2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Will the new map project as many incumbent Republicans as possible, or will it be even uglier and unnecessarily draw out incumbents?

My guess is that they try to as much as in reason but ultimately partisan gerrymandering goals will prevail and may cause double or even triple bunking, especially in places where the GOP will have to "pizza" like crazy.

Does this look like a good mock-up? My best effort for a moment at a realistic 2022 map

I honestly get serious dummymander vibes from this map, there are multiple Trump+14 2020 seats in the Dallas area and a Trump+6 one in the Houston area, also McCaul and Roy seem to have been drawn into safe Democratic seats. Instead, I think having a single Austin pack as a new seat is the smarter play, and also preserving the current I-35 seat.

The DFW metro seats are mostly a mixture of suburban and rural. Population growth could flip them but it's much different than if it was an all-suburban CD. In practice, you would need the suburban portions of those CDs to swing 20, perhaps even 30 points towards Democrats, unless there is a swing in rural areas as well that can make up the difference.
Of course some of them might fall. But even in an R worst case scenario, the bulk of the seats should hold. The only really vulnerable district is the Denton County district, which could probably flip in 2026 or 2028. But by then, the map has performed well enough that it's basically guaranteed not to be dummymander overall.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Will the new map project as many incumbent Republicans as possible, or will it be even uglier and unnecessarily draw out incumbents?

My guess is that they try to as much as in reason but ultimately partisan gerrymandering goals will prevail and may cause double or even triple bunking, especially in places where the GOP will have to "pizza" like crazy.

Does this look like a good mock-up? My best effort for a moment at a realistic 2022 map

I'm suprised how clean you were able to make it. I'm still hesistant to believe the GOP will make 3 fajitas that start out as Dem leading, especially if it does turn out 2020 was a bit of an exception. To be fair, it's hard to even draw 1 R leaning hispanic VRA seat in RGV without getting frisky. The Metroplex config is interesting but works quite well, and North Dallas doesn't look that brutal. That 26 and 22 are obv not safe and I think the GOP will probably find a way to shroe them up a bit but this looks pretty realistic overall.

22 is hard to do all that much more about. In fact I already shored it up. TX-22 as is currently constituted voted for Trump by 1 point, under this map, it does so by 6.
If Rs could hold it in 2020 in an open seat by a larger than expected margin then they should be able to be quite competitive here for at least three cycles. If Ds win the 2024 election then it becomes very very hard to see them making the massive gains needed to put it away.
26 is different and yes I could see it being done quite a bit differently. But Trump+9 isn't anything to sneeze at. It should still elect Rs for the majority of the 2020s in most reasonable scenarios.

[Coastal Elitist]

Will the new map project as many incumbent Republicans as possible, or will it be even uglier and unnecessarily draw out incumbents?

My guess is that they try to as much as in reason but ultimately partisan gerrymandering goals will prevail and may cause double or even triple bunking, especially in places where the GOP will have to "pizza" like crazy.

Does this look like a good mock-up? My best effort for a moment at a realistic 2022 map

Why did you keep Kevin Brady's massive vote sink he's retiring? Also it's easy to draw out Fletcher if you crack Montgomery three ways.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Will the new map project as many incumbent Republicans as possible, or will it be even uglier and unnecessarily draw out incumbents?

My guess is that they try to as much as in reason but ultimately partisan gerrymandering goals will prevail and may cause double or even triple bunking, especially in places where the GOP will have to "pizza" like crazy.

Does this look like a good mock-up? My best effort for a moment at a realistic 2022 map

Why did you keep Kevin Brady's massive vote sink he's retiring? Also it's easy to draw out Fletcher if you crack Montgomery three ways.

I early on decided I didn't want to draw out Fletcher. Three districts crossing the Harris-Montgomery line is just unnecessary and overly risky in the long term anyway.
Better to pack TX-07 then get the R-voting parts of West Houston in a R district. In the end TX-07 was packed so well I didn't even need to send any districts into Montgomery County.

