🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[NOVA Green]

ICYMI ZDF Hochrechnung 01:09

SPD:     25.8%
Union:   24.1%
Greens: 14.6%
FDP:      11.5%
AfD:      10.4%
Linke:    4.9%

Meaning ZDF and ARD (23:36) are Identical (give or take 0.1 from the AfD).

Nice to see the AfD significantly behind the FDP.

[NOVA Green]

Another flip from Rostock official 14 mins back:

14- Landkreis- Rostock II  (Mecklenburg Vorpommern)     CDU> SPD

CDU  = -12.6%
SPD=   +9.0%
Greens= +5.0%
AfD=      -2.5%
Linke= -6.6%

[NOVA Green]

Another Green flip:

274- Heidelberg  (Baden-Wurttemberg)     CDU> Green

CDU=    -8,6%
SPD=     -5.9%
Greens=  +13.5%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's a definite pattern of Green constituency victories in 'nice' smaller cities.

[NOVA Green]

Weird & Interesting and perhaps someone can explain....

55- Bremen II-    Bremerhaven

SPD holds-      +3.0%
CDU         =    -4.9%
Linke        =    -4.1%
Greens     =     +6.9%
AfD          =     -2.6%
FDP         =      -0.7%
Others     =      +6.1%


Where did the AfD voters go between '17 and '21?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There's a definite pattern of Green constituency victories in 'nice' smaller cities.

Could this be linked with inter-migration within Germany, on part of those below 30?

[Logical]

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
SPD 29.1% (+14)
AFD 18% (-0.6)
CDU 17.4% (-15.7)
LINKE 11.1% (-6.8 )
FDP 8.2% (+2)
Greens 7.8% (+3.6)

Worst CDU loss in a state. Never say Merkel's coattails aren't real.

[Yeahsayyeah]

There's a definite pattern of Green constituency victories in 'nice' smaller cities.

Could this be linked with inter-migration within Germany, on part of those below 30?

Most of them are univesity cities.

[Nyvin]

Is FDP joining a coalition with SPD something they're open to or what happens if they refuse?

[NOVA Green]

There's a definite pattern of Green constituency victories in 'nice' smaller cities.

Yeah--- that's part of the reason when I first jumped on with results coming in I asked if we had any results yet from Baden Wurtemmberg, figuring that this was a Province where the Greens couldn't definitely place quite well.

HOWEVER---- I just saw the results come through from Tubingen and was a bit bummed thinking this could be another Green pickup:

1st Vote:

CDU-      27.0%     (-8.7%)
SPD-      18.2%     (+0.9%)
Greens-  25.7%     (+6.6%)
FDP-       9.4%      (+1.5%)
AfD-       7.8%       (-0.8%)
Linke-    4.7%        (-4.0%)
Others-  7,3%        (+7.3%)

2nd vote:

CDU-    21.8%
SPD-    20.4%
Greens- 23.4%
FDP-     14.2%
AfD-       7.9%
Linke      5.2%
Others    7.2%

[brucejoel99]

Is FDP joining a coalition with SPD something they're open to or what happens if they refuse?

They're open to it & will enter into negotiations. If they refuse, then probably Jamaica &/or GroKo negotiations.

[mileslunn]

Anyone have exit polls that give demographic breakdown of how votes were by age and by gender as well as if asked income?

[Oryxslayer]

Is FDP joining a coalition with SPD something they're open to or what happens if they refuse?

They're open to it & will enter into negotiations. If they refuse, then probably Jamaica &/or GroKo negotiations.

Germany is in this weird situation where the victorious party lacks options and can't force their allies hands, and their potential allies are not all set on supporting the SPD. R2G is in the dumpster, and GroKo v2 has been refused by the Union. The partners, FDP and the Greens, have more leverage since they have the option of walking away from the SPD and proping up the union, despite how it would bend a bunch of German political traditions. So unless the SPD capitulates instantly in negotiations, I bet it goes:

- Traffic light negotiations begin.
- FDP ends negotiations after it hits some red line.
- Jamaica negotiations begin to gain traction.
- SPD capitulates, Greens and FDP come back to the table and exact far more concessions than the SPD would like.
- Traffic Light government formed, but the SPD is unhappy.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Anyone have exit polls that give demographic breakdown of how votes were by age and by gender as well as if asked income?

Age
https://www.tagesschau.de/wahl/archiv/2021-09-26-BT-DE/umfrage-alter.shtml

Employment groups
https://www.tagesschau.de/wahl/archiv/2021-09-26-BT-DE/umfrage-job.shtml
Selbständige = self-employed
Arbeiter = Workers
Arbeitslose= unemployed
Angestellte = white collar workers
Rentner =pensioners

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Can the FDP leader be the Chancellor in some grand coalition

no

Apparently the FDP leader once tried to run as a Chancellor candidate. It was treated with as much seriousness as it deserved.

Project 18 and Westerwelle was the high point of german politics. It's been downhill since.

