Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Nyvin]

The congressional map most likely will stay 9-5 if Republicans draw the map, but the mandates for the legislative districts could be really major.  

The two additional black majority state house seats in/around Bibb county are guaranteed pickups for Democrats, there's no way out of that.  Also the amount of wiggle room Republicans have in the Atlanta metro for both State House and Senate seats is minimal.  They're going to face losses in their majority in both chambers for sure.  

That together with further trends in Atlanta means the legislature could definitely be competitive real soon, if not 2024 then certainly in the next few cycles.

[Nyvin]

Actually looking into this more, the court order is saying the state can't remove any opportunity districts elsewhere, and GA-7 as currently drawn is plurality black at about 31%, and only about 29% white.  

So that really could be considered it's own minority opportunity district on it's own, and then the court order mandates a "new" black majority district made in the west Atlanta metro area. So if they can't eliminate GA-7 as a plurality black seat, the new map might actually have to be 8R-6D.  If they do make the map 9-5 with the five D seats all being black majority, then the court could use that provision to strike it down and draw their own map.

"The state cannot remedy the Section 2 violations described herein by eliminating minority
opportunity districts elsewhere in the plans."

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cJwiPASTQ8rnPZlUOKYHgqVlQU9V4z62/view



It's also very possible to leave GA-7 as is and draw four black majority district in the Atlanta metro.  

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6c26ad24-2989-4537-b8b2-c7c20f8424c7



Just some theorycrafting here.

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

Thank you for this, cause nobody seemed to understand when I said that GA-07 had to remain a Democratic seat given the text of the order. They could of course try, but that would de Facto be a punt to the master, cause it would fail the strict scrutiny hearing, similar to Alabama's 'remedial' map. The plaintiffs and the Judge aren't exactly going to say Okay to a map that creates one majority minority district to elect a African American rep, from a majority minority district that currently is electing a African American rep. It's a very similar approach to the "50% AA but Trump+1" districts that pop up from certain folks: technically possible but legally impossible.

I wouldn't be surprised if its borders do shift a bit though, just cause it makes things easier for GA-04 and 05.

Also, and this is the big one, unless they GOP can get a stay from the 11th, they have every incentive to play along exactly as far as the court orders them to. Cause failing in any way and letting a master map can very easily create additional Dem seats beyond the ordered districts. As many people have shown already, a compact master map probably creates a second Congressional seat that is winnable for Dems using the north Cobb/Fulton shifts. This gets even more scary for them in the state House, which will go to 92-88 Trump and 90-90 Warnock/Walker with the 5 ordered districts, under the minimum changes necessary.

[ProgressiveModerate]

SNIP

Thank you for this, cause nobody seemed to understand when I said that GA-07 had to remain a Democratic seat given the text of the order. They could of course try, but that would de Facto be a punt to the master, cause it would fail the strict scrutiny hearing, similar to Alabama's 'remedial' map. The plaintiffs and the Judge aren't exactly going to say Okay to a map that creates one majority minority district to elect a African American rep, from a majority minority district that currently is electing a African American rep. It's a very similar approach to the "50% AA but Trump+1" districts that pop up from certain folks: technically possible but legally impossible.

I wouldn't be surprised if its borders do shift a bit though, just cause it makes things easier for GA-04 and 05.

Also, and this is the big one, unless they GOP can get a stay from the 11th, they have every incentive to play along exactly as far as the court orders them to. Cause failing in any way and letting a master map can very easily create additional Dem seats beyond the ordered districts. As many people have shown already, a compact master map probably creates a second Congressional seat that is winnable for Dems using the north Cobb/Fulton shifts. This gets even more scary for them in the state House, which will go to 92-88 Trump and 90-90 Warnock/Walker with the 5 ordered districts, under the minimum changes necessary.

This might be a dumb question but can the GA GOP simultaneously comply with the lower court while also appealing and seeking a stay from the 11th?