[NotSoLucky]

I find it absurd that the republicans are set to gain 2 seats, despite the democratic cities and D leaning suburbs being where the population growth is happening. We could see a situation where the republicans try and pack all the democratic cities/suburbs into as few districts as possible :/

Will the new map project as many incumbent Republicans as possible, or will it be even uglier and unnecessarily draw out incumbents?

My guess is that they try to as much as in reason but ultimately partisan gerrymandering goals will prevail and may cause double or even triple bunking, especially in places where the GOP will have to "pizza" like crazy.

[url removed]Does this look like a good mock-up? My best effort for a moment at a realistic 2022 map

Why did you keep Kevin Brady's massive vote sink he's retiring? Also it's easy to draw out Fletcher if you crack Montgomery three ways.

I early on decided I didn't want to draw out Fletcher. Three districts crossing the Harris-Montgomery line is just unnecessary and overly risky in the long term anyway.
Better to pack TX-07 then get the R-voting parts of West Houston in a R district. In the end TX-07 was packed so well I didn't even need to send any districts into Montgomery County.

Do you think they'll pack all of Houston into a single district? Or would that risk state courts getting involved if it's too extreme of a gerrymander?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I find it absurd that the republicans are set to gain 2 seats, despite the democratic cities and D leaning suburbs being where the population growth is happening. We could see a situation where the republicans try and pack all the democratic cities/suburbs into as few districts as possible :/

Will the new map project as many incumbent Republicans as possible, or will it be even uglier and unnecessarily draw out incumbents?

My guess is that they try to as much as in reason but ultimately partisan gerrymandering goals will prevail and may cause double or even triple bunking, especially in places where the GOP will have to "pizza" like crazy.

[url removed]Does this look like a good mock-up? My best effort for a moment at a realistic 2022 map

Why did you keep Kevin Brady's massive vote sink he's retiring? Also it's easy to draw out Fletcher if you crack Montgomery three ways.

I early on decided I didn't want to draw out Fletcher. Three districts crossing the Harris-Montgomery line is just unnecessary and overly risky in the long term anyway.
Better to pack TX-07 then get the R-voting parts of West Houston in a R district. In the end TX-07 was packed so well I didn't even need to send any districts into Montgomery County.

Do you think they'll pack all of Houston into a single district? Or would that risk state courts getting involved if it's too extreme of a gerrymander?

What do you mean by "pack all of Houston into a single district"? Houston is just over the size of three CDs by itself anyway. (VRA means that it's inevitable for some of those to spill into neighboring areas)
Also, welcome to the forum! Apologies if I misread your question!

[NotSoLucky]

I find it absurd that the republicans are set to gain 2 seats, despite the democratic cities and D leaning suburbs being where the population growth is happening. We could see a situation where the republicans try and pack all the democratic cities/suburbs into as few districts as possible :/

Will the new map project as many incumbent Republicans as possible, or will it be even uglier and unnecessarily draw out incumbents?

My guess is that they try to as much as in reason but ultimately partisan gerrymandering goals will prevail and may cause double or even triple bunking, especially in places where the GOP will have to "pizza" like crazy.

[url removed]Does this look like a good mock-up? My best effort for a moment at a realistic 2022 map

Why did you keep Kevin Brady's massive vote sink he's retiring? Also it's easy to draw out Fletcher if you crack Montgomery three ways.

I early on decided I didn't want to draw out Fletcher. Three districts crossing the Harris-Montgomery line is just unnecessary and overly risky in the long term anyway.
Better to pack TX-07 then get the R-voting parts of West Houston in a R district. In the end TX-07 was packed so well I didn't even need to send any districts into Montgomery County.

Do you think they'll pack all of Houston into a single district? Or would that risk state courts getting involved if it's too extreme of a gerrymander?

What do you mean by "pack all of Houston into a single district"? Houston is just over the size of three CDs by itself anyway. (VRA means that it's inevitable for some of those to spill into neighboring areas)
Also, welcome to the forum! Apologies if I misread your question!

I meant combining the 3 districts into one solitary district. I don't know if that's too extreme though xP

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I find it absurd that the republicans are set to gain 2 seats, despite the democratic cities and D leaning suburbs being where the population growth is happening. We could see a situation where the republicans try and pack all the democratic cities/suburbs into as few districts as possible :/

Will the new map project as many incumbent Republicans as possible, or will it be even uglier and unnecessarily draw out incumbents?

