Ontario 2018 election

[ON Progressive]

Nothing too surprising, really. Still not good news for the NDP's chances. Have to hope Mainstreet is indeed underpolling them.

I would say the PCs leading in Kenora-Rainy River (a 55% NDP seat) would be extremely surprising.

[PeteB]

Today's Mainstreet riding polls are fantastic if you're a Conservative.  The idea of a rural orange wave across Southern Ontario a la '90 (which was far less probable in today's circumstances) looks like a pure fantasy at this point.  Also, the PCs are ahead in Kenora and Sault Ste. Marie.

It's very difficult to think of many PC seats that the NDP are poised to take.

Mainstreet riding polls have a very long history of underestimating left wing support (see: BC election)

What was wrong with the Mainstreet polls yesterday, when they showed NDP capturing Kingston and the Islands ?

All snarkiness aside, I keep saying that the determined PC vote share has been stable (33-37%) throughout this campaign, and that it does not look like there will be an orange wave (unless Ford does something stupid - always a possibility, but hardly a strategy). 

PC has a structural advantage in rural seats, and there is too little time for the NDP to make that up, and too little credibility for the Liberals to do something about it.  So rather than daydreaming about taking seats like Whitby or Elgin Middlesex London, NDP should have a plan how to efficiently win as many "winnable" seats as possible, and how to ensure that it becomes the minority government.

The key is to keep PC below 63 seats, which will involve, like it or not, keeping Liberals above official party status.  If the Liberals and NDP keep splitting the vote, PC could form a majority government even with 34-35% of the vote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Elections are not strategy games!

[DL]

Today's Mainstreet riding polls are fantastic if you're a Conservative.  The idea of a rural orange wave across Southern Ontario a la '90 (which was far less probable in today's circumstances) looks like a pure fantasy at this point.  Also, the PCs are ahead in Kenora and Sault Ste. Marie.

It's very difficult to think of many PC seats that the NDP are poised to take.

Two points:

1. Northern seats like Kenora have very very large First nation populations often living on reserves and they tend to be very difficult to capture in polls - especially IVR polls

2. There aren't many current PC seats where the NDP could win, given that 2014 was a very bad year for the PCs, but there are a couple: Sarnia-Lambton and Kitchener-Conestoga are a definite possibilities according to the polls and Chatham-Kent-Leamington is clearly a top target...and the riding polls today have the NDP surprisingly competitive against Fedeli in Nipissing

[mileslunn]

I think there is a strong urban/rural split.  It seems if you look at topline numbers, PC vote not too far off what the Tories were federally in 2015 asides from the GTA and its really Liberals and NDP being swapped.  As for Northern Ontario, Sault Ste. Marie usually votes more for candidate than party so it could easily back the trend.  Kenora-Rainy River is so far removed as well as Greg Rickford was a former MP while the NDP has a no name.  The PCs might have a slightly easier path to power, but if the NDP can get a 3-4 point lead they can win.  The one thing the NDP has is it appears more undecideds are breaking for them.  The bad news for them is PC voters are more motivated to show up so turnout will be key.  The higher the turnout the better the NDP odds are.  The lower the turnout the better the PC odds are.

[mileslunn]

Today's Mainstreet riding polls are fantastic if you're a Conservative.  The idea of a rural orange wave across Southern Ontario a la '90 (which was far less probable in today's circumstances) looks like a pure fantasy at this point.  Also, the PCs are ahead in Kenora and Sault Ste. Marie.

It's very difficult to think of many PC seats that the NDP are poised to take.

Two points:

1. Northern seats like Kenora have very very large First nation populations often living on reserves and they tend to be very difficult to capture in polls - especially IVR polls

2. There aren't many current PC seats where the NDP could win, given that 2014 was a very bad year for the PCs, but there are a couple: Sarnia-Lambton and Kitchener-Conestoga are a definite possibilities according to the polls and Chatham-Kent-Leamington is clearly a top target...and the riding polls today have the NDP surprisingly competitive against Fedeli in Nipissing

I am a progressive conservative, but would be fine if NDP won Kitchener-Conestoga as long as they don't win a majority overall.  Mike Harris has been a huge anchor on the party and the sooner the party can banish anything connected to him the better.  He basically tried to copy Reagan and Thatcher forgetting the US has a much stronger libertarian streak than we do in Canada while in the UK, they were in a much bigger mess than us while Labour back in the 80s was far more radical than any party we've had in the past 50 years.

