New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[Tender Branson]

Buttigieg Weaponizes Biden’s Attack Ad Against Him

MANCHESTER, New Hampshire—Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor of a Midwestern city with just over 100,000 residents, wants voters gathered here in Manchester, a city with a population of approximately the same size, to know that he has something in common with them.

He also wants them to know that Joe Biden does not.

The former South Bend mayor started his speech at the McIntyre-Shaheen 100 Club Dinner, the state Democratic Party’s biggest annual fundraiser, on Saturday night with a thinly veiled shot at former Vice President Joe Biden, who all but conceded the prior night that he’s unlikely to win the primary on Feb. 11.

“I know some are asking, what business does the South Bend mayor have seeking the highest office in the land,” Buttigieg started, addressing Biden without mentioning him by name. “You don’t have an office in Washington,  you don’t have decades of experience in the establishment, the city you are the mayor of isn’t even the biggest city in the country.”

“It is more like Manchester, New Hampshire,” he said, to applause.

Buttigieg’s comments come as Biden escalated attacks on the 38-year old former mayor just one day after they sparred during the eighth Democratic debate. The former VP’s campaign, in desperate need of a primary boost after coming in fourth place in the Iowa caucuses, released a new digital ad appearing to minimize his opponent’s experience as a local official in Indiana.

The spot, titled, “Pete's Record,” contrasts Biden and Buttigieg’s records—with a spotlight on Biden’s time negotiating significant pieces of legislation under former President Barack Obama compared to the relatively smaller accomplishments of a small city in Indiana.  

Buttigieg, who has enjoyed a significant post-Iowa polling boost, successfully twisted the ad spot to his advantage, winning roaring applause.

“To which I say, that is very much the point, because Americans in small, rural towns and industrial communities and yes, in our biggest cities, are tired of being reduced to a punchline by Washington politicians, and ready for someone to take the voice to the American capital. And that is how we are going to defeat Donald Trump,” Buttigieg said.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/bidens-attack-ad-on-mayor-pete-backfires-in-manchester

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Why are the "applause" mentions in red? I'd find it strange if his supporters didn't react at all to something he said

[Santander]

Why are the "applause" mentions in red? I'd find it strange if his supporters didn't react at all to something he said

Maybe he's looking for an English lesson?

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1226370137311367168

5 people are eligible to vote there this year.

(They will re-open their big hotel in 2024, so there could be more people voting then.)

My guess:

2 Bernie
1 Pete
1 Amy
1 Warren

0 Trump

[atheist4thecause]

Why are the "applause" mentions in red? I'd find it strange if his supporters didn't react at all to something he said

Yeah, the whole thing is ridiculous. They are trying to use as evidence that Biden's attacks on Buttigieg are backfiring because at Buttigieg's campaign rally, his supporters applauded him. lol

[n1240]

The party reg stats are 4 IND and 1 REP so Trump is guaranteed a vote.

Sanders 3
Klobuchar 1

Trump 1

[Tender Branson]

The party reg stats are 4 IND and 1 REP so Trump is guaranteed a vote.

Sanders 3
Klobuchar 1

Trump 1

Oh, ok.

But Republicans (like Indys) can also vote in the Dem. primary I guess.

Typically, the exit polls show something like 70% D composition in a NH Dem. primary, 25% Indys and 5% Rs.

[n1240]

The party reg stats are 4 IND and 1 REP so Trump is guaranteed a vote.

Sanders 3
Klobuchar 1

Trump 1

Oh, ok.

But Republicans (like Indys) can also vote in the Dem. primary I guess.

Typically, the exit polls show something like 70% D composition in a NH Dem. primary, 25% Indys and 5% Rs.

That's just party ID isn't it? New Hampshire is semi-closed where Democrats are restricted to a Democratic ballot and Republicans are restricted to a Republican ballot. Independents are allowed to declare a party at their polling place, and have a choice of switching back to undeclared before leaving the polling place.

[Tintrlvr]

Why are the "applause" mentions in red? I'd find it strange if his supporters didn't react at all to something he said

It would be interesting strategically if he managed to scramble out an ad with this message to run opposite the Biden ads on Monday night, but I agree that a speech to supporters is not so meaningful.

[2016]

I am curious where Biden finishes here. He could finish 3rd or he could finish 5th.

[Tender Branson]

The line of people outside a Nashua high school was about 3 miles long today for the Pete event:

https://twitter.com/justingomezabc/status/1226549410466877443

This is keeping me optimistic for Tuesday.

[Walmart_shopper]

Why are the "applause" mentions in red? I'd find it strange if his supporters didn't react at all to something he said

New Hampshirites do occasionally need a friendly prompt.

[Grassroots]

Bernie is going to kill it.

The heart condition has me worried though. High levels of stress can bring on a heart attack, so i am genuinely concerned about the guy as a person before his politics.

