2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[Roll Roons]

Tried a Central TX GOP Gerry that I *think* can hold through the 2020s.



Purple: Central Austin--O'Rourke+64 (Davis)
Teal: Central and Western San Antonio--O'Rourke+45 (Latino VRA) (Castro)
Blue: East Austin, East San Antonio, San Marcos--O'Rourke+25 (Latino VRA) (Doggett)
Green: Southwest Austin, San Angelo--Cruz+18 (McCaul)
Red: North San Antonio, Hill Country--Cruz+8 (Hurd/Vacant)
Yellow: West Austin, Round Rock, Gatesville--Cruz+17 (Carter)
Brown: Georgetown, College Station--Cruz+21 (Flores)
Violet: Waco, Temple, Killeen--Cruz+23 (Vacant)
Lime: Victoria, East Austin, Pflugerville--Cruz+22 (Cloud)

Worst case scenario here for the GOP is a 4-5 delegation later on in the decade which isn't bad for an area that'll be 60-40 Dem by 2030. I'm guessing Wendy Davis beats Chip Roy this time around allowing McCaul to slip into the green district unopposed. It is worth noting that this map will make it

I wouldn't be surprised to see Hurd try and come back if Trump loses, especially if there's a safer district that he can run in.

[Roll Roons]

So with Texas gaining 2 seats, how are they gonna do this? There absolutely needs to be an Austin vote sink, but they can make at least one RGV seat that Trump carried. And the trends in DFW are worse for the GOP than they are in Houston, so Allred's district probably gets turned into a sink.

[Roll Roons]

Any chance the republicans don't draw an Austin Sink, maybe hoping for a post-trump suburban trend reversion ?

If they want to dummymander, then yes.

The current lines in metro Austin would cost the GOP literally five seats in 2024 if left unchanged.

Suburban reps don't tend to like taking in rural/exurban territory.

Most of the Austin crack seats already include blood-red rural/exurban areas. But Austin is getting close to San Francisco-level liberal. If the current map was kept, TX-10, TX-21 and TX-31 would all be in serious trouble, with TX-17 and TX-25 also approaching the danger zone.

[Roll Roons]

Anybody know which Dem would be favoured for a Primary in a New Austin sink district ?

It would be an insane 20 candidate free for all. I wouldn't be surprised if the new person ends up joining the Squad. 

[Roll Roons]

If the Texas GOP doesn't draw a new Austin sink for whatever reason, would it be an instant dummymander?

[Roll Roons]

Will the TXGOP try to protect their incumbents; or is incumbent protection not a thing in Texas, where will they draw an extremely ugly map that unnecessarily draws out GOP incumbents?

I don’t think anyone here has insight into what Texas will do, but it would be unusual for them not to try to protect all of their incumbents. This is literally the first redistricting cycle where Texas R growth has stalled relative to the state as a whole so it’s a new problem for them.

You don’t think they would do anything like double bunking Crenshaw into a Democratic district with Fletcher to make TX-02 more rural? I can imagine Crenshaw not being happy if that is done.

Crenshaw has $4m in his account so he will be fine with whatever happens. But I do expect they would try to keep a TX-2 that includes much of his turf but is more Republican for him to run in.

My guess is he takes a bit of Montgomery County. He also ran ahead of Trump by 12 points, so he has somewhat of a cushion.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1438257150439174153
I imagine this is a strong sign that Texas will deliver for Republicans in congressional redistricting

Let's be honest, how much further can they go? I see net R+1 as the best case scenario for the GOP as they move to take two RGV seats and cede a Dem seat in Austin, but they're pretty close to maxed out and this to me, just indicates they're stupid.

Are you saying that if they do the 20-11 map then they will dummymander the suburbs?

Yes, there are three Dem districts in Dallas right now, there's an R held Biden seat and an R held seat that went from Trump by 2 and a Trump+12 R held seat in the exurbs, cutting that down to just 2 seats is literally asking for trouble. Not to mention, they have a very, very vulnerable seat in Houston.

Is that last seat the Crenshaw one?

Probably not, since he's talking about the State Senate map.

Since you're bringing up Crenshaw's seat, it was only Trump +1, though Crenshaw ran ahead of Trump by double digits.

[Roll Roons]

Is it normal for the population deviations to be so large?

[Roll Roons]

It appears that it is more likely that Fletcher (and maybe even Allred?) are going to get screwed in redistricting as they really want Wesley Hunt to run for Congress. I wouldn't be surprised to see if the GOP proposes a 27 R - 11 D map in the coming weeks.

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/09/23/texas-congress-redistricting-fletcher/

If the Texas GOP really wants to draw one of them out, Fletcher's probably the better option. The trends in the Houston area aren't nearly as ugly as they are in Dallas.

