Ontario 2018 election

[lilTommy]

https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/IRG36-Tracking-pre-test-Wave-2-.pdf

I really enjoy these Value Clusters:

NDP have increase, increased! there vote among Core Left (52% +5) and Left Liberals (45% +7). Also interesting is that the NDP has seen increase among Business Liberals (24% +4), which also saw a sharp decline for the PCs (29% -8) and Increase for the OLP (43% +6)

[lilTommy]

Really Interesting discussion here

https://tvo.org/video/programs/the-agenda-with-steve-paikin/the-changing-minds-of-ontario-voters

Erin Kelly of Advanced Symbolics on their polling
14 ridings that the NDP needs to win, and can swing the NDP to gov't, only need a 5 point swing of PC voters to the NDP. NONE are named but Bay of Quinte, which is now described as PCvsNDP seat.

[lilTommy]

I don't think people are talking enough about Bay of Quinte as a possible NDP pick up. During the federal election, it was a 3-way race until the Liberal surge.

In spite of your optimism, I beg to differ.

2015 Federal Election results
Neil Ellis - Liberal - 29281   - 50.70%
Jodie Jenkins - Conservative - 19781    - 34.30%
Terry Cassidy - NDP - 7001 - 12.10%

If the NDP actually won Bay of Quinte, they would probably be looking at 100+ MPPs.   

Not necessarily a better way to look at it is look what the Tories got.  Provincewide they got 35.1% in the last federal election which is not far off what they are polling now so if the 65.7% who voted for progressive parties went mostly NDP they could win here.  Off course PCs have an incumbent MPP which probably helps a bit.

If you look at the 2014 transposed results (courtesy of electionprediction.org) PC had 39%, Liberals 38% and NDP 17%.  While that still means that there is a potential majority against the Tories, it's a huge leap to assume that ALL of these Liberal voters (in a reasonably conservative area of Ontario) would suddenly jump in bed with the NDP.  If even 25% of the Liberal voters chose the PC (or if a minority of the former Liberal voters just abstained), the Tories would hold the seat.

I could more easily imagine the Liberals potentially winning Bay of Quinte, by getting all the anti-PC vote, but not right now when they are in a freefall.

If we look at the Innovative Research poll
https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/IRG36-Tracking-pre-test-Wave-2-.pdf

among the OLP, 50% have the NDP as second choice, and only 12% have the PCs as second.
There are PC-NDP voters, Innovative here has it as about 8%.
But if the PC is losing votes, as Forum has it, from 40% - 33%, that has to be seen in riding's like this. So I can see, that Yes this riding is becoming a battleground because of a number of factors (OLP collapse, PC trending down, popular NDP leader/policies)

[lilTommy]

I don't think people are talking enough about Bay of Quinte as a possible NDP pick up. During the federal election, it was a 3-way race until the Liberal surge.

In spite of your optimism, I beg to differ.

2015 Federal Election results
Neil Ellis - Liberal - 29281   - 50.70%
Jodie Jenkins - Conservative - 19781    - 34.30%
Terry Cassidy - NDP - 7001 - 12.10%

If the NDP actually won Bay of Quinte, they would probably be looking at 100+ MPPs.   

I'm sorry, which polling firm do you work for again? I said before the surge. There were a lot of ridings the NDP was competitive in when they were leading the polls that totally evaporated in the month before the federal election.

I heard you the first time, but 12.1% before, or after the surge is still just 12.1%.  And in my book, to move votes from 12.1% to 45-50% in unison takes something extraordinary, something I do not yet see in this election.  We will agree to disagree here.

What gave you the impression that I work for a polling firm?

But lets look at the context of 2011 vs 2015

NDP - 23%/12%  -11
Liberal - 20%/50% +30
Cons - 52%/34% - 18

Big shifts can happen here, its not out of scope to say the NDP can win here now when in 2015 the Liberals went from third to winning and gaining 30%. The NDP momentum now is not that far off of the Trudeau momentum in 2015.

[lilTommy]

Debate:

Wynne; much better performance, but odd with the `Sorry, not Sorry`comment, that`s the desperation talking. She had to either own her record and the entire Liberal one or continue as she has been by saying were not perfect but please vote for me. She tried to do both, she fails to understand that people don`t like her because she is the Liberal leader of a government going on 15 years. It`s less her as a person and more her as the Liberal premier. Performed well but was the union/worker basher? for someone who was courting unions hard last time, she turned her back now. I thought Andrea did well (not great) on that exchange. much better then the first two debates, I think she stopped the bleeding, I think die hards who were starting to worry will stick with them, so around 20-24% I'd say is where they will end.

