Ontario 2018 election

[PeteB]

Latest data from Pollara: dead heat
"...The NDP (37%; -6) and the PCs (37%; +5) are once again tied. The Liberals (20%; +3) remain in third place, posting some minor gains at the expense of the NDP. Although still the most favourably-viewed leader in the race, Andrea Horwath’s previously unassailable impression ratings have declined (positives down 16 points) in the week following the debate...."

https://www.pollara.com/onelxn-finalw1-may30jun2/

[james77]

Mainstreet is going to release a number of riding polls in what should be highly competitive districts today:
Thunder Bay—Atikokan (update)

Hi all, I'm new here, and I'm just curious as to what the situation is for TB-A. This is my home riding. In the urban portion of the riding, the Liberals are leading the sign war by a 3-2 margin over the NDP, while the PCs are a distant third. Of the 2 Thunder Bay ridings, this one is more likely to flip NDP than TB-SN.

[ON Progressive]

Mainstreet is going to release a number of riding polls in what should be highly competitive districts today:
Thunder Bay—Atikokan (update)

Hi all, I'm new here, and I'm just curious as to what the situation is for TB-A. This is my home riding. In the urban portion of the riding, the Liberals are leading the sign war by a 3-2 margin over the NDP, while the PCs are a distant third. Of the 2 Thunder Bay ridings, this one is more likely to flip NDP than TB-SN.

Welcome!

As for your riding, the poll has the smallest Liberal lead possible over the NDP, which I suppose isn't too far off the sign war you mention. However, riding polls aren't known to be reliable as has been mentioned in this thread a lot.

[King of Kensington]

Welcome as well!

I actually think oddly enough the Premier's concession actually may help the Thunder Bay MPPs a bit.  They are elected based on personal popularity anyway and the fact that they're certainly not voting for a "Kathleen Wynne government" makes it easier to vote for the person.

(BTW I don't think this logic applies in most ridings)

[DL]

In Northern Ontario a lot of people only vote Liberal because they think that if they elect an opposition MPP their roads wont get paved. Now that Wynne has conceded that would end all of that Liberal patronage driven voting

[King of Kensington]

In any race where the Liberals are possibly in contention, it's going to be close, as no Liberal is headed for a landslide victory (in other words, there are no absolutely, truly safe seats for the Liberals right now).  Another party can't be so far ahead, because personal popularity and strategic voting and so on aren't going to make up for all of that.  The Liberals will prevail because at least one party is very weak and/or another under-performs for some reason.  

In addition, some other criteria:

1.  A lot of "too educated to vote Ford, too rich to vote NDP" types (this may prove the most reliable Liberal constituency)

2.  A riding where the Liberal is clearly best positioned to defeat the Conservative or where the Conservatives have no chance

3.  Extraordinary personal popularity or at least enough to tip the vote in a close race.  Personal popularity matters more in rural and northern ridings

4.  Not too vulnerable to the NDP pulling votes from the Liberals en masse

Using PeteB's Liberal possibilities.

Toronto St. Paul's

Liberal candidate: Jess Spindler

NDP surprisingly close to the Liberals, but the Liberals have the advantage of this being a horrible fit for Ford.  Has 1 in spades, Conservatives can't win it, candidate is a political neophyte, vulnerable on the left but probably not enough to lose because of the weaknesses of the PCs.  So overall, likely Liberal hold.

Don Valley West

Liberal candidate: Premier Kathleen Wynne

Liberal-PC race with very weak NDP potential and PCs under-performing.  Has 1 in spades.  2, yes.  3, absolutely yes.  4, certainly yes.  So overall, likely Liberal hold.

Don Valley East

Liberal candidate: Michael Coteau
A real three-way race.  1, somewhat.  2, perhaps.  3, somewhat. 4, somewhat.  So overall, possible Liberal hold.

Don Valley North

Liberal candidate: Shelley Carroll

Liberal vs. PC race but PCs may be too far ahead.  1, not really.  2, yes.  3, yes.  4, yes.  So overall, Shelley Carroll is an appealing candidate for the riding and clearly the anti-PC candidate, but probably too far behind PCs, so probably not.

Scarborough Guildwood

Liberal candidate: Mitzie Hunter
Three way race, without a strong PC candidate and an invisible NDP.  1, nope.  2, somewhat.  3, yes.  4, hard to say.  Overall, it's the last Scarborough seat to fall, but don't think it's that special.