[King of Kensington]

The NDP seems to be making major gains among urban voters, the young, the well educated, the "liberally minded" and to some extent ethnic minorities - constituencies the Liberals ate their lunch in during the last election.  Meanwhile they're competing with Ford for the working class vote, they're not anywhere close to "owning" it.

In other words, they are barely taking from the PC side at all.  This line about all these "traditional Tories appalled by Ford voting for Andrea Horwath" doesn't seem to be producing any meaningful gains.   I think there are very few voters who stuck with Hudak last time who have any problem voting for the party under Ford.  Like the "never Trump" Republicans, it didn't amount to much.  

[ON Progressive]

I don't understand why Canada has no live caller polls like the US does. The fact IVR polls are our best polls is rather sad.

[PeteB]

Nothing too surprising, really. Still not good news for the NDP's chances. Have to hope Mainstreet is indeed underpolling them.

I would say the PCs leading in Kenora-Rainy River (a 55% NDP seat) would be extremely surprising.

Agreed, although I am not sure PC can actually win that seat - NDP should be able to hold them off, although Rickford (the PC candidate) is well regarded up there, and the (reliably NDP) FN reserves that used to be in this riding ar now no longer here and are part of the new riding.  

Romano's lead in SSM is less of a surprise (at least to me).  With incumbency, certainty of a Ministerial position if PC forms government, and the support of steel unions, I can see him carrying the Soo.

But yesterday's Northern region breakdown by Global News (where PC was leading NDP by 39:35) should have rung the alarm bells in Horwarth's camp!

[DL]

The NDP seems to be making major gains among urban voters, the young, the well educated, the "liberally minded" and to some extent ethnic minorities - constituencies the Liberals ate their lunch in during the last election.  Meanwhile they're competing with Ford for the working class vote, they're not anywhere close to "owning" it.

In other words, they are barely taking from the PC side at all.  This line about all these "traditional Tories appalled by Ford voting for Andrea Horwath" doesn't seem to be producing any meaningful gains.   I think there are very few voters who stuck with Hudak last time who have any problem voting for the party under Ford.  Like the "never Trump" Republicans, it didn't amount to much.  

Keep in mind that in 2014 the PCs were at a very low 31%...I doubt if the NDP gains much from people who were willing to vote for the PCs under Tim "let's fire 100,000 people" Hudak. BUT, the PC are polling at about 37% in most polls now...who are those people who are taking them from 31% to 37%? Clearly the vast majority voted Liberal in 2014 and the NDP could be able to intercept some of that crowd...

[King of Kensington]

I agree.  Hudak ran on a hyper-austerity program loved by people in right-wing tanks and the Financial Post editorial board, but had no popular appeal whatsoever.

I'm not surprised that orthodox conservatism is less popular than Ford's pandering of "I'll save billions of dollars by getting rid of waste, not harm essential services and still provide lower taxes, cheap beer, subways etc."

[mileslunn]

The NDP seems to be making major gains among urban voters, the young, the well educated, the "liberally minded" and to some extent ethnic minorities - constituencies the Liberals ate their lunch in during the last election.  Meanwhile they're competing with Ford for the working class vote, they're not anywhere close to "owning" it.

In other words, they are barely taking from the PC side at all.  This line about all these "traditional Tories appalled by Ford voting for Andrea Horwath" doesn't seem to be producing any meaningful gains.   I think there are very few voters who stuck with Hudak last time who have any problem voting for the party under Ford.  Like the "never Trump" Republicans, it didn't amount to much.  

