2008 State Elections in Austria and Germany

[Tender Branson]

YAY ! If the Left doesn´t cross 5%, it´s SPD-Green and a big defeat for Koch's CDU.

No. If the Left crosses 5%, Koch's political career is over. If it doesn't, Koch can pretend to have been only narrowly beaten, or worse will actually hang on.

Double cliffhanger... the suspense is ing killing me. Good thing I did vote Left in the end - and convinced Marius to do so - , so I won't feel personally responsible if they're out.

EDIT: ARD Lower Saxony:
CDU 44, SPD 29.5, Greens 8, FDP 8, Left 6.5
ARD also has turnout estimates, Hesse 64.5 (that'd be -0.1), Lower Saxony 57.0 (that'd be about -10.0)

According to election.de (and ARD exit poll) the SPD would get 46 seats, the CDU 43, FDP 11 and the Greens 10. A 2-seat majority for SPD-Green. But this will be tight.

[Tender Branson]

Hesse - ARD - 18:14:

SPD: 37,5 (+8,4) - 46 seats (+13)
CDU: 35,7 (-13,1) - 43 seats (-13)
FDP: 9,4 (+1,5) - 11 seats (+2)
Greens: 8,0 (-2,1) - 10 seats (-2)
Left: 4,9 (+4,9)

SPD-Green: 45,5% - 56 seats
CDU-FDP: 45,1% - 54 seats

[Upsilon]

According ZDF, we would have :

SPD 45
CDU 44
FDP 11
Grüne 10

which would mean :

CDU-FDP 55
SPD-Grüne 55

Would we have a big coalition ?
Or a SPD-FDP coalition ?

[minionofmidas]

According ZDF, we would have :

SPD 45
CDU 44
FDP 11
Grüne 10

which would mean :

CDU-FDP 55
SPD-Grüne 55

Would we have a big coalition ?
Or a SPD-FDP coalition ?

I would assume SPD-FDP... it'd take a moment, though.

[minionofmidas]

Breakdown of minor parties (Hesse): NPD 1.2, REP 1.0, FW 0.8, other 1.5

[Hash]

Seats (Election.de)

CDU 43
SPD 46
Green 10
FDP 11
Linke 0

[minionofmidas]

With seven precincts in, Wiesbaden is CDU 40.8, SPD 33.9, FDP 11.1, Green 6.3, Left 4.6... which probably tells you more about these precincts than about the election result.

[Hash]

Go FDP!

[minionofmidas]

12 now, and the result already looks much more like what you'd expect. No precincts in yet in Frankfurt, Offenbach or Kassel.

[Tender Branson]

Hesse - ARD - 18:45

SPD: 37,2 (+8,1) - 45 seats (+12)
CDU: 36,0 (-12,8) - 44 seats (-12)
FDP: 9,3 (+1,4) - 11 seats (+2)
Greens: 8,0 (-2,1) - 10 seats (-2)
Left: 4,9 (+4,9)

CDU-FDP: 45,3% - 55 seats
SPD-Green: 45,2% - 55 seats

[Tender Branson]

Andrea Ypsilanti (SPD) Victory (?) Speech right now.

[minionofmidas]

I spoke too soon, they're just not updating that often. Added 53 precincts (almost 10%) at one go.
Current result CDU 35.8, SPD 34.4, Greens 9.1, FDP 8.4, Left 7.7

[Hash]

Lower Saxony:

CDU 41.8 59
SPD 31.2 44
FDP 8.1 11
Green 8 11
Linke 7 10
Others 3.9

CDU/FDP majority

[minionofmidas]

Offenbach has comparison results up for precincts that are in...
Randomly selecting a precinct in the very downtown (Precinct 3):

 
CDU 21,7%  -24,6% 
SPD 33,8%  +7,4% 
Greens 17,7%  +4,9% 
FDP 10.6% +3,3% 
Left 12.1% +12.1%

[Hash]

Lol CDU

[Tender Branson]

Apparently, The Left is now @ 5% according to ZDF:

SPD: 37,0 - 42 seats
CDU: 36,5 - 42 seats
FDP: 9,4 - 11 seats
Greens: 7,7 - 9 seats
Left: 5,0 - 6 seats

[minionofmidas]

Our first municipalities in...

Haina (Kloster), in North Hesse (Frankenberg? Schwalm-Eder? Somewhere arounds that-a-way, anyhow...)
registered voters 3004
turnout 62.8 (+0.2)
SPD 51.0 (+8.6)
CDU 27.8 (-13.7)
FDP 8.2 (+0.
Greens 4.8 (-0.6)
Left 4.2

Haunetal (Hersfeld area... I think)
registered voters 2473
turnout 70.4 (-2.7)
SPD 43.7 (+8.6)
CDU 34.0 (-16.1)
FDP 8.0 (+2.2)
Greens 4.8 (-0.7)
Left 4.3

Hesseneck (smallest municipality in the state, in its southeasternmost corner)
registered voters 556
turnout 73.2 (-2.4)
SPD 50.6 (+6.6)
CDU 30.3 (-15.0)
Greens 5.9 (-1.4)
Left 5.4
FDP 3.9 (+2.2)

Neuenstein (no idea where that is, although o/c it wouldn't be hard to find out. Obviously Catholic based on the result)
registered voters 2526
turnout 69.8 (-0.2)
CDU 45.0 (-14.9)
SPD 37.8 (+6.5)
FDP 6.1 (+2.3)
Left 3.6
Greens 3.3 (+0.7)

[minionofmidas]

Looks like the SPD took three direct seats of the CDU in Frankfurt - the two predicted on the maps posted above and Ypsilanti's own (in the northeast). Wouldn't call 2, 6 or (for the CDU) 3 (my own ) quite yet though.

