New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[Progressive Pessimist]

Sanders is not going to win by anywhere close to how he won in 2016, but I do think he'll win. It's probably going to be close though which is awful news for the party. These crowded, close contests are going to do nothing but continue to tear it apart and enable conspiracy theories.

[Nyvin]

Biden is kinda crashing in the polls the last few days.   It's totally possible he only gets single digits in NH.    That would be horrible for him.

A lot of people seem to be switching from Biden to Buttigieg. 

[Tender Branson]

50% (!) of NH primary voters are still undecided.

That’s huge.

Those undecided and the big factor of Independents being able to vote could result in a mega landslide on Tuesday (one way or the other).

[It’s so Joever]

If Sanders doesn’t win by a 10% margin, that would be shocking.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

If Sanders doesn’t win by a 10% margin, that would be shocking.

I mean, Buttigieg is narrowly winning in the latest poll..

[win win]

If Bernie can't get more than 25% in NH , it's a really bad sign. This is his backyard.

[W]

Entirely possible Biden gets <10% here. Would be a big deal if so.

[Tender Branson]

This is funny:

‘Back to the Future’ with Pete Buttigieg.

KEENE — Pete Buttigieg had a celebrity introducer as he kicked off his first campaign rally of the weekend here: Michael J. Fox.

The “Back to the Future” star spoke about last night’s debate as he began his remarks, pointing to Mr. Buttigieg’s calm demeanor.

“I love all the Democratic nominees, but they’re all yelling at me,” he said, as the crowd chuckled. Mr. Buttigieg, he said, “was quiet and just making his point.”

Mr. Fox, who said he first noticed Mr. Buttigieg during an appearance on a morning show, ticked off his résumé, with a quick poke at President Trump.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/new-hampshire-primary-02-08#back-to-the-future-with-pete-buttigieg



Biff = Trump
Marty = Pete

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Can this also be used for the Republican results?

[Mr. Smith]

If Sanders doesn’t win by a 10% margin, that would be shocking.

Not if it's because of a Warren resurgence.

[Dr. Arch]

So, uhh...

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

So, uhh...

Is that in response for Sanders' lead, Buttigieg's sudden rise, Biden's plummet or Gabbard's 6%?

[Dr. Arch]

So, uhh...

Is that in response for Sanders' lead, Buttigieg's sudden rise, Biden's plummet or Gabbard's 6%?

Bernie's lead was expected, more Buttigieg and Biden.

[GoTfan]

I say Buttigieg wins.

[OBD]

Rooting for Buttigieg but Sanders probably has this. Would be interesting if they’re the only ones who clear 15% though.

[Tintrlvr]

Rooting for Buttigieg but Sanders probably has this. Would be interesting if they’re the only ones who clear 15% though.

Sanders and Buttigieg being the only ones to clear 15% (get delegates) seems quite likely now unless the polls are way off.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Will this thread get to 137 pages?

[Smash255]

Rooting for Buttigieg but Sanders probably has this. Would be interesting if they’re the only ones who clear 15% though.

Sanders and Buttigieg being the only ones to clear 15% (get delegates) seems quite likely now unless the polls are way off.

Why I do think that is a very real possibility, it's not really like the polls have to be that far off for someone else to break 15%.  I think Warren has a better shot than Biden at this point, but keep in mind you don't need to break 15% statewide to walk away with any delegates, could be 13-14% statewide, but crack 15% in a district and get a delegate or two.

[NOVA Green]

One thing that I'm wondering is what the overall results will be by regions within NH...

We have limited data to predict 2020 DEM PRIM results, but Sanders was on the ballot in 2016, so at least that gives us something to work with...

The largest Counties in terms of DEM electorate share were Sanders weakest Counties in 2016.

Hillsborough County--- 69k Votes (28% of Vote Share) + 16% Sanders
Rockingham County--- 55k Votes (22% of Vote Share)  + 15% Sanders
Merrimack County---    31k Votes (13% of Vote Share)  + 17% Sanders

Collectively these three Counties accounted for almost 2/3rd of the 2016 DEM PRIM electorate.

We can assume that in 2020 their vote share will be at least as much, and quite possibly more depending upon indies that voted in the Pub primary in '16 decide to cross over and vote in a more active DEM primary in 2020.

If we look at the recent polling from NH with Bernie looking like having maybe a 5% lead over Pete, it is entirely plausible that part of this is coming from these counties of SE NH, where Pete might well be leading....

It should also be noted that Hillsborough and Rockingham Counties have the highest MHI within NH at $ 73k /Yr in the former and $82k/Yr in the latter. These two Counties also have the highest rate of Educational attainment with 23% having a Bachelors + in Hillsborough and  25% in Rockingham.

Bernie won in a landslide in the (4) Counties that directly border VT, (54k votes, 22% of the vote share) winning by +36% Bernie.

These are the poorest places in NH with 3/4 Counties with an MHI of ~$58k/Yr, and Coos County only $45k/yr with a population that is 50% French and French-Canadian....

Now, these Counties skew much heavily older 65+ than other parts of NH, although Carroll County might be an exception with something like 34% of the Pop 60+ Yrs.

It is entirely plausible that Biden might be eating into Bernie's numbers a bit here among Senior Voters, Pete grabbing some as well, and Warren grabbing some votes from some of the heavily College educated towns / townships that are scattered around in the Social Landscape....

Still, my current running assumption is that Bernie still has a pretty solid lead in those (4) Counties, and likely a decent lead in the other (3) Counties which collectively held  ~37% of the NH vote share  in '16.

Anybody else ideas about which candidates will perform better/worse in various parts of NH???

[NOVA Green]

Will this thread get to 137 pages?

