🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Yeahsayyeah]

Linkie get's sh**t because it has elected stasi members and has numerous members who countinue to defend the human rights record of GDR, the rest of the parties don't.

To get more into details (although I'm not sure, weither I really should do this, but alas:

"Stasi" is old, even as a scapegoat. Even the Union parties who, while in disarray, desperately try to revive the "red socks" campaign to stoke fear of a red-red-green coalition or collaboration don't use this particular angle. As others have already pointed out, all parties had and probably still have people in their ranks who worked for the Stasi. CDU and FDP inherited the bloc parties. Greens came from the  densely policed civil rights and environmental activist milieu. And many important east German SPD people were clergymen and -women which was one of the occupation group under most strict surveillance. Of course, the security organs wanted people, there.

On a side note, singling out the Stasi as a symbol of the political opression and authoritarianism, was politically comfortable for all political parties in 1990. SPD and Greens, because they often had been really opressed by the apparatus, and PDS, CDU and FDP as they could externalise a lot of the potential discussion of political responsibility in the GDR.

The Left and the PDS as one of its predecessor has condemned the state crimes of the GDR, many times. And today, a majority of their members is in West Germany. And most of their parliament faction weren't in any position of larger responsibility. Of course, they still get their shots fired on them in the highly charged symbolic debates, that are sometimes launched to win cheap political points like the "Unrechtsstaat" debate. And even than i can't think of one active politician who "defends the human rights record of the GDR". The one, I can think of, was the DKP member they once had on an open list, I think, in Lower Saxony, but that was probably a decade ago? And she was a nurse, she wasn't good at selling her point and was pushed to absurd positions by suggestive and loaded questions.

Yes, there are elements in the party who are at least a bit indifferent towards the GDR state crimes, but a large part of that is siege mentality in both parts and Germany and, beyond that, a bit of a reflex on the "Wende" shock and misguided nostalgia in the East, that doesn't have any influence on the policies of the party. And it is a dying breed as this is clearly a generational thing. You have to be 40 or possibly older to really have any political rememberance of the GDR. As mostly those SED members stayed in the PDS that wanted to give a reformed, democratic socialism another try, the reactionary die-hard and unrepellent uncreconstructed communists mostly left as "this wasn't really their party anymore".

[Yeahsayyeah]

To add, the most sh**t the Left gets today is beause they want less wars, more distribution of wealth, and tackle climate change.

[WMS]

I am more concerned with Die Linke’s pro-Russian, anti-NATO stance than their past failings. Supporting Vladimir Putin’s regime doesn’t exactly give one confidence in their support for democracy.

They are clearly anti-NATO. That doesn't mean, they are "pro-Putin". The AfD on the other hand is officially pro-NATO and "pro-Putin" at the same time. And for the SPD the most important thing is, that the gas pipline through the Baltic Sea gets completed and started.

Well from Wikipedia:

The party calls for a replacement of NATO with a collective security system including Russia as a member country.

The Left would have all American military bases within Germany, and if possible in the European Union, enacted within a binding treaty, dissolved.

However, Gysi has noted that "older" elements of the party have a strong penchant for Russia and the Soviet Union.

Some members of the party (like MP Andrej Hunko) are strong supporters of the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic.

Not encouraging on that front.

Of course the AfD is worse. And did you mean the CDU in the comment about the gas pipeline?*

*The policy of shutting down nuclear, ramping up coal, and heavily increasing German dependence on Russian natural gas strikes me as batsh!t insane on every level, but you do you, Germany.

[Yeahsayyeah]

And as someone who does vote for the legal successor to my own Eastern Bloc country's communist party and who has some personal ties to that social milieu, I like to occasionally poke fun in my own way at the political tradition I effectively support

I wasn't aware of that, so nevermind. You still should probably stop that, as in Germanyit is a typical talking point of self-righteous right wingers to point out this connection every time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Eh. After a certain point it will be like people in Ireland who do not like Fine Gael referring to the party as 'the blueshirts'.