Ford; Terrible, just terrible. He can barely form a coherent argument without falling apart into crass fear mongering and lies. He has not adapted his campaign to the new reality of this being mostly a PC/NDP battle, so he's stuck in poor campaigning. Having said that, if you were sold on a Ford PC lead gov't before, nothing changed now. I think some parked Change vote might move away from him given his "sky is falling over the NDP" and blatant rich man "ask you boss who to vote for" comments and still no.costed.plan! for someone who is suppose to be the fiscal conservative here, he's not showing it.

Horwath; Good, but not as great as the first two. Much more fire-in-her-belly, but that might be in response the being the target. un-phased after Ford stole her line... which made me LOL. No death blow against her, but also no real major blows against anyone else. Was held pretty much on message which is a win for her. 

[lilTommy]

How is everyone planning to vote? (Or "vote" if not from Ontario.)

Party for People with Special Needs sounds great but sadly they only have five candidates. If we limit it to parties with full or near full slates, I think I'd have to vote *gulps* Libertarian.

I voted in the Advances, for the NDP here in Spadina-Fort York. This is a solid riding where my (and my partner who voted NDP as well) vote can really help swing this to the NDP (were a new riding)

[lilTommy]

The moment this country/province chooses a new electoral system, likely something more akin to MMP (since people like the idea of local candidates) the Conservatives/PCs will split. Just as mentioned above, the more right-wing faction and the more centre-right will form separate parties, but likely work together.

Any way, yes electoral reform is in the NDP platform this year. Odd how it hasn't been mentioned, but this election hasn't been one where this has come up yet, unfortunately.

[lilTommy]

Some interesting riding polls today from Mainstreet. Results aren't too surprising, kind of re-affirms what I've been thinking.

Can someone provide these riding polls?

[lilTommy]

Can someone provide these riding polls?

They're encouraging if you're a Conservative.

PCs leading in the DVE and DVN, blowout in Mississauga-Lakeshore.

Even Brampton only looks OK from an NDP point of view.  West and North they're neck in neck with the PCs, South PCs are leading.

The NDP is well ahead in Kingston - but that was never going PC anyway.

Sousa is losing...in a blowout? There goes one of my predictions !

me too... so much fo Hazel's endorsement there.

Ahhh, any links!? details man! Any Southwest seats? SpaFY? UniRose? TorCen?

[lilTommy]

Mainstreet has 39/37/16, Ford leads by 10 in 905, Horwath by 12 in 416.

The NDP at 40% in toronto?! Ya, if that holds true, the Liberals will be lucky if anyone holds their seats, the NDP vote will be strong enough to allow the PCs and NDP to split the city. But i have been hearing the even Ford is in a tight race, and the NDP is within reach of Etobicoke North... which might be why you saw Quadri pull that stunt the other day. Not only that, I think Scarborough North and Centre are also NDP seats with this poll, I could see the NDP at 15-16 seats.

South Central, at 50%, when you look at where that is (Hamilton-NIagara) Makes sense, The PC will be lucky to hold Niagara West, Flamborough--Glanbrook and Haldimand--Norfolk. Also, Guelph is no longer favoured, in my opinion, for the greens. They have seen the vote tank from 7.4 in the 5/18 poll to 3.8.

I like the division of Southwest and Southcentral. The NDP will pick up London NC, and I still think they will win Chathan-Kent-Leamington... but its about 44/40 against the PCs, other then Sarnia-Lambton it will be hard gone. But, half of OLP voters have the NDP second choice, only 12% the PCs, that the second time i've seen that rough breakout. And over 35% of OLP voters are Likely to switch their vote. But both the PCs are NDP are up from 2014 (=6 PC, +14 NDP), it will be specific riding characteristic that might have an impact based on that poll. The NDP need to pull the PC down by about 5-6% here to really sweep it. But the PCs are down from 46% and the NDP up from 35%

GTA, again PCs down 2% from 44-42, NDP up 4% from 28-32. Not huge movement, but its all the trends that have the PCs/OLP down, NDP up. Still mostly Brampton and Durham wins here for the NDP (3-5 seats)

 

[lilTommy]

Has anyone seen this?

http://www.calculatedpolitics.com/project/2018-ontario/

"CalculatedPolitics.com is not a polling firm and the data included herein should not be understood as individual polls of all the electoral districts in the country. Rather, the data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data."