Eglinton Lawrence

Liberal candidate: Mike Colle

NDP is traditionally very weak but apparently surging and not a good fit for Ford.  1, yes.  2, yes.  3, yes. 4, possibly.  Definitely one of the better bets for the Liberals, but nothing is certain.

Toronto Centre

Liberal candidate: David Morris

Big NDP surge in the riding, Liberals may not be in contention at all, Conservatives not a factor.  1, yes, somewhat.  2, yes.  3, no (no Liberal incumbent or star candidate).  4, definitely vulnerable.  Overall, this looks like an NDP pickup.

University-Rosedale

Liberal candidate: Jo-Ann Davis

Very large NDP/Liberal swing vote in riding, Conservatives not a factor.  1, somewhat.  2, yes.  3, no incumbent or star candidate.  4, definitely vulnerable.  Overall, looks like an NDP pickup.

Spadina Ft. York

Liberal candidate: Han Dong

Very large NDP/Liberal swing vote in riding, Conservatives not a factor.  1, somewhat.  2, yes.  3, not really.  4, definitely vulnerable.  Overall, looks like an NDP pickup.

Willowdale

Liberal candidate: David Zimmer

Traditionally a Liberal/Conservative riding with weak NDP, but NDP slightly ahead of the Liberals.  1, somewhat.  2, not clear.  3, probably not.  4, very vulnerable.  Overall, hard to see Liberals keeping this, though not impossible.

Etobicoke Lakeshore

Liberal candidate: Peter Milczyn

PC-NDP race with Liberals clearly in third.  Next!

Vaughan-Woodbridge

Liberal candidate: Steven Del Duca

NDP is very weak, no reason to believe PCs are underperforming because of Ford as Ford is a better fit for the riding than a generic PC leader. 1, definitely not.  2, yes.  3, not enough to tip a double digit PC lead in a 905 riding.  4, NDP is weak and probably won't make or break the Liberals.  Overall, almost certainly not.

Hamilton West Ancaster Dundas

Liberal candidate: Ted McMeekin

KW has made some appearances with McMeekin recently.  Bad fit for Ford but progressive vote is moving en masse to the NDP.  Next!

Mississauga Centre

Liberal candidate: Bobbie Daid (had to look this up)

New riding.  Liberals may benefit from "anti-poppy" NDP candidate but that just splits the vote and helps the PCs.  So probably not.

Mississauga East Cooksville

Liberal candidate:  Damerla Dapeka

Traditionally Liberal-Conservative with weak NDP, seems somewhat vulnerable to vote-splitting, more Fordian than generic PC.  Not going to bother going through the rest here.
 
Mississauga Malton

Liberal candidate: Amrit Mangat

Traditionally Liberal-Conservative, but with NDP base from Jagmeet Singh's territory moved into the riding.  1, definitely not.  2, not clear at all.  3, definitely not.  4, NDP could win this if things go well.  Likely PC pickup due to vote-splitting, and NDP seems more likely to take it than the Liberals.

17. St. Catharines

Liberal candidate: Jim Bradley

A Jim Bradley riding, not a traditional Liberal riding, but it looks like he's in third.  Personal popularity doesn't look like it will save him.  Polling says it'll go NDP, PCs more likely to take it than Bradley.  It would be a stunner, but one of the most likely non-GTA/non-Ottawa/non-Thunder Bay holdouts.

Thunder Bay Superior North and Thunder Bay Atikokan

Liberal candidates: Michael Gravelle and Bill Mauro

Personal popularity, not riding demographics or popularity of the Liberals make these Liberal held.  Personal popularity matters far more in Northern Ontario than in the GTA.  They could hold on, but also lose to the NDP.

Ottawa Vanier

Liberal candidate:  Nathalie Des Rosiers

Good case for being the safest Liberal riding in the province, will go NDP before it goes Conservative.  Has 1 in spades.  2, yes.  3, Lib MPP is respected but it's the deep history not the candidate doing.  4, maybe with a better candiate.  Overall, likely Liberal hold.

Ottawa Centre

Liberal candidate: Yasir Naqvi

Liberal/NDP swing riding.  1, no the educated and professional classes have no problem voting NDP here.  2, yes.  3, Naqvi = Paul Dewar.  4, absolutely yes.  Going NDP.

Ottawa South

Liberal candidate: John Fraser

Looks like a genuine three-way race, with NDP polling surprisingly well.  1, somewhat. 2, unclear. 3, not clear.  4, probably not.  Overall, a bit of a crapshoot where anyone can prevail, Liberal hold is certainly possible.