[Yeahsayyeah]

And did you mean the CDU in the comment about the gas pipeline?*

I meant the SPD as chancellor Gerhard Schröder was a main initiator of the project and the SPD-led state government of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern now even founded a foundation to, they call "environment foundation" to make PR for the project. But yeah, the only major party really against this project are the Greens.

On the other things, maybe from an US American perspective on a "new cold war" angle, every leap that would reduce the military influence of the US in Germany is "pro Russian". But that is not really the way, German-Russian relations are thought of, here. In fact, US interests and European/German interests not necessarily align, in this field.

In theory I would prefer a pan-European collective security system (and a European defense strategy) including Russia to the NATO-Russia confronation, we have today. But that's clearly not a realistic approach as Russia in the era of Putin clearly is not acting in good faith.

And for the russophilia, well, there had been strong connections between East Germany and Russia for forty-five years, of course this has an influence on how people here view Russia or think, they understand Russia. In fact, for the middle-aged and older generations, here, the US are much more alien and "un-European" than Russia. So, it doesn't strike me as odd, that parties who would have a huge chunk of their voter base in the East reflect this a bit. What strikes me as odd, is that the west German right-wing-conservatives who for two generations feared "the Russian in front of their door" are reviving the old German conservative russophilia of the Kaiserreich, too.

BTW, coal isn't ramped up in Germany, instead it's renewables and yes, pitifully, partly also natural gas.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Eh. After a certain point it will be like people in Ireland who do not like Fine Gael referring to the party as 'the blueshirts'.

This particular name is reserved for the AfD, though. Well, historically it was the FDJ, maybe I can start helping reconnotate it. On the other hand, an increasing amount of people is referring to the AfD as "Die Blaunen" (the "blue-browns") and as AgD (Alternative gegen Deutschland/ Alliance against Germany).

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Currently watching "Kannste Kanzleramt?" which translates roughly as "Do you know the Chancellory?", a pre-filmed TV show where the three candidates have to go into a classroom and answer questions from teenagers and explain their policies, why they are running, what they want to do, etc. in language that teenagers can understand.

If you're like me and your German is not ~the best~, you can watch it here for free and also they have subtitles in German: https://www.sat1.de/tv/bundestagswahl/kannste-kanzleramt-im-livestream

[WMS]

And did you mean the CDU in the comment about the gas pipeline?*

I meant the SPD as chancellor Gerhard Schröder was a main initiator of the project and the SPD-led state government of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern now even founded a foundation to, they call "environment foundation" to make PR for the project. But yeah, the only major party really against this project are the Greens.

On the other things, maybe from an US American perspective on a "new cold war" angle, every leap that would reduce the military influence of the US in Germany is "pro Russian". But that is not really the way, German-Russian relations are thought of, here. In fact, US interests and European/German interests not necessarily align, in this field.

In theory I would prefer a pan-European collective security system (and a European defense strategy) including Russia to the NATO-Russia confronation, we have today. But that's clearly not a realistic approach as Russia in the era of Putin clearly is not acting in good faith.

And for the russophilia, well, there had been strong connections between East Germany and Russia for forty-five years, of course this has an influence on how people here view Russia or think, they understand Russia. In fact, for the middle-aged and older generations, here, the US are much more alien and "un-European" than Russia. So, it doesn't strike me as odd, that parties who would have a huge chunk of their voter base in the East reflect this a bit. What strikes me as odd, is that the west German right-wing-conservatives who for two generations feared "the Russian in front of their door" are reviving the old German conservative russophilia of the Kaiserreich, too.

BTW, coal isn't ramped up in Germany, instead it's renewables and yes, pitifully, partly also natural gas.

Schröder I’ve covered elsewhere so no need to rehash that. And I am greatly enjoying Green foreign policy at the moment.

Reduce? Hell, Die Linke wants to permanently remove the American military presence from all of Europe! While inviting the Russians in! That’s pretty pro-Russian.

