Ontario 2018 election

[Hatman 🍁]

I believe Brampton South is the whitest/oldest/wealthiest of the 5 Brampton ridings, so makes sense if the NDP doesn't win there.   

[PeteB]

Can someone provide these riding polls?

They're encouraging if you're a Conservative.

PCs leading in the DVE and DVN, blowout in Mississauga-Lakeshore.

Even Brampton only looks OK from an NDP point of view.  West and North they're neck in neck with the PCs, South PCs are leading.

The NDP is well ahead in Kingston - but that was never going PC anyway.

Sousa is losing...in a blowout? There goes one of my predictions !

[lilTommy]

Can someone provide these riding polls?

They're encouraging if you're a Conservative.

PCs leading in the DVE and DVN, blowout in Mississauga-Lakeshore.

Even Brampton only looks OK from an NDP point of view.  West and North they're neck in neck with the PCs, South PCs are leading.

The NDP is well ahead in Kingston - but that was never going PC anyway.

Sousa is losing...in a blowout? There goes one of my predictions !

me too... so much fo Hazel's endorsement there.

Ahhh, any links!? details man! Any Southwest seats? SpaFY? UniRose? TorCen?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Can someone provide these riding polls?

They're encouraging if you're a Conservative.

PCs leading in the DVE and DVN, blowout in Mississauga-Lakeshore.

Even Brampton only looks OK from an NDP point of view.  West and North they're neck in neck with the PCs, South PCs are leading.

The NDP is well ahead in Kingston - but that was never going PC anyway.

Sousa is losing...in a blowout? There goes one of my predictions !

me too... so much fo Hazel's endorsement there.

Ahhh, any links!? details man! Any Southwest seats? SpaFY? UniRose? TorCen?

Riding polls are included as part of Mainstreet daily tracker and thus are pay walled. Mainstreet is releasing a public poll later today so they may include a few riding polls in that.

[DL]

Can someone provide these riding polls?

They're encouraging if you're a Conservative.

PCs leading in the DVE and DVN, blowout in Mississauga-Lakeshore.

Even Brampton only looks OK from an NDP point of view.  West and North they're neck in neck with the PCs, South PCs are leading.

The NDP is well ahead in Kingston - but that was never going PC anyway.

What I find shocking is that the NDP is actually running second in DVE and not tnhat far behind the PCs and also that Eglinton-Lawrence is a three way race...that is usually the NDP's worst riding in the city!

[King of Kensington]

Didn't even see Eg-Law...wow.  Confirms my suspicion that Ford polls worse there than a more generic Tory but if the NDP is doing that well the PCs could slip through.

[mileslunn]

Can someone provide these riding polls?

They're encouraging if you're a Conservative.

PCs leading in the DVE and DVN, blowout in Mississauga-Lakeshore.

Even Brampton only looks OK from an NDP point of view.  West and North they're neck in neck with the PCs, South PCs are leading.

The NDP is well ahead in Kingston - but that was never going PC anyway.

What I find shocking is that the NDP is actually running second in DVE and not tnhat far behind the PCs and also that Eglinton-Lawrence is a three way race...that is usually the NDP's worst riding in the city!

Don Valley East no surprise as in 2011, the federal NDP got 25% so while you cannot do a uniform swing, NDP is polling about 10% higher than 2011 so if you add 10% each riding while subtract 8% for PCs and 5% for Liberals you can get a rough idea of what is happening

[PeteB]

Mainstreet riding poll for Kingston and the Islands (picked up from another forum):

NDP 36.1%
Liberals 28.1%
PCs 24.4%
Greens 11%

[ON Progressive]

Mainstreet riding poll for Kingston and the Islands (picked up from another forum):

NDP 36.1%
Liberals 28.1%
PCs 24.4%
Greens 11%

I don't take riding polls seriously for a reason. No way the Greens are at double digits in Kingston and the Islands.

[PeteB]

Mainstreet riding poll for Kingston and the Islands (picked up from another forum):

NDP 36.1%
Liberals 28.1%
PCs 24.4%
Greens 11%

I don't take riding polls seriously for a reason. No way the Greens are at double digits in Kingston and the Islands.

Perhaps that "Green" vote is the "shy" Liberal vote ?

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, it is a university riding.

I think you need to ignore the actual numbers with riding polls, and just aggregate the story they're telling.

We've been told the NDP is competitive in Kingston, and here we go. They have a decent lead there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Constituency polling is terrible in All Nations, but none more so than Canada...

When I saw that you had posted, I knew exactly that was what you were going to say.  I was wondering how long it would take you to swoop in with that hot take.

Not a hot take, just an empirical observation that needs to be repeated (apparently) at regular intervals...

