Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[brucejoel99]

Another problem for Russians.  Rasputitsa is coming up which means by late March the roads will be a lot worse which would be very bad for Russian mechanized forces. Russia has to wind up major operations in Eastern Ukraine in the next 3 weeks.

The Economist ran an article on rasputitsa back in the first week of February, which concluded that the mud would raise the difficulty of Russian advancement, but would not be enough to prevent a (then still theoretical) invasion.

That was before the slightly shoddy nature of some Russian tactics and equipment was shown on the battlefield though, so it definitely won’t help matters.

As with a lot of things, I wonder whether rasputitsa serves almost as much value as a morale tool as an actual impediment. If there’s only a three week window, that gives Ukraine a potential end-date to fight towards (good for morale), and puts more pressure on Moscow to make a decision about what can (and now can’t) be achieved in the next 3 weeks.

Emphasis on the bolded: I saw a pic earlier of an abandoned Russian tank in Ukraine, & what are supposed to be pieces of reactive armor on its exterior instead appear to be pieces of plywood. If that's janky, then presume that everything is.

[Meclazine for Israel]

What If....

Russia starts a War

https://youtu.be/HtR2kn6Luds

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/RantyToo/status/1498258214659530758

Let's go General Mud!

[Omega21]

"Sunshine" launcher now near Mariupol

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498255416203087872

Videos report Russian forces looting stores and leaving a note:

Russian walked along Verkhniy Rogachik (Kherson region)

 Eyewitnesses write that yesterday they left notes "Sorry. We were forced" and went towards Zaporozhye

.

[Logical]

If one is interested in the effect of weather on operations and logistics, I recommend reading Prit Buttar's excellent trilogy on the fight for Ukraine 1942-1944.

[Omega21]

BREAKING

Mass shelling of urban area of Kharkiv

I will not share Videos of casualties, but can confirm I've seen multiple people dressed as civilians laying on the streets.

https://twitter.com/olehbatkovych/status/1498255697460412417

[jaichind]

RUB continues to rally and is now around 100.  This does not seem to be the Russians who are most likely hoarding foreign currency to make sure that Russian companies can service foreign debt.  This feels like speculators that are gambling on peace talks going somewhere. I am skeptical they will win this gamble but they are welcome to make this bet.

[Omega21]

RUB continues to rally and is now around 100.  This does not seem to be the Russians who are most likely hoarding foreign currency to make sure that Russian companies can service foreign debt.  This feels like speculators that are gambling on peace talks going somewhere. I am skeptical they will win this gamble but they are welcome to make this bet.

Some forex traders make crypto look like a bond purchase lol

[jaichind]

RUB continues to rally and is now around 100.  This does not seem to be the Russians who are most likely hoarding foreign currency to make sure that Russian companies can service foreign debt.  This feels like speculators that are gambling on peace talks going somewhere. I am skeptical they will win this gamble but they are welcome to make this bet.

Some forex traders make crypto look like a bond purchase lol

Yeah.  Of course, there are fundamentals.  As I posited before.  The key question is "Will Russia be able to sell raw materials to the collective West and get paid for it?" Yes or No.  Right now it is Yes.  If it is Yes the problem for Russia is mostly a plumbing problem of getting the foreign currency in the hands of entities that needs it ASAP.  The SWIFT sanctions clearly hit Russia hard on how to do that.  But a plumbing problem is not the same as a lack of water problem.  The water is there.  How to route it is now the issue.  But that is potentially manageable.  The Iran sanctions, for example, hit the issue of having water itself.

[Aurelius]

BREAKING

Mass shelling of urban area of Kharkiv

I will not share Videos of casualties, but can confirm I've seen multiple people dressed as civilians laying on the streets.

https://twitter.com/olehbatkovych/status/1498255697460412417

uKrAiNiAnS aRe BrOtHeR pEoPlEs, wE wAnT tO pEaCeFuLlY wElCoMe tHeM iNtO mOtHeR rUsSiA

[Aurelius]

Vovochka turning Kharkiv into Grozny 2.0.

Have the batshlt crazy commenters on Karlin's blog who want to kill all Ukrainians taken control? Or the LDPR? Or some other group of crazy russkiye ultranationalists?

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1498254388409810944

[Middle-aged Europe]

^^ Hearts and minds!

[Omega21]

Vovochka turning Kharkiv into Grozny 2.0.

Have the batshlt crazy commenters on Karlin's blog who want to kill all Ukrainians taken control?

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1498254388409810944

It was obvious they were holding back much of their capabilities for the first 3 days. Now when it's clear that simply isn't working, I would assume the hands of the commanders have fully been untied.

[Aurelius]

BREAKING: US Treasury prohibits Americans from engaging in transactions with Russia's Central Bank, essentially freezing its assets currently held in the US.

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1498277900621336577

[Meclazine for Israel]

4 Corners Australia

Russia vs Russia

https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/

Latest analysis of Russia from Australia's top journalists in Russia.

[jaichind]

The Russians being able to still sell raw materials on the world markets for foreign currency and raising their interest rates to 20% creates an interesting economic dynamic in Russia.  Given the weaker RUB AND rising world energy prices, Russia is now getting a financial bonanza in RUB terms.  This will clearly strengthen the Russian finances which in turn can fund the 20% reference interest rate.