Glengarry Prescott Russell

Liberal candidate: Pierre Leroux

Very popular mayor running for the Liberals, NDP has no chance.  Hard to see a riding like this going Liberal, but I guess in the unlikelihood of a rural Liberal out it'll be this one.

[cp]

Mainstreet is going to release a number of riding polls in what should be highly competitive districts today:
Thunder Bay—Atikokan (update)

Hi all, I'm new here, and I'm just curious as to what the situation is for TB-A. This is my home riding. In the urban portion of the riding, the Liberals are leading the sign war by a 3-2 margin over the NDP, while the PCs are a distant third. Of the 2 Thunder Bay ridings, this one is more likely to flip NDP than TB-SN.

Welcome!

As for your riding, the poll has the smallest Liberal lead possible over the NDP, which I suppose isn't too far off the sign war you mention. However, riding polls aren't known to be reliable as has been mentioned in this thread a lot.

Welcome to the fun, James

Another important caveat to add: sign prevalence isn't necessarily an indication of the competitiveness of the race. Between observer bias and the volatility of election campaigns generally, the signs generally tell you less about the race than one might think. 

[136or142]

What happens if the result is 62 NDP 62 PCs?

[mileslunn]

What happens if the result is 62 NDP 62 PCs?

Probably another election as whichever side puts up a speaker is at a disadvantage so neither party puts up a speaker triggering another election.

[ON Progressive]

Forum released a poll done entirely on Saturday

PC 38% (-1)
NDP 37% (+2)
Liberal 18% (-1)

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2850/june-2-2018/

[DL]

And let’s keep in mind that on Saturday a lot of voters not have even been aware of Wynne’s concession as it happened around 11am and not everyone is glued to the. Eww all day. I think the full impact of her surrender would take at least another day or two to sink in

[DabbingSanta]

And let’s keep in mind that on Saturday a lot of voters not have even been aware of Wynne’s concession as it happened around 11am and not everyone is glued to the. Eww all day. I think the full impact of her surrender would take at least another day or two to sink in

A fair number will switch for PC, my parents included.

[lilTommy]

And let’s keep in mind that on Saturday a lot of voters not have even been aware of Wynne’s concession as it happened around 11am and not everyone is glued to the. Eww all day. I think the full impact of her surrender would take at least another day or two to sink in

A fair number will switch for PC, my parents included.

Liberal voters still 2nd preference the NDP by about 40-60% vs the PCs where I have seen it range from 10-20%.
It will come down to a) who is more motivated to vote, anti-ford or anti-NDP forces within all camps. b) who sticks with the OLP, is it left leaning or right-leaning Liberals that stick with the party. c) can the NDP motivate the youth vote out, like in 2015 for the Fed. Liberals.

[Hatman 🍁]

Article about the NDP's prospects in Downtown Toronto: https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2018/06/02/ndp-eyes-sweep-of-torontos-downtown-ridings.html

Only posted it because there are a few quotes from me in it

[lilTommy]

A nice review of how diverse the slates are: https://ipolitics.ca/2018/06/04/campaign-notebook-ndp-lead-with-diverse-candidates-liberals-pcs-close-behind/

nothing new really, BUT did you see the leaders schedules? stark differences:

"The NDP start day 27 of the campaign with an aggressive push through opposition territory. Horwath will make five stops on Monday in London North Centre (empty Liberal seat), Sarnia—Lambton (PC seat), Chatham-Kent—Leamington (PC seat), Elgin—Middlesex—London (PC seat), and Oxford (PC seat).

Tory Leader Doug Ford has just one event on his itinerary. He will start the day with an announcement in the empty Liberal seat of Scarborough Centre. The party says he’ll be making more stops with candidates and volunteers but journalists aren’t getting a heads up about those events."

- PCs playing safe front-runner?, NDP going all out trying to capitalize on Wynne's concession?

[PeteB]

In any race where the Liberals are possibly in contention, it's going to be close, as no Liberal is headed for a landslide victory (in other words, there are no absolutely, truly safe seats for the Liberals right now).  Another party can't be so far ahead, because personal popularity and strategic voting and so on aren't going to make up for all of that.  The Liberals will prevail because at least one party is very weak and/or another under-performs for some reason.  

In addition, some other criteria:

1.  A lot of "too educated to vote Ford, too rich to vote NDP" types (this may prove the most reliable Liberal constituency)

2.  A riding where the Liberal is clearly best positioned to defeat the Conservative or where the Conservatives have no chance

3.  Extraordinary personal popularity or at least enough to tip the vote in a close race.  Personal popularity matters more in rural and northern ridings

4.  Not too vulnerable to the NDP pulling votes from the Liberals en masse

Using PeteB's Liberal possibilities.