I am quite aware that Germany has, via Nord Stream and other means, pushed its own interests* ahead of anyone else’s when it comes to Russia, often by selling out the interests of all the countries in between Germany and Russia. As long as German investments in Russia aren’t touched and Russian gas supplies to Germany flow unimpeded, the German state doesn’t care much about what Russia does to its east.

*European interests and German interests are not one and the same.

Ah, you’d prefer a structure that “keeps the Russians in, the Americans out, and the Poles down”?

‘Not acting in good faith’ well, tell me which country has invaded and annexed the territory of another sovereign country recently? Not to mention all the Russian puppet states they’ve carved out of their neighbors?

Not surprised about the West German right-wing conservatives moving in a pro-Russian direction: authoritarians gonna be authoritarians.

I was going off of what Asatine has to say about German energy policy. Shutting down the nuclear plants before developing the renewable alternatives…

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Eh. After a certain point it will be like people in Ireland who do not like Fine Gael referring to the party as 'the blueshirts'.

This particular name is reserved for the AfD, though. Well, historically it was the FDJ, maybe I can start helping reconnotate it. On the other hand, an increasing amount of people is referring to the AfD as "Die Blaunen" (the "blue-browns") and as AgD (Alternative gegen Deutschland/ Alliance against Germany).

Ah, no, it isn't about the colour. One of the parties that merged to form Fine Gael was the Blueshirts, Ireland's cartoonishly incompetent interwar fascist movement. Is Fine Gael today a fascist party? Absolutely not, but it's still a fun jibe for people who dislike the party.

[President Johnson]

Currently watching "Kannste Kanzleramt?" which translates roughly as "Do you know the Chancellory?", a pre-filmed TV show where the three candidates have to go into a classroom and answer questions from teenagers and explain their policies, why they are running, what they want to do, etc. in language that teenagers can understand.

If you're like me and your German is not ~the best~, you can watch it here for free and also they have subtitles in German: https://www.sat1.de/tv/bundestagswahl/kannste-kanzleramt-im-livestream

I'd translate it into "Are you up to the chancellorship?". Kanzleramt can both mean Chancellorship or Chancellery. The German kann has different meanings in English. But thanks for posting this one.

[buritobr]

According to the average of the most recent polls, the possible coalitions are:

SPD-CDU/CSU-Grüne (Kenia)
SPD-CDU/CSU-FDP (Germany)
SPD-FDP-Grüne (Traffic lights)
SPD-Grüne-Linke (2red-green)
and, very close, SPD-CDU/CSU (Grand coalition)

Is the traffic lights coalition the outcome that has the biggest probability?
Would the CDU/CSU join a coalition without being the head?

We know that the probability of the 2red-green coalition is low because even some social democrats and greens dislike this coalition. But if the 2red-green really have >50% of the Bundestag, could the SPD use this possibility as a bargain power in order to make the FDP accept the Traffic lights?

If the SPD wins a plurality and the 2red-green have >50% but the Jamaica also have >50%, would the green base accept the Jamaica?

[njwes]

I haven't looked at this thread in a whiiiiile--is SSW still on track to maybe get seats?

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

We know that the probability of the 2red-green coalition is low because even some social democrats and greens dislike this coalition. But if the 2red-green really have >50% of the Bundestag, could the SPD use this possibility as a bargain power in order to make the FDP accept the Traffic lights?

If the SPD wins a plurality and the 2red-green have >50% but the Jamaica also have >50%, would the green base accept the Jamaica?

If the current trend holds and personal approval ratings do not fundamentally change, FDP and Greens would have a very, very hard time justifying making Laschet the next chancellor.

[sirius3100]

I haven't looked at this thread in a whiiiiile--is SSW still on track to maybe get seats?

There haven't been any polls that mentioned them, but going by results from state elections I would say 1 seat is very likely (2 seats are unlikely, but not Impossible especially in a large Bundestag)

[H. Ross Peron]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/08/olaf-scholz-merit-society-not-be-limited-top-earners-germany-election

Nice article in The Guardian about Olaf Scholz, his current take on the world, and the SPD campaign centered around "Competence for Germany. Respect for you and your life".

