Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

Unconfirmed : But it seems as if Putin wants a military coup in Ukraine.

Well he did openly call on the Ukrainian military to overthrow Zelensky

[StateBoiler]

It's time to recognize that Putin is a madman - literally mentally ill. He senses his impending mortality and is trying to immortalize himself by recreating an empire. But he will destroy his nation and his people in his attempt.

The question is if anyone inside the Kremlin realize this, and if any of them will have the balls to save the world from nuclear war.

Going on past history, they let Stalin and Brezhnev die of old age. The ones that got overthrown were Khrushchev and Gorbachev (and Yeltsin from a certain viewpoint).

[Cassius]

What is Putin's long-term plan, right now? Does anyone have anything but a vague idea? He's pointed out what he doesn't like about the status quo, but what does he intend to do with Ukraine? Does Putin himself even know yet?

This is a tough one to answer as the decision making process in the Kremlin is so opaque (and then there’s the impossibility of making a window into Putin’s soul). I’d assume that the ‘ideal’ outcome from Putin’s perspective would be a neutered Ukraine, with the door shut forever on the possibility of EU and NATO membership, alongside incorporation into Russian dominated regional structures (Eurasian Economic Union et al) and recognition of Crimea as part of Russia and of the independence of the Donbas republics. The problem is, in order for such a settlement to stick you’d need a reasonably pro-Russian government in what’s left of Ukraine, which seems very unlikely, so then that gives rise to the scenario of a permanent Russian military occupation in the country in order to prop such a government up, which I don’t think is ideal from Putin’s perspective. I think there’s certainly a big element of ‘making it up as he goes along’ here.

Edit: re the Donbas republics, if the above scenario did pan out it would actually make far more sense for them to be reincorporated into Ukraine in order to increase the size of the Russian speaking population and give more weight to the part of the country with the closest economic ties to Russia. The Donbas republics have realistically been a net negative for Putin’s influence in Ukraine as their detachment from the rest of the country has weakened the pro-Russian side of Ukrainian politics.

[GeneralMacArthur]

What is Putin's long-term plan, right now? Does anyone have anything but a vague idea? He's pointed out what he doesn't like about the status quo, but what does he intend to do with Ukraine? Does Putin himself even know yet?

This is a tough one to answer as the decision making process in the Kremlin is so opaque (and then there’s the impossibility of making a window into Putin’s soul). I’d assume that the ‘ideal’ outcome from Putin’s perspective would be a neutered Ukraine, with the door shut forever on the possibility of EU and NATO membership, alongside incorporation into Russian dominated regional structures (Eurasian Economic Union et al) and recognition of Crimea as part of Russia and of the independence of the Donbas republics. The problem is, in order for such a settlement to stick you’d need a reasonably pro-Russian government in what’s left of Ukraine, which seems very unlikely, so then that gives rise to the scenario of a permanent Russian military occupation in the country in order to prop such as government up, which I don’t think is ideal from Putin’s perspective. I think there’s certainly a big element of ‘making it up as he goes along’ here.

Ukrainian elections were polarized between pro-Russia and anti-Russia factions even with Crimea and the Donbas republics.  Take those away and the pro-Western factions will dominate.  It would be like Dems trying to win an election if we surrendered Illinois to Canada and California to Mexico.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1497232931940667396

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1497232931940667396

Translation from Baghdad Bob from English if we're being pessimistic:

Russian forces have passed Chernihiv on their way to Kyiv. The bulk of the forces have advanced to about 50km of the city center. Clashes are beginning in the northern suburbs as the main body of the forces approaches.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/coe/status/1497240124836519939


https://twitter.com/euronews/status/1497238229178884128

[compucomp]

I'm aware of the geography and that Kiev is highly vulnerable to an attack from Belarus. However this should have also been obvious to the Ukrainian military who could have been preparing defenses in depth between the border and Kiev, which they either didn't do or did a very poor job. Whether it's impressive or not, Zelensky is now under threat himself and that's what probably forced him to ask for an armistice. It's definitely not at all comparable to the Winter War, which saw the Finns repel multiple Soviet attacks and keep the Soviets off their land for 3 months and had a 5-1 casualty ratio. I think there has been a moving of goalposts by the West where the Russians are expected to win instantly and anything short of that is a disappointment, despite the situation on the ground where Ukraine will likely still lose within a week.

