2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Good sign for the fajitas.

[Brittain33]

Good sign for the fajitas.

I think TX Republicans realizing that a large number of never-voting Hispanics showing up only to vote for Trump in 2020 may not be a strong basis for future wins.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Good sign for the fajitas.

I think TX Republicans realizing that a large number of never-voting Hispanics showing up only to vote for Trump in 2020 may not be a strong basis for future wins.

It's basically a gamble. TX GOPers would rather play it safe, and that's, bluntly, quite rational.

[ProgressiveModerate]

That is horrendous for how little it actually accomplishes

Glad to see they seem to be following VRA and not going too crazy though

[Oryxslayer]

The most WTF district is 17, which shows just how much the GOP now fear White Houston.


Also, is 31 majority Hispanic by population? Looks like it goes out of its way to grab all the oil and ranching counties in west Texas and the panhandle with significant, but nonvoting or GOP, Hispanic populations.

[S019]

So it seems one Dem was drawn out?

[Oryxslayer]

So it seems one Dem was drawn out?

Yeah the Tarrant one, but that seat was marginal anyway and surrounded by very red seats. notably the GOP tried something similar to this in 2010 on the congressional map, but were told that Tarrant needs to have some minority representation. Mind end up having to return that seat to the Dems as a new pack.

[S019]

So it seems one Dem was drawn out?

Yeah the Tarrant one, but that seat was marginal anyway and surrounded by very red seats. notably the GOP tried something similar to this in 2010 on the congressional map, but were told that Tarrant needs to have some minority representation. Mind end up having to return that seat to the Dems as a new pack.

do we have partisanship numbers for these maps?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Just on pure aesthetics, I LOVE the shape of district #31. Just beautiful stuff. Ultimate barbell district. And it is not even directly partisan gerrymandering for that district. It is just completely ridiculous and absurd for non-partisan reasons. 

[Nyvin]

DRA Senate proposal -
https://davesredistricting.org/join/8aa952bc-cff7-490c-83fc-03c05dd8b0ee

[Roll Roons]

Is it normal for the population deviations to be so large?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is it normal for the population deviations to be so large?

For a state legislative map? It's pretty normal. A bit less than standard you see in some states.

[Oryxslayer]

Is it normal for the population deviations to be so large?

Most legislatures have a +5% or 10% deviation allowed overall when measured between the most underpopulated and most overpopulated seats. This is meant to allow for neat lines, but a desperate partisan will overpack the oppositions seats and depopulate their seats. However its a obvious line of litigation, especially when it comes to minority seats, so this blatant deviation tactic is only used when necessary - such as when the NY GOP drew their 2010 senate plan to try and elect a Republican legislature in a Safe Blue state.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

When do we get lower house?

[Nyvin]

Here's a clue of how precise this map was made -

Districts 2, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 17, 18, 24, and 25 are ALL within 39.9% to 43.3% Biden 2020.   A top to bottom margin of only 3.4%.   

Twelve districts total, all of them in and around the four major metros.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's a clue of how precise this map was made -

Districts 2, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 17, 18, 24, and 25 are ALL within 39.9% to 43.3% Biden 2020.   A top to bottom margin of only 3.4%.   

Twelve districts total, all of them in and around the four major metros.

This map should be able to hold a majority through 2030, tbh.

[Nyvin]

Here's a clue of how precise this map was made -

Districts 2, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 17, 18, 24, and 25 are ALL within 39.9% to 43.3% Biden 2020.   A top to bottom margin of only 3.4%.  

Twelve districts total, all of them in and around the four major metros.

This map should be able to hold a majority through 2030, tbh.

Assuming all the RGV seats hold (who knows),  the Dems only need 4 seats to flip.  

I'd say the most likely are 7, 8, 12, and 25.   Also the Ft Worth districts, 9 and 10, might be a dummymander later on too.

I don't think all these 40-55 districts are as strong as they think they are.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's a clue of how precise this map was made -

Districts 2, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 17, 18, 24, and 25 are ALL within 39.9% to 43.3% Biden 2020.   A top to bottom margin of only 3.4%.  

Twelve districts total, all of them in and around the four major metros.

This map should be able to hold a majority through 2030, tbh.

Assuming all the RGV seats hold (who knows),  the Dems only need 4 seats to flip.  

I'd say the most likely are 7, 8, 12, and 25.   Also the Ft Worth districts, 9 and 10, might be a dummymander later on too.

The vast bulk of seats that Ds need to flip a majority on that map mix suburban and exurban and even rural. There are basically no "pure suburban" R seats anymore except 7 and 11. This means Ds need bigger suburban swings to reach the same number of seats.
Not that Rs can't lose their majorities under this map - they absolutely can - but Ds are efficiently packed to the point that they'd need a fairly substantial statewide majority under these lines.  So I think Rs are likelier, not that much likelier but still likelier, to hold the majority come 2030. A lot depends on the exact margins though.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

To really highlight the thrust of this map - I only need to look at the district in which I was born, SD-08.

Rains and Hunt and most of Collin. This is probably the easiest or among the easiest flips for Ds. The two non-Collin counties are small and combined, they are around 12% of the population or so (while having a roughly 25k vote margin for Trump). I admit that I don't see this standing for the entire decade because of that, and it probably lasts four years or something. At the same time, what the GOP did here is simple yet also the best option they have - mix suburban (Collin County) and exurban (Hunt County) and rural (Rains County) and all that stuff. Removing all of Richardson is smart because in a close election, the Biden-voting Collin portion would probably be very important for Democrats. Frisco meanwhile was removed presumably because of its very fast Dem trend and because it could be placed in a safe R seat that was more...rural.