In a wide-ranging interview with the Guardian, Scholz said he would also use the political victory within his reach to kickstart a fresh debate about how to redefine professional and social merit.

“Why did Britain vote for Brexit if it was against its own interest? Why did America vote for Trump? I believe it is because people are experiencing deep social insecurities, and lack appreciation for what they do,” the 63-year-old said before a campaign rally in the university city of Göttingen, in Lower Saxony.

“We see the same dissatisfaction and insecurity not just in the US or the UK but in the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Austria or Germany – countries that may look from the outside like they don’t have any problems at all.

“Among certain professional classes, there is a meritocratic exuberance that has led people to believe their success is completely self-made. As a result, those who actually keep the show on the road don’t get the respect they deserve. That has to change.”

Centred around the word “respect”, Scholz’s campaign borrows heavily from Harvard philosopher Michael Sandel’s recent writings on the “tyranny of merit”, and he told the Guardian he had been left “shaken” after reading the British sociologist Michael Young’s 1958 book The Rise of Meritocracy.

“He [Young] described the rise of meritocracy as a dystopian satire of the year 2034, but it has turned out to be an almost prophetic description of the trends of our time,” Scholz said.

Thinkers such as Sandel or Daniel Markovits argue that meritocracy – a political system that aims to reward individuals on the basis of talent, effort, and achievement – has come to be dominated by educated knowledge workers who define merit solely along their own value sets and neglect to credit physical forms of labour.

“There is nothing wrong about merit as such,” Scholz said. “But it is something that must not only be limited to top-earners and those with university degrees. A security guard has merit too. Manual labourers don’t deserve less respect than academics.”

And whether “respect” can become a coherent policy as well as a catchphrase remains unclear. “We have two tasks,” Scholz said. “Recognise these other types of merit on the one hand, and pay better wages for those who are not appropriately compensated on the other. A higher minimum wage is important, as are better wages for carers and skilled workers.”

Some of Scholz’s campaign pledges are social democratic in the old-fashioned sense: as well as the minimum wage increase to €12 an hour, he calls for the return of a wealth tax and the construction of 400,000 new homes a year. The SPD proposes replacing the sanction-tied Hartz IV unemployment benefit controversially introduced by the last centre-left government with a new, less “distrustful” welfare programme, called “citizens’ money”.

“Maybe progressive parties in Europe and the USA have for too long neglected to tackle these two big challenges,” Scholz said. As models for renewing the left, he points not to the Democratic party of the US president, Joe Biden, but social democratic parties in Sweden, Denmark and Finland.

The SPD candidate’s project to reinvigorate the German centre-left remains a balancing act: for while his campaign at least partially reverses out of the rhetoric of the third way, it also seeks to steal the crown of economic competence from the centre-right CDU.

Great article that shows that the SPD is seeking to return to its working class roots. Always appreciate it too when a politician demonstrates he or she reads political philosophers and thinkers like Sandel etc. I guess it remains to be seen if the voters who swing to SPD will be disproportionately working class or otherwise.

[Astatine]

A local party chairman was interviewed by SPIEGEL on why there are no Laschet posters in his town, and the interview is just... hilarious:

SPIEGEL: Why haven't you hung up the posters yet?

Reply: Armin Laschet is not the candidate for Chancellor to bring the country forward. He represents the continuity of Chancellor Merkel, to not name the issues and just follow the zeitgeist, to not offend anyone politically. That can just go wrong. It was a remarkably wrong decision to nominate him.

SPIEGEL: The CDU chairboard decided to nominate Laschet as candidate for Chancellor. Doesn't that matter to you?

Reply: The federal chairboard should be sent packing after the election loss. It made a decision severely harming the party. [...] Nobody listened to the base. With Mr. Söder, we'd have better chances for the Chancellorship. With the time being, our non-professional evaluation of the situation was confirmed, unfortunately. [...]

