Since there was discussion about the geographic breakdown of results earlier:
https://twitter.com/JaredGaffke/status/1226931846530899970
These numbers would normally suggest a tight race, except Bernie is getting 50% in the west and north, aka the Connecticut river towns. Very possible that if the race is close that Bernie loses the first via racking up the score in the second.
These are entirely valid points, and this poll actually makes more sense geographically than the other recent poll which showed Bernie performing better in CD-01 than CD-02....
Let's look at results from a few of these Counties from the '16 Election Results and the '20 Poll number---
Hillsborough County--- 2016 DEM Primary Results2016: 57% Sanders- 41% Clinton (+16% Sanders)
Hillsborough County--- Boston Globe PollButtigieg: 19 %
Warren: 16 %
Sanders: 15 %
Biden: 15 %
Klobuchar: 15 %
Other: 10%
Now granted it's only a small sample size for a poll of a County this large, but it appears to point to a roughly five person tie, with a slight edge to Pete....
There might well be some last minute tactical adjustments as voters might pick a 2nd string whom they also like, if they feel like their preferred candidate won't place.
So, as I surmised a few pages back the "lanes" aren't nearly as clear as they might seem to be. It's pretty obvious that not only are all of the '16 HRC voters spread throughout various other candidates (even possibly some for Bernie), and that many of the Bernie '16 voters are backing other candidates....
Now if we can assume that Bernie's best places in Hillsborough County will be the areas that he performed best in back in '16, West and North County smaller towns and rurals, this would appear to support my initial thoughts a few pages back on this thread.
Manchester--- Largest vote bank Bernie probably places within the top 2.
Nashua--- Pete/Warren
Bedford Town--- Heavily Pete/Warren
Merrimack Town- Pete/Warren
Hudson Town- Pete/Warren
GoffsTown- Bernie 1st
Amherst--- Heavily Pete/Warren
Hollis---Heavily Pete/Warren
Klob/Biden votes more even distributed between rurals/small towns and other towns that aren't part of the "Metro SE Hillsborough County Region".
Rockingham County 2016 DEM PRIM--- 55k Votes (22% of NH Vote Share) + 15% SandersRockingham County---Boston Globe PollButtigieg: 25
Sanders: 19
Klobuchar: 16
Biden: 13
Warren: 12
It is perhaps not surprising that we see Pete performing better than in Hillsborough, since at least the data points we have from the 2020 IA Caucuses, show him performing extremely well within the wealthier suburban precincts around Des Moines.
Likewise Klob did pretty well in some of these same joints in IA.
Still Sanders is doing a couple notches better than in Hillsborough according to this poll, which might well be explained by the fact Rockingham is a bit more Republican than Hillsborough at a National Level, and that there are still significant concentrations of Democratic support within the County that might have slightly different political identities.
Look at the 2016 GE Township map of NH for example and we see HRC decisively beating Trump in the heavily Upper Middle-Class regions of Eastern Rockingham County in what are generally fairly WASP parts of the State.
Look at the 2016 DEM PRIM map of NH, and we see Bernie performing extremely well in the much more heavily non-WASP places of West County, with HRC doing much better than State averages within the WASP East County Townships....
Maybe I'm totally off base here (and will happily be corrected), but as I posted a few pages back Bernie won by 23% against HRC in the largest single DEM vote share Township of Derry, which is 27% Irish-American, 24% French / French-Canadian, 17% Italian-American, and 5% Polish-American in what is essentially a working-class / Middle-Class town in terms of MHI and educational attainment....
Obviously these marginal shifts within CD's could well impact delegate counts, so we will see what happens tomorrow...
idk....this might be one hell of a precinct map (Just like IA), especially if we got dramatic shifts from one precinct to another....
