Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jojoju1998]

Apparently China is Ukraine’s largest investor. Second largest export partner. And largest import partner.


China doesn’t care what happens to Russia or Ukraine. Only their bottom line. Their Bottom line will be hurt if Putin continues his schemes.

And if China openly backs Russia, the Western world will cut off acccess For Chinese businessmen.

Russia and China have become important partners. They committed to a "no limits partnership" long ago. They have similar revanchist interests (Ukraine, Taiwan).

While true, it is interesting how tepid Chinese support has been so far.

They saw the same announcements from Putin as we have, they know he's a bit unhinged. China is never keen on loose cannons dictating its foreign policy.

China and Ukraine have had a productive economic partnership for almost 30 years. In fact, I would dare say that China is the bigger economic influence than Russia.  


China’s not going to risk their investments in Ukraine just so that Russia is happy.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

It's the clear reality and the truth at this point. Kiev is under siege, 1.5 days into the offensive, and Zelensky sued for peace publicly. Asking for an armistice with enemy troops on your land is not an action to take when winning, Finland still lost territory from the Winter War despite performing much better than expectations. I get that you're cheerleading for a side here but reality doesn't care about that.

Firstly, the capital being under direct threat in the second day of the invasion of a large country sounds impressive at first, very impressive, right up until you look at a map and notice where Kiev actually is. It is highly exposed to any aggressive push from the north and borderline indefensible from that direction as well.

Secondly, no one serious is saying that the Ukrainian army is winning. What has been noticed, and not just here and not just on twitter, is that they have held up a lot better than expected. People have also been surprised at the Russian attack plan with so many independent thrusts on so many different fronts, something that smacks of the sort of incompetence driven by excessive political interference in military decisions. It is still overwhelmingly likely that the Russian military 'wins' due to the substantial imbalance in the size of forces and also resources involved, but it is plainly not going to plan, and this is an important and relevant thing to note.

Finally, your sneering is unpleasant and reflects poorly on your character.

I'm aware of the geography and that Kiev is highly vulnerable to an attack from Belarus. However this should have also been obvious to the Ukrainian military who could have been preparing defenses in depth between the border and Kiev, which they either didn't do or did a very poor job. Whether it's impressive or not, Zelensky is now under threat himself and that's what probably forced him to ask for an armistice. It's definitely not at all comparable to the Winter War, which saw the Finns repel multiple Soviet attacks and keep the Soviets off their land for 3 months and had a 5-1 casualty ratio. I think there has been a moving of goalposts by the West where the Russians are expected to win instantly and anything short of that is a disappointment, despite the situation on the ground where Ukraine will likely still lose within a week.

We are all grateful and appreciative of the sagacious military advice you have offered Ukraine, which is based on decades of doctrinal study of Clausewitz, Jomini and other greats - thank you computer!

In all seriousness, this has to be one of the dumbest posts I've read on the forum in some time. Ukraine's physical geography is poorly suited for defensive wars - it's basically as flat as a pancake, perfect terrain for swift armor advances. It would be an unmitigated disaster for Ukraine to attempt to mount a defensive line in the middle of nowhere, which is why ferocious fighting is taking place inside of small cities and on natural defensive lines, like the Dnieper, while Ukraine gives ground elsewhere. To be blunt, insofar as Ukraine can win this war, it will be by baiting Russia into a costly, piecemeal assault on Kiev that is rushed and poorly planned while Ukraine slowly but surely entrenches the city, turning it into a slaughterhouse.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm aware of the geography and that Kiev is highly vulnerable to an attack from Belarus. However this should have also been obvious to the Ukrainian military who could have been preparing defenses in depth between the border and Kiev, which they either didn't do or did a very poor job. Whether it's impressive or not, Zelensky is now under threat himself and that's what probably forced him to ask for an armistice. It's definitely not at all comparable to the Winter War, which saw the Finns repel multiple Soviet attacks and keep the Soviets off their land for 3 months and had a 5-1 casualty ratio. I think there has been a moving of goalposts by the West where the Russians are expected to win instantly and anything short of that is a disappointment, despite the situation on the ground where Ukraine will likely still lose within a week.

If you were truly aware of the geography you might note that in between Kiev and the border is the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone and I'm not sure if the Ukrainian government or military would have been particularly keen to dig in and create trenches, redoubts and strong-points there for certain fairly obvious reasons. They could perhaps have done more further south, but the open geography would immediately make that difficult - there's not much point in creating strong defences that are easy simply wheel around and bypass.