My guess is that they try to as much as in reason but ultimately partisan gerrymandering goals will prevail and may cause double or even triple bunking, especially in places where the GOP will have to "pizza" like crazy.

[url removed]Does this look like a good mock-up? My best effort for a moment at a realistic 2022 map

Why did you keep Kevin Brady's massive vote sink he's retiring? Also it's easy to draw out Fletcher if you crack Montgomery three ways.

I early on decided I didn't want to draw out Fletcher. Three districts crossing the Harris-Montgomery line is just unnecessary and overly risky in the long term anyway.
Better to pack TX-07 then get the R-voting parts of West Houston in a R district. In the end TX-07 was packed so well I didn't even need to send any districts into Montgomery County.

Do you think they'll pack all of Houston into a single district? Or would that risk state courts getting involved if it's too extreme of a gerrymander?

What do you mean by "pack all of Houston into a single district"? Houston is just over the size of three CDs by itself anyway. (VRA means that it's inevitable for some of those to spill into neighboring areas)
Also, welcome to the forum! Apologies if I misread your question!

I meant combining the 3 districts into one solitary district. I don't know if that's too extreme though xP

Non-single member districts have been illegal since 1968 for the purpose of US House elections.

[Stuart98]

And the Supreme Court has held since Wesberry v. Sanders that congressional districts have to be of as close to equal population as possible. Any map which tries to overpopulate Democratic districts is being instantly struck down. Texas Republicans are evil, but they aren't stupid.

[Non Swing Voter]

And the Supreme Court has held since Wesberry v. Sanders that congressional districts have to be of as close to equal population as possible. Any map which tries to overpopulate Democratic districts is being instantly struck down. Texas Republicans are evil, but they aren't stupid.

Do we actually think SCOTUS has any integrity at this point?

[NotSoLucky]

And the Supreme Court has held since Wesberry v. Sanders that congressional districts have to be of as close to equal population as possible. Any map which tries to overpopulate Democratic districts is being instantly struck down. Texas Republicans are evil, but they aren't stupid.

Do we actually think SCOTUS has any integrity at this point?

Arguably the entire SCOTUS lost integrity after Bush V Gore.

[Stuart98]

And the Supreme Court has held since Wesberry v. Sanders that congressional districts have to be of as close to equal population as possible. Any map which tries to overpopulate Democratic districts is being instantly struck down. Texas Republicans are evil, but they aren't stupid.

Do we actually think SCOTUS has any integrity at this point?

They are not so brazen as to throw out one person one vote because they feel like it. It's a partisan court to be sure, but they're not that far gone yet.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1438257150439174153

I imagine this is a strong sign that Texas will deliver for Republicans in congressional redistricting

I assume the two seats they want to flip are the Ft Worth SD-10 and the RGV SD-19?

[S019]

https://twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1438257150439174153
I imagine this is a strong sign that Texas will deliver for Republicans in congressional redistricting

Let's be honest, how much further can they go? I see net R+1 as the best case scenario for the GOP as they move to take two RGV seats and cede a Dem seat in Austin, but they're pretty close to maxed out and this to me, just indicates they're stupid.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1438257150439174153
I imagine this is a strong sign that Texas will deliver for Republicans in congressional redistricting

Let's be honest, how much further can they go? I see net R+1 as the best case scenario for the GOP as they move to take two RGV seats and cede a Dem seat in Austin, but they're pretty close to maxed out and this to me, just indicates they're stupid.

Are you saying that if they do the 20-11 map then they will dummymander the suburbs?

[S019]

https://twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1438257150439174153
I imagine this is a strong sign that Texas will deliver for Republicans in congressional redistricting

Let's be honest, how much further can they go? I see net R+1 as the best case scenario for the GOP as they move to take two RGV seats and cede a Dem seat in Austin, but they're pretty close to maxed out and this to me, just indicates they're stupid.

Are you saying that if they do the 20-11 map then they will dummymander the suburbs?

