Umengus]

anyone knows the political composition of the VA supreme court?

[Gabu]

McCaskill is now in the lead in Missouri with 1/3 of Jackson County and 2/3 of St. Louis County still to come in.

She's looking pretty good, I think.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

based on my earlier posted odds, if the GOP lost VA, they also lost MT and MO.  I based this on the gay marriage amendment in VA making that state the best GOP chance for retaining the Senate.

...So I think the Dems will take the Senate.

This is how I see the current odds in the Senate.  I'll make my prediction later tonight.

R+2 (NJ+, MD+)                                             0.1% chance
R+1 (PA-, NJ+ MD+)                                       0.3%
R+0 (PA-, OH-,NJ+, MD+)                                 1%
R-1(PA-, OH-, MD+)                                        10%
R-2(PA-,OH-)                                                  15%
R-3(PA-,OH-,RI-)                                             25%
R-4(PA-, OH-, RI-, MT-)                                   20%
R-5(PA-, OH-, RI-, MT-, MO-)                           14%
R-6(PA-, OH-, RI-, MT-, MO-, VA-)                    11%
R-7(PA-, OH-, RI-, MT-, MO-, VA-, TN-)              3%
R-8(PA-, OH-, RI-, MT-, MO-, VA-, TN-,AZ-)     0.6%


GOP odds:
PA  50:1
OH 40:1
NJ  35:1
MD 5:2
RI 10:9
MT 1:1
MO 9:10
VA 5:6
TN  1:15
AZ  1:20

[platypeanArchcow]

Link for McCaskill? CNN still has Talent ahead.

[Gabu]

McCaskil has fallen 3% behind in MO.

Methinks this is going to be a nailbiter as well...

Link for McCaskill? CNN still has Talent ahead.

She used to be ahead, but now is not.

[Verily]

Anyone know what Clay County, MO is like? It's pretty big and hasn't reported a single vote yet.

[Rob]

Anyone know what Clay County, MO is like? It's pretty big and hasn't reported a single vote yet.

It was a bellwether in 2004, voting 53-46 for Bush.

[Storebought]

McCaskil has fallen 3% behind in MO.

Methinks this is going to be a nailbiter as well...

Link for McCaskill? CNN still has Talent ahead.

She used to be ahead, but now is not.

I wondered where you got that from, anyway?

According to the Missouri Secretary of State site, half of Jefferson and 1/3 of St Louis are in, and Talent is still leading.

[Gabu]

McCaskil has fallen 3% behind in MO.

Methinks this is going to be a nailbiter as well...

Link for McCaskill? CNN still has Talent ahead.

She used to be ahead, but now is not.

I wondered where you got that from, anyway?

According to the Missouri Secretary of State site, half of Jefferson and 1/3 of St Louis are in, and Talent is still leading.

CNN's site had McCaskill very barely ahead, but then I guess some more Republican counties reported some more votes.  CNN's site is in accordance currently with the result you state.

[AuH2O]

There are definitely votes for both Talent and McCaskill still out there.

[Storebought]

McCaskil has fallen 3% behind in MO.

Methinks this is going to be a nailbiter as well...

Link for McCaskill? CNN still has Talent ahead.

She used to be ahead, but now is not.

I wondered where you got that from, anyway?

According to the Missouri Secretary of State site, half of Jefferson and 1/3 of St Louis are in, and Talent is still leading.

CNN's site had McCaskill very barely ahead, but then I guess some more Republican counties reported some more votes.  CNN's site is in accordance currently with the result you state.

Now according to CNN she has the lead

[J. J.]

St. Louis City is separate an 92% reported.  St. Louis county had about a 50,000 D margin in 2000 and 2004; it's at 48% reporting.  Clay is slightly R, in the presidential years.

There are a number of smaller very GOP counties that have not reported.

[danwxman]

FoxNews reporting NONE of Kansas City has been counted yet!

[Deano963]

OMG. McCaskill has taken the lead. The Dems might win the Senate.

[Gabu]

Now according to CNN she has the lead

Looks like St. Louis and Jackson came back with some more results.

For what it's worth, McCaskill is running around 3% ahead of how Carnahan did in 2002 in all of St. Louis City and St. Louis and Jackson Counties... and a few more spot-checks shows that that 3% increase seems roughly uniform over Missouri, although a few counties buck that trend.

A 3% increase over 2002 would be a 52-47 victory for McCaskill.

Not that this means anything, just speculating.

[danwxman]

OMG. McCaskill has taken the lead. The Dems might win the Senate.

Yea, I take back what I said earlier...The Dems really look like they will win the senate.

[Verily]

McCaskill is leading. I think she will pull through. The Dems have likely won the Senate!

[Gabu]

Montana is now at 44%, and Tester continues to rape Burns 53-45.

[André]

Robert C. Byrd for President pro tempore, again!

[Conan]

Webb: "I agree with Allen that we need to let the democratics process yada yada yada, but i'd also like to say that we've won!"

Hes gonna be aweosme.

[Verily]

Robert C. Byrd for President pro tempore, again!

Ewww... But I guess they have to.

[Deano963]

Robert C. Byrd for President pro tempore, again!

LOL. That old coot is doing nothing but holding the seat for Joe Manchin.

[Schmitz in 1972]

More and more it looks like neither MO nor VA will be a hold.

I don't know how Virginians can be so feeble-minded. With a greater margin than most polls predicted, they passed the gay marriage ban, not realizing that electing the likes of Jim Webb is a sure way to get gay marriage legalized nationwide within 10 years.

Things looked good in 1986. We had just won Bowers v. Hardwick (case in point that this supposedly "conservative" court is far less conservative than in the late 80s), had confirmed Scalia and Rehnquist. White was starting to vote with conservatives on all the major cases, O'Connor was still quite good (her heroic dissent in SD v. Dole was one year away), and Powell, Brennan, Marshall, and Blackmun were all getting really old.

Then the country had the wisdom to give the Dems a senate majority. Bork was even more qualified than unanimously confirmed Scalia, but with a majority the Democrats gleefully voted him down. So from 1987 to 1991 when there were three critical retirements we got only stealth justices, only one of which would end up panning out (Thomas).

sigh.