[Devout Centrist]

Is FDP joining a coalition with SPD something they're open to or what happens if they refuse?

They're open to it & will enter into negotiations. If they refuse, then probably Jamaica &/or GroKo negotiations.

Germany is in this weird situation where the victorious party lacks options and can't force their allies hands, and their potential allies are not all set on supporting the SPD. R2G is in the dumpster, and GroKo v2 has been refused by the Union. The partners, FDP and the Greens, have more leverage since they could walk away from the SPD and prop up the union, despite how it would bend a bunch of German political traditions.

There's little appetite among Green voters to work with Union, though. I don't see how Laschet has a path forward with them.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Back home from our party now, and it feels awesome to be a member of the strongest political force in Germany.

Everything depends now on FDP and Greens, and I predict it won't be that easy since both of thrm have difference preferences between SPD and CDU. Interestingly, I spoke with a bunch of Greens since they had their election night party in the same restaurant, and all of them wanted to enter a trafficlight coalition and not Jamaica.

Did you speak to any FDP members or was thier party at a venue to expensive for you to enter ?

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Useless coverage from certain overseas news sources. For one thing, topping the national vote isn't really a 'victory' under this kind of electoral system, unless it's an overall majority.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Is it plausible the FDP and CDU might withdraw their candidates in Berlin Linkie mandates and instruct their voters to vote for either the green or social-democratic candidate depend on who's in the lead in order to get Linke kicked out of parliament altogether?

[NOVA Green]

Bunch more recent flips since my last update:

67: Borde-Jerichower Land   (Sachsen-Anhalt)          CDU>SPD
1:   Flensburg-Holstein         (Schleswig-Holstein)     CDU>Green   

    *** This was the constituency in the Far North which Hades had painted Green in his map from a few hrs ago  ***

8: Segeberg-Stormarn-Mitte   (Schleswig-Holstein)   CDU>SPD

4: Rendsburg-Eckernforde      (Schleswig-Holstein)   CDU>SPD

9: Ostholstein- Stormarn-Nord (Schleswig-Holstein)   CDU>SPD 

10: Herzogtum-Lauenburg-Stormarn-Sud (Schleswig-Holstein)   CDU>SPD 

56: Prignitz-Ost Prignitz- Ruppin- Havelland I (Brandenburg)   CDU>SPD 

6: Plon- Nuemunster  (Schleswig-Holstein)   CDU>SPD 

94: Koln II  (NRW)  CDU>GREEN (!!!)

17: Mecklenburgeriche- Seenplatte II- Landkreis Rostock III  (Mecklenburg-Vorpommen)        CDU>SPD 

[NOVA Green]

What happened to the CDU in Schleswig-Holstein?

Honestly the extent of their collapse between '17 and '21 is pretty dramatic...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What happened to the CDU in Schleswig-Holstein?

Honestly the extent of their collapse between '17 and '21 is pretty dramatic...

Pretty common for the lead party to pull off a near-sweep of constituencies: most are quite fine balances of different elements and incumbents are less 'sticky' than in (say) NRW.

[NOVA Green]

What happened to the CDU in Schleswig-Holstein?

Honestly the extent of their collapse between '17 and '21 is pretty dramatic...

Pretty common for the lead party to pull off a near-sweep of constituencies: most are quite fine balances of different elements and incumbents are less 'sticky' than in (say) NRW.

Greens seem to have performed extremely well in Schleswig-Holstein as well, and sure I know there was a rural region which had a big impact as part of the AKW NSB, where Nuclear Energy issues pushed many more traditional rural voters of a certain generation to be receptive to Green politics.

[brucejoel99]

Is FDP joining a coalition with SPD something they're open to or what happens if they refuse?

They're open to it & will enter into negotiations. If they refuse, then probably Jamaica &/or GroKo negotiations.

Germany is in this weird situation where the victorious party lacks options and can't force their allies hands, and their potential allies are not all set on supporting the SPD. R2G is in the dumpster, and GroKo v2 has been refused by the Union. The partners, FDP and the Greens, have more leverage since they have the option of walking away from the SPD and proping up the union, despite how it would bend a bunch of German political traditions. So unless the SPD capitulates instantly in negotiations, I bet it goes:

- Traffic light negotiations begin.
- FDP ends negotiations after it hits some red line.
- Jamaica negotiations begin to gain traction.
- SPD capitulates, Greens and FDP come back to the table and exact far more concessions than the SPD would like.
- Traffic Light government formed, but the SPD is unhappy.

As the SPD was vehemently doing at this point in time 4 years ago. Never say never when it comes to GroKos. If traffic-light/Jamaica negotiations fail & the only options left are GroKo, a snap election, & a minority government, GroKo happens.

[Astatine]

Is it plausible the FDP and CDU might withdraw their candidates in Berlin Linkie mandates and instruct their voters to vote for either the green or social-democratic candidate depend on who's in the lead in order to get Linke kicked out of parliament altogether?

eh no