The higher interest rate clearly protects the middle and lower-middle-class savings from inflation while the massive increase in foreign import cost due to the fall of RUB will hit the upper-middle class and rich.  So the current situation is one of a de facto wealth tax on the rich to fund this war.  I hope Sanders and Warren are watching and approve.

[Logical]

Kharkiv is a Russophile city and if I remember correctly was the largest pro Russian city in the aftermath of Maidan. The Russians are killing and turning people that should nominally support them against.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-28/wielding-swift-against-russia-for-ukraine-invasion-is-a-big-risk

Bloomberg editorial argues that the SWIFT sanction carries a big risk.  Bloomberg's position often represents the Wall Street position.  What is not said is that cutting Russia from SWIFT will accelerate the creation of alternative financial arrangements in the world which are now going to be further outside the influence and control of Wall Street and by connection the collective West.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

"Sunshine" launcher now near Mariupol

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498255416203087872
Videos report Russian forces looting stores and leaving a note:

Russian walked along Verkhniy Rogachik (Kherson region)

 Eyewitnesses write that yesterday they left notes "Sorry. We were forced" and went towards Zaporozhye

.

Kinda hard to take this seriously with that music playing in the background lol

[AZdude]

I don't what kind of terms are being offered, but short of something terrible vassal status, I almost wish Ukraine would accept it.  They've shown how brave they are, and they've shown the Russian armed forces as being almost a complete joke.  But unless they know about some concrete action the West is going to take, I'm worried a whole bunch of civilians are going to start dying.

Seeing a Russian-speaking city like Kharkiv bombed like that makes me wonder what the tyrant has in store for Kyiv, not to mention West Ukraine.  Also, a lot of the other news today seems pretty grim - letting prisoners go to serve in the military, hyping the volunteer force and almost begging to join the EU don't scream confidence.  As much as the Russian casualty numbers have been hyped, you have to wonder just how high the good guys' losses have been.

Maybe in this case, discretion would be the better part of valor.  Anything to keep a Ukrainian nation around, keep working on building up and modernizing the armed forces, and then when the time comes, rip up any agreements and kick the Russians asses once and for all.  They certainly have no problems with deceit when it serves their purposes.

[Person Man]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-28/wielding-swift-against-russia-for-ukraine-invasion-is-a-big-risk

Bloomberg editorial argues that the SWIFT sanction carries a big risk.  Bloomberg's position often represents the Wall Street position.  What is not said is that cutting Russia from SWIFT will accelerate the creation of alternative financial arrangements in the world which are now going to be further outside the influence and control of Wall Street and by connection the collective West.

That just sounds Beta. What’s the point of the leverage if it wasn’t working?

[It’s so Joever]

We desperately need to get involved NOW.

[Person Man]

I don't what kind of terms are being offered, but short of something terrible vassal status, I almost wish Ukraine would accept it.  They've shown how brave they are, and they've shown the Russian armed forces as being almost a complete joke.  But unless they know about some concrete action the West is going to take, I'm worried a whole bunch of civilians are going to start dying.

Seeing a Russian-speaking city like Kharkiv bombed like that makes me wonder what the tyrant has in store for Kyiv, not to mention West Ukraine.  Also, a lot of the other news today seems pretty grim - letting prisoners go to serve in the military, hyping the volunteer force and almost begging to join the EU don't scream confidence.  As much as the Russian casualty numbers have been hyped, you have to wonder just how high the good guys' losses have been.

Maybe in this case, discretion would be the better part of valor.  Anything to keep a Ukrainian nation around, keep working on building up and modernizing the armed forces, and then when the time comes, rip up any agreements and kick the Russians asses once and for all.  They certainly have no problems with deceit when it serves their purposes.

Lies and empty threats is all that Putinists have offered.

[Torie]

If Putin, like a caged rabid animal, feels the need now to lash out and go for the mass destruction of Kyiv and Kharhiv, with it all instantly televised across the world explosion by explosion, I wonder if it will anneal the political will of the West to do what is necessary to "destroy" the Russian economy and degrade its ability to wage war,  irrespective of considerable cost to themselves and damage to their own economies. Living the good life is not about bread alone. Does the West agree, or is it all just about maximizing one's own wealth these days?

Russia needs to be marginalized and removed from the world economic system as much as possible. Purchasing raw materials from Russia is blood money. And for the moment, it does seem that the pathos of it all has already caused the West to go farther and faster than it had ever imagined to punish Putin.  If Putin really goes for the max here, it will be interesting as Russia segues into a an economic basket case just how much China is willing to bail it out as its favorite welfare case.

[Torrain]

We desperately need to get involved NOW.

My guy. Your country is providing equipment and military intelligence to Ukraine, and helped organise one of the most coordinated sanctions packages in history. That’s how the West intervenes.

Sending our planes, ships or troops would be the opening salvo in an East-West war and take us within inches of nuclear war. That’s why we’re running non-direct action, and that’s why I find this cheerleading so disturbing.