2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Alben Barkley]

Not sure if it’s been noted yet or not, but Deer Lodge and Silver Bow, MT will continue their Democratic streak.

[Alben Barkley]

So once again WI has voted to the right of MI and likely PA once all the votes have been counted.

I guess the conventional wisdom about that was right all along.

[Alben Barkley]

This thread explains pretty well why Trump probably can’t win AZ:

https://twitter.com/djquinlan/status/1324428554403110913?s=20

[Alben Barkley]

Secret Service and FAA know who the next POTUS is:

https://twitter.com/SenWhitehouse/status/1324431035606700033?s=20

[Alben Barkley]

Oh yeah.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324446661800853519?s=20

[Alben Barkley]

Biden becomes the first candidate to get 2 million votes in Massachusetts history. This was almost guaranteed to happen because Clinton got 1.995m.

Also first to get over 80% in Suffolk County since 1964.

[Alben Barkley]

Judas Van Drew winning is probably the single most disappointing/infuriating result of the entire election. Against a Kennedy, too. MillennialModerate will REALLY be in shambles if that happens AND Georgia goes for Joe though.

[Alben Barkley]

This whole thread is just incredible...

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1324445099430940673?s=20

DMP was in tears during the call.

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1324445867663908870?s=20

I'm not sure about generally blaming the "liberal wing" of the party, but you have to admit their branding is God-awful. Progressives talk about how popular their ideas are, but progressives are often the ones that come up with these awful catchphrases. "Defund the police" is a guaranteed vote-loser, even if police reform is popular. Calling themselves "Democratic socialists" is a vote-loser, even if progressivism can be popular. I don't even understand that one, seeing as how they are social democrats at their leftmost.

I've been saying it for a while, but "ACAB" is such a failure of messaging. The sentiment behind it (even good people who are cops are part of an inherently racist system in need of reforming) is reasonable, but the phrase itself is just awful.

In fairness to the left-wing of the party, you don't really see many Democratic candidates chanting ACAB. If a group of protestors is doing that, there's really nothing you can do to stop it.

I agree though, there was a big messaging failure on police reform, even if the issue unquestionably favored Democrats.

The left completely blew all the post-Floyd momentum on criminal justice/police brutality. I was stunned at all the people who were ready to listen on that stuff but then all they ended up hearing was "abolish the police"  and people defending looters and arsonists. The cultural left completely wasted on opportunity to get a majority of people on board with sensible reforms.

Sadly agree. There was an opportunity for a real conversation and change. Instead, BLM went less MLK and more Malcolm X to their own detriment.

[Alben Barkley]

Judas Van Drew winning is probably the single most disappointing/infuriating result of the entire election. Against a Kennedy, too. MillennialModerate will REALLY be in shambles if that happens AND Georgia goes for Joe though.

Why do you believe Van Drew won his race?  He's up 4 points with only 75% of the vote counted, and we already know how VBMs shift the race.

Hmm, maybe she can still win. I heard otherwise, hopefully I just jumped the gun.

[Alben Barkley]

Coconin is fairly blue right?

Considerably so, hasn't gone R since 1988.

[Alben Barkley]

Ugh, all this whining from Spanberger. Why are so many people in the Democratic caucus so lame?

She's not wrong.

[Alben Barkley]

Arizona kinda reminds me of 1992 Georgia. They called GA for Clinton almost instantly and were right even though it ended up being one of the closest states of the election.

[Alben Barkley]

So there's about 550,000 left in Pennsylvania which should seal the deal for Biden if they continue to favour him by the huge margins they have so far. Just one snag though:

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1324423231210721282

If Biden wins 80% of the remaining urban and suburban votes he'll be statistically tied (by my estimate down by just under 10k votes), but it appears the vast remainder of those votes are in rural counties. If the count estimates are right then these include Greene County (79% reporting, currently 80% for Trump, went 68% for Trump in 2016), Tioga County (79% reporting, 81% for Trump, 74% Trump in 2016) and Crawford County (72% reporting, 79% for Trump, 66% Trump in 2016).

So if Biden gets it close and the rural late counts go like Erie did (1-3/1-4 margins for Biden) then Biden has it in the bag. The only snag is that Erie was extremely narrow in both elections, whereas most of these counties went massively for Trump even in 2016. If Biden can at least tie or win on the back of his mail in overperformance then he's safe, but if they come in any worse than 50-50 then Trump could actually narrowly win Pennsylvania. It all comes down to whether mail/late votes in heavily red counties went for Biden or not, again assuming the tweet's numbers are accurate.

