Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

What observations do you think there are to glean from this data specifically?

The battle of Bakhmut was very costly for the Russians where convicts and the Wagner Group made up of a good part of the attacking force and losses.  Since that battle it seems volunteers made up a larger part of the Russian force at the front and the losses as well

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italy-calls-ukraine-truce-peace-talks-with-putin-newspaper-2024-05-06/

"Italy calls for Ukraine truce, peace talks with Putin - newspaper"

Italy's Defence Minister said on Monday economic sanctions against Russia had failed and called on the West to try harder to negotiate a diplomatic solution with President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine.
Guido Crosetto told daily Il Messaggero that the West had wrongly believed its sanctions could stop Russia's aggression, but it had overestimated its economic influence in the world.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What observations do you think there are to glean from this data specifically?

The battle of Bakhmut was very costly for the Russians where convicts and the Wagner Group made up of a good part of the attacking force and losses.  Since that battle it seems volunteers made up a larger part of the Russian force at the front and the losses as well

Ok from what I know I guess I agree with that.

[jaichind]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-crimea-bridge-russia-land-routes-b2540140.html

'Satellite images show Russia no longer using Crimean bridge to supply troops in Ukraine"



if so I wonder if Ukraine will still use its limited resources to disable the Crimean bridge since there will be very small to no military impact in doing so.

[Open Source Intelligence]

ISW reporting Russia are considering switching sides in the Sudanese Civil War to support the Sudanese Armed Forces in exchange for a port on the Red Sea. This would be a joint Iranian-Russian goal to give them greater regional infuence.

[Storr]

"Who could have seen this coming? A Russian prisoner-recruit kills six fellow soldiers and flees after the Russian military bombed his mother in Kharkiv. The 57-year-old is still at large and armed with a silenced AK-12."

"Why he was sent to the [prison] colony is not specified. 161.ru claims that [Yuri] Galushko is a native of the Kharkov region, but “lived and served” in Russia for a long time, he has Russian citizenship."

"The channel, citing the words of his ex-wife, claims that the military man “became embittered” after his mother, living in Kharkov, came under Russian shelling and was injured and suffered a stroke.

Galushko is suspected of shooting six servicemen of a howitzer artillery battalion [belonging to the 10th    Tank Regiment] on May 4 and fleeing the crime scene,"

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1787574415682576399

[Woody]

From Russian telegram:

Ukrainians, are you watching the inauguration of Vladimir Putin?

That's right, look, your future president is speaking

https://t.me/russkiypatriot0/11581

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

"Who could have seen this coming? A Russian prisoner-recruit kills six fellow soldiers and flees after the Russian military bombed his mother in Kharkiv. The 57-year-old is still at large and armed with a silenced AK-12."

"Why he was sent to the [prison] colony is not specified. 161.ru claims that [Yuri] Galushko is a native of the Kharkov region, but “lived and served” in Russia for a long time, he has Russian citizenship."

"The channel, citing the words of his ex-wife, claims that the military man “became embittered” after his mother, living in Kharkov, came under Russian shelling and was injured and suffered a stroke.

Galushko is suspected of shooting six servicemen of a howitzer artillery battalion [belonging to the 10th    Tank Regiment] on May 4 and fleeing the crime scene,"

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1787574415682576399

Something is always a risk when recruiting from potentially hostile demographics.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Good listen on taking a long look at the war from its beginning, where the U.S. first overestimated and then underestimated Russia, and geopolitical ramifications from War on the Rocks (was recorded just before Congress passed the supplemental bill):

http://www.warontherocks.com/2024/05/ukraine-and-a-fractured-world/

I completely agree on the "fractured world" take at the end. The geopolitics of this war and how we've left the post-Cold War world for good is not really talked about outside of D.C. think tank circles in this country. I think the Israel-Gaza conflict shows in its own way we've also left the post-Cold War world.

Something I learned from this is Zelensky's justice minister has put forward a bill in the parliament to conscript convicts like Russia has.

[Hindsight was 2020]

It seems Russia’s attempts to breakthrough in the Donbas have slowed down due to lack of quality equipment and making everything infantry based which naturally is a slower moving offensive

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-06/russia-s-budget-is-getting-twice-as-much-oil-money-as-a-year-ago

"Russia’s Budget Is Getting Twice as Much Oil Money as a Year Ago"




To be fair this time last year was a low as far as Russian budget revenues from oil.  One way to look at this is the likely 2024 Russian budget deficit as a % of GDP and compare it to previous years.