Some I am questioning heavily like Humber River-Black Creek and Scarborough Centre

[lilTommy]

I wonder how much they've incorporated federal numbers in the mix. That would explain the weird numbers.

Oh, and the NDP is targeting Whitby, so their chances are better than a 'cold day in hell'.

Cold day in Saudi Arabia perhaps?

Having lived in Saudi, the two are interchangeable, especially in summer around Dhahran .

As for Whitby, the NDP can target and hope, but then there is reality.  This is from the 2016 Whitby byelection:

Tory candidate Lorne Coe crushed Liberal Elizabeth Roy, 53 per cent to 28 per cent with nearly all polls reporting late Thursday evening. NDP candidate Niki Lundquist trailed with 16 per cent.

The candidates this time around, are - yes you guessed it - for the PC that same Coe and for the NDP that same Lundquist!  You make the conclusions.

I don't think the by-election is very representative. This is not 2016, this election has been a game changer; the NDP are polling at least 10% higher then back then, looking at the 2014 general results they NDP pulled in 23%, their 3rd best in Durham region behind Oshawa and Durham (24%). Durham also, unlike York has much more of an NDP history and demographic base in that Durham is still more working class/industrial while still being a commuter region. I think it holds that the NDP are not crazy at all to target Whitby and Durham, particularly when the NDP polls much much worse in Ajax and Pickering-Uxbridge.

[lilTommy]

The NDP seems to be making major gains among urban voters, the young, the well educated, the "liberally minded" and to some extent ethnic minorities - constituencies the Liberals ate their lunch in during the last election.  Meanwhile they're competing with Ford for the working class vote, they're not anywhere close to "owning" it.

In other words, they are barely taking from the PC side at all.  This line about all these "traditional Tories appalled by Ford voting for Andrea Horwath" doesn't seem to be producing any meaningful gains.   I think there are very few voters who stuck with Hudak last time who have any problem voting for the party under Ford.  Like the "never Trump" Republicans, it didn't amount to much.  

Keep in mind that in 2014 the PCs were at a very low 31%...I doubt if the NDP gains much from people who were willing to vote for the PCs under Tim "let's fire 100,000 people" Hudak. BUT, the PC are polling at about 37% in most polls now...who are those people who are taking them from 31% to 37%? Clearly the vast majority voted Liberal in 2014 and the NDP could be able to intercept some of that crowd...

It's all Liberal collapse,
PC - 31% - 37% +6
NDP - 23% - 39% +16
OLP - 38% - 16% -22

about 60-70% of the Liberal vote is going NDP, but the PCs are attracting 30% or so. Other then Chatham-Kent-Leamington (which also leans NDP due to redistribution) Sarnia-Lambton is the only PC seat "maybe" within NDP reach, unless the PC vote start to collapse to under 40%, closer to 35% in the SW.
The PCs are vulnerable though, since they have nothing costed, listed no way they are saving Billions, Fords tried this and it FAILED in TO, they did not save anything without cutting revenues and services and raising taxes.

[lilTommy]

New Innovative poll came out - if the results were already posted, I apologize in advance!

People were polled after the debate (from the 27th to 29th). The numbers are:

Liberal: 22%
PC: 34%
NDP: 36%

It is nowhere close to the Pollara poll, but it is showing definite movement for the NDP. There is lots of info for the stats nerds!

https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/IRG36-Tracking-Wave-4-Post-Debate.pdf

Did anyone review those much loved Value Clusters! Not good news for the PCs

The NDP leads among 4 of the 6 categories
Left Liberals, 45%
Core Left, 60%
Thrifty Moderates, 37% (now leads the PCs)
Business Liberals! 37% (this is the tightest group, OLP at 33% and PCs 24%, huge crash for them, in April, they held 41%)

PCs lead their traditional clusters
Deferential Conservatives, 51% (a decline from 65% in April)
Populist Conservatives, 70% (a decline from 81% in April)

Angus Reid is the second pollster to have the NDP at 40% in the 416, good news for the NDP and perhaps the PCs too, both polls have the OLP and PCs close together inn the 20's so we could see the NDP more then expected.

[lilTommy]

The Toronto numbers are encouraging for the NDP.  If they're not leading comfortably in the province's largest city it's really hard to see a path to victory for them.  Still depending on how the vote goes, Ford could deny them a few seats that they'd be winning in Scarborough (and of course he almost certainly will in Etobicoke North!) if the PCs had a more "generic" leader.