[GAinDC]

SNIP

. This gets even more scary for them in the state House, which will go to 92-88 Trump and 90-90 Warnock/Walker with the 5 ordered districts, under the minimum changes necessary.

Wow, didn’t know the chamber was already that close

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

Thank you for this, cause nobody seemed to understand when I said that GA-07 had to remain a Democratic seat given the text of the order. They could of course try, but that would de Facto be a punt to the master, cause it would fail the strict scrutiny hearing, similar to Alabama's 'remedial' map. The plaintiffs and the Judge aren't exactly going to say Okay to a map that creates one majority minority district to elect a African American rep, from a majority minority district that currently is electing a African American rep. It's a very similar approach to the "50% AA but Trump+1" districts that pop up from certain folks: technically possible but legally impossible.

I wouldn't be surprised if its borders do shift a bit though, just cause it makes things easier for GA-04 and 05.

Also, and this is the big one, unless they GOP can get a stay from the 11th, they have every incentive to play along exactly as far as the court orders them to. Cause failing in any way and letting a master map can very easily create additional Dem seats beyond the ordered districts. As many people have shown already, a compact master map probably creates a second Congressional seat that is winnable for Dems using the north Cobb/Fulton shifts. This gets even more scary for them in the state House, which will go to 92-88 Trump and 90-90 Warnock/Walker with the 5 ordered districts, under the minimum changes necessary.

This might be a dumb question but can the GA GOP simultaneously comply with the lower court while also appealing and seeking a stay from the 11th?

Thats in theory what they could be doing right now, penciling in a special session, and could be filing for a Stay. But I haven't seen a filing in the 11th yet from any party. Perhaps they want to do things as late as possible to try and stall for Purcell, in which case action will start happening soon-ish. The holidays and the scheduled timetable in theory should make this appear fast if they want to try for the Stay, or else they run into the session and then the potential master.

Milligan taking place next door and in another lower court of the 11th certainly complicates things for the State Defense though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

SNIP

. This gets even more scary for them in the state House, which will go to 92-88 Trump and 90-90 Warnock/Walker with the 5 ordered districts, under the minimum changes necessary.

Wow, didn’t know the chamber was already that close

Ye generally in state leg chambers with a lot of seats, gerrymandering for a lopsided delegation is pretty tricky unless you're already riding on a geography advantage.

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

. This gets even more scary for them in the state House, which will go to 92-88 Trump and 90-90 Warnock/Walker with the 5 ordered districts, under the minimum changes necessary.

Wow, didn’t know the chamber was already that close

The chamber elected 79 Dems to 101 GOP in 2022. There was one high profile defection earlier this year, but that came from a uber-D urban Atlanta seat.

The Chamber itself is right now 97-83 Trump 2020. The GOP won 4 Biden seats. These were all intentional:

- HD-48 was made as GOP as possible to  successfully eliminate the north Fulton Dem incumbent, but it couldn't be made fully Trump leaning since they had to protect other incumbents and facilitate a gain in the next listed seat. It only flipped to them by 54-46.

- HD-53 is a Biden seat, but it was drawn as a snake to try and be as Republican as possible in North Fulton, while including parts of Buckhead. It was also drawn specifically to facilitate the return of Deborah Silcox who barely lost in 2020. But her comeback was only by 53-47.

- HD-99 is centered on Suwanee in Gwinnett. It was held by a member of the House Redistricting committee in 2022, but she retired, perhaps because she was unable to prevent the district from becoming more Dem-leaning. This is an area where the Dem electorate is growing, but it also struggles in off-years. 55-45 GOP in in 2022.

 - HD-154 in the SW was the successor to majority-AA HD-151, a consistently Dem seat that keeps electing the locally popular Gerald Greene, a former Dem who defected in 2010. But he's been serving for 40 years, is now 75, and nobody else can replicate his results.

The two additional Warnock runoff seats are HD-45 and 49, adjacent to each other in Northeast Cobb and North Fulton. Both were 51-49 for him, but also reelected their GOP incumbents by 59%. If Dems get the map changes in this opinion implemented, they will probably pour resources here.