Toronto St. Paul's

Liberal candidate: Jess Spindler

NDP surprisingly close to the Liberals, but the Liberals have the advantage of this being a horrible fit for Ford.  Has 1 in spades, Conservatives can't win it, candidate is a political neophyte, vulnerable on the left but probably not enough to lose because of the weaknesses of the PCs.  So overall, likely Liberal hold.

Don Valley West

Liberal candidate: Premier Kathleen Wynne

Liberal-PC race with very weak NDP potential and PCs under-performing.  Has 1 in spades.  2, yes.  3, absolutely yes.  4, certainly yes.  So overall, likely Liberal hold.

Don Valley East

Liberal candidate: Michael Coteau
A real three-way race.  1, somewhat.  2, perhaps.  3, somewhat. 4, somewhat.  So overall, possible Liberal hold.

Don Valley North

Liberal candidate: Shelley Carroll

Liberal vs. PC race but PCs may be too far ahead.  1, not really.  2, yes.  3, yes.  4, yes.  So overall, Shelley Carroll is an appealing candidate for the riding and clearly the anti-PC candidate, but probably too far behind PCs, so probably not.

Scarborough Guildwood

Liberal candidate: Mitzie Hunter
Three way race, without a strong PC candidate and an invisible NDP.  1, nope.  2, somewhat.  3, yes.  4, hard to say.  Overall, it's the last Scarborough seat to fall, but don't think it's that special.

Eglinton Lawrence

Liberal candidate: Mike Colle

NDP is traditionally very weak but apparently surging and not a good fit for Ford.  1, yes.  2, yes.  3, yes. 4, possibly.  Definitely one of the better bets for the Liberals, but nothing is certain.

Toronto Centre

Liberal candidate: David Morris

Big NDP surge in the riding, Liberals may not be in contention at all, Conservatives not a factor.  1, yes, somewhat.  2, yes.  3, no (no Liberal incumbent or star candidate).  4, definitely vulnerable.  Overall, this looks like an NDP pickup.

University-Rosedale

Liberal candidate: Jo-Ann Davis

Very large NDP/Liberal swing vote in riding, Conservatives not a factor.  1, somewhat.  2, yes.  3, no incumbent or star candidate.  4, definitely vulnerable.  Overall, looks like an NDP pickup.

Spadina Ft. York

Liberal candidate: Han Dong

Very large NDP/Liberal swing vote in riding, Conservatives not a factor.  1, somewhat.  2, yes.  3, not really.  4, definitely vulnerable.  Overall, looks like an NDP pickup.

Willowdale

Liberal candidate: David Zimmer

Traditionally a Liberal/Conservative riding with weak NDP, but NDP slightly ahead of the Liberals.  1, somewhat.  2, not clear.  3, probably not.  4, very vulnerable.  Overall, hard to see Liberals keeping this, though not impossible.

Etobicoke Lakeshore

Liberal candidate: Peter Milczyn

PC-NDP race with Liberals clearly in third.  Next!

Vaughan-Woodbridge

Liberal candidate: Steven Del Duca

NDP is very weak, no reason to believe PCs are underperforming because of Ford as Ford is a better fit for the riding than a generic PC leader. 1, definitely not.  2, yes.  3, not enough to tip a double digit PC lead in a 905 riding.  4, NDP is weak and probably won't make or break the Liberals.  Overall, almost certainly not.

Hamilton West Ancaster Dundas

Liberal candidate: Ted McMeekin

KW has made some appearances with McMeekin recently.  Bad fit for Ford but progressive vote is moving en masse to the NDP.  Next!

Mississauga Centre

Liberal candidate: Bobbie Daid (had to look this up)

New riding.  Liberals may benefit from "anti-poppy" NDP candidate but that just splits the vote and helps the PCs.  So probably not.

Mississauga East Cooksville

Liberal candidate:  Damerla Dapeka

Traditionally Liberal-Conservative with weak NDP, seems somewhat vulnerable to vote-splitting, more Fordian than generic PC.  Not going to bother going through the rest here.
  
Mississauga Malton

Liberal candidate: Amrit Mangat

Traditionally Liberal-Conservative, but with NDP base from Jagmeet Singh's territory moved into the riding.  1, definitely not.  2, not clear at all.  3, definitely not.  4, NDP could win this if things go well.  Likely PC pickup due to vote-splitting, and NDP seems more likely to take it than the Liberals.

