Biden VP news megathread (pg 286 - been selected, announcement could be today)

[Mr. Morden]

Biden allies and others close to the vice presidential vetting process said California Rep. Karen Bass, the 66-year-old chair of the Congressional Black Caucus, has gained real traction in the late stage of the search. Amid furious last-minute lobbying and speculation about Biden's historic decision, California Sen. Kamala Harris and Susan Rice, Barack Obama's former national security adviser, are also believed to be among the most serious contenders.

Several additional women have also gone through extensive examination by the Biden team, including Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Florida Rep. Val Demings and Illinois Sen. Tammy Duckworth. Others, including Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham have also received various levels of scrutiny by the vetting team.

Biden's team has yet to tell any of the women they've considered in earnest for the vice presidential role that they are officially out of the running, people familiar with the process said, with one source saying 11 women are still formally being considered.

Bass' new emergence as one of the top contenders has been propelled by intensive lobbying on her behalf by some of her colleagues in the House including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, influential California Democrats and top donors.

When Biden told reporters earlier this week that he would choose a running mate in the first week of August, two aides told CNN that the timing of an announcement was more likely to be pushed back until the week of August 10. But Biden's advisers gave him a deadline of next week to make up his mind, a person familiar with the process said.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/31/politics/joe-biden-running-mate/index.html

Yeah, that doesn't sound like we're getting an announcement within the next few days.  I'd guess late next week at the earliest.  Though probably more likely is that Biden decides who the pick is by late next week, and then it's announced early in the week of the 10th.

[Mr. Morden]

So, when are we expecting it now?

Presumably some time in the week of August 10th.  The convention is then the following week, the week of August 17th.

[Mr. Morden]

Days running mates were announced

2016: July 15 (Pence); July 23 (Kaine)

2012: August 11 (Ryan)

2008: August 23 (Biden); August 29 (Palin)

2004: July 6 (Edwards)

2000: July 25 (Cheney); August 8 (Lieberman)

So Biden really isn't that far behind by historical standards.

Why was 2008 so late?

Later Olympics, later conventions.

Yes, but there was also the fact that this was during a fairly brief window of time (I think just 2008 and 2012) when there was a campaign finance incentive to schedule the conventions fairly late.  I think it was because that was when the major party candidates had stopped taking federal matching funds, but were still bound by the ~$2000 individual donation limit or whatever it was, and holding a late convention meant you could stretch out the period of time spending primary $ (since any spending before you were formally nominated could count as primary $), and compress the time spending general election $.  I think now that there are all these outside groups spending $, that's less of an issue.

[Mr. Morden]

Bass was on Fox News Sunday this morning, and talked about being ready to be veep, and also addressed differences between her and Biden over health reform:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-vp-hopeful-bass-regrets-past-castro-comment

“I think anybody that is willing to become vice president, if they’re invited, should be ready and I think that I am,” Bass said.

Bass has a different position on health care from Biden. She is in favor of "Medicare-for-all," while Biden supports having a public option without doing away with private insurance. Bass denied saying that Biden has the wrong idea, while still maintaining that the country should move toward having health care as a right for all.

“No, I don’t think that the vice president is wrong at all,” Bass said. “What I do believe in is that health care should be a right. I think that we should be like the rest of the industrial nations and provide health care. But what I believe specifically is that we need to repair the damage that was done and has been done over the last ten years to the Affordable Care Act. We need to repair the damage, we need to expand that, and then over time we need to figure as a nation, how do we make health care as a right for everyone.”

[Mr. Morden]

More from Bass’s Fox News Sunday interview: Here’s what she said about the Castro comments:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/02/karen-bass-fidel-castro-390413

On “Fox News Sunday,“ the California Democrat faced questions about several visits to Cuba in the 1970s and a statement she released after Castro's 2016 death saying, "the passing of the Comandante en Jefe is a great loss to the people of Cuba.”

Bass told Fox host Chris Wallace that her perspective "developed over time" and that she now understood that the Castro government "was a brutal regime." Bass said she spoke with colleagues from Florida who raised concerns about her comments and that she "would not do that again, for sure."

"I absolutely would have not put that statement out," she said.

She was then asked if this would nonetheless put a political target on her back, to have praised a communist dictator, and she said that any other Democrat would face similar accusations, because Republicans "have decided to brand the entire Democratic Party as socialists and communists."

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like remaining short listers (whoever they may be) were told to be ready for interviews, though they still don’t know if they’ll be in person or not:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/03/biden-vice-president-search-390853

At least some of the contenders were in the dark on Sunday about their upcoming interviews with Biden: They were told to be prepared for in-person sit-downs while at the same time cautioned that could change due to health and logistical concerns surrounding Covid-19.
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On Sunday, a Biden aide maintained that 11 women remain in the mix, despite most of the attention in recent weeks swirling around five women: Harris, Warren, Rep. Karen Bass, Sen. Tammy Duckworth and former National Security Adviser Susan Rice. Aides said Biden has pushed back his planned announcement by a week to next week.