The five districts that should seemingly be made into the 5 ordered majority-minority districts are: HD-64, HD-74, HD-117, HD-133, and HD-147. Most of these district's predecessors were in a larger group of seats that significantly shifting towards the Dems at the end of the decade, but the GOP redrew their lines in an attempt to turn back the clock. The one place they theoretically failed was HD-117, which still remained the tightest district in the chamber in 2022 by a 1.5% margin, despite the decrease in BVAP. This seat will probably flip in 2024 no matter the outcome of the order, but the other 4 will probably not without a redraw.

I will additionally note the Democrats probably have three frontline defenses: HD-105, HD-108, and HD-128. Any other unmentioned districts (including GOP HD-151) either have extreme RPV stabilizing their margins, or will see Dem margins go up in Presidential years. HD-128 was surprisingly left uncontested in 2022, and that failure may mean the GOP missed their chance at the seat. The required redraw of the Milledgeville region could take from 128, pushing the seat further east into the more Democratic Augusta. It something the plaintiffs fully intended when they sued the region. Those changes would push the seat off the battleground map.

[patzer]

I have come up with a definitely fair map. For the court-required four black majority districts, I chose to pair the urban heavily-black areas of the Atlanta area with rural areas to the south rather than with the whiter areas of Atlanta, as this makes it easier for the black candidate of choice to win the Democratic primary. Thanks to this, it made sense to eliminate the 3rd district in its current formation, to provide enough population for the four black Atlanta districts (the 5th, 4th, 13th, and new 3rd).

The whiter areas of the Atlanta area are paired together to make a new 10th district, which is in fact the bluest district on the map. The rest of the map was drawn prioritizing compactness and avoiding county splits when possible, getting rid of ugly aspects of the current map like the 8th snaking around Macon. By 2016-2020 average, there are seven Democratic-leaning districts and seven Republican-leaning ones, so I definitely see no way that this map could possibly be considered unfair, and something like this should certainly be considered when the map is being redrawn.



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[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1719758589877788890?t=B1W3WEdJ7tjaij6...

Status of state action. So the state legislative defendants,  as expected,  want to appeal for a hold from the 11th but have yet to do so.

[windjammer]

https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1719758589877788890?t=B1W3WEdJ7tjaij6...

Status of state action. So the state legislative defendants,  as expected,  want to appeal for a hold from the 11th but have yet to do so.

So this means redrawing the maps will proceed?

[Sol]

I have come up with a definitely fair map. For the court-required four black majority districts, I chose to pair the urban heavily-black areas of the Atlanta area with rural areas to the south rather than with the whiter areas of Atlanta, as this makes it easier for the black candidate of choice to win the Democratic primary. Thanks to this, it made sense to eliminate the 3rd district in its current formation, to provide enough population for the four black Atlanta districts (the 5th, 4th, 13th, and new 3rd).

The whiter areas of the Atlanta area are paired together to make a new 10th district, which is in fact the bluest district on the map. The rest of the map was drawn prioritizing compactness and avoiding county splits when possible, getting rid of ugly aspects of the current map like the 8th snaking around Macon. By 2016-2020 average, there are seven Democratic-leaning districts and seven Republican-leaning ones, so I definitely see no way that this map could possibly be considered unfair, and something like this should certainly be considered when the map is being redrawn.



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I don’t think there’s much risk of the white candidate of choice winning a Democratic primary of any hypothetical Black influence district in the Atlanta area. You can draw 4 districts in the Atlanta area with identical demographics and without drawing them into genuinely rural territory south of the city, much less cutting into suburban Macon or Columbus.

[Oryxslayer]

Status of state action. So the state legislative defendants,  as expected,  want to appeal for a hold from the 11th but have yet to do so.

So this means redrawing the maps will proceed?

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1719853126260228225?t=S9POBNugoUC2qH0rpB4Jow&am...

