Ontario 2018 election

[Hatman 🍁]

Today's Mainstreet riding polls are fantastic if you're a Conservative.  The idea of a rural orange wave across Southern Ontario a la '90 (which was far less probable in today's circumstances) looks like a pure fantasy at this point.  Also, the PCs are ahead in Kenora and Sault Ste. Marie.

It's very difficult to think of many PC seats that the NDP are poised to take.

Two points:

1. Northern seats like Kenora have very very large First nation populations often living on reserves and they tend to be very difficult to capture in polls - especially IVR polls

Most of the reserves in that riding are now in Kiiwetinoong.

[Oryxslayer]

Steve Paikin just tweeted that Polly at Advanced Symbolics in their AI tracking shows the NDP has peaked and fallen back a bit.  Mainstreet has claimed to see the same thing while Innovative and Pollara showing the opposite, but Ipsos although pre-debate showing.  It seems things are all over the place although I've seen this quite often in the final week on elections and I suspect by weekend you will see polls start to converge.  I guess if there is one positive with these numbers, people will realize there are almost no safe ridings perhaps asides from the NDP held ones so more people will get out to vote realizing their vote might actually matter.

Well, 90% of the Tory/NDP ridings are safe, but we get the general purpose.

[PeteB]

Pollara:

NDP 43% (up 5)
PCs 32% (down 5)
Liberals 17% (down 1)

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-poll-the-ndp-lead-keeps-growing/

This is real. People are saying NDP = No Doug Party!!!

Let's see if another poll will back this up. If this result was accurate, I assume that we would be seeing Mainstreet riding polls absolutely crazy with orange colors, and we certainly are not seeing that.  So color me sceptical for now.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Pollara:

NDP 43% (up 5)
PCs 32% (down 5)
Liberals 17% (down 1)

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-poll-the-ndp-lead-keeps-growing/

This is real. People are saying NDP = No Doug Party!!!

Let's see if another poll will back this up. If this result was accurate, I assume that we would be seeing Mainstreet riding polls absolutely crazy with orange colors, and we certainly are not seeing that.  So color me sceptical for now.

Riding polls in BC generally overstated BC Liberal support based on what you would expect from the polls produced. Green and NDP support was also understated in some ridings.

[PeteB]

Pollara:

NDP 43% (up 5)
PCs 32% (down 5)
Liberals 17% (down 1)

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-poll-the-ndp-lead-keeps-growing/

This is real. People are saying NDP = No Doug Party!!!

Let's see if another poll will back this up. If this result was accurate, I assume that we would be seeing Mainstreet riding polls absolutely crazy with orange colors, and we certainly are not seeing that.  So color me sceptical for now.

Riding polls in BC generally overstated BC Liberal support based on what you would expect from the polls produced. Green and NDP support was also understated in some ridings.

Could be the case - we'll see.  I also now see that this is an online poll of "self-identified" respondents (see below). Like I said, let's wait for another few major polls.

Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation in the panel rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A Guide to the Parties of Ontario