Even the rural mail vote in PA has been favoring Biden. The difference between mail and in-person there was THAT lopsided.

[Alben Barkley]

It's absurd to blame "socialism" for Biden's (and the Democrats') failures among Latinos.  If Latinos were uniquely averse to "socialism", they wouldn't have overwhelmingly voted for Bernie in the primary.

The reason Biden failed among Latinos is that he made almost no effort to appeal to Latinos in either his presentation or policy focus.  Choosing Harris as a running mate was a huge mistake in this sense.  Say what you will about Tim Kaine's other weaknesses, but at least he spoke fluent Spanish and would frequent give speeches on the campaign trail in Spanish.

Moreover, this biggest moral crimes committed by the Trump administration throughout the term were on immigration.  Yet Biden almost entirely ignored this issue in favor of a focus on covid and BLM issues.  How can the communities most personally affected by Trump's immigration atrocities fail to notice this?

Yeah, I know it's trendy for everyone to absolutely hate Tim Kaine and call him the worst VP pick ever, but I wonder if the latino result in this election helps vindicate the Kaine pick somewhat.  You may have thought it was goofy, but Kaine made a real effort to reach out to latinos.  Kaine was out there in AZ/FL giving speeches entirely in fluent spanish.

I wonder if maybe an actual Latino like Castro would have been better though. Although who knows? With how deep Cuban Floridians seem to think things through, his name alone might have scared them off.

[Alben Barkley]

Anyways, if these losers are looking for someone outside of themselves to blame for their electoral performance, why don't they blame Robby Mook? Have no idea how they gave that clown the Majority PAC after 2016's unmitigated embarrassment.

As I’ve said before, I think Hillary’s campaign has been at least somewhat vindicated by the closeness of this election. Despite everything seeming to favor Biden more, despite him correcting basically everything her campaign was criticized for, he still only did slightly better. It’s enough, sure, but it’s not nearly as huge an improvement as you might expect. Pretty clear now that it’s less that Hillary was a bad candidate with a bad campaign and more that Trump just is not easy to beat due to how much he fires up WWC rural voters.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1324455639679160321

So is that it then? Is it all over?

[Alben Barkley]

Trump will still eek this out in my opinion.

Great, now I KNOW he’s going to lose just like he lost Michigan and so did John James.

[Alben Barkley]

Biden just netted ~1,700 votes as the Crawford County AVs came in. Trump is leading in the county overall, 71-27. That's the reason you really can't depend on the absentee ballots in rural Pennsylvania to be all that favorable, relatively speaking, to Trump.  

According to Kornacki, Biden has actually been outright winning the mail rural vote in much of PA. Not by as much as the suburbs/cities, but still. The state had a MASSIVE difference in which party voted by mail vs. in-person, seemingly more than perhaps any other state. There were signs of that early on from the registrations.

[Alben Barkley]

AZ SoS says late ballot drop offs trend heavily D.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1324474674521219073?s=21

Also I’m hearing AP and Fox calls of GA and NV are possibly imminent.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1324474674521219073?s=21

Also I’m hearing AP and Fox calls of GA and NV are possibly imminent.

Curious where that's from?

Twitter and PredictIt people, could be BS.

[Alben Barkley]

I don't like Ivanka but it's clear that she the least crazy person in the immediate Trump family. She's the only one out of her dad and brothers that has not tweeted about phantom "voter fraud".

Tiffany’s so sane you forgot she exists, just like her dad.

[Alben Barkley]

I don't see Fox how could call Nevada at this point if they didn't do it earlier. Next vote drop isn't until 9 am tomorrow so maybe then but that would kind of a weird thing to do.

If they can call GA at the same time, Biden wins even without AZ so their possibly erroneous call won’t matter.

[Alben Barkley]

Fox is dumfounded that Biden could get more votes out of Philly than Obama. Only explanation possible must be fraud.

Never mind that this is the highest turnout election since 1896 LOL

[Alben Barkley]

Trump will win imo.

Can you briefly stop posting or something? It is really annoying. Saying Trump is going to win 10 times in slightly different forms gets tedious.

Trump will win GA AZ. SC rules on PA.

Funny thing, when CA and NY are finally all in, Biden will have a larger share of the vote then Reagan in 80.
And that was allegedly a mandate that hasn’t ended 40 years later.

Biden didn’t win the PV by 10 points

He only had that margin because Anderson took votes that mostly likely would have gone to Carter otherwise.