[PeteB]

A very interesting read by Tamara Khandaker in Vice, about why Doug Ford appeals to immigrants and minorities:

https://news.vice.com/en_ca/article/nek7zd/why-doug-fords-appeal-transcends-racial-lines

[King of Kensington]

It looks like the Liberals will be reduced to some "John Tory Liberal" seats, a seat or two in Ottawa and Thunder Bay.  

[PeteB]

It looks like the Liberals will be reduced to some "John Tory Liberal" seats, a seat or two in Ottawa and Thunder Bay.  

After the debate, I am predicting they will get 16-19: 8-9 in TO, 4-5 in Ottawa and E ON (Ottawa and GPR), 1-2 in the North (TB), 3 in the 905 (Vaughan and Missisauga) and NONE in SW ON.  But there are still 10 days - that can change up or down.

[RogueBeaver]

Mainstreet has 39/37/16, Ford leads by 10 in 905, Horwath by 12 in 416.

[King of Kensington]

Steven Del Duca is one of the most overrated politicians around in my opinion.  He strikes me more as someone who just got lucky, not a respected Sorbara/Bevilacqua type figure.  

[King of Kensington]

OK what isn't happening (unless things change dramatically) is the Rae '90 SW Ontario near-sweep.  The NDP is driving the Liberals out of the cities but will have a much harder time defeating PC MPPs.

[toaster]

Steven Del Duca is one of the most overrated politicians around in my opinion.  He strikes me more as someone who just got lucky, not a respected Sorbara/Bevilacqua type figure.  

The way that man speaks, in the holier than thou attitude really turns people off from politics.  Speaks down to people who don't agree with him.  Can't stand that man. 

[King of Kensington]

The way that man speaks, in the holier than thou attitude really turns people off from politics.  Speaks down to people who don't agree with him.  Can't stand that man. 

Del Duca may be a "public face" of the Liberals in the GTA, but that works both ways!

[PeteB]

The way that man speaks, in the holier than thou attitude really turns people off from politics.  Speaks down to people who don't agree with him.  Can't stand that man. 

Del Duca may be a "public face" of the Liberals in the GTA, but that works both ways!

Del Duca has so far shown no special abilities, but he is also a potential future Liberal leader AND an Italian-Canadian in a heavily ethnic Italian riding. Because of tthat, short of a total romp by the PC or a total Liberal collapse (neither of which look likely), Del Duca will imho get reelected.

[136or142]

Apparently Ford is now running on 'experience matters.'  This is from the same guy whose supporters called a question on how does a law get made an 'elitist gotcha question.'

Conservatives were for the idea that 'ignorance is knowledge' before they were against it.

Doug Ford's experience completely disqualifies him as a Premier.

[mileslunn]

Apparently Ford is now running on 'experience matters.'  This is from the same guy whose supporters called a question on how does a law get made an 'elitist gotcha question.'

Conservatives were for the idea that 'ignorance is knowledge' before they were against it.

Doug Ford's experience completely disqualifies him as a Premier.

Even though I lean philosophically in the direction of the PCs got to agree.  He is less qualified than former wrestler Jesse Ventura was to be governor of Minnesota back in the 90s.  In fact of major party leaders in the last 20 years, I don't think I have seen a single leader of any major party as unqualified as Ford.  Even Rini Bokhari last year who a joke in Manitoba was probably more so.  If the PCs lose this one, they have no one but themselves to blame.  Had they chosen Elliott or Mulroney or heck just stuck with Fideli, they would be on their way to forming government.  Patrick Brown for all his flaws, was infinitely more qualified than Ford ever has or will be.  He at least knew his stuff.

[King of Kensington]

Del Duca has so far shown no special abilities, but he is also a potential future Liberal leader AND an Italian-Canadian in a heavily ethnic Italian riding. Because of tthat, short of a total romp by the PC or a total Liberal collapse (neither of which look likely), Del Duca will imho get reelected.

Why does being "an ethnic Italian" give him any special advantage?  When is the last time the Liberals or the Conservatives federally or provincially did not run an Italian Canadian candidate in Woodbridge (or previous riding configurations)?

Also, Ford is popular among Italians in the GTA.

[PeteB]

Del Duca has so far shown no special abilities, but he is also a potential future Liberal leader AND an Italian-Canadian in a heavily ethnic Italian riding. Because of tthat, short of a total romp by the PC or a total Liberal collapse (neither of which look likely), Del Duca will imho get reelected.

Why does being "an ethnic Italian" give him any special advantage?  When is the last time the Liberals or the Conservatives federally or provincially did not run an Italian Canadian candidate in Woodbridge (or previous riding configurations)?

Also, Ford is popular among Italians.

The fact that he is ethnic Italian ALONE would not qualify him (in fact the other candidates in Vaughan are also ethnic Italians).

BUT, that fact, coupled with the real possibility of him taking over the OLP will give him an advantage.