2020 Poll Hype Thread

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Are we so sure that they were referencing the ABC/WaPo poll?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Are we so sure that they were referencing the ABC/WaPo poll?

What I was saying (not sure about Ljube) was that I'm not certain that the ABC/WaPo poll was the one to which Wasserman was referring. 

[wbrocks67]

Are we so sure that they were referencing the ABC/WaPo poll?

I don't think many of us think that was it, since it's not that much different than what we've been seeing recently and from ABC/Wapo last 2 polls

[Hope For A New Era]

I expect a strong Biden swing in De Soto and Pearl counties.

De Soto...no. From someone who lived there, no. The swing to Biden will be across the border in Germantown.

Pearl County doesn't exist?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I expect a strong Biden swing in De Soto and Pearl counties.

De Soto...no. From someone who lived there, no. The swing to Biden will be across the border in Germantown.

Pearl County doesn't exist?

Think he meant Pearl River County -- one of my favorite county names Nationwide. 

[7,052,770]

I expect a strong Biden swing in De Soto and Pearl counties.

De Soto...no. From someone who lived there, no. The swing to Biden will be across the border in Germantown.

Agreed. I didn't really know how to word this politely, but the more well-to-do Memphis suburbans tend to live in the suburbs that are in Tennessee, not the ones in Mississippi. I don't expect a very big swing in DeSoto County.

[7,052,770]

I expect a strong Biden swing in De Soto and Pearl counties.

De Soto...no. From someone who lived there, no. The swing to Biden will be across the border in Germantown.

Pearl County doesn't exist?

Think he meant Pearl River County -- one of my favorite county names Nationwide. 

Pearl River is an extremely Republican county. Biden will do well to hold Trump under 80% there.

Maybe he meant Rankin, where the city of Pearl is? Although I expect the Biden swing in the Jackson area to be more in Madison (the city and to some extent the county), and actually in the Jackson city limits, rather than Rankin. Similar situation to DeSoto.

[DrScholl]

It's worth noting that Cindy Hyde-Smith performed around 5% worse than Trump in DeSoto County in the special election. Technically if there are swings anywhere in Mississippi, DeSoto County would be one of the places that swung.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

I'm ready.

[Buzz]

I’m hoping we get some stupid Florida polls just so Trump can get cheaper on Predictit

[Turbo Flame]

This ought to be good.

[Torrain]

Come on Wasserman, where's that shocking, defcon 1 poll you were hinting about on twitter last night?

And what kind of poll are we talking about? A high quality poll showing Biden up 2 in SC? A solid TX lead for the Dems? Jorgensen leading in WY (I kid)? Just another double digit Biden lead (now that's a sentence I never thought I'd type)?

The suspense is killing me.

[republican1993]

I bet it was the iowa poll that showed a tie - such a heart wrenching poll us republicans really did not want to see!! LOL so unexpected

[It’s so Joever]

Just be patient.
By tomorrow night, we will probably be able to infer what he was talking about.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I expect a strong Biden swing in De Soto and Pearl counties.

De Soto...no. From someone who lived there, no. The swing to Biden will be across the border in Germantown.

Pearl County doesn't exist?

Think he meant Pearl River County -- one of my favorite county names Nationwide. 

Pearl River is an extremely Republican county. Biden will do well to hold Trump under 80% there.

Maybe he meant Rankin, where the city of Pearl is? Although I expect the Biden swing in the Jackson area to be more in Madison (the city and to some extent the county), and actually in the Jackson city limits, rather than Rankin. Similar situation to DeSoto.

Yeah, I meant Rankin County. Trump being reduced to 70% or less in the county would constitute a strong swing.

[woodley park]

When I saw that Amandi tweet I immediately thought of this WaPo article, which shows a revolt against Trump in the Villages of all places.

if Trump is getting drubbed in a conservative bastion, what does that mean for his chances statewide?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-senior-warning-sign-for-trump-go-biden-cry-at-villages/2020/10/11/c0d5d114-0bb8-11eb-b404-8d1e675ec701_story.html

A senior warning sign for Trump: ‘Go Biden’ cry at Villages

THE VILLAGES, Fla. — Sara Branscome’s golf cart whizzed down the smooth asphalt path that winds through The Villages, the nation’s largest retirement community, an expanse of beautiful homes, shops and entertainment venues that bills itself as “Florida’s Friendliest Hometown.”