In general, of course, you are not being honest here and I suspect there is little point in further engagement.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I'm aware of the geography and that Kiev is highly vulnerable to an attack from Belarus. However this should have also been obvious to the Ukrainian military who could have been preparing defenses in depth between the border and Kiev, which they either didn't do or did a very poor job. Whether it's impressive or not, Zelensky is now under threat himself and that's what probably forced him to ask for an armistice. It's definitely not at all comparable to the Winter War, which saw the Finns repel multiple Soviet attacks and keep the Soviets off their land for 3 months and had a 5-1 casualty ratio. I think there has been a moving of goalposts by the West where the Russians are expected to win instantly and anything short of that is a disappointment, despite the situation on the ground where Ukraine will likely still lose within a week.

If you were truly aware of the geography you might note that in between Kiev and the border is the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone and I'm not sure if the Ukrainian government or military would have been particularly keen to dig in and create trenches, redoubts and strong-points there for certain fairly obvious reasons. They could perhaps have done more further south, but the open geography would immediately make that difficult - there's not much point in creating strong defences that are easy simply wheel around and bypass.

In general, of course, you are not being honest here and I suspect there is little point in further engagement.

Apparently one reason for the increase in measured radiation around Pripyat is that heavy artillery and armor moved around the topsoil. Imagine what could happen if there was a bombardment of the area and serious fortifications being built - yikes!

[The Free North]

Here is the latest map on Wiki. Reports are Russians may have taken Kherson, albeit with heavy casualties. Unconfirmed though.

[KaiserDave]

https://mobile.twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1497240686961336327?ref_src=twsrc%...

[Sir Mohamed]

https://mobile.twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1497240686961336327?ref_src=twsrc%...

Go ahead! They already sanctioned Putin and his foreign minister directly. Biden needs to follow asap.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I have some skepticism that Germany expressing talk of cutting Moscow from SWIFT means all that much. The German business community could already have alternatives lined up that allow them to talk of cutting Moscow from SWIFT. Thus, there isn't the risk of them actually paying much higher prices for oil and gas.

[StateBoiler]

What is with this idealism from everyone here that a military agreement with the Russian Federation not related to nuclear arms control is worth the paper it's signed on? How delusional do you have to be to think they'd honor any sort of ceasefire/treaty?

Then war continues.

Russians are going to go until either Zelensky surrenders or they have removed Zelensky from power forcefully.

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1497225270310354949

What is Russia going to say?

"Oh, I accept your term of surrender"

That's how wars have worked since the beginning of time.

[Astatine]

Georgia's government has shown its true colors. After pretending to continue the Western path (although the ruling party's eminence grise is a billionaire who does a lot of business in Russia) which is crucial to win public support (~80 % support accession to NATO and EU), the government has announced it will not join sanctions against Russia, blamed the opposition for the 2008 War (they really have no other empty talking point) and provide liquidity to Georgia's branch of the VTB Bank that was hit by Russian sanctions.
The only Georgian representative who sided with Ukraine is the President, an office that was stripped of all its powers and that will be be elected by a council selected by government party cronies instead of popular vote from 2024 on.

Hundreds, if not thousands, of people demonstrated to support Russia yesterday, and this action will hopefully absolutely backfire against this goddamn insane Georgian Dream (more like Nightmare) gov't.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1497225270310354949

What is Russia going to say?

"Oh, I accept your term of surrender"

That's how wars have worked since the beginning of time.

Many wars, Possibly a majority, actually end when Bo when both sides effectively say OK that's enough let's end this before More blood is spilled because frankly we both paid enough. Even if the end resulting borders aren't antibellum.

 Unfortunately, I doubt that's the case here.

[jojoju1998]

Unconfirmed : But it seems as if Putin wants a military coup in Ukraine.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is Putin's long-term plan, right now? Does anyone have anything but a vague idea? He's pointed out what he doesn't like about the status quo, but what does he intend to do with Ukraine? Does Putin himself even know yet?

[sting in the rafters]

What is with this idealism from everyone here that a military agreement with the Russian Federation not related to nuclear arms control is worth the paper it's signed on? How delusional do you have to be to think they'd honor any sort of ceasefire/treaty?

Then war continues.

Russians are going to go until either Zelensky surrenders or they have removed Zelensky from power forcefully.

Yeah my point is that'll happen regardless of whatever talks occur. The die's been cast. We're at the point where anything less than capturing the Maidan is a failure for the Kremlin.

[StateBoiler]

A Ukrainian I follow on Twitter is claiming 2,800 Russian casualties. I am extremely skeptical and consider this number to be pulled out of thin air. Impressive PR operation all in all. CNN was mostly uncritically repeating the "800 dead Russians" claim last night.

