🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Logical]

Funny results for Erststimme in Dresden II – Bautzen II
CDU 18,6
AFD 18,6
SPD 15,3
Greens 13,6
LINKE 11,8
FDP 11

Every party in double digits for both votes!

[It’s so Joever]

Even the SPD is ahead of CDU now in Saxony. That's a shocker.

Wait, really?
Not watching the election on tv but really?

[FrancoAgo]

Yes, this is a real noble running as a MLPD candidate. She won 413 votes in Gotha-Ilm Kreis.

Strange republic is the Germany, why she need to write baronesse in the poster?

[Oryxslayer]

Even the SPD is ahead of CDU now in Saxony. That's a shocker.

Wait, really?
Not watching the election on tv but really?

AfD gonna AfD.


Also, Greens surprisingly get the direct mandate and list vote in Bonn.

[Astatine]

Does  the SPD sweep of Saarland means that AKK will be headed to Berlin on a list mandate?

Yes, as well as Altmaier. Nadine Schön, #3 and CDU caucus deputy leader, might be in trouble depending on how how compensatory seats get distributed.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Even the SPD is ahead of CDU now in Saxony. That's a shocker.

Wait, really?
Not watching the election on tv but really?

Yes. And all that is left is Leipzig and one tiny muncipality. I didn't do the math but they actually could come out on top of the list vote in Saxony with 22 per cent or so.

Never mind. If flipped some numbers and the AfD lead is too strong...but the second place behind AfD is safe for the SPD.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Die Linke has won its first official direct mandate:
Sören Pellmann could retain his constituency Leipzig II.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Die Linke has won its first official direct mandate:
Sören Pellmann could retain his constituency Leipzig II.

This was expected for a while, but it's good for Die Linke that this is now becoming official.

[Oryxslayer]

Die Linke has won its first official direct mandate:
Sören Pellmann could retain his constituency Leipzig II.

This was expected for a while, but it's good for Die Linke that this is now becoming official.

And it actually could matter: EuropeElects presently projects Linke at 4.9%.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A thought: does reducing the number of direct mandates to 250 make it significantly easier for Die Linke to end up with a seat count in the single digits in a future Bundestag election?

[urutzizu]

In what universe are the CDU supporters on BBC News living in? "Disappointed, we thought we would be above 30%” lmao

Anyways there might be one more Hochrechnung from ARD/ZDF but going by how it was previously, that should be it. From 1AM nothing and then you have to wait for the full count which was a 5AM last time. The numbers can from the last Hochrechnung to the Full Count still shift by a few tenths of a percent. Definitely for whether the Linke breaks 5% (not relevant for the seats as they will get 3 districts, but still a huge psychological difference).

[Oryxslayer]

Greens win Frankfurt am Main II, Munster, and top the list vote in Frankfurt am Main I. Still gonna finish behind the AfD in direct mandates, but it will be close given how the Green coalition is much less efficient at winning these type of seats.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Official: SPD gain Vorpommern-Rügen – Vorpommern-Greifswald I from CDU.

[brucejoel99]

Official: SPD gain Vorpommern-Rügen – Vorpommern-Greifswald I from CDU.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Official: SPD gain Vorpommern-Rügen – Vorpommern-Greifswald I from CDU.

If I was Merkel and I was seeing my home Bundeslander going full SPD sweep, I would be disappointed too.

[Astatine]

The FPTP element of MMP at its best - District Dresden II-Bautzen II.

[Yeahsayyeah]

The FPTP element of MMP at its best - District Dresden II-Bautzen II.

The most "fun" is that the SPD actually won the list vote, there, but many centre-left voters probably thought they had to vote for the CDU to avoid an AfD gain.

[Oryxslayer]

The FPTP element of MMP at its best - District Dresden II-Bautzen II.

The most "fun" is that the SPD actually won the list vote, there, but many centre-left voters probably thought they had to vote for the CDU to avoid an AfD gain.

No the AfD won the list in Dresden II. It's Dresden I where the SPD topped the list. Did finish ahead of the Union on the list in both seats.

If we want to talk about real FPTP shenanigans, Linke got 8% more on the ballot in Leipzig II than their list. Same motives probably - the desire to prevent the AfD/Union - but it would have been the Greens who benefited. Because these voters went Linke on the first ballot, Linke might get its share of seats rather than fall out because of the threshold.

[mileslunn]

Looks like Greens are doing well in large cities, but in smaller cities and rural areas failing never mind former East Germany thus problem for them.  SPD at least doing well in former East Germany and has a strong Northern base even outside cities.  CDU/CSU still strong in South where traditionally strong but struggling outside.  FDP seems to be one that lacks any real stronghold and support fairly even.  AfD mostly in Southeastern part and Linke while doing bad everywhere, is definitely stronger in former East Germany than West.  Former West Germany seems to favour moderate parties and avoids extremes while those on far left or far right do much better in former East Germany.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Sorry, I mixed up. It's getting late.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Middle class citizen Friedrich Montgomery Merz won his constituency Hochsauerlandkreis, albeit with the lowest percentage value ever (40.4%).
He already used to hold that district for 16 years until stepping down.
After his sudden political comeback, he chose to retake that district, and very surprisingly, he did win the primary against his successor Patrick Sensburg.

[NOVA Green]

Had to head out and run a few errands:

Recent flip from a few mins back:

13: Ludswiglust-Parchim II- Nordwest Mecklenberg II- Landkreis Rostock I

(Mecklenburg Vorpommern) CDU > SPD (Massive collapse of CDU > SPD and not just Linke > SPD % shift scene or AfD situation.

[NOVA Green]

Another recent flip (15 mins back):

93- Koln I (NRW)   CDU>SPD      Greens place 2nd and push CDU into 3rd

[urutzizu]

ICYMI ZDF Hochrechnung 01:09

SPD:     25.8%
Union:   24.1%
Greens: 14.6%
FDP:      11.5%
AfD:      10.4%
Linke:    4.9%

Meaning ZDF and ARD (23:36) are Identical (give or take 0.1 from the AfD).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Philipp Augustus Amthor, one of the crookedest MPs of the Bundestag, lost his constituency Mecklenburgische Seenplatte I – Vorpommern-Greifswald II to the SPD candidate Erik Malottki, while only coming in third after the AfD candidate Enrico Komning.