2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[wbrocks67]

I think more than 100k+ are out in Philly. 100k breaking like 90-10 would end up with Biden at literally just about Hillary's vote *total* in 2016. There's no way turnout was static with 2016, give or take a few more votes for Trump

I wonder if 85-90k left to count once again does not include any that they have counted already but not reported

[wbrocks67]

Erie County
Trump: 49.5
Biden: 49.1

Are these absolutely final results?

5k mail left

Who said 5?

[Non Swing Voter]

Philadephia: 85,000-90,000 left

I really don't understand these numbers with what is being uploaded to, say the NYT results. Or is that everyone's confusion. Are they just not loading results but saying that they've counted them?

NYT might just be a little delayed.  We have to use one source for apples to apples comparisons.  

[Alben Barkley]

It's absurd to blame "socialism" for Biden's (and the Democrats') failures among Latinos.  If Latinos were uniquely averse to "socialism", they wouldn't have overwhelmingly voted for Bernie in the primary.

The reason Biden failed among Latinos is that he made almost no effort to appeal to Latinos in either his presentation or policy focus.  Choosing Harris as a running mate was a huge mistake in this sense.  Say what you will about Tim Kaine's other weaknesses, but at least he spoke fluent Spanish and would frequent give speeches on the campaign trail in Spanish.

Moreover, this biggest moral crimes committed by the Trump administration throughout the term were on immigration.  Yet Biden almost entirely ignored this issue in favor of a focus on covid and BLM issues.  How can the communities most personally affected by Trump's immigration atrocities fail to notice this?

Yeah, I know it's trendy for everyone to absolutely hate Tim Kaine and call him the worst VP pick ever, but I wonder if the latino result in this election helps vindicate the Kaine pick somewhat.  You may have thought it was goofy, but Kaine made a real effort to reach out to latinos.  Kaine was out there in AZ/FL giving speeches entirely in fluent spanish.

I wonder if maybe an actual Latino like Castro would have been better though. Although who knows? With how deep Cuban Floridians seem to think things through, his name alone might have scared them off.

[Dr. Arch]

I think more than 100k+ are out in Philly. 100k breaking like 90-10 would end up with Biden at literally just about Hillary's vote *total* in 2016. There's no way turnout was static with 2016, give or take a few more votes for Trump

I wonder if 85-90k left to count once again does not include any that they have counted already but not reported

Yes. I believe it's been stated several times that Philly is not exactly updating as they process.

[BudgieForce]

I will say that I don't the the left hurt Biden nationally(Florida is a different story). I don't know how high youth turnout is going to be this year, but it has to be up from 2016. The fact that Bernie, Warren and AOC got behind Biden relatively quickly probably really helped him in the long run.

[Badger]

It's absurd to blame "socialism" for Biden's (and the Democrats') failures among Latinos.  If Latinos were uniquely averse to "socialism", they wouldn't have overwhelmingly voted for Bernie in the primary.

The reason Biden failed among Latinos is that he made almost no effort to appeal to Latinos in either his presentation or policy focus.  Choosing Harris as a running mate was a huge mistake in this sense.  Say what you will about Tim Kaine's other weaknesses, but at least he spoke fluent Spanish and would frequent give speeches on the campaign trail in Spanish.

Moreover, this biggest moral crimes committed by the Trump administration throughout the term were on immigration.  Yet Biden almost entirely ignored this issue in favor of a focus on covid and BLM issues.  How can the communities most personally affected by Trump's immigration atrocities fail to notice this?

Yeah, I know it's trendy for everyone to absolutely hate Tim Kaine and call him the worst VP pick ever, but I wonder if the latino result in this election helps vindicate the Kaine pick somewhat.  You may have thought it was goofy, but Kaine made a real effort to reach out to latinos.  Kaine was out there in AZ/FL giving speeches entirely in fluent spanish.

I hear you, but I'm pretty sure Biden's dropoff among Hispanics went far deeper than the fact Tim Kaine speaks Spanish.

[It’s so Joever]

I remember being a Lujan Grisham for VP shill in June...
If Georgia doesn’t flip, I stand by my assertion then.

[Hassan 2022]

I mean I’m glad Spanberger hung on but girl like.... complaining about a BLM attack ad against you and blaming leadership? It’s called a campaign. Learn to run one better next time so you can fight off these attacks.

She's right though.

"Defund the police" sounds really bad.

Cool. No one in the Democratic leadership ever said to defund the police. So, again, Spanberger should be able to run her own campaign without blaming others for nearly losing.

But Rashida Tlaib and AOC were all about defunding and their words were used against DMP and Spanberger

Awesome. Maybe Spanberger should complain about them then? But to be honest, she really should take responsibility for her own election results. Stop scapegoating others for your own crappy results.

Spanberger is saying that the leadership should have put its foot down and tell Rashida Tlaib and AOC to knock it off, or else...

Or else what? None of them are vulnerable, their bases are too strong to be primaries and they're in safe seats.

Kick them off the committee. If they still don't back down, kick them out of the caucus.

House Democrats can take a two seats loss.