PCs haven't dropped in polls in total support, what has changed is the undecided has fallen and that has gone overwhelmingly NDP.  As the undecided falls, one's poll numbers will go down if they aren't picking up their fair share of them which is the case with the PCs.

[PeteB]

I agree.  Hudak ran on a hyper-austerity program loved by people in right-wing tanks and the Financial Post editorial board, but had no popular appeal whatsoever.

I'm not surprised that orthodox conservatism is less popular than Ford's pandering of "I'll save billions of dollars by getting rid of waste, not harm essential services and still provide lower taxes, cheap beer, subways etc."

Don't forget the 10c/l gas reduction, firing the $ 6M man, and the tax breaks for veteran's buildings (Legion Halls) .

[lilTommy]

The NDP seems to be making major gains among urban voters, the young, the well educated, the "liberally minded" and to some extent ethnic minorities - constituencies the Liberals ate their lunch in during the last election.  Meanwhile they're competing with Ford for the working class vote, they're not anywhere close to "owning" it.

In other words, they are barely taking from the PC side at all.  This line about all these "traditional Tories appalled by Ford voting for Andrea Horwath" doesn't seem to be producing any meaningful gains.   I think there are very few voters who stuck with Hudak last time who have any problem voting for the party under Ford.  Like the "never Trump" Republicans, it didn't amount to much.  

Keep in mind that in 2014 the PCs were at a very low 31%...I doubt if the NDP gains much from people who were willing to vote for the PCs under Tim "let's fire 100,000 people" Hudak. BUT, the PC are polling at about 37% in most polls now...who are those people who are taking them from 31% to 37%? Clearly the vast majority voted Liberal in 2014 and the NDP could be able to intercept some of that crowd...

It's all Liberal collapse,
PC - 31% - 37% +6
NDP - 23% - 39% +16
OLP - 38% - 16% -22

about 60-70% of the Liberal vote is going NDP, but the PCs are attracting 30% or so. Other then Chatham-Kent-Leamington (which also leans NDP due to redistribution) Sarnia-Lambton is the only PC seat "maybe" within NDP reach, unless the PC vote start to collapse to under 40%, closer to 35% in the SW.
The PCs are vulnerable though, since they have nothing costed, listed no way they are saving Billions, Fords tried this and it FAILED in TO, they did not save anything without cutting revenues and services and raising taxes.

[PeteB]

The NDP seems to be making major gains among urban voters, the young, the well educated, the "liberally minded" and to some extent ethnic minorities - constituencies the Liberals ate their lunch in during the last election.  Meanwhile they're competing with Ford for the working class vote, they're not anywhere close to "owning" it.

In other words, they are barely taking from the PC side at all.  This line about all these "traditional Tories appalled by Ford voting for Andrea Horwath" doesn't seem to be producing any meaningful gains.   I think there are very few voters who stuck with Hudak last time who have any problem voting for the party under Ford.  Like the "never Trump" Republicans, it didn't amount to much.  

Keep in mind that in 2014 the PCs were at a very low 31%...I doubt if the NDP gains much from people who were willing to vote for the PCs under Tim "let's fire 100,000 people" Hudak. BUT, the PC are polling at about 37% in most polls now...who are those people who are taking them from 31% to 37%? Clearly the vast majority voted Liberal in 2014 and the NDP could be able to intercept some of that crowd...

It's all Liberal collapse,
PC - 31% - 37% +6
NDP - 23% - 39% +16
OLP - 38% - 16% -22

about 60-70% of the Liberal vote is going NDP, but the PCs are attracting 30% or so. Other then Chatham-Kent-Leamington (which also leans NDP due to redistribution) Sarnia-Lambton is the only PC seat "maybe" within NDP reach, unless the PC vote start to collapse to under 40%, closer to 35% in the SW.
The PCs are vulnerable though, since they have nothing costed, listed no way they are saving Billions, Fords tried this and it FAILED in TO, they did not save anything without cutting revenues and services and raising taxes.

