Ontario 2018 election

[DC Al Fine]

I really, really doubt Ford loses in Etobicoke North.

First of all, this model does not take into account at all Ford's personal popularity in north Etobicoke.  Second, these seat projection models are kinda useless right now (yes, more useless than Mainstreet's riding polls!)

I know people overuse the term star candidate, but yeah, you absolutely have to take into account the impact of star candidates on their ridings. Using a Hudak Tory's result in Etobicoke North to predict Doug Ford's result is just silly.

[ON Progressive]

I really, really doubt Ford loses in Etobicoke North.

First of all, this model does not take into account at all Ford's personal popularity in north Etobicoke.  Second, these seat projection models are kinda useless right now (yes, more useless than Mainstreet's riding polls!)

Yeah. I can't see Ford losing his own riding unless his party somehow goes down to 2014 levels. Even then, Ford would likely overperform the party as a whole because he is party leader in an area that adores the Fords.

[King of Kensington]

Tooclosetocall's Liberal holdouts:

Don Valley East
Ottawa-Vanier
St. Paul's
Vaughan-Woodbridge (lol)

[DC Al Fine]

Vaughan-Woodbridge (lol)

FFS

[PeteB]

I did explicitly point out if you know what you're looking for - i.e. it's not a question of counting signs and saying that the party with the most in a given district will win (lol no), but looking for certain patterns. Essentially they're a good way to gauge electoral enthusiasm.

As for constituency polling... ahem... if we're being honest, certain companies this time are using them as a money making scam. Beware.

I agree with this. Since I started this conversation with my comment about lawn signs in Parkdale High Park, let me just make clear that I never implied that PC will pick that riding up. I was just contrasting the flood of PC signs in this election to the usual one or two that they have had in the past.

And I DO think that it is a trend that shows something. PC may still lose or even finish in their (usual) third place, but they will undoubtedly do much better than usual, even in this traditionally Liberal/NDP riding.

Trends and patterns - ignore them at your peril.

[DL]

The reason riding polls can be so unreliable is that it’s is impossible to get riding specific cell phone sample especially in urban ridings and that mean that no matter how much weighting you try to do you are still only surveying people with listed landline numbers are are not representative of the population

[Hatman 🍁]

The reason riding polls can be so unreliable is that it’s is impossible to get riding specific cell phone sample especially in urban ridings and that mean that no matter how much weighting you try to do you are still only surveying people with listed landline numbers are are not representative of the population

That is a huge problem, as is the response rates for certain demographic groups (e.g. visible minorities, indigenous people, etc). Also, ridings with rather new housing developments will have fewer listed numbers as sampling companies have yet to update their lists.

All this to say is that when analyzing riding polls, you need to also "know what to look for" and make corresponding adjustments, or else just throw in the junk pile.

[lilTommy]

I did explicitly point out if you know what you're looking for - i.e. it's not a question of counting signs and saying that the party with the most in a given district will win (lol no), but looking for certain patterns. Essentially they're a good way to gauge electoral enthusiasm.

As for constituency polling... ahem... if we're being honest, certain companies this time are using them as a money making scam. Beware.

I agree with this. Since I started this conversation with my comment about lawn signs in Parkdale High Park, let me just make clear that I never implied that PC will pick that riding up. I was just contrasting the flood of PC signs in this election to the usual one or two that they have had in the past.

And I DO think that it is a trend that shows something. PC may still lose or even finish in their (usual) third place, but they will undoubtedly do much better than usual, even in this traditionally Liberal/NDP riding.

Trends and patterns - ignore them at your peril.

I absolutely agree that wealthier areas, that have tended to vote Liberal will see swings to the PCs; and I think this is where you are seeing the OLP-PC swings in the city, is among voters who would rather see the PCs then the NDP, and can't support the OLP any longer. High Park area, Rosedale will see PC gains, Briddle Path-York Mills-SunnyBrook, Forrest Hill and Lawrence Park.

[King of Kensington]

I'm not so sure about that...Hudak's orthodox conservative platform was more appealing to the very wealthy than Ford's populist campaign in many respects.

[Hatman 🍁]

Poll out today: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/without-significant-changes-doug-ford-on-track-for-majority-government/

39-35-19

[ON Progressive]

[Krago]

The NDP is eight points behind in Brampton and eleven points ahead in Halton/Mississauga?

Fascinating.

[mileslunn]

The NDP is eight points behind in Brampton and eleven points ahead in Halton/Mississauga?

Fascinating.

The topline numbers are credible, the regionals I would ignore as too small a sample. 

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP is eight points behind in Brampton and eleven points ahead in Halton/Mississauga?

Fascinating.

Uhhh... ignore the regional numbers. I don't know why we included them this time. They're designed for a much larger sample size.

[DC Al Fine]

Poll out today: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/without-significant-changes-doug-ford-on-track-for-majority-government/

39-35-19

Interesting that the Liberals are doing worse with visible minorities than non-minorities.