SW Ontario is proving to be competitive between the PCs and NDP.  So it looks like they'll be splitting the region in terms of seats, with the NDP dominating the cities.

Yup, very positive for the NDP: looking at 2014, the PCs vote is only up (based on polls) by 5% 23%-28%, That can't be enough to take many seats; with the NDP at around 40% seats like Don Valley East are effectively in play since the PC/OLP are splitting the vote enough for the NDP to squeak in 35% or so. But I'm more inclined to say Willowdale and Don Valley North, are going PC, with the NDP/OLP splitting the vote enough.
Etobicoke is hard to say, we don't know what the Ford personal effect is, I hear he is in a very tough fight in Etobicoke North, and sans Ford this seat would be more comfortably in the NDP column.

In the SW (excluding SC the Hamilton-Niagara area) The NDP still need the PCs to drop about 3-5% more to pick up those rural seats similar to 1990; but KWGC metro area is looking really good for the NDP to sweep up OLP seats and PC seats.

If the OLP wins seats up North, it would only be Thunder Bay. But Angus and Mainstreet have the OLP polling at 9% and 12% in the North... I think the TB riding's are lost at this point to the NDP. I'm watching Sault.Ste.Marie and Nipissing to see if the NDP can pick both up from the PCs...

[lilTommy]

The Toronto numbers are encouraging for the NDP.  If they're not leading comfortably in the province's largest city it's really hard to see a path to victory for them.  Still depending on how the vote goes, Ford could deny them a few seats that they'd be winning in Scarborough (and of course he almost certainly will in Etobicoke North!) if the PCs had a more "generic" leader.

SW Ontario is proving to be competitive between the PCs and NDP.  So it looks like they'll be splitting the region in terms of seats, with the NDP dominating the cities.

Yup, very positive for the NDP: looking at 2014, the PCs vote is only up (based on polls) by 5% 23%-28%, That can't be enough to take many seats; with the NDP at around 40% seats like Don Valley East are effectively in play since the PC/OLP are splitting the vote enough for the NDP to squeak in 35% or so. But I'm more inclined to say Willowdale and Don Valley North, are going PC, with the NDP/OLP splitting the vote enough.
Etobicoke is hard to say, we don't know what the Ford personal effect is, I hear he is in a very tough fight in Etobicoke North, and sans Ford this seat would be more comfortably in the NDP column.

In the SW (excluding SC the Hamilton-Niagara area) The NDP still need the PCs to drop about 3-5% more to pick up those rural seats similar to 1990; but KWGC metro area is looking really good for the NDP to sweep up OLP seats and PC seats.

If the OLP wins seats up North, it would only be Thunder Bay. But Angus and Mainstreet have the OLP polling at 9% and 12% in the North... I think the TB riding's are lost at this point to the NDP. I'm watching Sault.Ste.Marie and Nipissing to see if the NDP can pick both up from the PCs...

What makes you think that Fedeli would even come close to losing Nipissing, in the current political climate?  If the PC forms government, he is guaranteed a top position there, and he has cross party appeal in North Bay.

Perhaps the recent Mainstreet poll of that riding tipped him off?

Is Fedeli behind in that poll?

I haven't seen the polling, I wish, but pay-wall. This is my general impression of what I am hearing, updates on social media from the area.
Also, it's really the next most likely target after SSM in my opinion. You could probably flip a coin between Nipissing and Parry South-Muskoka over which one would go NDP.

[lilTommy]

LIUNA poll of Woodbridge has the PCs at over 50% and Del Duca fighting for second place with the NDP!

http://www.liuna.ca/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=77:ontario-election-vaughn-woodbridge-poll-by-campaign-research&catid=8&Itemid=106

Even with the small sample size, this poll would have to be spectacularly wrong for Del Duca to prevail.

It's not that surprising really.  First, the Liberals are dead in 905.  And the federal Conservatives got 44% of the vote there during the 2015 red wave, so it's not as if there isn't a sizable small-"c" conservative vote.

Plus, it's a very "Fordian" riding.

The Liberals are going to lose every riding in the 905, Peel, Durham and York. I can't see any seat they'd win?. My only prediction was Sousa in Mississauga-Lakeshore, but sounds like he's trailing.