All state Plaintiffs for now are seemingly deciding not to appeal for now.  So we should for the moment expect maps. This puts a hold on the cases with additional Racial Gerrymandering claims. The continued existence of these though serves as a potential handbrake for activists if the legislature tries anything suspicious, and as a further threat that the legislature could want to get defused by following this order.

The next question is if the legislature follows the orders just as far as necessary, to deny any additional unnecessary side effects,  or produces a product that de facto punts to the master and could lead to unforseen Dem seats.  And if they do follow the order, will more legislative districts be changed outside of the targeted regions,  to potentially reinforce the tighter margins, albeit potentially risking the court rejecting their maps.

[Tintrlvr]

I have come up with a definitely fair map. For the court-required four black majority districts, I chose to pair the urban heavily-black areas of the Atlanta area with rural areas to the south rather than with the whiter areas of Atlanta, as this makes it easier for the black candidate of choice to win the Democratic primary. Thanks to this, it made sense to eliminate the 3rd district in its current formation, to provide enough population for the four black Atlanta districts (the 5th, 4th, 13th, and new 3rd).

The whiter areas of the Atlanta area are paired together to make a new 10th district, which is in fact the bluest district on the map. The rest of the map was drawn prioritizing compactness and avoiding county splits when possible, getting rid of ugly aspects of the current map like the 8th snaking around Macon. By 2016-2020 average, there are seven Democratic-leaning districts and seven Republican-leaning ones, so I definitely see no way that this map could possibly be considered unfair, and something like this should certainly be considered when the map is being redrawn.



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I don’t think there’s much risk of the white candidate of choice winning a Democratic primary of any hypothetical Black influence district in the Atlanta area. You can draw 4 districts in the Atlanta area with identical demographics and without drawing them into genuinely rural territory south of the city, much less cutting into suburban Macon or Columbus.

I'm pretty sure (maybe I am wrong) that this was intended as a joke way to draw a (mild, honestly) Democratic gerrymander but claim it isn't one and justify it on VRA grounds, poking fun at various attempts to justify Republican gerrymanders in other contexts.

[Oryxslayer]

I guess I'll mention DRA added GA 2022 election data today in preparation for the remap. But there are missing the crucial runoff data, which is when Warnock flipped legislative districts.

[windjammer]

With the LA ruling I suppose it is likely GA gets an another black Seat?

[Tintrlvr]

With the LA ruling I suppose it is likely GA gets an another black Seat?

There was a separate ruling in GA requiring the same, thus the flurry of posts here recently.

[Oryxslayer]

With the LA ruling I suppose it is likely GA gets an another black Seat?

There was a separate ruling in GA requiring the same, thus the flurry of posts here recently.

yes, but to add, the LA ruling has no or almost no bearing on the GA case. One is under the authority of the 5th, the other the 11th. The only connecting thread is that Milligan and subsequent Supreme Court orders means that both are forced into a position they did not expect to be in, and can't easily wiggle out of.

[windjammer]

With the LA ruling I suppose it is likely GA gets an another black Seat?

There was a separate ruling in GA requiring the same, thus the flurry of posts here recently.

yes, but to add, the LA ruling has no or almost no bearing on the GA case. One is under the authority of the 5th, the other the 11th. The only connecting thread is that Milligan and subsequent Supreme Court orders means that both are forced into a position they did not expect to be in, and can't easily wiggle out of.

The 5th is more conservative than the 11th right?

[MaxQue]

With the LA ruling I suppose it is likely GA gets an another black Seat?

There was a separate ruling in GA requiring the same, thus the flurry of posts here recently.

yes, but to add, the LA ruling has no or almost no bearing on the GA case. One is under the authority of the 5th, the other the 11th. The only connecting thread is that Milligan and subsequent Supreme Court orders means that both are forced into a position they did not expect to be in, and can't easily wiggle out of.

The 5th is more conservative than the 11th right?

Yes. Also, Georgia did not appeal the decision, for some reason.