Also:

After a contingent of California officials had also lobbied Biden in favor of Bass, Duckworth and Rice and against Harris, the Biden vetting team held a conference call with Harris allies to hear them argue in favor of her candidacy. A source told POLITICO that Harris was the only potential VP candidate who was afforded such a call, which included all four of Biden's vetting team cochairs.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1290314275974721536

From that story:

Sources close to the selection process and others with knowledge of its deliberations tell NBC News that Biden planned this weekend to drill down on vetting materials with the goal of narrowing the list down to a “three or four” candidates. But several factors stand in the way of a public announcement, which aides say is unlikely to come this week.

One key element, a person involved in the process said, was polling data the campaign was waiting on on each of the potential candidates. Even as the campaign looks to avoid a choice that could prove to be a political liability, the most important ingredient to Biden is having personal chemistry with the choice. Biden then hopes to meet with each finalist — in person if possible, but at least virtually — by midweek.

The final one-on-one meetings are seen as critical for Biden, who is looking to recreate with his choice the same kind of close, trusting bond he shared as vice president with Barack Obama.

Meeting the finalists "by midweek" means these interviews are happening very imminently....maybe even starting today, for all we know.

Also:

Biden advisers do not expect a public rollout until next week at the earliest, and not just because the process remains fluid now that the ball is in Biden’s court. There are still questions to be answered about exactly how and where an announcement would take place, without the traditional kind of rally that in past cycles has served as a launching point for the nominating convention.

Next week “at the earliest”?  I guess that means waiting until convention week itself isn’t being ruled out.

[Mr. Morden]

Now is the time for some enterprising journalists to be tracking the every movement of each of the presumed finalists.  If they are actually going to meet Biden in person, then potentially you can find clues of their travel.  Though veep candidates often tend to be sneaky about this.  Paul Ryan was supposedly on a "family vacation" when he snuck out to meet with Romney back in 2012.

Of course, if the meetings are virtual, then this doesn't apply.  They could be anywhere.

[Mr. Morden]

Now is the time for some enterprising journalists to be tracking the every movement of each of the presumed finalists.  If they are actually going to meet Biden in person, then potentially you can find clues of their travel.  Though veep candidates often tend to be sneaky about this.  Paul Ryan was supposedly on a "family vacation" when he snuck out to meet with Romney back in 2012.

Of course, if the meetings are virtual, then this doesn't apply.  They could be anywhere.

There should be reporters camped outside his Delaware residence day and night.

I guess one thing even we could be doing is watching their Twitter feeds to see if they drop any clues as to where they are.  Do we even know if Harris, Bass, Duckworth, and Warren are in their home states or DC this week?

[Mr. Morden]

Anyways, back on topic. Why is Val Demings getting betting money right now? Did a slew of articles come out for her today? I'm not understanding. Is it because the drop of Karen Bass with her two gaffes and how internally people are trying to sabotage Kamala Harris.

Clyburn said Demings is still being seriously considered.

To be clear, he said he *thinks* she is under consideration:

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/20200803/south-carolina-congressman-says-fla-rep-val-demings-merits-joe-biden-vp-spot

South Carolina Congressman James Clyburn said he has spoken with Biden and his campaign about Demings.

“Val Demings is a tremendous person. I’ve known her for a long time,” he said. “I’ve said that to the vice president and some of his people. I think she is under serious consideration and she ought to be.”

I'm sure Biden greatly appreciates Clyburn's support, but I doubt he (or anyone on the vetting team) is giving Clyburn hourly updates on where the process stands, so it's unclear how "current" this information really is.  Biden supposedly spent the weekend trying to narrow down the list, and it's likely that if we're down to just 3 or 4 names now, only a tiny circle of people know who they are.

(To be clear, I think that *is* the reason for the bump in betting markets for Demings, but I think the market is overreacting.)

[Mr. Morden]

I'm sorry, this is from two days ago so might have already been posted here, but here's another Rendell quote that I found incredible:

https://twitter.com/SawyerHackett/status/1290112742473441280

[Mr. Morden]

I guess Sally Yates is testifying before the Senate Judiciary Committee right now.  I'm not watching it, so I don't know for sure, but Harris is on the Judiciary Committee, and I assume she's there, and so is not being interviewed by Biden right now. 

I'd assume that all of the veep shortlisters in Congress are in DC this week, and since DC isn't far from Delaware, they could sneak away to be interviewed without it being noticed.

[Mr. Morden]

I guess Sally Yates is testifying before the Senate Judiciary Committee right now.  I'm not watching it, so I don't know for sure, but Harris is on the Judiciary Committee, and I assume she's there, and so is not being interviewed by Biden right now. 

I'd assume that all of the veep shortlisters in Congress are in DC this week, and since DC isn't far from Delaware, they could sneak away to be interviewed without it being noticed.

That'll be tough.

Others have done it in the past.  AFAIK, no one is tailing all of the veep contenders 24/7.  They could visit someone local on private property, and then get in someone else's car out of public view, and be driven to Delaware.  How would they be spotted in that circumstance?