This is a very strong reason as to why he shouldn't be president at all, aside from the extreme leftism and all that.

[redjohn]

Bernie is going to kill it.

The heart condition has me worried though. High levels of stress can bring on a heart attack, so i am genuinely concerned about the guy as a person before his politics.

This is a very strong reason as to why he shouldn't be president at all, aside from the extreme leftism and all that.

Oh to be a Pete supporter and believe Bernie is an extreme leftist. Bernie will be fine. If he's not, that's the reason we have a Vice President.

[ElectionsGuy]

Theory about New Hampshire: The polls will be wrong in a way that benefits somebody that did not win the Iowa caucus. In 2008, polls were off by 11 points underestimating Clinton. In 2016, polls were off by 9 points underestimating Sanders. Will the same hold true in 2020?

It's probably a hot garbage idea but who knows.

Really depends on what you mean by "winning", especially considering the circumstances around the primary. I would not say that Sanders lost, for example. Anyway, that basically leaves Warren and Biden, both of whom I do not see doing especially well in New Hampshire.

I think Pete is more likely the one who got the perceived victory, the media focused on the SDE count rather than the popular vote and he got way more of a bump in the polls than Sanders did. So if the theory is right, then I would think Sanders would benefit (as in, the polls would underestimate Sanders).

[Crumpets]

Bernie is going to kill it.

The heart condition has me worried though. High levels of stress can bring on a heart attack, so i am genuinely concerned about the guy as a person before his politics.

This is a very strong reason as to why he shouldn't be president at all, aside from the extreme leftism and all that.

Oh to be a Pete supporter and believe Bernie is an extreme leftist. Bernie will be fine. If he's not, that's the reason we have a Vice President.

As I non-Bernie supporter, this is something I don't understand and perhaps you can explain it to me. Bernie is not an extreme leftist. He's barely even a socialist by most definitions. Nordic-style economics is not a revolutionary ideology. Why then is he seen as so unique within the party and within US politics as a whole among his support base when his record is hardly out of line with more mainstream elements of the party and the revolution he is basing his entire campaign on is just "we support the same ends as every Democratic president in the modern era have supported, we'll just actually get it done"?

And I'm genuinely not asking this to mock him. I'd really like Bernie more and be more likely to vote for him if he had the same policy positions but stopped trying to pretend they're radical; I feel like a big reason for the disenchantment with politics among his base is due to the fact that they see all these policies as a pipe dream unless it's Bernie at the helm, when really, it's a lot more down to Senate seats and the Supreme Court in the long run than it is any one presidential campaign or candidate. I just feel like it lends to the bigger idea that there's nothing you can do to help the country short of literal revolution, when those are exactly the people we need to have an active voice in shaping policy and showing up to vote outside of presidential election campaigns.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Bernie is going to kill it.

The heart condition has me worried though. High levels of stress can bring on a heart attack, so i am genuinely concerned about the guy as a person before his politics.

This is a very strong reason as to why he shouldn't be president at all, aside from the extreme leftism and all that.

Oh to be a Pete supporter and believe Bernie is an extreme leftist. Bernie will be fine. If he's not, that's the reason we have a Vice President.

As I non-Bernie supporter, this is something I don't understand and perhaps you can explain it to me. Bernie is not an extreme leftist. He's barely even a socialist by most definitions. Nordic-style economics is not a revolutionary ideology. Why then is he seen as so unique within the party and within US politics as a whole among his support base when his record is hardly out of line with more mainstream elements of the party and the revolution he is basing his entire campaign on is just "we support the same ends as every Democratic president in the modern era have supported, we'll just actually get it done"?

And I'm genuinely not asking this to mock him. I'd really like Bernie more and be more likely to vote for him if he had the same policy positions but stopped trying to pretend they're radical; I feel like a big reason for the disenchantment with politics among his base is due to the fact that they see all these policies as a pipe dream unless it's Bernie at the helm, when really, it's a lot more down to Senate seats and the Supreme Court in the long run than it is any one presidential campaign or candidate. I just feel like it lends to the bigger idea that there's nothing you can do to help the country short of literal revolution, when those are exactly the people we need to have an active voice in shaping policy and showing up to vote outside of presidential election campaigns.

When you add all his spending proposals together, they cost $97 trillion over ten years.  That is 10x more than the sum of all billionaire net worth in the United States.  You would have to tax 50% of the entire GDP to pay for it.  The left-wing is notorious for wanting completely unfeasible levels of spending, but $97T over ten years really takes the cake for extremism.

Sanders has proposed dismantling entire sectors of the economy.  He has demonized billionaires, wall-street bankers, pretty much anyone involved in business or anyone who has money or anyone in the political establishment.  He has an "enemies list" on his website where he proudly lists all the people who have criticized him.