Ontario Liberal Party - currently led by Kathleen Wynne, the Liberals are a rather dull managerialist centre party and have been the dominant force in provincial politics over the past decade as Ontario's voters finally tired of drama and decided that, frankly, they preferred things to be bland, insipid and uninspired thank you very much. They were re-elected on much the same platform in 2007, 2011 and 2014 despite objectively sucking at actually running things more complex than a lemonade stand. Which tells you something. The Liberals are effectively a party of urban Ontario, particularly Toronto and its surrounding suburbs. Most of its remaining rural bastions in the South West and East of the province were lost - quite probably forever - in 2011. In the cities where it thrives it is mostly strong in upscale districts and amongst minorities. Until very recently the Liberals gave off the distinctive whiff of a party of power, but this appears to have been a typical Canadian illusion and the party now faces a desperate fight not to remain in power but to retain as much of the furniture as possible. History gives added reason for fear: ousted from power in 1943 the Liberals spent the next four decades in perpetual opposition and spent much of this period as a repository for rural voters unhappy with the Big Blue Machine. This changed in 1985 as the PCs disintegrated in a mess of unpleasant factional infighting: a deal with the NDP allowed for the formation of a minority Liberal government under the charismatic/arrogant leadership of visionary leader/hubristic blowhard David Peterson. The Peterson government was re-elected in a landslide in 1987 but suffered an unexpected landslide loss to the NDP in 1990 after Peterson foolishly called a snap election despite corruption scandals, a dodgy economy and a Canada-wide constitutional crisis. The Liberals were unable to seriously exploit the failings of the Rae government, nor of the ultra-right wing Harris government that followed and remained in opposition - and always leading the opposition - until voters had enough of all that drama sh**t and fell in love with the creepy Norman Bates look-a-like Dalton McGuinty who promised them the mildly ineffectual tedium that they now craved. Following a succession of minor scandals and by-election defeats, McGuinty resigned and was replaced by Wynne who led the party to a surprisingly emphatic re-election in 2014. Nothing has gone right since. A needless and badly managed energy privatisation and ill-thought out environmental policies have caused utility bills to soar - the combination of this and the Wynne government's decision to go full #woke has led to populist rage from left and right and an electoral atmosphere of profound toxicity.

Ontario Progressive Conservative Party - currently led by Doug Ford (the crass and charmless brother of the crass yet charming Rob Ford, Toronto's late and legendary crack-smoking suburban-backlash Mayor), the PCs were once more or less what the Liberals have been since 2003 (i.e. a principle-free party of power based in the province's major cities), but have spent the past few decades as a party of remorseless hardline Thatcherites. The frankly unnerving ideological zealotry of the 1990s is gone, but the transformation seems permanent. Successive poor performances have left much traditional PC territory in and around Toronto in Liberal hands, leaving the PCs as a party of rural Ontario (including those parts that were traditionally Liberal) and of Toronto and Ottawa's outermost suburbs and dormitory settlements. Under the leadership of various extremely dull and extremely Upper Canadian figures (with names as clichéd as 'George Drew' and 'Leslie Frost'), the 'Big Blue Machine' ran the province - though not always with a majority - from 1943 until 1985, when pent-up factional issues exploded on the election of the overtly right-wing Frank Miller as party leader. Miller alienated many urban voters and was also damaged amongst rural Protestant voters by the decision of his moderate predecessor to extend funding for Catholic schools in the province. The PCs rightward shift solidified in opposition and culminated in the long leadership of humourless Thatcherite hatchet man Mike Harris (1990-2002). Harris led the PCs to an unexpected landslide - Ontario has a thing for these - over both the hapless Rae government and the overconfident Liberal opposition at the 1995 election. Significantly he did so on an openly hard-right platform: the so-called 'Common Sense Revolution'. Traditionally ineffectual opposition from the Liberals and the sad state of the demoralised and broken NDP meant that the PCs won a second term in 1999. The Common Sense Revolution was every bit as insane as its name suggested, and Harris's poorly planned Thatcherite 'revolution' ultimately led to the deaths of seven people in the small town of Walkerton as regulatory failure caused by a botched privatisation resulted in the pollution of the town's water supply with human excrement. One may wish to reflect on the symbolism of this. Harris suddenly resigned in 2002 and was succeeded by an old crony called Ernie Eves who led the PCs to a landslide defeat in 2003. Since then the PCs have flopped around in a rather purposeless manner (including a period when they were led by the gloriously incompetent John Tory) but have not fundamentally changed the message. Following the resignation of the graceless hack Tim Hudack after his second defeat, the PC's elected the smooth and slick Patrick Brown as their new leader and he seemed set for power... right up until he was #metooed. Farcical scenes followed - Brown even made an abortive and entirely surreal bid to retain the job he had resigned from, arguing, not very convincingly, that he had not really quit at all - and the victor of the clown car race that followed was Doug Ford, an otherwise entirely unremarkable man who had attained a high media profile and a questionable reputation as a 'populist' (in reality it always comes across as forced and astroturf in tone) because of the antics of his dead brother. Shortly after Ford's ascendancy one poll put PC support as high as 50%, but to say that Doug Ford lacks his brother's naive electoral genius would be quite the understatement...