CDU just ahead in Offenbach.

[minionofmidas]

Kassel with 48% of precincts in (comparison to same area):
SPD 43.2 (+8.7)
CDU 26.9 (-13.5)
Greens 11.0 (-3.9)
Left 8.3
FDP 7.2 (+0.4)

[minionofmidas]

Frankfurt, 300 precincts:
CDU 34.8, SPD 33.5, Greens 10.5, FDP 10.0, Left 7.0

Precinct just north of my own, which isn't in yet:
SPD 29.9, CDU 24.6, FDP 17.7 (where did that come from?), Greens 12.7, Left 12.3
Where my mom grew up:
SPD 43.8, CDU 23.7, Left 12.4, Greens 9.2, FDP 4.4
Where I grew up isn't in yet, but this is close:
SPD 38.1, Greens 23.1, CDU 19.0, Left 10.0, FDP 6.0
The Lerchesberg, ever the poshest precinct in town (both SPD and Greens over 10... that's an achievement here actually):
CDU 44.2, FDP 28.3, Greens 12.8, SPD 11.2, Left 1.9

[minionofmidas]

Big SPD wins in some usually very strong Green precincts in Bockenheim.

[Tender Branson]

Frankfurt, 300 precincts:
CDU 34.8, SPD 33.5, Greens 10.5, FDP 10.0, Left 7.0

Precinct just north of my own, which isn't in yet:
SPD 29.9, CDU 24.6, FDP 17.7 (where did that come from?), Greens 12.7, Left 12.3
Where my mom grew up:
SPD 43.8, CDU 23.7, Left 12.4, Greens 9.2, FDP 4.4
Where I grew up isn't in yet, but this is close:
SPD 38.1, Greens 23.1, CDU 19.0, Left 10.0, FDP 6.0
The Lerchesberg, ever the poshest precinct in town (both SPD and Greens over 10... that's an achievement here actually):
CDU 44.2, FDP 28.3, Greens 12.8, SPD 11.2, Left 1.9

What Wahlkreis are you living in ? 36 (Frankfurt III) ?

[minionofmidas]

Frankfurt, 300 precincts:
CDU 34.8, SPD 33.5, Greens 10.5, FDP 10.0, Left 7.0

Precinct just north of my own, which isn't in yet:
SPD 29.9, CDU 24.6, FDP 17.7 (where did that come from?), Greens 12.7, Left 12.3
Where my mom grew up:
SPD 43.8, CDU 23.7, Left 12.4, Greens 9.2, FDP 4.4
Where I grew up isn't in yet, but this is close:
SPD 38.1, Greens 23.1, CDU 19.0, Left 10.0, FDP 6.0
The Lerchesberg, ever the poshest precinct in town (both SPD and Greens over 10... that's an achievement here actually):
CDU 44.2, FDP 28.3, Greens 12.8, SPD 11.2, Left 1.9

What Wahlkreis are you living in ? 36 (Frankfurt III) ?

Yeah. Right at its southeastern corner, too.

[minionofmidas]

Bahnhofsviertel and Gutleutviertel in completely... (own calculation, summing precincts and postal vote)

966 460 456 120 157 76 53 41
518 219 205 67 77 11 11 27
861 364 353 64 149 49 23 53
795 407 401 67 153 83 40 50
740 383 377 104 120 49 70 20
- 324 323 127 70 47 42 20
total
3880 registered voters
2157 votes cast (55.6), of which 2115 valid
SPD 726 (33.7)
CDU 549 (25.5)
Greens 315 (14.6)
FDP 239 (11.1)
Left 211 (9.
Compare 2003:
turnout 49.6, SPD 31.2, CDU 29.3, Greens 25.2, FDP 7.6. That's the kind of losses we're seeing in Green stronghold areas. (Result's not perfectly comparable as there's been quite a lot of new construction which is quite posh and very different from the other parts... so that should help the FDP and hurt the SPD, but probably shouldn't affect the Greens much.)

That's in complete contrast to 1999, when the Greens were polling about the same amount statewide but held up reasonably well in the strongholds - rural areas were pretty much below five across the board.

[minionofmidas]

Seen exit poll data...
among those over 60: CDU 48% (-4), SPD 33%
SPD ahead in all other age brackets
CDU down 20 points among under 30s, down 17 points among 45-59 year olds.