17. St. Catharines

Liberal candidate: Jim Bradley

A Jim Bradley riding, not a traditional Liberal riding, but it looks like he's in third.  Personal popularity doesn't look like it will save him.  Polling says it'll go NDP, PCs more likely to take it than Bradley.  It would be a stunner, but one of the most likely non-GTA/non-Ottawa/non-Thunder Bay holdouts.

Thunder Bay Superior North and Thunder Bay Atikokan

Liberal candidates: Michael Gravelle and Bill Mauro

Personal popularity, not riding demographics or popularity of the Liberals make these Liberal held.  Personal popularity matters far more in Northern Ontario than in the GTA.  They could hold on, but also lose to the NDP.

Ottawa Vanier

Liberal candidate:  Nathalie Des Rosiers

Good case for being the safest Liberal riding in the province, will go NDP before it goes Conservative.  Has 1 in spades.  2, yes.  3, Lib MPP is respected but it's the deep history not the candidate doing.  4, maybe with a better candiate.  Overall, likely Liberal hold.

Ottawa Centre

Liberal candidate: Yasir Naqvi

Liberal/NDP swing riding.  1, no the educated and professional classes have no problem voting NDP here.  2, yes.  3, Naqvi = Paul Dewar.  4, absolutely yes.  Going NDP.

Ottawa South

Liberal candidate: John Fraser

Looks like a genuine three-way race, with NDP polling surprisingly well.  1, somewhat. 2, unclear. 3, not clear.  4, probably not.  Overall, a bit of a crapshoot where anyone can prevail, Liberal hold is certainly possible.

Glengarry Prescott Russell

Liberal candidate: Pierre Leroux

Very popular mayor running for the Liberals, NDP has no chance.  Hard to see a riding like this going Liberal, but I guess in the unlikelihood of a rural Liberal out it'll be this one.

I looked at your list and am in general agreement with the logic but I do believe that there is a "shy Liberal" vote out there.  I also believe that there is a fifth criteria for the Liberals winning seats - places where the Liberals are not viewed so negatively and where their previous majorities were high.

So, in addition to 5-6 seats you identified as likely holds (St. Paul's, DVW, DVE, Eglinton Lawrence, Ottawa Vanier, one TB seat), I would suggest the following are also likely to stay Liberal:

1. Inner TO ridings (Toronto Centre, University Rosedale, Spadina Ft. York) - there is no real reason for these to flip to the NDP.  The voters there are not necessarily unhappy with the Liberals, there is no PC threat at all, and the previous Liberal majorities were massive (in some cases 50%+).  I would expect the Liberals to hold at least two out of the three.

2. Unlike other people here, I also do NOT believe that the NDP will do well in Mississauga.  I hate to bring ethnicity and religion into this, but things that help the NDP in several Brampton ridings (strong support of the Sikh community) will imho hurt them in Mississauga. As a result, I believe that the Liberals could hold some or all of the three ridings.  Mississauga Centre (Anti-Poppy candidate running for the NDP and PC on their third candidate after dispensing of Granic Allen) is a prime target.  It's a binary PC-Liberal race with lots of condo dwellers who may view the Liberals as a better choice.  Mississauga East Cooksville has the Minister for Seniors and Long Term Care Dipika Damerla running - I wouldn't underestimate her chances there.  Malton is also more in tune with the Liberals than the NDP (although if the NDP wins any Mississauga seats, this would be the one).  So I would chalk up one or two seats for the Liberals here.

So according to this (which you may not agree with ), the Liberals would be at 9-10 seats.  They also have a fair chance in at least 10 other ridings (DVN, Willowdale, Scarborough Guildwood, Vaughan Woodbridge, Ottawa South, Ottawa Centre, Ottawa Orleans, St. Catharines, GPR and the other Thunder Bay seat).  Assuming they win just 2 of them, they could be at 12 seats, and we can talk about a potential minority situation, assuming NDP does well in the rest of the province.

[ON Progressive]

"The NDP start day 27 of the campaign with an aggressive push through opposition territory. Horwath will make five stops on Monday in London North Centre (empty Liberal seat), Sarnia—Lambton (PC seat), Chatham-Kent—Leamington (PC seat), Elgin—Middlesex—London (PC seat), and Oxford (PC seat).

Interesting list. London North Centre, Sarnia-Lambton, and Chatham-Kent-Leamington are certainly must gets for the NDP.

Elgin-Middlesex-London and Oxford are both surprises. If the NDP are winning either, they are well into majority territory in my view. I would know, I live in one of them.