[Stuart98]

With the LA ruling I suppose it is likely GA gets an another black Seat?

There was a separate ruling in GA requiring the same, thus the flurry of posts here recently.

yes, but to add, the LA ruling has no or almost no bearing on the GA case. One is under the authority of the 5th, the other the 11th. The only connecting thread is that Milligan and subsequent Supreme Court orders means that both are forced into a position they did not expect to be in, and can't easily wiggle out of.

The 5th is more conservative than the 11th right?

Yes. Also, Georgia did not appeal the decision, for some reason.

Probably saw the writing on the wall with all the other rulings lately. The legislature simply complying with the court order gives them a chance to contain the damage; they have a lot more to lose from a court imposed redraw than AL and LA did, if the courts redraw it all Biden probably wins a majority in all three maps.

[Oryxslayer]

Effortpost time:


The special session is called for ten days from now on November 29th to meet the deadline of December 8th.  It will likely be short based on past precedent, with maps already decided ahead of time.

The assumption right now is that the State GOP are actually complying with this order, unlike AL or LA, in light of the fact that there presently is no request for an emergency stay. This of course remains a big assumption, the actions could be a different delaying tactic or could create a product guaranteed to go to a master. But the basis for the assumption though is that Georgia Republicans fear letting a master have unchecked authority over Atlanta lines. A master would try for compactness first and could therefore easily ‘accidentally’ create more Democratic or competitive seats than ordered to.

Reminder, if they are to comply, then per the court’s order, existing majority-minority or access seats cannot be dismantled to create these new districts. That would de facto be a punt to the master. This applies not just to GA-07, but more importantly to the legislative remap. On all levels, Dems seats fall into one of the following categories: too diverse to be dismantled under these guidelines, majority-White but still diverse and necessary for packing Dem voters in key areas, or dominated by White Liberals but too far from the remapping areas to be made into the new access seats. Barring something too ugly to be accepted by the court under racial gerrymadering examination, it will be GOP-held seats transformed. But one wonders if the legislature will use this excuse to fortify their districts in non-specified areas and try to strengthen their electoral wall right in front of the finish line.

For all plaintiff maps proposed ahead, the following should be noted. Cooper’s maps – the colored ones – redrew the entire state to create appealing alternatives. Esselstyn’s maps – the green and grey ones – redrew as minimal as possible to limit disruptions. Therefore, his districts are uglier since he has less to work with. Additionally, the burdens of proof are different for the remapping process than in a courtroom. Plaintiffs must meet the 50% threshold (or prove beyond doubt that something lower works), meet Gingles, and qualify overall under the established ‘Senate Factors.’ The state meanwhile just has to avoid racial gerrymandering when drawing districts that beyond doubt can be proven to perform as access districts. The new congressional district for example could very likely not be 50% African American, since there are a lot of Hispanic residents around Marietta, but still would be found to perform under RPV.

State Senate

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Theoretically the least dangerous map for the GOP because the plaintiffs failed to win every one of their claims. With only two ordered districts, this would push the map to 31-25, or 30-26 under the 2022 runoff. That still would mean a majority GOP map even if the state lost the separate racial gerrymandering claims brought by the second (presently paused) lawsuit.

This is because the plaintiff parties both failed to convince the judge that an access seat was viable in the Eastern Black Belt. Both presented options (below) were deemed too bipolar between both the rural and urban electorates, and between the population concentration in cities at either end of the seat. A disheartening opinion, but one that will be accepted.





On the other hand, all four options below were accepted by the court as potential examples of remedial districts. Both identified SD17 as an obvious case (numbered 25 in Esselstyn), especially since it was racially gerrymandered in 2022 using Walton. The seat had previously trended into a majority-minority marginally Biden seat that the GOP only held by 2000 votes. They both then create a second seat in the west: Cooper using a renumbered SD16 and Clayton, Esselstyn using SD28 and South Fulton.

