🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[NOVA Green]

Another flip:

194: Gera-Greiz-Altenburger Land (Thuringen)    CDU >AfD

Is this the first Afd pickup?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Another flip:

194: Gera-Greiz-Altenburger Land (Thuringen)    CDU >AfD

Is this the first Afd pickup?

No. Take a look at the map I posted some minutes ago.

[NOVA Green]

Another flip:

194: Gera-Greiz-Altenburger Land (Thuringen)    CDU >AfD

Is this the first Afd pickup?

No. Take a look at the map I posted some minutes ago.

Got it--- color coding looks different on the map on the right for AfD so didn't catch that--- Thanks!

[Logical]

No. There have been 7 AFD pickups so far. All from CDU.
Meissen
Gera – Greiz – Altenburger Land
Gotha – Ilm-Kreis
Chemnitzer Umland – Erzgebirgskreis II
Mittelsachsen
Saalfeld-Rudolstadt – Saale-Holzland-Kreis – Saale-Orla-Kreis
Eisenach – Wartburgkreis – Unstrut-Hainich-Kreis

[Oryxslayer]

Another flip:

194: Gera-Greiz-Altenburger Land (Thuringen)    CDU >AfD

Is this the first Afd pickup?

Nope, every AfD seat outside of Saxony is a flip, and their gonna get 5 to 6 flips from the Union out of Saxony. Honestly surprised they aren't gonna get one from Brandenburg.

[brucejoel99]

Any chance the free voters enter? Do they need to be at 5% nationally or in one state?

It is basically impossible. They would need 3 direct seats (which in practice would be in Bavaria), or 5% nationally, and they are not really close to either.

Like their Bavaria results are great, but it's a 1% average elsewhere. Seems like previous CSU voters parked their vote with FW since they needed another 'mainstream' right-wing party that wasn't with the Union - similar to the state election.

Great enough to actually win some list seats in Bavaria, or still sub-5% even there?

[Alcibiades]

It’s actually quite surprising how close the SPD ran the Greens in Freiburg for the Direktmandat. Also interesting to see the Greens win the Zweitstimmen in Hannover II.

[Omolloy]

I would be very curious to see if a Red-Red-Green coalition might still end up being mathematically possible. From what I recall, the initial ARD exit poll had them 14 seats away from a majority, but here they would only be 4 seats short.

That's not to say that such a coalition would be practically possible, because even if they do end up with a majority it would be razor-thin, but any hypothetically workable SPD-Die Linke-Green alliance puts a lot more pressure on the FPD in coalition talks.

[Oryxslayer]

Any chance the free voters enter? Do they need to be at 5% nationally or in one state?

It is basically impossible. They would need 3 direct seats (which in practice would be in Bavaria), or 5% nationally, and they are not really close to either.

Like their Bavaria results are great, but it's a 1% average elsewhere. Seems like previous CSU voters parked their vote with FW since they needed another 'mainstream' right-wing party that wasn't with the Union - similar to the state election.

Great enough to actually win some list seats in Bavaria, or still sub-5% even there?

7 to 10% in the rural areas, which gives them no flips cause the CSU controls Bavaria and seats are awarded based on a parties federal voteshare. It's a great showing, but limited to a single portion of the overall results.

[Logical]

Stuttgart I, another Green gain from CDU. Cem Ozdemir wins a direct mandate. Outperformed the Zweitstime by 12%.

[Oryxslayer]

Stuttgart I, another Green gain from CDU. Cem Ozdemir wins a direct mandate. Outperformed the Zweitstime by 12%.

SPD interestingly wins the Stuttgart II list vote, but not because they gained any serious numbers of votes. More because the Union lost 5% of votes to the FDP from ballot 1 to 2.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyone else noticing the SPD doing better in Lower Saxony in terms of direct seats?

[Yeahsayyeah]

Anyone else noticing the SPD doing better in Lower Saxony?

I think, SPD doing better in their traditionally strong reagins in the north and west was largely expected.

[NOVA Green]

More flips:

155: Meissen (Sachsen)    CDU > AfD
258: Stuttgart I (Baden Wurttemberg) CDU > Green (!!!)
219: Muchen Sud (Bayern)  CSU > Green
150: Markischer Kreis II (NRW)  SPD > CDU
72: Halle (Sachsen Anhalt) CDU > SPD

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyone else noticing the SPD doing better in Lower Saxony?

I think, SPD doing better in their traditionally strong reagins in the north and west was largely expected.

Ah, that would make sense.
Getting 2002 vibes.

[Logical]

We have our first SPD->CDU flip of the night.
CDU general secretary Paul Zemiak wins Märkischer Kreis II.

CSU also loses their first direct mandate. München-Süd goes green.

Olaf Scholz wins Potsdam – Potsdam-Mittelmark II – Teltow-Fläming II with 34% of the vote way ahead of Annalena Baerbock with 18,8%.

[Oryxslayer]

Union flip Märkischer Kreis II direct mandate from SPD, probably one of the few they'll flip overall. SPD hold the list vote. CDU secretary Paul Ziemiak carries the day.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Looks like there is no possible coalition without FDP or CDU/CSU

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

[Astatine]

SPD is on track to sweep all 52 municipalities in Saarland.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Currently walking home drunk with a currywurst, AMA

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Currently walking home drunk with a currywurst, AMA

What was the mood like at the party you went to?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1442242560181747719?s=20

EuropeElects seat estimate. R2G short by 12, but Union definitely in second. Also probably the 1 from SSW, but we have no official data on S-H yet to judge.

[NOVA Green]

Another CDU > SPD flip

103: Solingen-Remscheid- Wuppertal II   (NRW)  CDU > SPD (With again Greens gaining dramatically)