[PeteB]

"The NDP start day 27 of the campaign with an aggressive push through opposition territory. Horwath will make five stops on Monday in London North Centre (empty Liberal seat), Sarnia—Lambton (PC seat), Chatham-Kent—Leamington (PC seat), Elgin—Middlesex—London (PC seat), and Oxford (PC seat).

Interesting list. London North Centre, Sarnia-Lambton, and Chatham-Kent-Leamington are certainly must gets for the NDP.

Elgin-Middlesex-London and Oxford are both surprises. If the NDP are winning either, they are well into majority territory in my view. I would know, I live in one of them.

The NDP would win 95 other seats, before winning Oxford (or EML for that matter).  Horwath's campaign is probably just using her presence in SW to get some PR across the region.  It also doesn't hurt the NDP's credibility to be seen as interested in rural seats.  They won't win, but it is useful.

[ON Progressive]

"The NDP start day 27 of the campaign with an aggressive push through opposition territory. Horwath will make five stops on Monday in London North Centre (empty Liberal seat), Sarnia—Lambton (PC seat), Chatham-Kent—Leamington (PC seat), Elgin—Middlesex—London (PC seat), and Oxford (PC seat).

Interesting list. London North Centre, Sarnia-Lambton, and Chatham-Kent-Leamington are certainly must gets for the NDP.

Elgin-Middlesex-London and Oxford are both surprises. If the NDP are winning either, they are well into majority territory in my view. I would know, I live in one of them.

The NDP would win 95 other seats, before winning Oxford (or EML for that matter).  Horwath's campaign is probably just using her presence in SW to get some PR across the region.  It also doesn't hurt the NDP's credibility to be seen as interested in rural seats.  They won't win, but it is useful.

I agree with you.

Just talking about my riding, Woodstock is still quite conservative (I calculated the Woodstock #s earlier, it went 41-28 PC vs. NDP in 2014), and as long as that stays true, there's no path for anyone else to win Oxford. The rural areas can give the PCs over 60% in many cases too.

Ingersoll is the closest thing to an NDP stronghold (the NDP won there 39-33 over the PCs in 2014), but it's too small to make up for Woodstock at all.

[lilTommy]

In any race where the Liberals are possibly in contention, it's going to be close, as no Liberal is headed for a landslide victory (in other words, there are no absolutely, truly safe seats for the Liberals right now).  Another party can't be so far ahead, because personal popularity and strategic voting and so on aren't going to make up for all of that.  The Liberals will prevail because at least one party is very weak and/or another under-performs for some reason.  

In addition, some other criteria:

1.  A lot of "too educated to vote Ford, too rich to vote NDP" types (this may prove the most reliable Liberal constituency)

2.  A riding where the Liberal is clearly best positioned to defeat the Conservative or where the Conservatives have no chance

3.  Extraordinary personal popularity or at least enough to tip the vote in a close race.  Personal popularity matters more in rural and northern ridings

4.  Not too vulnerable to the NDP pulling votes from the Liberals en masse

Using PeteB's Liberal possibilities.

Toronto St. Paul's

Liberal candidate: Jess Spindler

NDP surprisingly close to the Liberals, but the Liberals have the advantage of this being a horrible fit for Ford.  Has 1 in spades, Conservatives can't win it, candidate is a political neophyte, vulnerable on the left but probably not enough to lose because of the weaknesses of the PCs.  So overall, likely Liberal hold.

Don Valley West

Liberal candidate: Premier Kathleen Wynne

Liberal-PC race with very weak NDP potential and PCs under-performing.  Has 1 in spades.  2, yes.  3, absolutely yes.  4, certainly yes.  So overall, likely Liberal hold.

Don Valley East

Liberal candidate: Michael Coteau
A real three-way race.  1, somewhat.  2, perhaps.  3, somewhat. 4, somewhat.  So overall, possible Liberal hold.

Don Valley North

Liberal candidate: Shelley Carroll

Liberal vs. PC race but PCs may be too far ahead.  1, not really.  2, yes.  3, yes.  4, yes.  So overall, Shelley Carroll is an appealing candidate for the riding and clearly the anti-PC candidate, but probably too far behind PCs, so probably not.

Scarborough Guildwood

Liberal candidate: Mitzie Hunter
Three way race, without a strong PC candidate and an invisible NDP.  1, nope.  2, somewhat.  3, yes.  4, hard to say.  Overall, it's the last Scarborough seat to fall, but don't think it's that special.