[Roll Roons]

Is there a link we can use to zoom in?

[Roll Roons]

My guess is Doggett stays in TX-35 and TX-37 becomes a very bloody free-for-all. The top finisher probably gets less than 25% of the vote in the first round. I bet there'll be at least one serious JD/DSA-aligned contender.

[Roll Roons]

I'm honestly really surprised that Kay Granger was willing to take a seat that could flip within 10 years.

Between her age and committee chair term limits, there's a very good chance Granger retires in 2024.

[Roll Roons]

I'm reading online that Democrats could win around 88 seats on this map (out of 150) within the next few cycles.

Trump won 86 seats on this map so I doubt they can get to 88

A lot of those 86 have the R vote spread VERY thin though.

Yeah, I would think at least 10 probably voted to the left of the state. The state house is where the geographical disadvantage for the TXGOP is most noticeable.

[Roll Roons]

Is the new TX-37th the most democratic district in the country?

It's probably in the top five, but I think the most Democratic would either be PA-03 (West Philly/Center City) or CA-13 (Oakland and Berkeley).

[Roll Roons]

Interesting fact:

Under the new state House maps passed by the GOP, Trump only won the majority of seats 79-71. And at that, most Biden seats should be relatively safe and there's very few actual marginal Dem seats (most are in the RGV so if that slips for the Dems it'll cost them). After that, the remainder should stick with them for the decade barring a major suburban reversion of the GOP becoming competitive in downtowns of big cities.

Dems on the other hand have tons of potential marginal pickup opportunities later in the decade, especially in these growing and diversifying suburbs.

I would almost be surprised at this point if Dems don't flip the TX State House at some point this decade

Had Trump won reelection, I think Democrats probably would have won the State House and at least one statewide race in 2022.

[Roll Roons]

Interesting fact:

Under the new state House maps passed by the GOP, Trump only won the majority of seats 79-71. And at that, most Biden seats should be relatively safe and there's very few actual marginal Dem seats (most are in the RGV so if that slips for the Dems it'll cost them). After that, the remainder should stick with them for the decade barring a major suburban reversion of the GOP becoming competitive in downtowns of big cities.

Dems on the other hand have tons of potential marginal pickup opportunities later in the decade, especially in these growing and diversifying suburbs.

I would almost be surprised at this point if Dems don't flip the TX State House at some point this decade

Had Trump won reelection, I think Democrats probably would have won the State House and at least one statewide race in 2022.

Oh what could have been….

Sure. But I shudder to think about how unhinged Trump would have been in a second term.

[Roll Roons]

Kinda a random thought, but the more I think about it, the more I think TX-03 could be a potential problem down the road for the GOP than TX-24.

Using Atlanta as kind of an example, TX-03 seems more like a Gwinnett County type-place- rapidly growing, diversifying, and gentrifying so will likely trend hard left by default over the course of the decade.

Meanwhile, TX-24 very much feels like northern Cobb county, an already largely established wealth white suburban community of the metro. If the district flips, while some of it could be attributed to shifting demographics and generation turnover, it’ll ultimately be from peeling off more college educated whites.

We saw in the GA runoffs for instance GA-7 vote decently to the left of GA-6 after GA-6 voted to the left of GA-7 in the 2020 Pres election, where the circumstances caused Biden to do better with college educated voters than a Dem would normally do. GA-7 also grew significantly more than GA-6 this decade population wise. GA-7 and TX-3 seem like the kind of places that are the future of the Democratic Party more than GA-6 or TX-24.

Also iirc TX-3 and GA-7 were both in the top 5 of most left shifting districts from 2016-2020 Pres

Are there any other districts similar to this? Maybe Fort Bend (now just 30% NHW) for a comparison to Gwinett/GA-07?

Def Fort Bend. Seminole may kinda qualify in a way. Also Northern Phoenix and some parts of OC (CA-45ish). Nova. Columbus perhaps?

I would say Raleigh but I feel like that’s gonna go more the way of Austin or Madison; very white but highly educated and high income.

Minneapolis prolly falls in a sort if in between category.

NJ-7.

NJ-07 is pretty different from GA-07. It's not experiencing the same explosive growth and large-scale demographic turnover as the latter. Bear in mind that unlike Gwinnett County, downballot Republicans still tend to do very well there, which indicates to me that it's more due to college-educated whites who changed their voting habits as a reaction to Trump.

[Roll Roons]

3 D pack Houston that isn't too bad. Still don't understand why the GOP seemed so much more aggressive in Dallas than Houston on all levels of redistricting (state legistlative and congressional), especially when Dallas has had slightly more consistent leftward shifts

That's exactly why. Because the trends have been so much worse in DFW than they have in Houston, the TXGOP felt like they had to be much more aggressive and draw uglier lines.