Yes, there are three Dem districts in Dallas right now, there's an R held Biden seat and an R held seat that went from Trump by 2 and a Trump+12 R held seat in the exurbs, cutting that down to just 2 seats is literally asking for trouble. Not to mention, they have a very, very vulnerable seat in Houston.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1438257150439174153
I imagine this is a strong sign that Texas will deliver for Republicans in congressional redistricting

Let's be honest, how much further can they go? I see net R+1 as the best case scenario for the GOP as they move to take two RGV seats and cede a Dem seat in Austin, but they're pretty close to maxed out and this to me, just indicates they're stupid.

Are you saying that if they do the 20-11 map then they will dummymander the suburbs?

Yes, there are three Dem districts in Dallas right now, there's an R held Biden seat and an R held seat that went from Trump by 2 and a Trump+12 R held seat in the exurbs, cutting that down to just 2 seats is literally asking for trouble. Not to mention, they have a very, very vulnerable seat in Houston.

Is that last seat the Crenshaw one?

[S019]

https://twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1438257150439174153
I imagine this is a strong sign that Texas will deliver for Republicans in congressional redistricting

Let's be honest, how much further can they go? I see net R+1 as the best case scenario for the GOP as they move to take two RGV seats and cede a Dem seat in Austin, but they're pretty close to maxed out and this to me, just indicates they're stupid.

Are you saying that if they do the 20-11 map then they will dummymander the suburbs?

Yes, there are three Dem districts in Dallas right now, there's an R held Biden seat and an R held seat that went from Trump by 2 and a Trump+12 R held seat in the exurbs, cutting that down to just 2 seats is literally asking for trouble. Not to mention, they have a very, very vulnerable seat in Houston.

Is that last seat the Crenshaw one?

No this is state Senate, it's Joan Huffman's seat

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1438257150439174153
I imagine this is a strong sign that Texas will deliver for Republicans in congressional redistricting

Let's be honest, how much further can they go? I see net R+1 as the best case scenario for the GOP as they move to take two RGV seats and cede a Dem seat in Austin, but they're pretty close to maxed out and this to me, just indicates they're stupid.

Are you saying that if they do the 20-11 map then they will dummymander the suburbs?

Yes, there are three Dem districts in Dallas right now, there's an R held Biden seat and an R held seat that went from Trump by 2 and a Trump+12 R held seat in the exurbs, cutting that down to just 2 seats is literally asking for trouble. Not to mention, they have a very, very vulnerable seat in Houston.

Is that last seat the Crenshaw one?

Probably not, since he's talking about the State Senate map.

Since you're bringing up Crenshaw's seat, it was only Trump +1, though Crenshaw ran ahead of Trump by double digits.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1438257150439174153
I imagine this is a strong sign that Texas will deliver for Republicans in congressional redistricting

Let's be honest, how much further can they go? I see net R+1 as the best case scenario for the GOP as they move to take two RGV seats and cede a Dem seat in Austin, but they're pretty close to maxed out and this to me, just indicates they're stupid.

Are you saying that if they do the 20-11 map then they will dummymander the suburbs?

Yes, there are three Dem districts in Dallas right now, there's an R held Biden seat and an R held seat that went from Trump by 2 and a Trump+12 R held seat in the exurbs, cutting that down to just 2 seats is literally asking for trouble. Not to mention, they have a very, very vulnerable seat in Houston.

Is that last seat the Crenshaw one?

Probably not, since he's talking about the State Senate map.

Since you're bringing up Crenshaw's seat, it was only Trump +1, though Crenshaw ran ahead of Trump by double digits.

Ah no wonder.  I thought the numbers should have been more like 38 or something, that explains it.  I think they will definitely shore up that Crenshaw seat big time because he's like the GOP golden boy right now. 

[S019]

https://twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1438257150439174153
I imagine this is a strong sign that Texas will deliver for Republicans in congressional redistricting

Let's be honest, how much further can they go? I see net R+1 as the best case scenario for the GOP as they move to take two RGV seats and cede a Dem seat in Austin, but they're pretty close to maxed out and this to me, just indicates they're stupid.