2019    +1.8%
2020    -3.8%
2021     0.4%
2022    -2.1%
2023    -1.9%
2024    -1.7%  (average of various financial firm estimates)

Russia usually runs a tiny budget surplus had had to go into deficit because of COVID-19 and this current war.  The deficit seems to be slowing going down as a % of GDP

[Hindsight was 2020]

“Has the EU really just found €400B it could spend on defense?”

BRUSSELS — The EU's emergency bailout fund — created at the peak of the debt crisis — could be the answer to governments' prayers: a ready-made money pot it could invest in defense.
Powerful figures in the bloc are pushing for the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), worth €422 billion, to move beyond its original role rescuing drowning economies, according to five people with knowledge of the discussions.
It could instead take on the task of distributing cheap loans to buy weapons, one of them said.

Wow this could be a major shot in the arm for Europe’s ability to increase aid to Ukraine and their own defensive production
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-emergency-bailout-fund-defense-spending-investment-european-stability-mechanism/

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

“Has the EU really just found €400B it could spend on defense?”

BRUSSELS — The EU's emergency bailout fund — created at the peak of the debt crisis — could be the answer to governments' prayers: a ready-made money pot it could invest in defense.
Powerful figures in the bloc are pushing for the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), worth €422 billion, to move beyond its original role rescuing drowning economies, according to five people with knowledge of the discussions.
It could instead take on the task of distributing cheap loans to buy weapons, one of them said.

Wow this could be a major shot in the arm for Europe’s ability to increase aid to Ukraine and their own defensive production
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-emergency-bailout-fund-defense-spending-investment-european-stability-mechanism/

Perhaps this was the secret trap card Ukraine needed all along!

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1786915509788610761

At this rate Putin's Russia will have conquered all of Ukraine in only another couple decades, at the cost of only 10 or 20 million Russian casualties.

Wars usually don't go at consistent pace. Russians were fighting for individual streets in Stalingrad. Two years later they were at the gates of Berlin and Vienna.

Riding in trucks made in the USA. Which side is America supplying in this war?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Oryx now has their total count of visually documented Russian tank losses since the 22 invasion at 3,000 👀
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1

[Woody]

Ukrainians report mass assaults on the border of Kharkiv Oblast. Has Russia begun it's offensive (the buffer zone)?

https://deepstatemap.live/en#10/50.2443/36.3977

[Hnv1]

Ukrainians report mass assaults on the border of Kharkiv Oblast. Has Russia begun it's offensive (the buffer zone)?

https://deepstatemap.live/en#10/50.2443/36.3977

Yes. However, the ORBAT seems marginal. 2-3 divisions. This can hardly produce significant results

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1788875054761025719?t=YEnKBdavB7IwBFh...

[Hindsight was 2020]

Raid ain’t going well

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1788896965280870683

[Woody]

Yurii Butusov: Four border settlements captured (Strileche, Krasne, Pylne, Borysivka). Area of ​​the occupied territory is more than 30 square kilometers

At night, Russian troops with forces of up to 4-5 infantry battalions crossed the state border line and captured four border villages - Strileche, Krasne, Pylne, Borysivka. In other areas, Russian attacks were repulsed, the enemy suffered significant losses. Insignificant progress was also recorded in the Vovchansk district. The largest occupied settlement is Streleche.

This area under the border has long been a de facto gray zone, the line of defense was not deployed there, and therefore the enemy managed to create a bridgehead up to 10 km wide and up to 5 km deep on the territory of Ukraine without much hindrance. The total area of ​​the occupied territory is more than 30 square kilometers. It is about 40 km from Kharkiv.

Source: https://t.me/ButusovPlus

[Woody]

In the coming days there is probably going to be a heavy battle for Vovchansk.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Really amazing they’d waste armor like this for essentially a border raid over supporting the Donbas push
https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1788940862094741837?s=12

[Open Source Intelligence]

Really amazing they’d waste armor like this for essentially a border raid over supporting the Donbas push
https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1788940862094741837?s=12

It's stretching the Ukrainian forces thinner like I said previously.

Tatarigami_UA - who runs the Frontelligence Substack site:

Overnight, Russian infrantry, backed by armored vehicles, entered Kharkiv oblast from Belgorod area, using small tactical units. Frontelligence Insight had previously cautioned about this scenario. Here's what we know about it:

The capture of border villages like Strilecha, Krasne, Pylne, and Borysivka isn't unexpected. It's an anticipated maeuver to divert Ukrainian resources from the main Russian offensive in Donbas. Considering manpower shortages, Ukraine will be forced to redeploy some personnel.