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/07/progressives-alarmed-by-rices-vast-investments-392507

When Susan Rice was under consideration for secretary of state in 2012, she was attacked by environmentalists for holding stock in the controversial Keystone Pipeline XL deal.

Now, with the multimillionaire Rice in contention to be Joe Biden’s running mate, that investment is again drawing fire from progressives. They say her extensive past holdings in an array of industries at odds with liberal causes — particularly the Keystone investment — could make her ill-suited to be vice president in a Democratic administration.
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At the time [2012], Rice’s financial disclosures showed that she and her husband — scion of a wealthy Canadian family — owned as much as $600,000 worth of stock in TransCanada, the company that owned Keystone. She held stock in TransCanada and other fossil fuel companies for the entire eight years she served in the Obama Administration.

“The financial disclosure reports reflect at worst a conflict of interest, and at best, an indifference to a perception of a conflict of interest,” said Yasmine Taeb, senior policy counsel at Demand Progress. “It's troubling to see that Susan Rice has invested in so many companies that fuel climate change and in entities at odds with Democratic values."

[Mr. Morden]

So, combining the Whitmer news with the “Biden is currently huddling with family to make a final decision” news, the following propositions seem likely:

1) If Biden is now huddling with those closest with him to make a final decision, then presumably the interviews are over, and he’s not going to be interviewing any more candidates before he decides.

2) Just a few days ago, the reporting was that it wasn’t even clear that he’d be interviewing anyone in person (because of coronavirus concerns).  Since he apparently did interview Whitmer in person though, then presumably he *did* decide to do in person interview with at least a few finalists, out of which Whitmer was one, but presumably there were at least a couple of others.

3) Seems like the Whitmer leak came in part because of flight info, but (as I was saying a few days ago) most of the reported short listers are already in DC (Susan Rice + all the members of Congress), and they could just drive to Delaware from DC, which I assume could be done without attracting as much attention as a flight, and so probably less likely to leak.  OTOH, Grisham and Bottoms are also far enough away that they’d have to fly, so maybe the fact that we haven’t heard about them interviewing means that they didn’t make the final cut?  (Which wouldn’t be a surprise, but I thought I’d mention it nonetheless.)

4) Since Biden was willing to meet with VP finalists in person despite coronavirus, I assume that also means that he’ll be willing to do a joint appearance with the VP selection once announced (in some outdoor venue where they’re 6 feet apart).  If so, then the chances seem high that the decision on who he picked will leak out before he makes an official announcement, just like virtually all recent VP picks have leaked out early in these cases where the announcement is made in person.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/marianne_levine/status/1292855226152751105

Sounds like Harris or Duckworth will have time for a quick trip to Delaware without missing any crucial votes.

I'm assuming they're both still in DC and haven't returned to their home states?  (And ditto for potential shortlisters in the House, like Demings?)

[Mr. Morden]

Also I love how pretty much everybody on that list that's online right now is looking at this thread

This is getting close to Election Night pre-game levels

There should be a live thread for election night. I wasn't here in 2016 but was there one for that election?

Site crashed. I don't think there was much posting here at all for a good chunk of the night. I at least couldn't get on.

Here's the 2016 Election Day thread:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=251683.0

It crashed shortly after 7pm Eastern.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/jonallendc/status/1292941826480050176

[Mr. Morden]

When's the latest ya'll can reasonably see something happened tonight? 8 EST?

maaaaybe 9 but that's pushing it, really  don't think it'll be today

9 is way too early to assume that we won't get any news today.  In 2012, the news broke that it was Paul Ryan at about 11pm Eastern:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=157263.0

And in 2008, news broke that it was Biden when it was almost midnight Eastern:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=81323.0

If Biden were to do the official announcement tomorrow, then based on past precedent, there's a decent chance that it'll leak tonight.

[Mr. Morden]

According to a literal member of the VP vetting team, we're less than 2 HOURS(!!) away from the announcement:

https://twitter.com/dow_lopez/status/1293250784558080001

I don't interpret it that way at all.  The journalist questioning him is the one who floats the 2 hour timeline, not Garcetti himself.  Garretti simply goes along with the premise that an announcement is imminent (and does so in a somewhat jokey manner, with respect to the "is there time to walk the dog?" framing).  But it seems like a reach to say that he's offering confirmation of a 2 hour timeframe.  It's not even clear that Garrett knows when the announcement is coming, other than "soon".  The vetting team has been disbanded, and we don't know who all is in the loop on the exact timing.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1293255927089504256

I feel like if he only just revealed the choice to top advisors *this morning*, then it's still going to be awhile before the announcement is made public.  My hunch is either late-ish tonight or (maybe more likely?) tomorrow.  I'm not totally sure on this, but I would guess that filling in his top advisors is something that would happen *before* he actually calls his choice to make the offer formally, as well as calling the shortlisters he's not picking to tell them that he went with someone else.  Once he makes those phone calls, there's a chance of a leak, and so why would he start doing that before even his top advisors are brought in the loop?

And then, once that's done, it seems like it would take more than just a couple of hours for Biden's campaign and the VP pick to prep the public announcement, and feel like they're all set for the media rollout, no?