 

 

The judge in his order therefore targeted every South Suburb seat (10, 16, 17, 25, 28, 30, 34, 35, 43, and 44) as potential for a remap, not just one selection. Which offers some danger to the GOP if they let this go to a master. Hypothetically, a master could redraw the 2 new seats in west and center of the region using Clayton and Henry. But then also make SD35 more compact which would add a number of African American areas to SD28, pushing it unnecessarily (from the GOP’s perspective) in favor of Democrats.

The bigger issue for the GOP though is the specified south suburbs seats are all held by Senate Leadership. Brian Strickland, the most initially at risk in SD17, is Chair of the Judiciary Committee. He lives deep in Henry County, in a super-blue majority-AA McDonough precinct. Marty Harbin in SD16 is chair of the Oversight Committee. He lives just east of Tyrone in Fayette. Newman Senator Matt Brass, chairman of the powerful Rules Committee and in line for high leadership, is the SD28 incumbent. SD30, while technically just outside of the blast radius, is home to former Majority Leader Mike Dugan. The one exception to this is SD25’s incumbent Rick Williams, who just came to the Senate last year. However, he also has a long legislative career, just in the State House. He additionally is from Milledgeville, far from the remapping zone.

This would mean SD16 and SD17 are likely the ones to be redrawn, given the difficulty of drawing the incumbents into new seats. Especially since Matt Brass is likely the one with the biggest pull, and won't want a primary. The map below ensures that neither can challenge other powerful legislators in the primary, since they are placed inside the new access seats. Population has to be rotated through SD46 and Gwinnett cause of the changes made to SD17 in 2022 with Walton County.





Alternatively, if an incumbent is planning on relocating to the southern parts of their district, then it could be Rick Williams of 25 who gets axed. Of the two, it would probably be Strickland cause he had to know this was coming, and he would only have to move a few miles into southern Henry (like here) or Newton. Williams is a freshman, but he succeeded the Lt. Governor when he won the seat in 2022. That could save him when compared to the seemingly more important republicans to his north. Cutting him would however require tossing Milledgeville into Democratic SD26, and other changes to the belt seats to compensate for it.

State House

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Theoretically the most dangerous map for the GOP because of how many Biden and now Warnock seats they hold right now. Creating the five ordered access districts pushes the chamber into the margins. If they let it go to a master, then there will probably be more than five additional seats winnable for Democrats, a nightmare for the state GOP with the present state of the map. There is no way to get around the number five, because the small district size doesn’t allow for much creativity with gerrymandering. If there are to be unnecessary innovations to districts beyond the scope of the order, it will be here, in North Fulton and adjacent counties.

The plaintiffs did not win unilaterally on every district. Both groups of plaintiffs challenged the same group of four state house seats, with them diverging on the fifth target for a combined six seats between them. However, Alpha Phi Alpha represented by Cooper only won on a single district in South Atlanta. The Grant plaintiffs represented by Esselstyn won on four districts non-overlapping districts, for a combined total of five. In practice, this means little, since the legislature has no reason to follow the explicit lines of each master, just create a performing and sensible access seats in the specified regions. But it will matter when discussing specific circumstances of each region.


The district solely pursued by Esselstyn was HD64 in the Douglas region. The incumbent is Kimberly New, elected in 2022. Without allies, the freshman seems an easy cut. Two seats are basically required to go into Fulton to comply with the order, especially given incumbent residencies, which will require some unpacking in HD65. I personally like this arrangement though, cause HD66 understandably follows the highway and and there is only 1 uncompact seat rather than 2.





HD74 is the district Cooper won on but not Esselstyn. This is peculiar because the changes necessary to 74 have an unavoidable effect on HD117 in adjacent Henry County. Esselstyn’s HD117 is compact in Henry, when compared against Cooper’s, cause his HD74 is sprawling and uncompact. Esselstyn’s desire to minimize changes on surrounding districts hurts him here, because it forces uncompact changes to the few districts he can change. Either way, both districts must be redrawn now, so both master alternative maps offer value.