Ontario New Democratic Party - currently led by Andrea Horwath, the NDP is Ontario's social democratic party of record and while it usually finishes third it has occasionally challenged for power (and on one occasion was luckless enough to actually win it). It is a party of Ontario's manufacturing towns and its remote industrial North. It also retains a degree of strength in Toronto, but is a shadow of its pre-Rae strength in the city: recovery there is essential in order for the party to have any realistic prospect of truly competing for power. Both its strength in working class areas outside Ontario's great cities and its relative weakness within them have been reinforced by the populist approach of the Horwath leadership, though Howarth has adopted a more 'traditional' tone for this election and, if the polls are to be believed, it is likely to bring dividends. The Ontario NDP is officially the Ontario wing of the national NDP and like the national party it was formed out of the more overtly left-wing CCF - which had come heartbreakingly close to power in 1943 - in the 1960s. Under a succession of urbane Toronto-based right-wingers it made steady progress in the 1960s and 1970s and for a time had a larger caucus than the Liberals. A swing to the left under a new leader in the early 1980s resulted in the inevitable electoral rebuff and another leader in the traditional ('right-wing', urbane, Toronto) mold: Bob Rae. Initially quite successful - under his leadership the NDP worked with the Peterson Liberals to topple the Big Blue Machine and then avoided serious electoral damage in the 1987 landslide - things started to go horribly wrong for Rae and for the NDP the moment the party was unexpectedly swept to power in 1990. The Rae government was an abysmal failure and put back the cause of social democracy in Ontario back several decades. Details can be found elsewhere; for now it is enough to observe that the Rae government managed to alienate both the NDP's working class base and the new voters it gained in 1990 and that the loathing it inspired at all points rightwards contributed directly to the appeal of the Common Sense Revolution. At the 1995 election the NDP were beaten into a poor third place. Leadership of the shattered party passed to the well-meaning but ineffectual Howard Hampton who led it to a further electoral collapse in 1999 as the logic of 'strategic voting' saw the NDP relegated to near irrelevance. Hampton remained leader until 2009 and presided over a slow rebuilding of the party, a process aided by fading memories of the Rae government (and quite probably by Bob Rae's contemporaneous decision to enter federal politics as a Liberal). Hampton was succeeded by Andrea Horwath, who in 2011 led the NDP to their first credible result since the defeat of the Rae government, despite running a campaign that clearly alienated many voters in Toronto. A repeat performance followed in 2014. The unpopularity of the Wynne government and the PCs travails have now placed Horwath and the NDP on the verge of a major electoral breakthrough.

[ON Progressive]

I voted tonight. Literally nobody else was there other than my brother who voted with me and poll workers, but this is an advance voting poll in a small town on a Tuesday evening.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

NDP landslide?

[PeteB]

New Innovative poll came out - if the results were already posted, I apologize in advance!

People were polled after the debate (from the 27th to 29th). The numbers are:

Liberal: 22%
PC: 34%
NDP: 36%

It is nowhere close to the Pollara poll, but it is showing definite movement for the NDP. There is lots of info for the stats nerds!

https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/IRG36-Tracking-Wave-4-Post-Debate.pdf

[adma]

Has anyone seen this?

http://www.calculatedpolitics.com/project/2018-ontario/

2. Etobicoke ridings - this is a total mess - it's showing Ford losing North, Liberals winning Centre with a 9% margin, and PC winning Lakeshore.  They got everything wrong.  Ford WILL win easily in Etobicoke North, and anyone who doubts that should spend some time there.  Etobicoke Centre is TCTC right now and PC has the weakest Etobicoke candidate in Lakeshore, with a popular Liberal MPP.

Presumably, the Etobicoke projection didn't take into account that Etobicoke-Lakeshore's 2014 PC count was skewed upward by its being a byelected "incumbent" seat through Doug Holyday.

