New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[Hnv1]

Republican results so far:



Donald Trump
–   81.6%   31

Bill Weld
–   13.2%   5

Mary Maxwell
–   2.6%   1

Bob Ely
–   0%   0

Eric Merrill
–   0%   0

Joe Walsh
–   0%   0

Juan Payne
–   0%   0

Larry Horn
–   0%   0

Matthew Matern
–   0%   0

President Boddie
–   0%   0

Rick Kraft
–   0%   0

Robert Ardini
–   0%   0

Rocky De La Fuente
–   0%   0

Star Locke
–   0%   0

Stephen Comley
–   0%   0

William Murphy
–   0%   0

Zoltan Istvan
–   0%   0
Other candidates
–   2.6%   1

Lmao

Wasn't Rocky DLF on the democratic ballot last time around? I remember his name from the WV primaries where you always have nobodies pulling nice numbers

[atheist4thecause]

You all got it wrong:
Preliminary Exit Polls will be released at 5pm ET.

NH has different closing times around the state. Polls must open at 11 a.m. ET or earlier and cannot close before 7:00 p.m. https://ballotpedia.org/State_Poll_Opening_and_Closing_Times_(2020) IIRC, the earliest they open is 6:00 am outside of the 12:00 am precincts. The vast majority close at 7:00 pm, but a few stay open until 8:00 pm https://app.sos.nh.gov/Public/Reports.aspx

[Gass3268]

You all got it wrong:
Preliminary Exit Polls will be released at 5pm ET.

NH has different closing times around the state. Polls must open at 11 a.m. ET or earlier and cannot close before 7:00 p.m. https://ballotpedia.org/State_Poll_Opening_and_Closing_Times_(2020) IIRC, the earliest they open is 6:00 am outside of the 12:00 am precincts. The vast majority close at 7:00 pm, but a few stay open until 8:00 pm https://app.sos.nh.gov/Public/Reports.aspx

Yes, but the networks will start provding some data points from the exit poll starting at 5 PM.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Klobuchar will declare an early win in NH!

[Mr. Morden]

The people conducting the exit poll are sequestered from the media until 5pm Eastern.  At 5pm Eastern, they share their preliminary #s with the news organizations, and so as soon as 5:10pm or so, you start to get tidbits like this one from four years ago:

First exit info from ABC:

https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/697180630413549569

Nearly half of GOP primary voters in preliminary New Hampshire exit poll results say they only decided within last few days.

Then a little more detail like this:

More exit info:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/new-hampshire-exit-poll-results-independent-voter-participation-n514991

In New Hampshire, where independent voters can choose to vote in either party's primary, Republican and Democratic campaigns have been trying to woo this crucial voting bloc. The NBC News Exit Poll finds similar participation rates by independent voters in both party primaries today as in past years.

Early exit poll results show that 42 percent of Republican primary voters in this year's race consider themselves to be political independents, and a similar 39 percent of voters in the Democratic primary think of themselves as independents.

In 2008, the last time both parties had an open nomination contest, slightly more voters in the Democratic primary (44 percent) identified themselves as independents than did voters in the Republican primary (37 percent).

What you *don't* get right away is which groups voted for which candidates.  However, after a while, the networks start to drop some nuggets on that as well, like this:

https://twitter.com/allahpundit/status/697193919029743617

Fox News exit poll: Trump at 29% among indies, Kasich 18%, Bush 14%, Cruz 13%

But it won't be until all the polls close (which I guess is 8pm in NH) that they post the entire exit poll on their websites, at which point you can use algebra (easiest is averaging male and female #s) to figure out exactly who is winning in the exits:

CNN exit poll:

Trump ~31.5
Kasich ~15.5
Cruz ~12.5
Rubio ~12.5
Bush ~11.5

[Gass3268]

What candidates will win a town, township, or city? We already have Klobuchar and Bloomberg. Sanders and Buttigieg feel like locks. Does Warren and/or Biden win one? Do we get an dark horse winner like Bennet, Gabbard, or Yang?

[StateBoiler]

Republican results so far:



Donald Trump
–   81.6%   31

Bill Weld
–   13.2%   5

Mary Maxwell
–   2.6%   1

Bob Ely
–   0%   0

Eric Merrill
–   0%   0

Joe Walsh
–   0%   0

Juan Payne
–   0%   0

Larry Horn
–   0%   0

Matthew Matern
–   0%   0

President Boddie
–   0%   0

Rick Kraft
–   0%   0

Robert Ardini
–   0%   0

Rocky De La Fuente
–   0%   0

Star Locke
–   0%   0

Stephen Comley
–   0%   0

William Murphy
–   0%   0

Zoltan Istvan
–   0%   0
Other candidates
–   2.6%   1

Lmao

Wasn't Rocky DLF on the democratic ballot last time around? I remember his name from the WV primaries where you always have nobodies pulling nice numbers

There's a Rocky De La Fuente III on the Democratic ballot and a Rocky De La Fuente Jr. on the Republican ballot.

The Rocky De La Fuente that founded the American Delta Party and ran in 2016 in a lot of states with either ballot access or write-in status is the Jr.

[Oryxslayer]

Republican results so far:



Donald Trump
–   81.6%   31

Bill Weld
–   13.2%   5

Mary Maxwell
–   2.6%   1

Bob Ely
–   0%   0

Eric Merrill
–   0%   0

Joe Walsh
–   0%   0

Juan Payne
–   0%   0

Larry Horn
–   0%   0

Matthew Matern
–   0%   0

President Boddie
–   0%   0

Rick Kraft
–   0%   0

Robert Ardini
–   0%   0

Rocky De La Fuente
–   0%   0

Star Locke
–   0%   0

Stephen Comley
–   0%   0

William Murphy
–   0%   0

Zoltan Istvan
–   0%   0
Other candidates
–   2.6%   1

Lmao

Wasn't Rocky DLF on the democratic ballot last time around? I remember his name from the WV primaries where you always have nobodies pulling nice numbers

There's a Rocky De La Fuente III on the Democratic ballot and a Rocky De La Fuente Jr. on the Republican ballot.