The retired colonel doing their military analysis did not openly question it but said "that would be great if true".

Aggressors in a neutral conflict typically lose more than defenders. However, if the Russians are losing 5-to-1 in the casualty count, they've really made successful territorial gains while that is still the case. I don't really take that casualty count as kosher, it's not matching what's happening on the ground. There was a Ukrainian report of the Russians had 3000 dead which the Bild journalist saying they reported that was "come on, get serious", and then we hear 800 later.

[jojoju1998]

What is Putin's long-term plan, right now? Does anyone have anything but a vague idea? He's pointed out what he doesn't like about the status quo, but what does he intend to do with Ukraine? Does Putin himself even know yet?

He wants to turn Ukraine into a Vassal State, loyal to him and " Mother Russia ".

It's an extremely ideological bent.

[Omega21]

https://mobile.twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1497240686961336327?ref_src=twsrc%...

Go ahead! They already sanctioned Putin and his foreign minister directly. Biden needs to follow asap.

If Europe goes for it, absolutely no question Biden will as well. The US is much less dependent on trade with Russia compared to the EU, albeit you do also import some oil/gas as well.

All in all, this is a huge mistake for him. Most people I know who never really disliked him that much are on the same page now, that he's gone mad and that this is completely unacceptable. You can see that across the traditionally "moderately Putin "warm"" European right wing as well.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1497240686961336327?ref_src=twsrc%...

In Germany there has been a emerging media narrative - including major center-left publications like Süddeutsche Zeitung - that Olaf Scholz is being too soft on Russia.

That includes editorials like this one here: "Russia must be expelled from Swift - Why still hesitating? When the chit-chat about sanctions is meant to be taken serious no money can't flow to Russia anymore. Otherwise the West can save the tears and wait until Russian tanks are rolling across the next border."

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is Putin's long-term plan, right now? Does anyone have anything but a vague idea? He's pointed out what he doesn't like about the status quo, but what does he intend to do with Ukraine? Does Putin himself even know yet?

He wants to turn Ukraine into a Vassal State, loyal to him and " Mother Russia ".

It's an extremely ideological bent.

I mean stuff like, what happens with Zelensky, what precisely he intends to take from Ukraine (or even none at all from it), and those sort of specifics.

[MaxQue]

Unconfirmed : But it seems as if Putin wants a military coup in Ukraine.

I don't think a coup is likely at all, but it one happens, it won't be on the Ukraine side.

[StateBoiler]

What is with this idealism from everyone here that a military agreement with the Russian Federation not related to nuclear arms control is worth the paper it's signed on? How delusional do you have to be to think they'd honor any sort of ceasefire/treaty?

Then war continues.

Russians are going to go until either Zelensky surrenders or they have removed Zelensky from power forcefully.

Yeah my point is that'll happen regardless of whatever talks occur. The die's been cast. We're at the point where anything less than capturing the Maidan is a failure for the Kremlin.

The Russians are showing some restraint here. It's been commented on by military types they're not using their artillery much at all when Russian military strategy historically has relied on artillery a good amount, and there's still plenty of soldiers on the borders that have not invaded yet. So they're not trying to kill everyone a la say Grozny, but if told "f#ck you, we're going to die to the last man", the artillery is being held in reserve and could come in. That could be the threat to force Ukraine to the table.

We'll see what happens at Minsk. Russian ground forces are in Kiev and we have a day and a half until the American military intelligence prediction of when it would fall.

[pppolitics]

What is Putin's long-term plan, right now? Does anyone have anything but a vague idea? He's pointed out what he doesn't like about the status quo, but what does he intend to do with Ukraine? Does Putin himself even know yet?

He wants to put in a puppet government

[nicholas.slaydon]

What is Putin's long-term plan, right now? Does anyone have anything but a vague idea? He's pointed out what he doesn't like about the status quo, but what does he intend to do with Ukraine? Does Putin himself even know yet?

He wants to turn Ukraine into a Vassal State, loyal to him and " Mother Russia ".

It's an extremely ideological bent.

I mean stuff like, what happens with Zelensky, what precisely he intends to take from Ukraine (or even none at all from it), and those sort of specifics.

Well from what Putin was saying in his unhinged speech about how Ukraine is a fake country only created in 1917, and that how Ukraine has always been a historic part of "Russia", seems to say to me that he wants nothing short of full annexation.

[Boobs]

It's time to recognize that Putin is a madman - literally mentally ill. He senses his impending mortality and is trying to immortalize himself by recreating an empire. But he will destroy his nation and his people in his attempt.

The question is if anyone inside the Kremlin realize this, and if any of them will have the balls to save the world from nuclear war.