2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose

[Roll Roons]

So it looks like the freshmen seniority order will be as follows:
1. Blackburn (former Rep for 16 yrs)
2. Sinema (former Rep for 6 yrs)
3. Cramer (former Rep for 6 yrs)
4. McSally (former Rep for 4 yrs)
5. Rosen (former Rep for 2 yrs)
6. Scott (former Gov)
7. Romney (former Gov)
8. Braun
9. Hawley

[Roll Roons]

He should've appointed a placeholder and leave Republican voters to decide who will be the person  they want to defend this seat.
Appointing a loser only a few weeks after she lost, is indeed a huge middle finger to the electorate.

Ducey hasn't given up his own asperations to get to the Senate after finishing his 2nd Term as Governor.

He has some Options now especially if McSally loses in 2020. He could then run in 2022 or run against Sinema in 2024.

It's getting harder every year with Arizona fast moving to the left.

Not for a Popular Governor like Ducey.

Everyone said it would be hard for Rick Scott to beat Bill Nelson. He's now a Senator-elect and AZ is still more Republican than Florida is.

I can see Ducey running in 2022 when his Term is up if McSally loses in 2020. If she wins he could run against Sinema.

Florida is moving to the right.

Arizona is moving to the left.

Doesn't matter if you're Popular.

If you look back. Since the 2008 Elections Democratic Governors, Republican Governors and Purple State Governors alike have a very high success rate getting elected.

Governor Mark Warner (now a Senator)
Governor Tim Kaine (now a Senator)
Governor Jeanne Shaheen (now a Senator)
Governor Maggie Hassan (now a Senator)
Governor Angus King (now a Senator)
Governor Mike Rounds (now a Senator)
Governor John Hoeven (now a Senator)
Governor Rick Scott (now a Senator)

and that's just a few. The Senate itself has a lot of former Governors right now.

There are also a bunch that have tried and failed. Jim Gilmore, George Allen, Bob Kerrey, Linda Lingle, Evan Bayh, Tommy Thompson, Phil Bredesen, Ted Strickland, Charlie Crist, Ronnie Musgrove, Mike Castle. Though I agree Ducey wold have a good chance because he's popular and sitting governors have a much higher success rate than former ones.

[Roll Roons]

Identifying good candidates is quite literally the only thing Schumer is good at.

This is sincere, right? Who has he drafted previously?

I assume Schumer had something to do with Jones, Sinema, Bredesen and Beto. Even Rosen wasn't bad, despite what Atlas says, but Harry Reid was the one who found her.

[Roll Roons]

Identifying good candidates is quite literally the only thing Schumer is good at.

This is sincere, right? Who has he drafted previously?

He has been the brains behind most of the party's A+ recruits since he led the DSCC in 2006. From what I've heard, he essentially recruited Bredesen single-handedly (which made Bredesen's ridiculous vow to oppose him as leader even more absurd). He should be permanent DSCC leader imo, somebody tougher and more skilled at legislating should be leader.

Yeah, Bredesen was such a star recruit he lost by 10 points.

But he still forced Republicans to spend money in a normally safe state. Money that could have gone to West Virginia or Montana.

[Roll Roons]

McSally really doesn't want to be a Senator any more

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1131665578811371520

Is she intentionally trying to lose or what?

Maybe she's been set up to take the fall in 2020 so Ducey can run for the seat against Kelly in 2022.

[Roll Roons]

Paul Gosar

Would lose in a landslide the instant his ties to actual European Nazis is breathed to the press.

Does he actually have those ties?

Unfortunately, yes. He, Andy Harris, Steve King, and one other dude made a few certain friends on a trip to Europe (I think it was Hungary, specifically) not too long ago.

It was those three and rather unsurprisingly, Gohmert and Rohrabacher.

[Roll Roons]

I refuse to believe Martha McSally is this bad at politics. She's clearly an undercover Democrat.

This is the only possible explanation

I feel like her political skills have really dropped off a cliff since she got appointed to this seat. Though maybe she was never actually that strong and just coasted by on her bio. Or the first name is just cursed.

[Roll Roons]

It's amazing how much she's debased herself. She seemed so impressive in 2014.

[Roll Roons]

Serious question:  why did Ducey appoint this idiot?

Arizona's GOP bench is surprisingly weak. The remaining members of the congressional delegation are all either far-right lunatics (Lesko, Biggs, Gosar) or are bogged down by ethics issues (Schweikert).

I think his logic was that she could take the L this year, allowing him to take the seat back in 2022. We'll see if his approval recovers by then.

[Roll Roons]

Have we gotten Q3 fundraising numbers from either of them?

[Roll Roons]

How the hell did she win twice in a swingy House district if her political instincts are this terrible?

[Roll Roons]

How the hell did she win twice in a swingy House district if her political instincts are this terrible?

She did lose in 2012 despite Mitt Romney winning the district by two points. I don't think she's ever demonstrated significant appeal, within her party or to the broader electorate.

She also won by 14 in 2016, albeit over a weak opponent, while Hillary carried her district by 5. I think she has genuinely gotten weaker.