And this is just Sanders today.  If you go back 10-20 years you have him praising communist movements in Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and so on.  You have him idolizing the Soviet Union and talking about how bread lines are a good thing.  You have him saying the Democratic Party is irredeemably corrupt and exactly the same as the Republican Party, that JFK made him sick, that Obama should be primaried.

And if you go back even further, you get to his really wild days in the 70s when he wrote angry polemics to his local papers, was involved in political organizations that were much more openly communist and radical, and advocated policies like a 100% tax on all wealth over $1M, nationalization of all utility companies and banks, and state ownership of the means of production.  Essentially, he was a dyed-in-the-wool socialist.  Not a "democratic socialist."  A Marxist socialist.  And proud of it.

Now, maybe Mr. "He's been saying the same thing for 40 years" actually changed a lot in the last 40 years.  Where once he wanted nationalization of everything and a Cuba-style confiscation of wealth, now he's just a "democratic socialist" and only wants to spend $97T, dismantle huge sectors of the economy, and put an 80% tax on the wealthy.  But you can understand why this is unsettling to people who work in those industries, or who would have to pay that 80% tax, or who have an economics background and understand the impact of super-high spending, or who were alive in 1978 and remember how insane you had to be to support communism back then.

[We Live in Black and White]

Americans today are so lucky that Republicans like GMA are a dying breed in the Democratic Party.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Why I'm feeling a bit better for Sanders in NH: An #Analysis

Those who have been watching politics for longer will remember Hillary Clinton's New Hampshire win in 2008, she ended up outperforming the polls post-Iowa, but that doesn't tell the whole story.

 

Hillary Clinton had been leading in New Hampshire prior to the Iowa Caucus occurring (was on January 3rd) and she of course ended up winning the State.

 

As you can see, Hillary Clinton led the polls for most of the 2008 cycle within the timeframe selected on RCP within New Hampshire.

 

Similarly, in 2016, Bernie Sanders led in New Hampshire for most of the cycle, and he ended up outperforming his poll averages in the end.

And now let's take a look at 2020:

 

Bernie Sanders has again led the New Hampshire polling for most of the latter half of 2019/early 2020

Finally, a look at the final polling average vs the actual results in New Hampshire (2008 and 2016)
2008:
 
2016:
 

Summary: In both 2008 and 2016, the leader of the polls throughout most of the cycle in New Hampshire ended up outperforming their polling averages within the State. In 2008, similar to what we are seeing now, the "winner" of the Iowa Caucus ended up surging (Obama was closer in 2008 which led him to lead in most if not all post Iowa polls). IF the trend continues, then Bernie Sanders should underperform his present polling numbers and Pete Buttigieg may underperform (especially considering the latest tracking polls show Buttigieg falling and Klobuchar rising).

(all images Copyright RealClearPolitics)

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think Biden will get 2nd or 3rd

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

He has an "enemies list" on his website where he proudly lists all the people who have criticized him.

I am sure you are very upset not to have made it on to the list.

If you really believe what you are saying though, then you had better prepare yourself for being sent away for re-education. Or, if you want to avoid that, change your tune before it is too late. Save yourself!

[GeneralMacArthur]

He has an "enemies list" on his website where he proudly lists all the people who have criticized him.

I am sure you are very upset not to have made it on to the list.

If you really believe what you are saying though, then you had better prepare yourself for being sent away for re-education. Or, if you want to avoid that, change your tune before it is too late. Save yourself!

It's not an issue of believing or not believing.  It's right here.  https://berniesanders.com/anti-endorsements/

I looked on a whim to see if the term "enemies" was used anywhere in the page, and all the images of these people are named "enemy 12" etc.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

He has an "enemies list" on his website where he proudly lists all the people who have criticized him.

I am sure you are very upset not to have made it on to the list.

If you really believe what you are saying though, then you had better prepare yourself for being sent away for re-education. Or, if you want to avoid that, change your tune before it is too late. Save yourself!

It's not an issue of believing or not believing.  It's right here.  https://berniesanders.com/anti-endorsements/

I looked on a whim to see if the term "enemies" was used anywhere in the page, and all the images of these people are named "enemy 12" etc.

A report has been sent to Comrade Dzerzhinsky, you should see your name added to the enemies list within a week or so, and some men will drop by a bit later for a friendly chat.

[Dr. Arch]

I wanted to vomit when I saw Biden's new attack piece on Buttigieg. He's actually ridiculing Mayor Pete for fixing sidewalks and potholes. WTF.

I'm not sure what he's thinking.

"Here are small town solutions to small town problems being solved by a small town mayor.

LOL."

Everyone Watching: "...??"

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I think New Hampshire is gonna be another photo finish between Sanders and Buttigieg, I am going on a limb and predict Klobuchar comes 4th to Biden's 5th because she's rising at the right moment.