Republicans have been attacking progressive Democrats for decades. This predates AOC, Tlaib, etc. It's not like every time a Democrat underperforms it's because of the Progressive Caucus and their tone. All you are doing is tone policing and not actually providing a substantive reason as to why certain House candidates have either lost or underperformed their '18 numbers.

[vileplume]

A few of the freshmen democrats losing is understandable given Trump was at the top of the ticket. Donna Shalala and Mucarsel-Powell however had no business losing. Democrats need to get some strong candidates and get these seats back in 2022. Even in a Biden mid-term, they'll be able to pick them back up.

I mean, their districts may have shifted from D+5 to R+5 when the Cubans decided to all vote R? And neither of them are Cuban? Not sure they could have avoided defeat in that environment. It's not their fault the "Biden is a socialist" messaging worked.

It's still southeast Florida though. Democrats can easily get back to 2018 levels and win back both seats if they run the right message. And the cloud of socialism hanging over Biden's head down here will be gone when Biden actually governs like a normal center-left democrat.

Not so sure about that. The GOP has already managed (God only knows how) to portray Biden as a socialist when he's not in power and running an unabashedly centrist/unifying campaign, so there's no reason why their efforts will stall when he's POTUS. If anything these attack lines will only become even more effective given the apparent leftward-shift in the Democratic House Caucus. Remember something doesn't actually have to be true for the GOP to get voters on board, all they need is the right messaging...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Erie County
Trump: 49.5
Biden: 49.1

Are these absolutely final results?

No. 10% of Erie is missing.

Ok. That means Erie likely stays Dem at least.

Flips Dem. It went for Trump in 2016.

I meant it's generally a Dem county still. A Trump win here even in a fairly comfortable Dem victory would signal an end, for the time being, of its Democratic status.

[GALeftist]

I mean I’m glad Spanberger hung on but girl like.... complaining about a BLM attack ad against you and blaming leadership? It’s called a campaign. Learn to run one better next time so you can fight off these attacks.

She's right though.

"Defund the police" sounds really bad.

Cool. No one in the Democratic leadership ever said to defund the police. So, again, Spanberger should be able to run her own campaign without blaming others for nearly losing.

But Rashida Tlaib and AOC were all about defunding and their words were used against DMP and Spanberger

Awesome. Maybe Spanberger should complain about them then? But to be honest, she really should take responsibility for her own election results. Stop scapegoating others for your own crappy results.

Spanberger is saying that the leadership should have put its foot down and tell Rashida Tlaib and AOC to knock it off, or else...

Or else what? None of them are vulnerable, their bases are too strong to be primaries and they're in safe seats.

Kick them off the committee. If they still don't back down, kick them out of the caucus.

House Democrats can take a two seats loss.

This would be a good way to lose 2024. Like it or not, these progressive reps have a national base, and that base probably swung some close races like WI and maybe even AZ and GA by holding their nose and voting for Biden. I know that I was one of those voters, at least to an extent. It's not all about those 4-8 house seats.

[Pyro]

I mean I’m glad Spanberger hung on but girl like.... complaining about a BLM attack ad against you and blaming leadership? It’s called a campaign. Learn to run one better next time so you can fight off these attacks.

She's right though.

"Defund the police" sounds really bad.

Cool. No one in the Democratic leadership ever said to defund the police. So, again, Spanberger should be able to run her own campaign without blaming others for nearly losing.

But Rashida Tlaib and AOC were all about defunding and their words were used against DMP and Spanberger

Awesome. Maybe Spanberger should complain about them then? But to be honest, she really should take responsibility for her own election results. Stop scapegoating others for your own crappy results.

Spanberger is saying that the leadership should have put its foot down and tell Rashida Tlaib and AOC to knock it off, or else...

LOL Yeah let's muzzle the best rising star in the Democratic Party and pulverize youth turnout.

Deflecting blame is pathetic. Put forward a vision instead of handing Trump and the GOP the narrative.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Imagine being naive enough to think Trump voters care about policy.  Spanberger should know better!

[Alben Barkley]

Anyways, if these losers are looking for someone outside of themselves to blame for their electoral performance, why don't they blame Robby Mook? Have no idea how they gave that clown the Majority PAC after 2016's unmitigated embarrassment.

As I’ve said before, I think Hillary’s campaign has been at least somewhat vindicated by the closeness of this election. Despite everything seeming to favor Biden more, despite him correcting basically everything her campaign was criticized for, he still only did slightly better. It’s enough, sure, but it’s not nearly as huge an improvement as you might expect. Pretty clear now that it’s less that Hillary was a bad candidate with a bad campaign and more that Trump just is not easy to beat due to how much he fires up WWC rural voters.

[Bootes Void]

Imagine being naive enough to think Trump voters care about policy.  Spanberger should know better!

It's all culture wars, and the Dems seemed to be in the wrong side of it this time around compared to 2018

[Badger]

It's absurd to blame "socialism" for Biden's (and the Democrats') failures among Latinos.  If Latinos were uniquely averse to "socialism", they wouldn't have overwhelmingly voted for Bernie in the primary.