SPIEGEL: What can CDU/CSU still do to avoid an election loss?

Reply: Nothing.

(https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/armin-laschet-auf-cdu-plakaten-im-muell-landen-sie-nicht-wir-haengen-sie-nur-nicht-auf-a-e67f7bb4-b2ea-4a91-9b14-abc9bbae9810)

[Lechasseur]

A local party chairman was interviewed by SPIEGEL on why there are no Laschet posters in his town, and the interview is just... hilarious:

SPIEGEL: Why haven't you hung up the posters yet?

Reply: Armin Laschet is not the candidate for Chancellor to bring the country forward. He represents the continuity of Chancellor Merkel, to not name the issues and just follow the zeitgeist, to not offend anyone politically. That can just go wrong. It was a remarkably wrong decision to nominate him.

SPIEGEL: The CDU chairboard decided to nominate Laschet as candidate for Chancellor. Doesn't that matter to you?

Reply: The federal chairboard should be sent packing after the election loss. It made a decision severely harming the party. [...] Nobody listened to the base. With Mr. Söder, we'd have better chances for the Chancellorship. With the time being, our non-professional evaluation of the situation was confirmed, unfortunately. [...]

SPIEGEL: What can CDU/CSU still do to avoid an election loss?

Reply: Nothing.

(https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/armin-laschet-auf-cdu-plakaten-im-muell-landen-sie-nicht-wir-haengen-sie-nur-nicht-auf-a-e67f7bb4-b2ea-4a91-9b14-abc9bbae9810)

Tbf he didn't say anything wrong there. That all sounds pretty correct to me.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I wonder is there is just a little evil voice in Scholz's head that's suggesting reviving the grand coalition but with CDU doing submissive duty. Would almost certainly backfire but wouldn't it be so tempting?

[President Johnson]

I wonder is there is just a little evil voice in Scholz's head that's suggesting reviving the grand coalition but with CDU doing submissive duty. Would almost certainly backfire but wouldn't it be so tempting?

No, he made it very clear that he wants the CDU/CSU in opposition and a recent poll found that 56% of Germans want the same. It's obvious he wants a trafficlight coalition.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Congrats, Laschet.


https://www.dw.com/en/german-election-olaf-scholz-pressured-over-money-laundering-probe/a-59147944

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Don't think we noted the latest Trend poll of Hamburg, btw:

SPD 34 (+10 from 2017 / +6 from last poll)
Green 17 (+3 / -2)
CDU 15 (-12 / -2)
FDP 13 (+2 / -1)
SED 10 (-2 / +1)
AfD 7 (-1 / =)
Others 5 (= / -1)

Scholzistan. I wonder if the SPD can keep squeezing the other parties enough to start flirting with 2005 levels in the city.

[Astatine]

Congrats, Laschet.


https://www.dw.com/en/german-election-olaf-scholz-pressured-over-money-laundering-probe/a-59147944

As of now, I am still skeptical that this incident will derail Scholz' campaign, but I could see the unstoppable surge coming to an end and SPD stabilizing at ~25 % unless some more scandals break out.

[Mike88]

Congrats, Laschet.


https://www.dw.com/en/german-election-olaf-scholz-pressured-over-money-laundering-probe/a-59147944

As of now, I am still skeptical that this incident will derail Scholz' campaign, but I could see the unstoppable surge coming to an end and SPD stabilizing at ~25 % unless some more scandals break out.

I posted yesterday about that, and said CDU/CSU attacking Scholz on this would be complicated. I mean, at the end of the day Scholz was a minister in a government headed by a CDU/CSU chancellor.

[buritobr]

When a scandal against a candidate is discovered only during the election time, the misconduct of the candidate usually was not so big. If it were, probably it would have been discovered before. Scandals discovered during election time are usually stories that use some true facts in order to try to build a narrative that the candidate had a very damaging misconduct.