Are you saying that if they do the 20-11 map then they will dummymander the suburbs?

Yes, there are three Dem districts in Dallas right now, there's an R held Biden seat and an R held seat that went from Trump by 2 and a Trump+12 R held seat in the exurbs, cutting that down to just 2 seats is literally asking for trouble. Not to mention, they have a very, very vulnerable seat in Houston.

Is that last seat the Crenshaw one?

Probably not, since he's talking about the State Senate map.

Since you're bringing up Crenshaw's seat, it was only Trump +1, though Crenshaw ran ahead of Trump by double digits.

Ah no wonder.  I thought the numbers should have been more like 38 or something, that explains it.  I think they will definitely shore up that Crenshaw seat big time because he's like the GOP golden boy right now. 

Kevin Brady retiring helps them with this because there is now no incumbent to demand keeping Montgomery whole. Parochial concerns from Montgomery legislators who may want to succeed Brady may prevent a total carve up, but I don't see why they can't at least split it in half and give half to Crenshaw.

[Coastal Elitist]

https://twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1438257150439174153
I imagine this is a strong sign that Texas will deliver for Republicans in congressional redistricting

Let's be honest, how much further can they go? I see net R+1 as the best case scenario for the GOP as they move to take two RGV seats and cede a Dem seat in Austin, but they're pretty close to maxed out and this to me, just indicates they're stupid.

Not really it's really easy to do a 21-10 map. I'll get you started with the D sinks
2 Dallas
3 Houston-Fort Bend
1 Austin-Williamson
1 Austin-Hays
1 San Antonio
1 El Paso
1 RGV

Then you get 19 R seats that are at least Trump+20 and the final 2 are Trump+16 in the RGV

[jimrtex]

And the Supreme Court has held since Wesberry v. Sanders that congressional districts have to be of as close to equal population as possible. Any map which tries to overpopulate Democratic districts is being instantly struck down. Texas Republicans are evil, but they aren't stupid.

3. The constitutional requirement in Art. I, § 2,that Representatives be chosen "by the People of the several States" means that, as nearly as is practicable, one person's vote in a congressional election is to be worth as much as another's.

Representatives are not literally chosen by "the People" but rather by qualified electors.

The House of Representatives shall be composed of Members chosen every second Year by the People of the several States, and the Electors in each State shall have the Qualifications requisite for Electors of the most numerous Branch of the State Legislature.

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1438257150439174153
I imagine this is a strong sign that Texas will deliver for Republicans in congressional redistricting

Let's be honest, how much further can they go? I see net R+1 as the best case scenario for the GOP as they move to take two RGV seats and cede a Dem seat in Austin, but they're pretty close to maxed out and this to me, just indicates they're stupid.

Not really it's really easy to do a 21-10 map. I'll get you started with the D sinks
2 Dallas
3 Houston-Fort Bend
1 Austin-Williamson
1 Austin-Hays
1 San Antonio
1 El Paso
1 RGV

Then you get 19 R seats that are at least Trump+20 and the final 2 are Trump+16 in the RGV

There are 9 districts that are overpopulated by 5% or more. 8 of these are Republican held.

There are 10 districts that are underpopulated by 5% or more. 6 of these are Democratic held.

If you have a Republican seat next to a Democratic seat, what are the likely alignment of the areas along the boundary? They will be more Democrat than the district as a whole.

It makes no sense for a Laredo seat to wrap around into Austin. People in Maverick, Zavala, and Dimmit would prefer to be represented by a senator from Laredo. So we add Guadalupe and Caldwell to SD-19. SD-10 should take more of northern Fort Worth.

[Nyvin]

State Senate map proposal -

https://data.capitol.texas.gov/dataset/plans2101  

https://dvr.capitol.texas.gov/Senate/14/PLANS2101

Looks like 2 D seats in Dallas, 3 in Houston, 1 in Austin, 2 in San Antonio, 1 in El Paso, and I "think" 3 RGV fajita strips?

12 D seats total,  but a lot of seats in Houston and Dallas along with SD-25 won't last the decade.