For a change, I will argue that NDP has a decent chance in taking two more PC seats, in addition to SL and CKL, both in Kitchener - Conestoga and South Hespeler.  They also have a chance (although not that great) of taking SSM, Durham and Flamborough Glanbrook.  So they could finish with a pickup of  up to 7 PC seats.  The more realistic scenario is that they pick up 3-4.  At worst, they should maybe lose just one seat to PC (Kenora Rainy River), so the net gain PC->NDP will be 3+.  But will it be enough?

[DL]

FYI, Kitchener South-Hespeler is a new seat but is notionally Liberal based on 2014 results that it would not be a gain from the PCs. Also, Durham is a Liberal seat currently

[DL]

New poll by Innovative all post-debate

NDP 36% (up 5)
PCs 34% (down 1)
Libs 22% (down 4)

and people who saw any of the debate saw it as a tie between Wynne and Horwath with Ford a distant third

https://innovativeresearch.ca/election-tracking-wave-4-the-ndp-move-ahead/?utm_campaign=Sample%20-%20My%20first%20inbound%20campaign%20in%20HubSpot&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

[King of Kensington]

FYI, Kitchener South-Hespeler is a new seat but is notionally Liberal based on 2014 results that it would not be a gain from the PCs. Also, Durham is a Liberal seat currently

Durham was one of those "but Hudak went too far" losses.  Being in the Oshawa orbit (another "Hudak went too far" loss), they may not be able to regain the seat.  It could be an NDP pickup.  It's certainly not going Liberal again!

[PeteB]

FYI, Kitchener South-Hespeler is a new seat but is notionally Liberal based on 2014 results that it would not be a gain from the PCs. Also, Durham is a Liberal seat currently

In fact, both seats were arrived through redistricting, from seats that were held by both PC and Liberals.  65% of the KSH was held by PC and just about 5% of Durham was part of the old PC-held Whitby-Oshawa riding.  Still, I probably factually erred by calling them PC, just because they had some previous PC presence. 

[DL]

Pollara:

NDP 43% (up 5)
PCs 32% (down 5)
Liberals 17% (down 1)

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-poll-the-ndp-lead-keeps-growing/

This is real. People are saying NDP = No Doug Party!!!

[King of Kensington]

Pollara:

NDP 43% (up 5)
PCs 32% (down 5)
Liberals 17% (down 1)

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-poll-the-ndp-lead-keeps-growing/

This is real. People are saying NDP = No Doug Party!!!

If true, there goes that "structural advantage"!

[mileslunn]

Innovative and Mainstreet subscriber had polls during the same period of time and showed much tighter race so skeptical about Pollara for now, but perhaps they are picking up on early shifts others haven't yet.  Next few days will be key.  My gut feeling is the NDP will win by 3-4 points and a narrow majority, but that is just a gut feeling.

[_]

Pollara:

NDP 43% (up 5)
PCs 32% (down 5)
Liberals 17% (down 1)

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-poll-the-ndp-lead-keeps-growing/

This is real. People are saying NDP = No Doug Party!!!

If it's real there goes any advantage the PCs had in vote distribution

[mileslunn]

Steve Paikin just tweeted that Polly at Advanced Symbolics in their AI tracking shows the NDP has peaked and fallen back a bit.  Mainstreet has claimed to see the same thing while Innovative and Pollara showing the opposite, but Ipsos although pre-debate showing.  It seems things are all over the place although I've seen this quite often in the final week on elections and I suspect by weekend you will see polls start to converge.  I guess if there is one positive with these numbers, people will realize there are almost no safe ridings perhaps asides from the NDP held ones so more people will get out to vote realizing their vote might actually matter.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nothing too surprising, really. Still not good news for the NDP's chances. Have to hope Mainstreet is indeed underpolling them.

I would say the PCs leading in Kenora-Rainy River (a 55% NDP seat) would be extremely surprising.

Considering I predicted the PCs would win it in the other thread, it is not in the least bit surprising. Greg Rickford, the riding's former MP is the PC candidate. How well did he do in 2011? That's right. We know how well he can do against an orange wave.