 

The incumbent in HD74 is Karen Mathiak, first elected to the chamber in 2016 for what was then HD73. She lives just north of Griffin and chairs the State Planning committee. There really is no alternative though to 74 getting remapped since Clayton must be unpacked, and hers is the only GOP seat bordering Clayton. Her prominence is not shared by Lauren Daniel in HD117. Daniel barely became a freshman in the closest GA legislative race of 2022. Despite the seat being drawn to stall a flip, Warnock would win the district and Democrats would be hypothetically targeting it next year even without a remap. Nobody should have qualms about drawing her out.

I estimate therefore that an attempt to save Mathiak will be made. HD74 will need to get shoved deep inside Clayton and other African American suburbs. This pushes the other Clayton seats out of the county and into Henry or Fayette. That will push HD117 out of Henry and necessitates Griffin to become the required access seat, like Cooper did in his map.

From here there are now two options: pair Mathiak with David Knight in HD134, or Beth Camp in HD135. both seem better to cut than Mathiak, but whom? Knight has been serving since 2004 but is presently a backbencher. Camp meanwhile is younger and just got elected in 2020. But she seems to be cultivated potential, already chairing the (lesser) Intragovernmental Coordination committee. Either way, the paired district more resembles the old HD74 more than its other predecessor. It is basically the same seat just with Hampton in Henry swapped for Pike County or the areas Southeast of Griffin. Mathiak would run against Camp in Pike, or Knight in the White corner of Griffin.






The press when describing the changes necessary south of Atlanta usually uses “two seats in the Macon region.” This obscures how Milledgeville is not Macon and the fate of the two seats is arguably different. However, given the court’s approval of Esselstyn’s map, it’s not too hard to see why one could think that Macon will need to get involved in the Milledgeville seat.



I will be very shocked if we see anything like Esselstyn’s map if the GOP is to draw a plan that complies with the court’s order in the region. The obvious reasons being the desire to maintain a hold on the wealthier Whiter parts of Macon and not give Democrats uncontested control over the Bibb County delegation in the State House. Additionally, Republican Dale Washburn lives in north Macon, and he would prefer not being unnecessarily axed. I think therefore it would be better to think of the seats separately, with one in Macon/Warner Robins, and one in Milledgeville.

HD147 is currently held by Bethany Ballard, first elected in 2022. The old HD147 trended towards the Democrats so hard that in 2020 Biden won the seat. It got radically redrawn but that didn’t stop the incumbent from retiring. So HD147 is the obvious cut, especially since every other Republican in the region has notable tenure. I think something like this using Twiggs to connect Warner Robins and Macon is more effective for the GOP than the straight north-south option seen in both master plans. This is because it allows for less Warner Robins and more of Democratic Macon to be used in the seat, more easily separates the GOP incumbents in the region, and allows them to retain more of their district cores. But both work.





It must be HD133 for the next access seat given the specification of Milledgeville in the order.  Incumbent Kenneth Vance just got elected in 2022, see SD25 for the seat’s former resident, so cutting him shouldn’t be too hard. The specification of 133 is absolutely something that the plaintiffs wanted to force on the state. Neighboring HD128 as currently drawn could have been won by the GOP in 2022 if they hadn’t failed to find a candidate. The fate of 128 becomes relevant if we eliminate the Macon option for 133. It all but forces 133 and the Milledgeville seat to look to the east and take African American areas from 128, forcing that seat to then be redrawn. From here on it is therefore beneficial to think of the two seats as paired.