Eglinton Lawrence

Liberal candidate: Mike Colle

NDP is traditionally very weak but apparently surging and not a good fit for Ford.  1, yes.  2, yes.  3, yes. 4, possibly.  Definitely one of the better bets for the Liberals, but nothing is certain.

Toronto Centre

Liberal candidate: David Morris

Big NDP surge in the riding, Liberals may not be in contention at all, Conservatives not a factor.  1, yes, somewhat.  2, yes.  3, no (no Liberal incumbent or star candidate).  4, definitely vulnerable.  Overall, this looks like an NDP pickup.

University-Rosedale

Liberal candidate: Jo-Ann Davis

Very large NDP/Liberal swing vote in riding, Conservatives not a factor.  1, somewhat.  2, yes.  3, no incumbent or star candidate.  4, definitely vulnerable.  Overall, looks like an NDP pickup.

Spadina Ft. York

Liberal candidate: Han Dong

Very large NDP/Liberal swing vote in riding, Conservatives not a factor.  1, somewhat.  2, yes.  3, not really.  4, definitely vulnerable.  Overall, looks like an NDP pickup.

Willowdale

Liberal candidate: David Zimmer

Traditionally a Liberal/Conservative riding with weak NDP, but NDP slightly ahead of the Liberals.  1, somewhat.  2, not clear.  3, probably not.  4, very vulnerable.  Overall, hard to see Liberals keeping this, though not impossible.

Etobicoke Lakeshore

Liberal candidate: Peter Milczyn

PC-NDP race with Liberals clearly in third.  Next!

Vaughan-Woodbridge

Liberal candidate: Steven Del Duca

NDP is very weak, no reason to believe PCs are underperforming because of Ford as Ford is a better fit for the riding than a generic PC leader. 1, definitely not.  2, yes.  3, not enough to tip a double digit PC lead in a 905 riding.  4, NDP is weak and probably won't make or break the Liberals.  Overall, almost certainly not.

Hamilton West Ancaster Dundas

Liberal candidate: Ted McMeekin

KW has made some appearances with McMeekin recently.  Bad fit for Ford but progressive vote is moving en masse to the NDP.  Next!

Mississauga Centre

Liberal candidate: Bobbie Daid (had to look this up)

New riding.  Liberals may benefit from "anti-poppy" NDP candidate but that just splits the vote and helps the PCs.  So probably not.

Mississauga East Cooksville

Liberal candidate:  Damerla Dapeka

Traditionally Liberal-Conservative with weak NDP, seems somewhat vulnerable to vote-splitting, more Fordian than generic PC.  Not going to bother going through the rest here.
  
Mississauga Malton

Liberal candidate: Amrit Mangat

Traditionally Liberal-Conservative, but with NDP base from Jagmeet Singh's territory moved into the riding.  1, definitely not.  2, not clear at all.  3, definitely not.  4, NDP could win this if things go well.  Likely PC pickup due to vote-splitting, and NDP seems more likely to take it than the Liberals.

17. St. Catharines

Liberal candidate: Jim Bradley

A Jim Bradley riding, not a traditional Liberal riding, but it looks like he's in third.  Personal popularity doesn't look like it will save him.  Polling says it'll go NDP, PCs more likely to take it than Bradley.  It would be a stunner, but one of the most likely non-GTA/non-Ottawa/non-Thunder Bay holdouts.

Thunder Bay Superior North and Thunder Bay Atikokan

Liberal candidates: Michael Gravelle and Bill Mauro

Personal popularity, not riding demographics or popularity of the Liberals make these Liberal held.  Personal popularity matters far more in Northern Ontario than in the GTA.  They could hold on, but also lose to the NDP.

Ottawa Vanier

Liberal candidate:  Nathalie Des Rosiers

Good case for being the safest Liberal riding in the province, will go NDP before it goes Conservative.  Has 1 in spades.  2, yes.  3, Lib MPP is respected but it's the deep history not the candidate doing.  4, maybe with a better candiate.  Overall, likely Liberal hold.

Ottawa Centre

Liberal candidate: Yasir Naqvi

Liberal/NDP swing riding.  1, no the educated and professional classes have no problem voting NDP here.  2, yes.  3, Naqvi = Paul Dewar.  4, absolutely yes.  Going NDP.

Ottawa South

Liberal candidate: John Fraser

Looks like a genuine three-way race, with NDP polling surprisingly well.  1, somewhat. 2, unclear. 3, not clear.  4, probably not.  Overall, a bit of a crapshoot where anyone can prevail, Liberal hold is certainly possible.