[lilTommy]

The Toronto numbers are encouraging for the NDP.  If they're not leading comfortably in the province's largest city it's really hard to see a path to victory for them.  Still depending on how the vote goes, Ford could deny them a few seats that they'd be winning in Scarborough (and of course he almost certainly will in Etobicoke North!) if the PCs had a more "generic" leader.

SW Ontario is proving to be competitive between the PCs and NDP.  So it looks like they'll be splitting the region in terms of seats, with the NDP dominating the cities.

Yup, very positive for the NDP: looking at 2014, the PCs vote is only up (based on polls) by 5% 23%-28%, That can't be enough to take many seats; with the NDP at around 40% seats like Don Valley East are effectively in play since the PC/OLP are splitting the vote enough for the NDP to squeak in 35% or so. But I'm more inclined to say Willowdale and Don Valley North, are going PC, with the NDP/OLP splitting the vote enough.
Etobicoke is hard to say, we don't know what the Ford personal effect is, I hear he is in a very tough fight in Etobicoke North, and sans Ford this seat would be more comfortably in the NDP column.

In the SW (excluding SC the Hamilton-Niagara area) The NDP still need the PCs to drop about 3-5% more to pick up those rural seats similar to 1990; but KWGC metro area is looking really good for the NDP to sweep up OLP seats and PC seats.

If the OLP wins seats up North, it would only be Thunder Bay. But Angus and Mainstreet have the OLP polling at 9% and 12% in the North... I think the TB riding's are lost at this point to the NDP. I'm watching Sault.Ste.Marie and Nipissing to see if the NDP can pick both up from the PCs...

What makes you think that Fedeli would even come close to losing Nipissing, in the current political climate?  If the PC forms government, he is guaranteed a top position there, and he has cross party appeal in North Bay.

Perhaps the recent Mainstreet poll of that riding tipped him off?

Is Fedeli behind in that poll?

I haven't seen the polling, I wish, but pay-wall. This is my general impression of what I am hearing, updates on social media from the area.
Also, it's really the next most likely target after SSM in my opinion. You could probably flip a coin between Nipissing and Parry South-Muskoka over which one would go NDP.

Well, Nipissing is actually a majority urban riding (North Bay), so the NDP would definitely have a shot if Fideli wasn't so popular.

Parry Sound-Muskoka is very WASPy/ Old school conservative (but also very rural/small town), so could be a riding turned off of Fordism, but the NDP has no history there. The riding does have a lot of granola hippie types too that typically vote Green, but who might vote NDP this time.  Still though, the NDP has a better shot at Nipissing.

I will add, only as a clarification, the NDP won relatively strongly (40%) Muskoka-Georgian Bay in 1990 but lost, badly, in Parry Sound (4th after the greens).

[lilTommy]

Yet this aggregator http://www.calculatedpolitics.com/project/2018-ontario/ Has Brampton Centre for the NDP at 51%, but Brampton North PC 39/33 over the NDP.

"hopefully" the NDP is able to rally around to focus on Brampton and Durham, with Brampton Centre and North their best bets. Mississauge is looking like a PC sweep though

[lilTommy]

https://www.ontariopc.ca/plan_for_the_people
Can Doug really deliver all of this?

No. He wants to spend, cut taxes and reduce the deficit.

So at the end it comes down to what to sacrifice. The spending, the tax cuts, or the deficit reduction. Or give up a bit of each...

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1001872072300097536

Looks like Higher deficits then the NDP, but lower then the OLP in 19-20, but by 21-22 they will have the highest deficits.

Someone did the costing for Doug, and the Liberals did as well http://dougfordscostedplatform.ca/

Basically he's hiding what the PCs are going to do, he's either lying about all his promised tax cuts/revenue cuts meaning some/many will stay OR he will have to massively cut spending, I can see that there is some waste, but 11Billion worth?
To give you an Idea of what 11Billion is, that's basically what Ontario spends on Post Secondary and Training
https://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/the-2018-ontario-budget-in-charts-and-numbers/

[lilTommy]

Leaving aside Etobicoke North where Doug is actually on the ballot, I think of Scarborough-Agincourt as the "first to fall" among seats in Toronto to the PCs, as it is both "Ford Nation" enough and Conservative enough (and the NDP has no chance).

York Centre as well, falls into the both Ford Nation and Conservative enough.