Unless Democrats get mathematically significant swings in numerical vote terms in the more rural parts of the seat, the load for flipping this seat lies more-or-less wholely on Collin County, and particularly on Plano and Allen and McKinney, and they would need pretty major swings. Biden lost this seat by 54,729 votes. Since the swings are likely going to be less in the more R parts of it (GOP voters are the majority among those moving to those areas, iirc), and in fact we might be looking at net GOP swings in the more outlying parts of it, Dems have to marshall a net margin of at least 60,000 votes (roughly) in the more dense parts of it for it to flip. Far from impossible but also far from inevitable. And this is in an optimistic scenario.

Assuming that it takes 10 years for demographic change to appear in voting patterns, I would say that this is roughly 50/50 in 2026 for purpose of a state senate election, with the best of knowledge we have now. I don't know how they decide what seats are up in what years, but if this seat is only up in 2022 and 2026, then the GOP winning this seat in 2026 (perfectly possible) would result in them holding it for 8 years out of 10. And them doing so would be because they drew the lines like this.

I don't think there is a very viable path to a Dem majority without SD-08, and if not even SD-08 is a sure thing, that doesn't say a lot of good about Dem chances at a majority.

[Nyvin]

The thing is though the vast majority of those exurban/rural areas in Texas are already voting 80% or even 90% Republican and a lot of them aren't growing much at all (some of them are in decline).  

Even from 2016 to 2020 there wasn't really any real R trend in Texas in the rural areas around the metros.    There's just not a whole lot more for Republicans to get out of those areas.  I know "maxed out" is a phrase used a lot here, but in this case it really does have a lot of merit.

Meanwhile everything that we have to look at right now shows the Texas metros continuing to move left as fast as Atlanta (except maybe Houston).   Republicans have an extremely weak foundation to work with here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The thing is though the vast majority of those exurban/rural areas in Texas are already voting 80% or even 90% Republican and a lot of them aren't growing much at all (some of them are in decline).  

Even from 2016 to 2020 there wasn't really any real R trend in Texas in the rural areas around the metros.    There's just not a whole lot more for Republicans to get out of those areas.  I know "maxed out" is a phrase used a lot here, but in this case it really does have a lot of merit.

Meanwhile everything that we have to look at right now shows the Texas metros continuing to move left as fast as Atlanta (except maybe Houston).   Republicans have an extremely weak foundation to work with here.

I don't think it's at all a given that we see 2016>2020 trends continue at comparable pace indefinitely over the course of the decade. There's a lot we just don't know. I am skeptical of the idea we can just project 2016>2020 trends indefinitely and make judgement of maps on basis of that.

It's also the case that numerical votes matter as much as vote %. And this means exurban areas still help Republicans vis a vis Democrats even if they swing towards Democrats - the raw margins GOPers are getting are increasing in some areas.

Johnson County
Year Republican Democratic Third parties
2020 75.9% 54,628 22.9% 16,464 1.3% 928
2016 77.0% 44,382 19.1% 10,988 3.9% 2,236
2012 77.1% 37,661 21.5% 10,496 1.4% 681
Since 2012 the county has actually trended Democratic but Rs have netted 10k net votes.

Ellis County
Year Republican Democratic Third parties
2020 66.3% 56,717 32.2% 27,565 1.4% 1,211
2016 70.1% 44,941 25.4% 16,253 4.6% 2,916
2012 72.9% 39,574 25.6% 13,881 1.5% 799
Despite a very real Dem trend (reaching into high single digits) Rs still net votes from here despite the growth.

Hunt County
Year Republican Democratic Third parties
2020 75.6% 29,163 23.1% 8,906 1.4% 528
2016 75.8% 23,910 20.3% 6,396 4.0% 1,248
2012 74.9% 21,011 23.8% 6,671 1.3% 367
Negligible trend, Rs still net 6k votes.

The moral of the story is that this is a battle of numerical vote tallies as much as it is about margins. Good news for Dems is that SD-08's non-Collin portions aren't really solidly determinative overall - five in six residents live in Collin. That proportion probably will decline as the decade passes, but the fate of SD-08 (a prerequisite for a D senate majority under the GOP map) will be decided not there but in McKinney, Allen, Plano, et cetera. There is also a movement of Rs out of northern Dallas and into Collin from the looks of it (as parts of metro DFW have steadily densified), so how many move north will also be relevant.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1439369109532286977

So Cook is now saying it might be a 25-13 congressional map in Texas.  Which I believe means the GOP only nets the two new seats... 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

snip

At the very least there are few universes in which Rs do fajitas for one set of maps and not another. And the fajitas existing ensures a certain seat floor for Democrats.

[Non Swing Voter]

snip

At the very least there are few universes in which Rs do fajitas for one set of maps and not another. And the fajitas existing ensures a certain seat floor for Democrats.

I have literally no idea what you're talking about.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

snip

At the very least there are few universes in which Rs do fajitas for one set of maps and not another. And the fajitas existing ensures a certain seat floor for Democrats.

I have literally no idea what you're talking about.

The congressional map? What else could I be talking about?