Glengarry Prescott Russell

Liberal candidate: Pierre Leroux

Very popular mayor running for the Liberals, NDP has no chance.  Hard to see a riding like this going Liberal, but I guess in the unlikelihood of a rural Liberal out it'll be this one.

I looked at your list and am in general agreement with the logic but I do believe that there is a "shy Liberal" vote out there.  I also believe that there is a fifth criteria for the Liberals winning seats - places where the Liberals are not viewed so negatively and where their previous majorities were high.

So, in addition to 5-6 seats you identified as likely holds (St. Paul's, DVW, DVE, Eglinton Lawrence, Ottawa Vanier, one TB seat), I would suggest the following are also likely to stay Liberal:

1. Inner TO ridings (Toronto Centre, University Rosedale, Spadina Ft. York) - there is no real reason for these to flip to the NDP.  The voters there are not necessarily unhappy with the Liberals, there is no PC threat at all, and the previous Liberal majorities were massive (in some cases 50%+).  I would expect the Liberals to hold at least two out of the three.

2. Unlike other people here, I also do NOT believe that the NDP will do well in Mississauga.  I hate to bring ethnicity and religion into this, but things that help the NDP in several Brampton ridings (strong support of the Sikh community) will imho hurt them in Mississauga. As a result, I believe that the Liberals could hold some or all of the three ridings.  Mississauga Centre (Anti-Poppy candidate running for the NDP and PC on their third candidate after dispensing of Granic Allen) is a prime target.  It's a binary PC-Liberal race with lots of condo dwellers who may view the Liberals as a better choice.  Mississauga East Cooksville has the Minister for Seniors and Long Term Care Dipika Damerla running - I wouldn't underestimate her chances there.  Malton is also more in tune with the Liberals than the NDP (although if the NDP wins any Mississauga seats, this would be the one).  So I would chalk up one or two seats for the Liberals here.

So according to this (which you may not agree with ), the Liberals would be at 9-10 seats.  They also have a fair chance in at least 10 other ridings (DVN, Willowdale, Scarborough Guildwood, Vaughan Woodbridge, Ottawa South, Ottawa Centre, Ottawa Orleans, St. Catharines, GPR and the other Thunder Bay seat).  Assuming they win just 2 of them, they could be at 12 seats, and we can talk about a potential minority situation, assuming NDP does well in the rest of the province.

1 - Inner TO; I disagree, there is a very noticeable swing against the Liberals in Toronto and in the DT, upwards of 15 points to the NDP from polling. There is Liberal fatigue and frustration, not so much out-right anger. Had the PC nominated Elliott or even Mulroney I'd be more willing to agree. But I'm hearing/feeling a very big anti-ford push and before this there was some support moving back to the NDP especially with the platform (this is why Daveport and Beaches-East York were so heavily targeted). Remember the OLP basically began to introduce the NDP platform (Pharmacare kinda, $15min.wage for some, etc) it is very easy for left-Liberals to shift to the NDP. Yes I think all three will go NDP. These three ridings are progressive swingers, in 2011 Fed the area voted heavily NDP (baring Rosedale) and would have won the newly configured TO Centre back then (I believe that was stated). Two of the three have no OLP incumbent and the NDP are running very very aggressively. These three area all lean-advantage NDP.

2 - I agree, Mississauga I just can't see the NDP winning much or anything, barring Malton as the only NDP chance, the party should basically run everything they can there, but the NDP is better to forcus their resources in Brampton. Brampton is where I think the NDP has a change to win 4 of the 5 if they begin to strategically work.  

[PeteB]

Finally some US flavor to the campaign . 

Gun control as an election issue - Liberals release audio of an NRA-sounding Doug Ford.  Ford quickly claims he is in favor of gun control.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4250791/doug-ford-gun-control-audio/

[King of Kensington]

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Correction: PC candidate is a thug.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-police-probe-officer-and-pc-candidate-who-appeared-to-threaten-voter-over-debate-attendance-1.4690623

[ON Progressive]

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Correction: PC candidate is a thug.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-police-probe-officer-and-pc-candidate-who-appeared-to-threaten-voter-over-debate-attendance-1.4690623

Yikes. Unfortunate it had to come out after a lot of people have already voted.

[RogueBeaver]

Pollara shows Doug extending his 905 and Eastern leads, NDP in SW.

[Krago]

Pollara shows Doug extending his 905 and Eastern leads, NDP in SW.

'Doug' and 'NDP'?  You must work in the Liberal war room.