[DL]

Poll out today: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/without-significant-changes-doug-ford-on-track-for-majority-government/

39-35-19

Pardon m’y schadenfreude that the OLP is stuck at 19%. Mainstreet seems to be the only one showing any recovery at all for them. I’m still optimistic and that a lot of soft Liberals and Greens will go NDP in the end

[King of Kensington]

The Visible Minority numbers are interesting, although probably more suggestive given the sample (I'M JUST PUTTING THIS DISCLAIMER HERE TO PRE-EMPT THE PREDICATABLE "CRITCISM" ABOUT READING TOO MUCH INTO SUBSAMPLES).  

Ford is indeed competitive with them for a Conservative, but...the "narrative" that he is far, far more popular among VMs than everyone else doesn't hold true and that the NDP is in fact polling higher (though I suspect there's wide variation, too small to slice, within the various VM groups).  Wonder what this could mean for results in Scarborough and Brampton.

[Krago]

Poll out today: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/without-significant-changes-doug-ford-on-track-for-majority-government/

39-35-19

Pardon m’y schadenfreude that the OLP is stuck at 19%. Mainstreet seems to be the only one showing any recovery at all for them. I’m still optimistic and that a lot of soft Liberals and Greens will go NDP in the end

Honestly, the NDP-niks are freaking out over the drop in support, but having the headline read 'Doug Ford on track for majority government' going into the final weekend will feed directly into Horwath's strategic voting message.  But if the Tories keep hanging close to 40% in the polls, strategic voting won't change the result.

[Oryxslayer]

Poll out today: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/without-significant-changes-doug-ford-on-track-for-majority-government/

39-35-19

Pardon m’y schadenfreude that the OLP is stuck at 19%. Mainstreet seems to be the only one showing any recovery at all for them. I’m still optimistic and that a lot of soft Liberals and Greens will go NDP in the end

Honestly, the NDP-niks are freaking out over the drop in support, but having the headline read 'Doug Ford on track for majority government' going into the final weekend will feed directly into Horwath's strategic voting message.  But if the Tories keep hanging close to 40% in the polls, strategic voting won't change the result.

Honestly, if you are still voting LIB at this point, there is little chance you will move to the NDP at the last moment. You more likely either want to save the parties furniture for the next election, or are a dead set partisan.

[Hatman 🍁]

Maggi has already put his riding polls out for the day, and none of them are the 'shockers' that he had promised.

[Hatman 🍁]

He also lied about showing the same trend lines...

He may not be a scammer like Al seems to think he is, but he sure is being disingenuous.

[King of Kensington]

Not shockers at all - except for the margins of victory they're showing.

[Krago]

Poll out today: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/without-significant-changes-doug-ford-on-track-for-majority-government/

39-35-19

Pardon m’y schadenfreude that the OLP is stuck at 19%. Mainstreet seems to be the only one showing any recovery at all for them. I’m still optimistic and that a lot of soft Liberals and Greens will go NDP in the end

Honestly, the NDP-niks are freaking out over the drop in support, but having the headline read 'Doug Ford on track for majority government' going into the final weekend will feed directly into Horwath's strategic voting message.  But if the Tories keep hanging close to 40% in the polls, strategic voting won't change the result.

Honestly, if you are still voting LIB at this point, there is little chance you will move to the NDP at the last moment. You more likely either want to save the parties furniture for the next election, or are a dead set partisan.

From the most recent Mainstreet poll, one-sixth of remaining Liberals supporters are 'very likely' to change their vote to their second choice, which is overwhelmingly NDP.

The previous record for Liberal futility was set in 1923 under the leadership of Wellington Hay - 21.3%.  Here's my favourite Wikipedia quote about the 1923 election:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[King of Kensington]

Hey Hatman, would you be able to combine the figures for City of Toronto and for the 905/GTA?

[Hatman 🍁]

Poll out today: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/without-significant-changes-doug-ford-on-track-for-majority-government/

39-35-19

Pardon m’y schadenfreude that the OLP is stuck at 19%. Mainstreet seems to be the only one showing any recovery at all for them. I’m still optimistic and that a lot of soft Liberals and Greens will go NDP in the end

Honestly, the NDP-niks are freaking out over the drop in support, but having the headline read 'Doug Ford on track for majority government' going into the final weekend will feed directly into Horwath's strategic voting message.  But if the Tories keep hanging close to 40% in the polls, strategic voting won't change the result.

Honestly, if you are still voting LIB at this point, there is little chance you will move to the NDP at the last moment. You more likely either want to save the parties furniture for the next election, or are a dead set partisan.

From the most recent Mainstreet poll, one-sixth of remaining Liberals supporters are 'very likely' to change their vote to their second choice, which is overwhelmingly NDP.

The previous record for Liberal futility was set in 1923 under the leadership of Wellington Hay - 21.3%.  Here's my favourite Wikipedia quote about the 1923 election:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The previous low for seats for the Liberals was 1951 where they won 8 seats with a respectable 32% of the vote. Man, that must've been a pretty gerrymandered map. The CCF won just 2 seats with 19% of the vote.