If you were truly aware of the geography you might note that in between Kiev and the border is the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone and I'm not sure if the Ukrainian government or military would have been particularly keen to dig in and create trenches, redoubts and strong-points there for certain fairly obvious reasons. They could perhaps have done more further south, but the open geography would immediately make that difficult - there's not much point in creating strong defences that are easy simply wheel around and bypass.

In general, of course, you are not being honest here and I suspect there is little point in further engagement.

Clearly that was another flaw with the Ukrainian defense plan, just like France in 1940 with the Ardenne, they planned their defenses around an "impassable" natural barrier that wasn't actually impassable. But first, this was not a surprise attack and the Ukrainians should have been digging trenches and otherwise building fortifications to blunt the expected attack from Belarus. They do have entrenchments in place in Luhansk and Donetsk and thus the attacks from the DPR and LPR have not gotten very far. Second, the "trading space for time" and "bleed the enemy" strategy you refer to implies Kiev needs to be given up and needed to be combined with an evacuation of the capital and Zelensky to Lvov. But Zelensky chose to stay in Kiev, which is good to keep Ukrainian morale high, but it had to be combined with an all-out defense of Kiev or else the result is what we see now; Zelensky is threatened directly within 2 days and is forced to ask for an armistice.

[sting in the rafters]

What is with this idealism from everyone here that a military agreement with the Russian Federation not related to nuclear arms control is worth the paper it's signed on? How delusional do you have to be to think they'd honor any sort of ceasefire/treaty?

Then war continues.

Russians are going to go until either Zelensky surrenders or they have removed Zelensky from power forcefully.

Yeah my point is that'll happen regardless of whatever talks occur. The die's been cast. We're at the point where anything less than capturing the Maidan is a failure for the Kremlin.

The Russians are showing some restraint here. It's been commented on by military types they're not using their artillery much at all when Russian military strategy historically has relied on artillery a good amount, and there's still plenty of soldiers on the borders that have not invaded yet. So they're not trying to kill everyone a la say Grozny, but if told "f#ck you, we're going to die to the last man", the artillery is being held in reserve and could come in. That could be the threat to force Ukraine to the table.

We'll see what happens at Minsk. Russian ground forces are in Kiev and we have a day and a half until the American military intelligence prediction of when it would fall.

Right but if Ukraine comes to the table and signs an armistice I don't see what/who is stopping the Russians from simply waiting a bit and trying again to take the whole country.

[lfromnj]

I'm aware of the geography and that Kiev is highly vulnerable to an attack from Belarus. However this should have also been obvious to the Ukrainian military who could have been preparing defenses in depth between the border and Kiev, which they either didn't do or did a very poor job. Whether it's impressive or not, Zelensky is now under threat himself and that's what probably forced him to ask for an armistice. It's definitely not at all comparable to the Winter War, which saw the Finns repel multiple Soviet attacks and keep the Soviets off their land for 3 months and had a 5-1 casualty ratio. I think there has been a moving of goalposts by the West where the Russians are expected to win instantly and anything short of that is a disappointment, despite the situation on the ground where Ukraine will likely still lose within a week.

If you were truly aware of the geography you might note that in between Kiev and the border is the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone and I'm not sure if the Ukrainian government or military would have been particularly keen to dig in and create trenches, redoubts and strong-points there for certain fairly obvious reasons. They could perhaps have done more further south, but the open geography would immediately make that difficult - there's not much point in creating strong defences that are easy simply wheel around and bypass.

In general, of course, you are not being honest here and I suspect there is little point in further engagement.