...

Russians anticipate a significant social backlash, inducing panic and demands for resolution. This pressure aims to compel the redeployment  of units from critical areas of Russian advances in Donbas. Meanwhile, Russian forces deploy infantry units incapable of deep strikes.

The situation is expected to evolve, with Russian forces deploying more units to penetrate additional border areas or to reinforce initial successes. With our estimate of their force equivalent to two Russian corps, they can sustain this operation.

Thus far, the Russian forces have not breached the main Ukrainian defense. Given the time required for Ukrainian units to deploy to the area, it is premature to assess the overall success or failure of this incursion. We will continue to provide updates.

Rob Lee agrees, says it's designed to take units away from defending Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk.

If I'm Russian leadership considering Ukrainian manpower shortages, just play a game of 15-on-13 rugby along the frontline, find where they don't have men or their presence is light and attack the gainline on that day.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Really amazing they’d waste armor like this for essentially a border raid over supporting the Donbas push
https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1788940862094741837?s=12

It's stretching the Ukrainian forces thinner like I said previously.

Tatarigami_UA - who runs the Frontelligence Substack site:

Overnight, Russian infrantry, backed by armored vehicles, entered Kharkiv oblast from Belgorod area, using small tactical units. Frontelligence Insight had previously cautioned about this scenario. Here's what we know about it:

The capture of border villages like Strilecha, Krasne, Pylne, and Borysivka isn't unexpected. It's an anticipated maeuver to divert Ukrainian resources from the main Russian offensive in Donbas. Considering manpower shortages, Ukraine will be forced to redeploy some personnel.

...

Russians anticipate a significant social backlash, inducing panic and demands for resolution. This pressure aims to compel the redeployment  of units from critical areas of Russian advances in Donbas. Meanwhile, Russian forces deploy infantry units incapable of deep strikes.

The situation is expected to evolve, with Russian forces deploying more units to penetrate additional border areas or to reinforce initial successes. With our estimate of their force equivalent to two Russian corps, they can sustain this operation.

Thus far, the Russian forces have not breached the main Ukrainian defense. Given the time required for Ukrainian units to deploy to the area, it is premature to assess the overall success or failure of this incursion. We will continue to provide updates.

Rob Lee agrees, says it's designed to take units away from defending Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk.

If I'm Russian leadership considering Ukrainian manpower shortages, just play a game of 15-on-13 rugby along the frontline, find where they don't have men or their presence is light and attack the gainline on that day.

Yeah I know this is there thinking but it could just as easily bite them in the ass as it’s wasting equipment on fortified areas when they are facing stock depletion issues by next year

[Open Source Intelligence]

Really amazing they’d waste armor like this for essentially a border raid over supporting the Donbas push
https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1788940862094741837?s=12

It's stretching the Ukrainian forces thinner like I said previously.

Tatarigami_UA - who runs the Frontelligence Substack site:

Overnight, Russian infrantry, backed by armored vehicles, entered Kharkiv oblast from Belgorod area, using small tactical units. Frontelligence Insight had previously cautioned about this scenario. Here's what we know about it:

The capture of border villages like Strilecha, Krasne, Pylne, and Borysivka isn't unexpected. It's an anticipated maeuver to divert Ukrainian resources from the main Russian offensive in Donbas. Considering manpower shortages, Ukraine will be forced to redeploy some personnel.

...

Russians anticipate a significant social backlash, inducing panic and demands for resolution. This pressure aims to compel the redeployment  of units from critical areas of Russian advances in Donbas. Meanwhile, Russian forces deploy infantry units incapable of deep strikes.

The situation is expected to evolve, with Russian forces deploying more units to penetrate additional border areas or to reinforce initial successes. With our estimate of their force equivalent to two Russian corps, they can sustain this operation.

Thus far, the Russian forces have not breached the main Ukrainian defense. Given the time required for Ukrainian units to deploy to the area, it is premature to assess the overall success or failure of this incursion. We will continue to provide updates.

Rob Lee agrees, says it's designed to take units away from defending Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk.

If I'm Russian leadership considering Ukrainian manpower shortages, just play a game of 15-on-13 rugby along the frontline, find where they don't have men or their presence is light and attack the gainline on that day.

Yeah I know this is there thinking but it could just as easily bite them in the ass as it’s wasting equipment on fortified areas when they are facing stock depletion issues by next year

One of his posts I did not copy is these areas are not fortified because the border is a gray zone. The fortifications are further inland.