The reason Biden failed among Latinos is that he made almost no effort to appeal to Latinos in either his presentation or policy focus.  Choosing Harris as a running mate was a huge mistake in this sense.  Say what you will about Tim Kaine's other weaknesses, but at least he spoke fluent Spanish and would frequent give speeches on the campaign trail in Spanish.

Moreover, this biggest moral crimes committed by the Trump administration throughout the term were on immigration.  Yet Biden almost entirely ignored this issue in favor of a focus on covid and BLM issues.  How can the communities most personally affected by Trump's immigration atrocities fail to notice this?

Yeah, I know it's trendy for everyone to absolutely hate Tim Kaine and call him the worst VP pick ever, but I wonder if the latino result in this election helps vindicate the Kaine pick somewhat.  You may have thought it was goofy, but Kaine made a real effort to reach out to latinos.  Kaine was out there in AZ/FL giving speeches entirely in fluent spanish.

I wonder if maybe an actual Latino like Castro would have been better though. Although who knows? With how deep Cuban Floridians seem to think things through, his name alone might have scared them off.

There are plenty of Cubans in Miami named Castro who have no relation to the dictators. I'm sure there be a whisper campaign in Hialeah that the congressman was Fidel's Grand nephew or something, and certainly some low-information voters would fall for it just like any community.

[pppolitics]

I mean I’m glad Spanberger hung on but girl like.... complaining about a BLM attack ad against you and blaming leadership? It’s called a campaign. Learn to run one better next time so you can fight off these attacks.

She's right though.

"Defund the police" sounds really bad.

Cool. No one in the Democratic leadership ever said to defund the police. So, again, Spanberger should be able to run her own campaign without blaming others for nearly losing.

But Rashida Tlaib and AOC were all about defunding and their words were used against DMP and Spanberger

Awesome. Maybe Spanberger should complain about them then? But to be honest, she really should take responsibility for her own election results. Stop scapegoating others for your own crappy results.

Spanberger is saying that the leadership should have put its foot down and tell Rashida Tlaib and AOC to knock it off, or else...

Or else what? None of them are vulnerable, their bases are too strong to be primaries and they're in safe seats.

Kick them off the committee. If they still don't back down, kick them out of the caucus.

House Democrats can take a two seats loss.

Incredibly divisive and alienating to just kick them out

That's the last resort.

[It’s so Joever]

I mean I’m glad Spanberger hung on but girl like.... complaining about a BLM attack ad against you and blaming leadership? It’s called a campaign. Learn to run one better next time so you can fight off these attacks.

She's right though.

"Defund the police" sounds really bad.

Cool. No one in the Democratic leadership ever said to defund the police. So, again, Spanberger should be able to run her own campaign without blaming others for nearly losing.

But Rashida Tlaib and AOC were all about defunding and their words were used against DMP and Spanberger

Awesome. Maybe Spanberger should complain about them then? But to be honest, she really should take responsibility for her own election results. Stop scapegoating others for your own crappy results.

Spanberger is saying that the leadership should have put its foot down and tell Rashida Tlaib and AOC to knock it off, or else...

Or else what? None of them are vulnerable, their bases are too strong to be primaries and they're in safe seats.

Kick them off the committee. If they still don't back down, kick them out of the caucus.

House Democrats can take a two seats loss.

Republicans have been attacking progressive Democrats for decades. This predates AOC, Tlaib, etc. It's not like every time a Democrat underperforms it's because of the Progressive Caucus and their tone. All you are doing is tone policing and not actually providing a substantive reason as to why certain House candidates have either lost or underperformed their '18 numbers.

Eh, what there needs to be is consistency.
Either all Democrats should fight back at the “socialist” label as untrue (which it is lol), or should just embrace it and try to shift the window so the word “socialist” isn’t as toxic as it is now.

[BudgieForce]

Imagine being naive enough to think Trump voters care about policy.  Spanberger should know better!

I think they care about the idea of caring about policy. Do the republican voters in Spanberger's district know the ins and outs of "Defund the police"? Probably not. Do they hear the slogan and assume they know what it means? Probably.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I understand where Spanberger is coming from. AOC having more exposure than other Democrat post-2018 minus Biden himself is not a good thing in my opinion.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyways, if these losers are looking for someone outside of themselves to blame for their electoral performance, why don't they blame Robby Mook? Have no idea how they gave that clown the Majority PAC after 2016's unmitigated embarrassment.

As I’ve said before, I think Hillary’s campaign has been at least somewhat vindicated by the closeness of this election. Despite everything seeming to favor Biden more, despite him correcting basically everything her campaign was criticized for, he still only did slightly better. It’s enough, sure, but it’s not nearly as huge an improvement as you might expect. Pretty clear now that it’s less that Hillary was a bad candidate with a bad campaign and more that Trump just is not easy to beat due to how much he fires up WWC rural voters.

It seems that people didn't want to acknowledge Trump was a genuinely strong candidate in his own right.

[CultureKing]

Anyone else notice the margin is now below 100,000 in PA?

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Jon Ralston is awesome

[Dr. Arch]

Anyone else notice the margin is now below 100,000 in PA?

Yes, under 98k.