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The Liberal MPP's not running again.  (But I agree that Liberal-in-third seems "off".)

[Hatman 🍁]

If the Mainstreet riding polls are to be believed, GPR may be the NDP's worst riding in the province.

[adma]

I wonder how much they've incorporated federal numbers in the mix. That would explain the weird numbers.

Oh, and the NDP is targeting Whitby, so their chances are better than a 'cold day in hell'.

Cold day in Saudi Arabia perhaps?

Having lived in Saudi, the two are interchangeable, especially in summer around Dhahran .

As for Whitby, the NDP can target and hope, but then there is reality.  This is from the 2016 Whitby byelection:

Tory candidate Lorne Coe crushed Liberal Elizabeth Roy, 53 per cent to 28 per cent with nearly all polls reporting late Thursday evening. NDP candidate Niki Lundquist trailed with 16 per cent.

The candidates this time around, are - yes you guessed it - for the PC that same Coe and for the NDP that same Lundquist!  You make the conclusions.

Actually, Lundquist *overachieved* relative to pre-byelection polls that saw her flirting with single digits--OTOH her best parts (the Oshawa polls) are gone from the riding.  But still; within the "auto-orbit" of Oshawa, I can see why the NDP might genuinely think of themselves in the running here.

As for Coe--don't think that a "byelection bump" didn't pertain here, yes, even here, and back when the party still seemed "normal" under Patrick Brown.  And *if* we're looking at an overall NDP advantage of 5-10 points and the PCs reduced to Hudak-like numbers or worse (*maybe*)--don't rule out Whitby...

[adma]

Two points:

1. Northern seats like Kenora have very very large First nation populations often living on reserves and they tend to be very difficult to capture in polls - especially IVR polls

Most of the reserves in that riding are now in Kiiwetinoong.

Though there's a fair number of reserves remaining; and depending on turnout, they *could* mean a lot in a tight race.  (IOW a 214-to-5 NDP advantage in a single reserve poll can cancel out a 800-to-1000 PC advantage in a cluster of non-reserve polls.)

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder how much they've incorporated federal numbers in the mix. That would explain the weird numbers.

Oh, and the NDP is targeting Whitby, so their chances are better than a 'cold day in hell'.

Cold day in Saudi Arabia perhaps?

Having lived in Saudi, the two are interchangeable, especially in summer around Dhahran .

As for Whitby, the NDP can target and hope, but then there is reality.  This is from the 2016 Whitby byelection:

Tory candidate Lorne Coe crushed Liberal Elizabeth Roy, 53 per cent to 28 per cent with nearly all polls reporting late Thursday evening. NDP candidate Niki Lundquist trailed with 16 per cent.

The candidates this time around, are - yes you guessed it - for the PC that same Coe and for the NDP that same Lundquist!  You make the conclusions.

Actually, Lundquist *overachieved* relative to pre-byelection polls that saw her flirting with single digits--OTOH her best parts (the Oshawa polls) are gone from the riding.  But still; within the "auto-orbit" of Oshawa, I can see why the NDP might genuinely think of themselves in the running here.

As for Coe--don't think that a "byelection bump" didn't pertain here, yes, even here, and back when the party still seemed "normal" under Patrick Brown.  And *if* we're looking at an overall NDP advantage of 5-10 points and the PCs reduced to Hudak-like numbers or worse (*maybe*)--don't rule out Whitby...

We shouldn't be comparing to by-elections where the NDP often does very poorly if voters view it as a strict Lib-PC race.

[PeteB]

Has anyone seen this?

http://www.calculatedpolitics.com/project/2018-ontario/

2. Etobicoke ridings - this is a total mess - it's showing Ford losing North, Liberals winning Centre with a 9% margin, and PC winning Lakeshore.  They got everything wrong.  Ford WILL win easily in Etobicoke North, and anyone who doubts that should spend some time there.  Etobicoke Centre is TCTC right now and PC has the weakest Etobicoke candidate in Lakeshore, with a popular Liberal MPP.