Clearly that was another flaw with the Ukrainian defense plan, just like France in 1940 with the Ardenne, they planned their defenses around an "impassable" natural barrier that wasn't actually impassable. But first, this was not a surprise attack and the Ukrainians should have been digging trenches and otherwise building fortifications to blunt the expected attack from Belarus. They do have entrenchments in place in Luhansk and Donetsk and thus the attacks from the DPR and LPR have not gotten very far. Second, the "trading space for time" and "bleed the enemy" strategy you refer to implies Kiev needs to be given up and needed to be combined with an evacuation of the capital and Zelensky to Lvov. But Zelensky chose to stay in Kiev, which is good to keep Ukrainian morale high, but it had to be combined with an all-out defense of Kiev or else the result is what we see now; Zelensky is threatened directly within 2 days and is forced to ask for an armistice.

Its not impassable to go through Chernobyls radiation zone. It is however harder to set up a dug in defense in the region

[Horus]

https://twitter.com/coe/status/1497240124836519939

I'm sure Armenia and Serbia voted no, but who were the others?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is with this idealism from everyone here that a military agreement with the Russian Federation not related to nuclear arms control is worth the paper it's signed on? How delusional do you have to be to think they'd honor any sort of ceasefire/treaty?

Then war continues.

Russians are going to go until either Zelensky surrenders or they have removed Zelensky from power forcefully.

Yeah my point is that'll happen regardless of whatever talks occur. The die's been cast. We're at the point where anything less than capturing the Maidan is a failure for the Kremlin.

The Russians are showing some restraint here. It's been commented on by military types they're not using their artillery much at all when Russian military strategy historically has relied on artillery a good amount, and there's still plenty of soldiers on the borders that have not invaded yet. So they're not trying to kill everyone a la say Grozny, but if told "f#ck you, we're going to die to the last man", the artillery is being held in reserve and could come in. That could be the threat to force Ukraine to the table.

We'll see what happens at Minsk. Russian ground forces are in Kiev and we have a day and a half until the American military intelligence prediction of when it would fall.

Right but if Ukraine comes to the table and signs an armistice I don't see what/who is stopping the Russians from simply waiting a bit and trying again to take the whole country.

The Russians were always able to launch a similar operation against Ukraine.
What matters is does Moscow think it will gain from such an operation.
Putin won't invade just because he can. He invades if he thinks the situation demands it (which is not at all an easy threshold to reach).
From his public statements he clearly doesn't think this war is anything but defensive for the country he leads anyway. A good place to dig in and fight, with odds that are most in his favor.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/Eurovision/status/1497243799889711104

[sting in the rafters]

What is with this idealism from everyone here that a military agreement with the Russian Federation not related to nuclear arms control is worth the paper it's signed on? How delusional do you have to be to think they'd honor any sort of ceasefire/treaty?

Then war continues.

Russians are going to go until either Zelensky surrenders or they have removed Zelensky from power forcefully.

Yeah my point is that'll happen regardless of whatever talks occur. The die's been cast. We're at the point where anything less than capturing the Maidan is a failure for the Kremlin.

The Russians are showing some restraint here. It's been commented on by military types they're not using their artillery much at all when Russian military strategy historically has relied on artillery a good amount, and there's still plenty of soldiers on the borders that have not invaded yet. So they're not trying to kill everyone a la say Grozny, but if told "f#ck you, we're going to die to the last man", the artillery is being held in reserve and could come in. That could be the threat to force Ukraine to the table.

We'll see what happens at Minsk. Russian ground forces are in Kiev and we have a day and a half until the American military intelligence prediction of when it would fall.

Right but if Ukraine comes to the table and signs an armistice I don't see what/who is stopping the Russians from simply waiting a bit and trying again to take the whole country.

The Russians were always able to launch a similar operation against Ukraine.
What matters is does Moscow think it will gain from such an operation.
Putin won't invade just because he can. He invades if he thinks the situation demands it (which is not at all an easy threshold to reach).
From his public statements he clearly doesn't think this war is anything but defensive for the country he leads anyway. A good place to dig in and fight, with odds that are most in his favor.

Frankly I don't care for what Moscow says, I pay attention to what it does. A nation doesn't commit 2 field armies, 4 air divisions, and 40ish warships to an invasion, deploy half 36 hours in, and launch an assault on another nation's capital without a goal of regime change.