If 133 is to be reoriented eastwards, all the Augusta seats will have to change via ripple effects. And to maintain the five existing African American access seats in the region while adding on one more presents really only two options: add Grovetown in Columbia to the grouping, or Dublin in Laurens. And it will be very hard to get away with the Dublin version, even if that is better for the GOP in HD128. Seven-term incumbent Matt Hatchett lives in Dublin, and he chairs Appropriations. The Dublin option is basically what Cooper tried:





And so, by eliminating alternatives based on incumbency, the Democrats find themselves likely to end up with a better HD128 then present. Diluting the district would invite in a master, to the north is 133, it can’t go south, and it can’t go west,. Which means HD128 has to go east into the Augusta region to get AA voters. That should always improve the performance of 128, even if it remains only marginally majority-minority. The version below is obviously very beneficial for Dems, but don’t count something like it out. Incumbent Mack Jackson is anti-Abortion, generally more moderate, and for some it wasn’t a surprise he failed to get an opponent in 2022.

Congress

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The one map most people care about comes last because there is less to say. The Court has ordered the creation of a majority-minority access district in the western suburbs. They have additionally spelled out that dismantling other access districts to meet the order will not be acceptable.

We also know the GOP would be fools to disobey either parts of order and try to delay, in effect punting to a master under the current arrangements. With Cooper having drawn two acceptable versions of the access seat, the court considered the evidence for such a seat overwhelming. Looking at his maps, there are roughly 550K people in Northern Cobb and Fulton not in an access seat. Their present partisan allegiances are roughly tied. It would not be hard for a master to nest a seat in the region though presently-sunk adjacent and Democratic areas like Sandy Springs or John’s Creek. That would mean two presently safe GOP seats become winnable for Dems, not just one.

 

We already know the general shape of the new seat. We also probably know the new Dem representative will be McBath. She finally can go to a district that she lives in, opening the Gwinnett GA07.

We know the changes to GA-13 could very well lead to David Scott retiring or losing a primary. The 78-year-old Congressman lives outside the present district in Atlanta and has had underwhelming primary results recently. Adding in a bunch of new territory opens the door for a challenger.

We also know the axed congressman won’t be Barry Loudermilk unless he is retiring. The new access seat may end up bearing the number of his former district, but it won’t be the successor to his seat.
 
The big question for congress therefore is what happens to the other Atlanta area GOP Representatives? One of them has to be cut, but who? Rich McCormick has the least tenure under his belt, has no ties to the legislative GOP, and is sitting in a district that was gerrymandered into existence. Removing McCormick is the ‘default’ option, as we can see below in a map that focuses on changing district cores the least.

 

McCormick however is the “right” type of congressman for the Georgia GOP right now, especially when compared to the other options. MTG is MTG obviously, and destroying her seat would be an attempt to quash two birds with one stone. It’s not like the state hasn’t carved up the Northwest before, see the map from 2006 to 2010. Clyde on the other hand aligned himself with the rebels of this congressional term, and lives far from the current district. Cutting him would be a form of retribution that MTG unintentionally avoided by cozying up to McCarthy. Both would in theory be better to axe politically, but whether the legislature actually can successfully do it through the remap remains an open question. There is always the chance that the primary does not go they way the legislature intends…

 

 

[Oryxslayer]

Georgia has appealed the court's decision, as they said they would. There is no request for an emergency stay or examination of the case, as the state additionally said it would. This is despite the fact that Georgia hypothetically would have had cover by the 8th's recent decision to attempt at a strategy change.

Five days until the Special Session, and not much longer after that until a Master gets ordered if there is no adequate remedy. Unless this is a new attempt at a delaying tactic, everything is still proceeding as expected. No public maps yet.


Also today, we had a ruling from the 11th that upheld the method of electing PSC members statewide. This is an instance of trial length and circumstantial evidence working against the minority plaintiffs who wanted districts, since one of the main parts of the ruling is that minority candidates are increasingly getting large shares of the vote and/or winning statewide.

[Oryxslayer]

Senate will supposedly begin releasing maps today. So we'll be able to see if the GOP has any intention of complying,  or is willing to risk it all with a master.

[Gass3268]

Senate will supposedly begin releasing maps today. So we'll be able to see if the GOP has any intention of complying,  or is willing to risk it all with a master.

https://twitter.com/redistrictnet/status/1729221323497554302?s=46