Presumably, the Etobicoke projection didn't take into account that Etobicoke-Lakeshore's 2014 PC count was skewed upward by its being a byelected "incumbent" seat through Doug Holyday.

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The Liberal MPP's not running again.  (But I agree that Liberal-in-third seems "off".)

My mistake there. I meant that the Liberal candidate is the popular Mayor of Russell, Pierre Leroux. If Wynne can sustain the momentum, this may be one rural riding she can hold.

[Mazda]

Very informative, thanks Al!

[Krago]

New Poll from the Angus Reid Institute:

https://ipolitics.ca/2018/05/30/ontario-ndp-pcs-in-dead-heat-angus-reid-poll/

http://angusreid.org/ontario-election-2018/

NDP - 39%
PC - 37%
Lib - 17%
Green - 5%
Other - 2%


Best Premier: Horwath 34%, Ford 25%, Wynne 15%

[lilTommy]

New Innovative poll came out - if the results were already posted, I apologize in advance!

People were polled after the debate (from the 27th to 29th). The numbers are:

Liberal: 22%
PC: 34%
NDP: 36%

It is nowhere close to the Pollara poll, but it is showing definite movement for the NDP. There is lots of info for the stats nerds!

https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/IRG36-Tracking-Wave-4-Post-Debate.pdf

Did anyone review those much loved Value Clusters! Not good news for the PCs

The NDP leads among 4 of the 6 categories
Left Liberals, 45%
Core Left, 60%
Thrifty Moderates, 37% (now leads the PCs)
Business Liberals! 37% (this is the tightest group, OLP at 33% and PCs 24%, huge crash for them, in April, they held 41%)

PCs lead their traditional clusters
Deferential Conservatives, 51% (a decline from 65% in April)
Populist Conservatives, 70% (a decline from 81% in April)

Angus Reid is the second pollster to have the NDP at 40% in the 416, good news for the NDP and perhaps the PCs too, both polls have the OLP and PCs close together inn the 20's so we could see the NDP more then expected.

[ON Progressive]

Angus Reid is the second pollster to have the NDP at 40% in the 416, good news for the NDP and perhaps the PCs too, both polls have the OLP and PCs close together inn the 20's so we could see the NDP more then expected.

Angus Reid has the PCs up a mere 38-36 in the 905. That would be a very weak performance for the PCs since most polls have them up by double digits there.

[Krago]

New Innovative poll came out - if the results were already posted, I apologize in advance!

People were polled after the debate (from the 27th to 29th). The numbers are:

Liberal: 22%
PC: 34%
NDP: 36%

It is nowhere close to the Pollara poll, but it is showing definite movement for the NDP. There is lots of info for the stats nerds!

https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/IRG36-Tracking-Wave-4-Post-Debate.pdf

Did anyone review those much loved Value Clusters! Not good news for the PCs

The NDP leads among 4 of the 6 categories
Left Liberals, 45%
Core Left, 60%
Thrifty Moderates, 37% (now leads the PCs)
Business Liberals! 37% (this is the tightest group, OLP at 33% and PCs 24%, huge crash for them, in April, they held 41%)

PCs lead their traditional clusters
Deferential Conservatives, 51% (a decline from 65% in April)
Populist Conservatives, 70% (a decline from 81% in April)

Angus Reid is the second pollster to have the NDP at 40% in the 416, good news for the NDP and perhaps the PCs too, both polls have the OLP and PCs close together inn the 20's so we could see the NDP more then expected.

All three post-debate polls are showing the NDP opening up a big lead in Toronto/416 (and I would be very surprised if Pollara didn't as well).

Angus Reid: NDP 40%, PC 28%, Lib 24%, Grn 7%
Mainstreet: NDP 40.9%, PC 28.7%, Lib 25.5%, Grn 3.2%
Innovative: NDP 39%, PC 28%, Lib 24%, Grn 7%

[DC Al Fine]

New Innovative poll came out - if the results were already posted, I apologize in advance!