Doubtful... it's not like we are awaiting results from some small remote mining community in Australia back in the '40s....

https://www.mining-technology.com/projects/hamersley/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pilbara_Iron

After all we count our election results extremely quickly efficiently and accurately every time in America.

[Oryxslayer]

Will this thread get to 137 pages?

Doubtful... it's not like we are awaiting results from some small remote mining community in Australia back in the '40s....

https://www.mining-technology.com/projects/hamersley/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pilbara_Iron

After all we count our election results extremely quickly efficiently and accurately every time in America.

In a seriousness, the only chance of this thread getting that big requires the results to (once again) be unknown and TCTC well after midnight. That probably requires the voters to deliver another nailbiter result, forcing those who care to wait for the late towns and the potential recount. That or some bots go crazy and mods are asleep.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Will this thread get to 137 pages?

Doubtful... it's not like we are awaiting results from some small remote mining community in Australia back in the '40s....

https://www.mining-technology.com/projects/hamersley/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pilbara_Iron

After all we count our election results extremely quickly efficiently and accurately every time in America.

Lulz NOVA. Part of Western Australian gold mining history involves Herbert Hoover as a younger man before he became the 31st US President.

http://www.gwalia.org.au/hoover-house/history/

Please resume NH thread to 137 pages.

[NOVA Green]

So let's take slightly deeper dive into the Democratic "Breadbasket" of NH....

Let's start with the largest Place in the largest County:

Hillsborough County:

Manchester City--- (7.4% of '16 NH DEM PRIM Vote and 26.4% of the County Vote Share.)

18k Votes (55-41 Sanders-Clinton)    +14% Sanders

Population of the City is 110k  (8.3% of NH State Pop)....

MHI is only $54.9k / Yr

Race/Ethnicity: 80% "White" , 8% Latino, 4% Black, and 4% Asian.

Age: Skews fairly young with roughly 20% of the Pop <18, and a huge bulge in the the Millennial pocket with over 27% of the Pop 18-35 Yrs.

Ancestry: Tends to skew pretty heavily non-WASP, so likely roughly 60% Catholic?

28% French / French-Canadian
19% Irish
9%   Italian
4%   Polish

Education: (25+ Yrs)

13% no HS Degree
50% HS Degree
37% Greater than HS Degree (Including Associate Degrees)

Occupations: Administration, Sales, and Production, and Food Service exceed in the top Five Categories of workers in NH, with Mgmt being well below Statewide numbers...

Interestingly enough although overall the Manchester Area has a huge number of workers in the Health Care Sector, it still slightly below the Statewide average with 14% of workers in that industry, while meanwhile the 2nd largest industry Retail is basically tied. Mfg is actually significantly below the statewide average with only 11.5% working vs a 14% statewide average.

So apparently HRC did really well among non WASP Catholic Ethnic Ancestral Voters here in '16.

What will Manchester City look like in 2020 in a split field?

Looks on the surface to me like a City where Bernie, Pete, & Joe will likely all do well....

Nashua City: (6.1% of '16 NH DEM PRIM Vote and 21.6% of the County Vote Share.)

15k Votes (53% Sanders- 44% Clinton)    +8% Bernie

Pop of the City is 87k (6.6% of the NH Pop).

MHI= $68.9k/Yr

Race/Ethnicity: 75% "White" , 12% Latino, 3% Black, and 7% Asian.

Age: 20% <18 Yrs, 24% 18-35 Yrs.

Ancestry: 22% French & French-Canadian, 20% Irish, 10% Italian, 4% Polish

Education: 10% no HS Degree, 46% HS Degree, 44% > than HS Degree

Occupations: Administration (15%) exceeds statewide avgs and Sales & Mgmt are slightly below, Food Service Higher, but now you got a huge 7% in Computers & Math....

Industries: 16% Mfg (Well beyond the statewide avg), Health Care is a bit below, retail is close to statewide avg, but 9% Professional is way beyond statewide....

So, what does this mean for the DEM Primary???

Nashua City looks like a place that might well be a "Cookie-Cutter" Pete City.... (At least looking at Pete's results from IA). Still wouldn't be surprised to see Warren get a bit of a piece of the pie here as well, but wouldn't be surprised to see Bernie possibly placing 3rd in the joint....

I'll leave the small towns of 2-3k DEM voters in '16 for the next post.... but food for thought as we lead up to which candidates might do well where in NH....

[NOVA Green]

Will this thread get to 137 pages?

Doubtful... it's not like we are awaiting results from some small remote mining community in Australia back in the '40s....

https://www.mining-technology.com/projects/hamersley/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pilbara_Iron

After all we count our election results extremely quickly efficiently and accurately every time in America.

Lulz NOVA. Part of Western Australian gold mining history involves Herbert Hoover as a younger man before he became the 31st US President.

http://www.gwalia.org.au/hoover-house/history/

Please resume NH thread to 137 pages.

Hey Meclazine--- was just takin' a piss and having a spot of fun Mate, so believe you appreciate (I think) my joke....

According to some of my Australian friends on a few internet Forums, there's still a chance we might get a missing episode or two of B&W Doctor Who from these remote Pit mines well outside of Perth...

Carry on folks nothing to see here, despite me having some family history on my Fathers Grandmothers side when it comes to being Irish-Welsh Slate Miners in NH after fleeing the oppression from the "Old Country"....

Meanwhile, any ideas about where in NH the various DEM candidates may or may not perform strongly or weakly?

[Meclazine for Israel]

Bernie is going to kill it.

The heart condition has me worried though. High levels of stress can bring on a heart attack, so i am genuinely concerned about the guy as a person before his politics.