[Illiniwek]

https://twitter.com/Eurovision/status/1497243799889711104

Putin has overplayed his hand now guys.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/Eurovision/status/1497243799889711104

So that’s the Champions League, Formula One and now Eurovision. In addition to the Council of Europe, on the more substantive side of things.

Doubt this will dissuade Putin, but hopefully some Russians will take the intended lesson about their country being pushed into pariah state status.

It will all mean nothing though if Russian sponsorships etc aren’t cancelled, or if they’re allowed to participate in similar events later in the year. The funding still matters far more than the gesture.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/TSN_Sports/status/1497231107577630721


https://twitter.com/TSN_Sports/status/1497234776905842688

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is with this idealism from everyone here that a military agreement with the Russian Federation not related to nuclear arms control is worth the paper it's signed on? How delusional do you have to be to think they'd honor any sort of ceasefire/treaty?

Then war continues.

Russians are going to go until either Zelensky surrenders or they have removed Zelensky from power forcefully.

Yeah my point is that'll happen regardless of whatever talks occur. The die's been cast. We're at the point where anything less than capturing the Maidan is a failure for the Kremlin.

The Russians are showing some restraint here. It's been commented on by military types they're not using their artillery much at all when Russian military strategy historically has relied on artillery a good amount, and there's still plenty of soldiers on the borders that have not invaded yet. So they're not trying to kill everyone a la say Grozny, but if told "f#ck you, we're going to die to the last man", the artillery is being held in reserve and could come in. That could be the threat to force Ukraine to the table.

We'll see what happens at Minsk. Russian ground forces are in Kiev and we have a day and a half until the American military intelligence prediction of when it would fall.

Right but if Ukraine comes to the table and signs an armistice I don't see what/who is stopping the Russians from simply waiting a bit and trying again to take the whole country.

The Russians were always able to launch a similar operation against Ukraine.
What matters is does Moscow think it will gain from such an operation.
Putin won't invade just because he can. He invades if he thinks the situation demands it (which is not at all an easy threshold to reach).
From his public statements he clearly doesn't think this war is anything but defensive for the country he leads anyway. A good place to dig in and fight, with odds that are most in his favor.

Frankly I don't care for what Moscow says, I pay attention to what it does. A nation doesn't commit 2 field armies, 4 air divisions, and 40ish warships to an invasion, deploy half 36 hours in, and launch an assault on another nation's capital without a goal of regime change.

That's a fair point. But I'm pointing out that segmenting this into two or more wars (which is what your post came across as implying) doesn't really make too much sense for Russia. Best strike when the iron is hot.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is big:

https://twitter.com/alexrossmusic/status/1497242538415046657

[jaichind]

 Kremlin said Kyiv had stopped responding after rejecting Moscow’s initial offer of a meeting in Minsk

[Silent Hunter]

https://twitter.com/Eurovision/status/1497243799889711104

Putin has overplayed his hand now guys.

All the UK got in 2003 was nil points.

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/Eurovision/status/1497243799889711104

So that’s the Champions League, Formula One and now Eurovision. In addition to the Council of Europe, on the more substantive side of things.

Doubt this will dissuade Putin, but hopefully some Russians will take the intended lesson about their country being pushed into pariah state status.

WE JUST HELD THE OLYMPICS IN A COUNTRY THAT DISAPPEARED A STAR TENNIS PLAYER FOR ALLEGING SHE WAS RAPED AND HAS CONCENTRATION CAMPS FOR MUSLIMS IN ITS FAR WEST PROVINCE, AND EVERYONE WENT.

I can add everything about Saudi Arabia if anyone wishes. War going on in a country, "oh yeah, we're going to ban you from a song contest, take that!", f#ck. I already think very little of Europeans when it comes to foreign policy affairs. The French and Germans - two most powerful states in continental Europe - effectively came out yesterday and admitted their militaries are useless in an intense conflict. Think about what that says about NATO capacity ex-U.S., and people wonder why states are taking advantage of the power vacuum.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/RepCori/status/1497023503043899399

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/RepCori/status/1497023503043899399

I support a primary challenge for sure and if that fails, endorse the GQP candidate.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/RepCori/status/1497023503043899399

Doesn't she support BDS ?