[lilTommy]

[/quote]


Anyways I believe whomever wins will be a one term wonder.  Ford is very disliked and toxic so by 2022 people will be ready to throw him out.  NDP has too many inexperienced and radical candidates and that will show thus meaning they also lose in 2022.  By contrast if the PC's lose, maybe they will finally choose a reasonable leader like Christine Elliott and win a few terms.  Likewise if NDP loses, their strong showing will mean a much stronger slate of candidates as they will be seen as a government in waiting so putting together a cabinet that is talented and capable will be a lot easier in 2022 then this time.
[/quote]

What does inexperienced mean? what does radical mean? I'm tired of reading this, because it shows that people actually haven't read the profiles of the NDP candidates other then the 3 that have made headlines.... two for being pacifists, which is not radical, perhaps their comments around poppy's were BUT among progressives this is a argument/debate. The other for a f-bomb sign from 12 years ago... but that candidate is a known critic of police carding and excessive force, etc so aside from being a youth at a protest, we've seen worse signs against trump and trudeau.

Anyway, I looked at the candidates and here is my summary of their fields/qualifications, there is overlap since most candidates have experience or work in multiple fields i.e. both Edu work and union (teachers and union member):

56- women, 34- PoC, including 7 indigenous/first nations

Elected office (MPP, municipal, trustees, federations, executive)/Executive or Director - 28
Edu sector, teachers/College or University instructor/academia - 21
healthcare sector - 5
Business/Private sector/Self-employed - 20
Professionals/Law/research/public policy - 15
Unionist/Public sector worker - 23
Blue Collar/Labourer - 8
Social services, social work/community organisation/activist/advocate - 28
student - 3
Arts/media/journalism - 6

This is a fairly broad group of candidates, until you define what "inexperienced and radical" means... this is not the NDP list of candidates. Over 20% currently hold elected offices at various levels, the largest groups are expected for the NDP coming from the social services and union area, but also elected office holders and the Business community (which in itself was broad, many self-employed, finance sector, tech sector, consultants)
 

[lilTommy]

I did explicitly point out if you know what you're looking for - i.e. it's not a question of counting signs and saying that the party with the most in a given district will win (lol no), but looking for certain patterns. Essentially they're a good way to gauge electoral enthusiasm.

As for constituency polling... ahem... if we're being honest, certain companies this time are using them as a money making scam. Beware.

I agree with this. Since I started this conversation with my comment about lawn signs in Parkdale High Park, let me just make clear that I never implied that PC will pick that riding up. I was just contrasting the flood of PC signs in this election to the usual one or two that they have had in the past.

And I DO think that it is a trend that shows something. PC may still lose or even finish in their (usual) third place, but they will undoubtedly do much better than usual, even in this traditionally Liberal/NDP riding.

Trends and patterns - ignore them at your peril.

I absolutely agree that wealthier areas, that have tended to vote Liberal will see swings to the PCs; and I think this is where you are seeing the OLP-PC swings in the city, is among voters who would rather see the PCs then the NDP, and can't support the OLP any longer. High Park area, Rosedale will see PC gains, Briddle Path-York Mills-SunnyBrook, Forrest Hill and Lawrence Park.

[lilTommy]

And let’s keep in mind that on Saturday a lot of voters not have even been aware of Wynne’s concession as it happened around 11am and not everyone is glued to the. Eww all day. I think the full impact of her surrender would take at least another day or two to sink in

A fair number will switch for PC, my parents included.

Liberal voters still 2nd preference the NDP by about 40-60% vs the PCs where I have seen it range from 10-20%.
It will come down to a) who is more motivated to vote, anti-ford or anti-NDP forces within all camps. b) who sticks with the OLP, is it left leaning or right-leaning Liberals that stick with the party. c) can the NDP motivate the youth vote out, like in 2015 for the Fed. Liberals.

[lilTommy]

A nice review of how diverse the slates are: https://ipolitics.ca/2018/06/04/campaign-notebook-ndp-lead-with-diverse-candidates-liberals-pcs-close-behind/

nothing new really, BUT did you see the leaders schedules? stark differences:

"The NDP start day 27 of the campaign with an aggressive push through opposition territory. Horwath will make five stops on Monday in London North Centre (empty Liberal seat), Sarnia—Lambton (PC seat), Chatham-Kent—Leamington (PC seat), Elgin—Middlesex—London (PC seat), and Oxford (PC seat).

Tory Leader Doug Ford has just one event on his itinerary. He will start the day with an announcement in the empty Liberal seat of Scarborough Centre. The party says he’ll be making more stops with candidates and volunteers but journalists aren’t getting a heads up about those events."

- PCs playing safe front-runner?, NDP going all out trying to capitalize on Wynne's concession?