The Rocky De La Fuente that founded the American Delta Party and ran in 2016 in a lot of states with either ballot access or write-in status is the Jr.

I'm not quite sure what RLDF's endgame is, but it certainly is a treat for us election nerds to see a single man consistently get on every possible ballot possible since 2016.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/GarrettHaake/status/1227258274854195200?s=20

[Adam Griffin]

These tips are frankly useless. To provide some real guidance to this forum, here are GRIFF'S PATENTED 10 TIPS FOR SURVIVING ELECTION DAY

1. DO stay up all night on Election Eve. You can sleep when it's over. The more hours you're awake, the more prescient you become at discerning every morsel of Election Day information.

2. DON'T reign in expectations: after all, the Election Gods only give luck to those who dream for the sky!

3. DO overreact to every morsel of preliminary turnout data, including long/short lines, appearance of voters in line, turnout as a share of the previous election at a precinct during any portion of the day, and other observations. A good format to make you sound like an expert:

"Early reports of [adjective] turnout in [location] suggest [noun] for [party/candidate]"

4. DON'T wait for the final exit polling data to drop at 7 PM: rather, latch onto reports from the preliminary exit polls at 5 PM and reassure yourself that this is definitely reflective of the final result.

5. DO let weather forecasts and reports allow you to draw big conclusions about the outcome. After all, thunderstorms mean Democrats lose by 40 points, hot weather makes old Republicans wilt in place, people used to snow and ice don't vote in snow and ice, etc.

6. DON'T wait around for an accurate representation of precincts to begin reporting votes before calling the race; instead, DO make broad proclamations about the race at 8 PM when Democrats are losing GA by 30 points and 7% of the vote has been counted.

7. DO attend Election Night watch parties and DO bring every mobile device you have, and remain glued to them rather than socializing with your peers.

8. DON'T take anything Wolf "Wow!" Blitzer has to say at face value. Seriously.

9. DO consume as many stimulants and mood-lifting substances as you can get your hands on throughout the day; especially when combined with #1, you'll be at peak performance just in time for poll closings.

10. DON'T behave rationally at the end of the night, win or lose. Close things out after hours of arguing with opposition supporters on social media by passing out in a pool of drool on your desk.

[Gass3268]

Biden is skipping out on his election party tonight. Going to a kickoff event in South Carolina instead.

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1227265963311144961?s=20

[The Free North]

Biden is skipping out on his election party tonight. Going to a kickoff event in South Carolina instead.

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1227265963311144961?s=20

Poor guy. I feel like i'm watching someones spirit getting crushed in slow motion.

[Tender Branson]

I will get up at ~2am tomorrow to watch the exit poll and results.

4 hours of election coverage for me.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I will get up at ~2am tomorrow to watch the exit poll and results.

4 hours of election coverage for me.

Thank you for keeping us updated 

[Stańczyk]

Poor guy. I feel like i'm watching someones spirit getting crushed in slow motion.

My sense is that Biden was cajoled to run by people around him (Obama?) so I don't feel too bad about him collapsing early.

[Walmart_shopper]

I will get up at ~2am tomorrow to watch the exit poll and results.

4 hours of election coverage for me.

So thankful to be a whole hour ahead of the Krauts. I'll be up at three.

[rhg2052]

Biden is skipping out on his election party tonight. Going to a kickoff event in South Carolina instead.

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1227265963311144961?s=20

Poor guy. I feel like i'm watching someones spirit getting crushed in slow motion.

Man, those internals have got to be baaaaad.

[Walmart_shopper]

https://twitter.com/GarrettHaake/status/1227258274854195200?s=20

Found the Iowan.

[Tender Branson]

My opinion of today and the next weeks:

Pete definitely needs to win today.

... and keep his momentum the next days and weeks.

Preferably, Biden drops to below 10% today and close to 5% and gets defeated by Steyer or Bernie or Pete in SC (with the backing of White people).

And drops out.

Preferably, Klobuchar also underperforms today (10%) and drops out.

In which case Pete only has Bloomberg to face on Super Tuesday.

He could present himself as the bridge to voters between a billionaire run amok, who's trying to buy the nomination with 500 Mio. $ - and a leftist like Bernie, who could not bring his agenda through a moderate Congress.

[weixiaobao]

What would be a good website (that doesn't require a subscription) to follow the result?

[Matty]

Turnout approaching 35% already in Burlington


Very good for sanders. That’s home turf

[Eraserhead]

Biden is skipping out on his election party tonight. Going to a kickoff event in South Carolina instead.

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1227265963311144961?s=20

Poor guy. I feel like i'm watching someones spirit getting crushed in slow motion.

Man, those internals have got to be baaaaad.

The public polling is bad enough.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/DJJudd/status/1227217429195100167?s=20

[Tender Branson]

Even if he doesn't win today, Pete has run a great campaign.

A year ago, nobody knew this guy.

Now, he's at the top of the nomination polls against a former VP, a Senator who almost won the nomination in 2016, 2 female sitting Senators and a billionaire with a media empire who can spend 500 Mio. $ alone for the primary.

[Diabolical Materialism]

Even if he doesn't win today, Pete has run a great campaign.

A year ago, nobody knew this guy.

Now, he's at the top of the nomination polls against a former VP, a Senator who almost won the nomination in 2016, 2 female sitting Senators and a billionaire with a media empire who can spend 500 Mio. $ alone for the primary.

You sound nervous