Branscome’s cart was festooned with two American flags that flapped in the warm afternoon breeze. A line of oncoming carts bedecked with balloons and patriotic streamers chugged past while honking. Branscome jabbed her left foot on the horn pedal, then gave a thumbs-up.

“This gets you rejuvenated and ready for the next month or so, so we can do this and win. It gives you hope,” the 60-year-old retiree said.

Then she let out a whoop and two surprising words: “Go Biden!”

It’s not a cry that might be expected to resound in The Villages, and it’s certainly not one that is encouraging to President Donald Trump. Older voters helped propel him to the White House — the Pew Research Center estimates Trump led among voters 65 and older by 9 percentage points in 2016 — and his campaign hoped they would be a bulwark to cement a second term.

The Villages, where the median age is 66, is built on the American dream of a golden retirement. “We’ve created the backdrop of possibilities for you to write the next chapter in your story,” its website says.

Retirees can enjoy everything from golf to seminars on Mark Twain to drinking a cold beverage in the town square while listening to a “jamgrass” band (progressive bluegrass in the vein of Phish).

Politically, it long has been considered a conservative redoubt, so entrenched that it’s a must-stop for any national or statewide Republican running for office. One clear measure of its importance: Vice President Mike Pence’ came for a visit on Saturday.

Last fall, Trump picked The Villages to promote his support for Medicare and its private insurance option.

But on Wednesday, the scene told a markedly different story. An armada of as many as 500 golf carts gathered at the Sea Breeze Recreation Center to caravan to the nearby elections office, so folks could drop off ballots for Biden.

As each cart rolled into the parking lot and slid a ballot into a locked box under the watchful eye of elections supervisors, dozens lined the sidewalk, cheering and clapping every time a vote was cast.

[Tintrlvr]

I expect a strong Biden swing in De Soto and Pearl counties.

De Soto...no. From someone who lived there, no. The swing to Biden will be across the border in Germantown.

Agreed. I didn't really know how to word this politely, but the more well-to-do Memphis suburbans tend to live in the suburbs that are in Tennessee, not the ones in Mississippi. I don't expect a very big swing in DeSoto County.

Long-term demographic trends in De Soto inevitably mean improvement for the Democrats, though. Which could be especially pronounced if black turnout is higher and lower income white turnout is lower than in 2016 (both very plausible).

[Tartarus Sauce]

Come on already, drop the poll!

[Gass3268]

NYT/Siena has announced more polls for this week:

- Michigan and Wisconsin tomorrow at 1 PM ET
- Alaska, North Carolina, and South Carolina later in the week

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1315454974843932672

Prepare yourselves

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1315454974843932672

Prepare yourselves

Trump could be up by 5 or Biden could be up by 10. It doesn't matter, it will be worthless.

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1315454974843932672

Prepare yourselves

Inject in my veins.  Anyways, I think it will have Biden up 49-47.

[Torrain]

NYT/Siena has announced more polls for this week:

- Michigan and Wisconsin tomorrow at 1 PM ET
- Alaska, North Carolina, and South Carolina later in the week

Legitimately, this is all I’ve been waiting for this week.

[redjohn]

NYT/Siena has announced more polls for this week:

- Michigan and Wisconsin tomorrow at 1 PM ET
- Alaska, North Carolina, and South Carolina later in the week

Previous NYT/Siena poll of MI (from June) had Biden 47%, Trump 36%. Their most recent WI poll (mid-September) had Biden 48%, Trump 43%. Hoping for far fewer undecideds in both.

[ProgressiveModerate]

NYT/Siena has announced more polls for this week:

- Michigan and Wisconsin tomorrow at 1 PM ET
- Alaska, North Carolina, and South Carolina later in the week

Previous NYT/Siena poll of MI (from June) had Biden 47%, Trump 36%. Their most recent WI poll (mid-September) had Biden 48%, Trump 43%. Hoping for far fewer undecideds in both.

For some reason, all the NYT polls this cycle have had an annoyingly high number of undecides, and that will likely be the case in these new polls too