People were polled after the debate (from the 27th to 29th). The numbers are:

Liberal: 22%
PC: 34%
NDP: 36%

It is nowhere close to the Pollara poll, but it is showing definite movement for the NDP. There is lots of info for the stats nerds!

https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/IRG36-Tracking-Wave-4-Post-Debate.pdf

Did anyone review those much loved Value Clusters! Not good news for the PCs

The NDP leads among 4 of the 6 categories
Left Liberals, 45%
Core Left, 60%
Thrifty Moderates, 37% (now leads the PCs)
Business Liberals! 37% (this is the tightest group, OLP at 33% and PCs 24%, huge crash for them, in April, they held 41%)

PCs lead their traditional clusters
Deferential Conservatives, 51% (a decline from 65% in April)
Populist Conservatives, 70% (a decline from 81% in April)

Angus Reid is the second pollster to have the NDP at 40% in the 416, good news for the NDP and perhaps the PCs too, both polls have the OLP and PCs close together inn the 20's so we could see the NDP more then expected.

The populist conservative one is interesting. That's barely more than Hudak managed. The remaining Tory improvement from 2014 seems to be coming from Deferential Conservatives and Thrifty Moderates.

[Hatman 🍁]

Just looking at our numbers now. I'm not going to give the topline, but since we probably won't have regional #s out, I can say the NDP have a decent lead in Toronto. They're up 50-24 in central (Liberals in third!) and down 38-40 in the outer region. (margin of error for both regions is around 9).

[DL]

Just looking at our numbers now. I'm not going to give the topline, but since we probably won't have regional #s out, I can say the NDP have a decent lead in Toronto. They're up 50-24 in central (Liberals in third!) and down 38-40 in the outer region. (margin of error for both regions is around 9).

I'm assuming that "central" means Parkdale-High Park, York South-Weston, Davenport, University-Rosedale, Spadina-Fort York, Toronto Centre, Toronto-Danforth, Beaches-East York and St. Paul's and that "outer" means all the Scarborough, Etobicoke and North York seats, but where do you classify Eglinton-Lawrence and Don Valley West?

If the NDP is essentially dead even with the PCs in outer Toronto it would suggest that the NDP would likely win at least a few seats in Scarborough and North York...and if Ford himself were not running Etobicoke North would be a likely pick up

[PeteB]

For the fun of it, I plugged all the results from yesterday and today into the TCTC simulator.  As you know, I don't think much of the simulator, but did it anyway.  This is what the result in parliamentary seats looks like:

QP MPP Seats (63 needed for majority)               
TCTC Simulator               
                          PC  NDP   Liberal   Government
               
Ipsos Reid           75   45   6      PC Majority
Mainstreet          71   53   0      PC Majority
Pollara                44   80   0      NDP Majority
Inovative           67   51   6      PC Majority
Angus Reid        78   46   0      PC Majority

I wouldn't draw too many conclusions, but the trend is pretty clear.  Unless NDP opens up at least a 5%+ lead, PC win.
               

[PeteB]

For the fun of it, I plugged all the results from yesterday and today into the TCTC simulator.  As you know, I don't think much of the simulator, but did it anyway.  This is what the result in parliamentary seats looks like:

QP MPP Seats (63 needed for majority)               
TCTC Simulator               
                          PC  NDP   Liberal   Government
               
Ipsos Reid           75   45   6      PC Majority
Mainstreet          71   53   0      PC Majority
Pollara                44   80   0      NDP Majority
Inovative           67   51   6      PC Majority
Angus Reid        78   46   0      PC Majority

I wouldn't draw too many conclusions, but the trend is pretty clear.  Unless NDP opens up at least a 5%+ lead, PC win.
               

Playing further with the TCTC simulator, it shows that it needs NDP-PC>6% for a minority situation and NDP-PC>7% for a clear NDP majority.  As I said, in spite of the known PC structural advantage, this is way over the top imho.  But it confirms that Andrea Horwath has her work cut out for her.